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the don

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Posts posted by the don

  1. the independent recently estimated that the true level of inflation is 4%- not the 2% rubbish that the mpc reports on its doctored inflation measures.

    i believe rates will peak between 6% and 7% in 18 months -2years.

    if the mpc dont raise to this rate then i think the bond market will recognise the onset of inflation and a depreciating curencey and gilts will rise.

    i was of the opinion recently that the mpc would keep rates down on browns instructions.

    howver, since the G8 sumit it looks as though central bankers are tightening in tandem

    g brown has also recently made some speeches where he is talking tougher on inflation.

    i think therefore that he may decide to tackle inalation . i am not convinced, but more hopeful then 3 months ago.

    in any event we are going to have a big recession.

  2. this thread was about whether laurejon has moved from the bull to the bear camp. he hasn't answered that and i used to think he was a bull, but his posts have in recent times been very bearish.

    i totally agree with laurejon's analysis of what labour is doing to the uk economy.

    do i believe that another party would do better?

    well, yes.

    the tories were spot on for most of the 1980s .

    they lost the plot a little with the lawson boom and the doomed erm entry.

    however, john major put the wagon back on the wheels.

    i thought at first that labour had taken the right approach.

    however, their suppression of interest rates through the proxy of the rigged mpc , their waste of billions on unreformed public services, the lining of the cronies pockets and the destruction of our enterprise culture is criminal.

    they will pay the price one day and the tories will have to sort it out again.

    i worry for some people who cannot analyse the facts and think for them selves. instead they take the easy path and swallow new labour's lies and propaganda.

    reminiscent of germany in the 1930s.

    the don

  3. i know tha area a lttle having lived in bexhill( well little common actually ) in the late 1980s,

    i moved there with my company .

    i bought a new 3 bed detached for £85,000.

    12 months later i had to move again and my company bridged me. the house had increased to £125,000 in that time!!

    i moved and the house did not sell .

    after nearly 2 years on the market my company took a write down on the house.

    it sold for....£85,000.

    my view is that that part of east sussex is one of the lowest wealth areas in the south east. there are wealthy people who retire from london.

    the local industry pays cr*p wages and the rail links into london are too slow for people to commute.

  4. saw an interesring technical analyisis on bloomberg yesterday.

    in summary the view was that gilts are on an upward trend and should hit 7.5%%n 2-3 years time. this will probably result in mortgage rates of > 8%

    IMHO this is only balancing out the last few years of very low IRS caused by japans zirp and the fidlling of inflation targets by gordon brown.

    i would think that 8% mortgage rates will be a killer for many who have bought property at ludicrous prices in the last couple of years.

  5. i think i know where everyone was today.

    went walking in snowdonia( mynydd mawr) ,came down about 2pm. drove through beddgelert.

    the place wa absolutely heaving.

    never ever seen so many people in this little village.

    and the sun was shining.

    ps for all those who live south of birmingham, snowdonia is in wales and has mountains

  6. this just staves off the day when they go to the wall.

    i will email dubya and suggest that when it goes bust, the US government invests say $20 bn and they get the Phoenix 4 ( from MG Rover) to run the new business until the cash runs out

  7. Realistbear, you spend an impressive amount of time dredging this stuff up. Not that it's not interesting.

    btb

    i would be interested in knowing what you would find interesting.

    this is a hpcrash site with bears and bulls commenting on the situaation and trends.

    most rational people have concluded that the UK hpi is mainlya result of excess liquidity caused by readily available debt, people willing to take on debt and low interest rates.

    i think most of us here( bulls and bears) know that the ,most likely change in sentiment will be when the debt bubble bursts. this might be under its own wieght, but rising interest rates will accelerate it.

    rbs good work in identifying what is happening is an early indicator of the likely trajectory and timing of the turning point.

    if you dont work on facts you might as well go to mystic meg to find out when the market will change trajectory

  8. Bagehot`s Boss is Gordon Brown. He earns £34k and is in line for a nice pension.

    charlie

    what singles out bagehot for this prvilege.

    nearly all of us UK posters fall into teh same category( an employee of gb), either directly or indirectly.

    whilst i may have missed many postings why is bagehot being trolled. ??

    the don

  9. I see that you hail from Blackpol, Homeless

    the north is finally seeing the slowdown that started 2 years ago in the south

    i am also involved in building ( and managment consultancy)

    heavsyside building material sales are pretty dire nationally

    we will shortly see if they pick up in line with the normal seasonal surge at easter, but i suspect not.

    i think the recession is currently confined to the private sector ( retail, manufacturing building and motor trade) and will only hit the public sector once the treasury starts cutting funds.

    the definition of a recession is when you know someone who is unemployed

    a depression is when you are unemployed

  10. the numbers of mortages approved in jan & feb 2006 are a little lower than the approvals numbers of 2003.

    according to bba numbers in 2003 there were 914,000 approvals in 2004 830,000 and in 2005 there were 753,000 approvals

    this correlates with slowing activity.

    average amounts lent increased over that period from £84,000-£132,000 NO surprise there.

    the big question is whether we will return to 2003 volumes or will it stay at 2005 volumes or lower. my guess is that it will dropp if the investors get out, as these prices are unaffordable to many normal purchasers.

    http://www.bba.org.uk/content/1/c4/60/23/stats270705.pdf

  11. I agree that the inability to drop rates last time due to the £ being at the bottom of the ERM band prolonged the recession. Most of the damage in the housing market had been done by 1992 however.

    However last time interest rates were decided by politicians. This time there is some degree of independance and a set target to meet, the inflation level. The BOE would have to risk their hard earned reputation for stablity in these circumstances.

    I think that monetary policy could be constrained should the pound come under pressure due to changes in rate differentials and imported inflation rise, although I concede that this constraint would not be as tight as last time.

    pelican

    the mpc is not really independent.

    gordon brown appoints the 5 lay members and the bank officials will realise that the government will determine their careers.

    gb also sets the inflation target and the way it is calculated.

    this is why he has excluded housing costs.

    if these were really honest politicians and bankers they would target money supply growth rather than a bullsh1t number.

  12. Yandros

    If prices stay absolutely flat, after a time the 8% or so of post tax income taken out as MEW recently must dry up as there is no E left to W.

    Do you think that a 8% fall in net income equivalent to 10-12% fall in gross wages for the whole of the working population would not lead to a recession given 75% of GDP is currently generated from consumer spending.

    The dry up in available MEW would have led to the recession which then led to unemployment, mortage defaults, credit tightening and a house price correction.

    pelican

    spot on

    riser( i think) produces graphs of MEW every quarter.

    if you look at the pattern this time it is the same as the last crash.

    mew has been dropping like a stone for sevarl quarters

    there may be slight upticks buit the drop in mew will take the guts out of our miracle economy.

    then they will find that we cant rebuild on the back of the exterminated manufacturing scetor.

  13. as a non technical, the following may be unrealistic, but i am going to ask anyway, as there seems to be some IT whizzes on this forum with the brains to do it.

    is it possible to download Rightmove's database of properties on a given day and then perform some analysis ourselves, including a test of reasonableness of properties outside 95 % confidence limits?

    any takers?

  14. This is just Irish if you ask me..................

    Reminds me of a Joke,

    Irish Astronauts were set to man a landing on the Sun, NASA officials told them they were crazy, that they would burn up well before they even landed on the Sun.

    The Irish chuckled "See, that's were your wrong!, were going in at night!"

    :ph34r:

    LOL

    or the news report today about irelands biggest aviation disaster.

    A 2 seater light aircraft crashed into a dublin cemetry this afternoon.

    Irish search and rescue teams have so far recovered over 240 bodies and will be digging throughout the night as they expect the death toll to rise further.

  15. Was always under the impression that you coudl not try to barter the price with new builds, will give it a try but have a feeling they will laugh me out of the door.

    no different to any commercial transaction.

    a sale only happens with a wiling buyer and a willing seller.

    the developers are professionals -they build and sell houses every day.

    you will buy a new house at most 3 or 4 times in your life-possibly only 1.

    negotiation is a game of poker.

    he who blinks first loses.

    when houses are in short supply you need to buy more than they need to sell

    it is the othe way round now.

    they will have a bottom line but may breach it if they are behind target.

  16. There is no real opposition tories are a waste of space, liberals bunch of bankers and what are you left with ??

    New Labour (tories indisguise) the party of the working classes

    enoch powell

    totally disagree

    tories are coing back strong.

    nu labours mis management of the economy will be their undoing.

    liberals- also rans

    your avatar namesake had the right policies.

    i dont mean the rivers of blood stuff which was overplayed.

    what i mean is his views on europe and on monetarism.

    well ahead of his time and the best prime minister we never had

  17. RA

    That's brave. I wouldn't bet on it myself!

    the don

    You could argue that the reason that working class people can't afford to live in a scummy ex-council flat now is because Thatcher sold them off cheap to the previous generation. You can only sell off 40 years of post war social housing at a bargain price once. You are however correct that it improved the living standard of that particular generation.

    LTD

    I didn't mean this thread to get into a "Blair is a psychopath" rant. I think the moral of the story is that power corrupts. The tories suffered from it in the 90s and now the labour party seem to be going the same way.

    I don't know what the answer to this is.

    bear goggles

    i agree with selling off council houses to get people off a dependency culture.

    there however, has not been enough social housing built to keep up with demand.

    if enough houses( social and normaL) were being built and without the investor frenzy of recent years, there would be enough housing available for all.

    affordable to buy for those that want to buy and affordable to rent for those without the desire to buy .

    at the moment there is no choice for many.

    i agree thsa power ultimately corrupts many.

  18. It kind of makes you wonder what Nu Lab really stand for and if they have any convictions when senior members are associated with one of the most corrupt and right wing governments in Europe.

    Isn't Silvio one of Tony's mates as well?

    i think this is the serious point.

    the tories were branded as only being interested in the midlde/ upper classes. i think that was incorrect because i believe that thatcherism was successful at improving the standards of the poorest, whilst having not fully turned around the problems from the socialisy 1970s.

    labour used to be for the working class, but these are the people who have gained least from browns economic miracle

    they have transferred millions from unemployment benefit to incapacity benefit or "schemes" that achieve nothing.

    the working classes now cannot afford to buy even desperate ex council homes and depend totally on social housing or the private rented sector.

    meanhwile the jowells and the rest of the cronies enjoy swish lifestyles.

    and still the working class voted them in again!!( or didnt vote them out)

  19. we are lucky to have tony bair as pm .

    remember how he promised to be whiter than white and end the tory sleaze?

    well in comparison the hamiltons story ref mohamed al fayed and various sex scandals now look quite tame.

    i think nu labour studied tory sleaze and decided that they would beat the bues at the sleaze game.

    mind you can you think of one promise tony has ever kept?

    trust me.. saddam hussein has wmd that can be deployed against brtitain in 45 minutes

    trust me gordon i will step aside soon and let you have the yellow jersey

    trust me our 3 priorites are .. education, education, education

    trust me we've ended boom and bust

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