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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by BelfastVI

  1. 15 hours ago, zamo said:

    Thank you.

    Is this from the UUJ report?

    no the NIRPPI which records all sales. whilst it is most accurate I would say the lows were somewhat lower than they should as they included sales for partly built houses that needed say £30k spent to make them habitable. so the actual increase in prices to today may not be as much as shown.

  2. 9 hours ago, darkmarket said:

    So we have UU saying -1.1% and NI HPI saying +3.1%, with UU saying sales volumes are highest in a decade and NIRPPI have them down on last year and just waiting on some data. Is this the time lag in the NI HPI model?

    No the NIRPPI are saying total sales Volume for Q2 2017 is up 5% on the same period last year. It says the New Build figure is down but warns that this figure is not yet correct. something to do with data from the valuation office. New build is only 14% of total sales volume. The overall volume for 2016 is an increase of 4% on 2015.

    The NIRPPI is always the most accurate of the two but is also a quarter behind. 

    From our own point of view we have increased volume substantially but prices have remained fairly static over the last 12 months.

  3. 4 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

    Please do - I'm in a similar situation. I'd like to own but prices are ridiculous at the moment with not much of quality available, and are due a dip.

    Wish I bought 5 years ago, didn't expect the bounce back we had.

    you were talking people out of buying then. but it was not easy to buy at that stage and very few did.

  4. 51 minutes ago, Habeas Domus said:

    It is hard to interpret those numbers, at face value far fewer people are borrowing >80% LTV
    but then you have to remember houses have gone from being 50% over valued to 100% over valued.

    In other words it might look like the banks are in a better place to survive a housing collapse but I'm not so sure.
    A 30% crash from todays valuations is no problem
    A crash right back to 30% below 2007 valuations, could have major banks failing again.

    Here in NI we are 40% below 2007 values.

  5. 1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    +1. Expansion of credit has been driving prices for decades now. MMR removed self certification but it hardly matters when you can easily borrow 6 times joint income easily enough. 

    That's 6 times income. Not earnings. 

    Can you show me where you can easily borrow 6x joint income.

  6. 1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    I'll call balls to that. 

    You've never sold a house to someone in receipt of child benefit? Tax credits? 

    Every household you've sold to is either childless or one member of that household earns 60k+?

    See its about clarity. I have no idea what the CML dataset looks like. Nor do you. 


    In the absence of clarity. I'll take the NIRPPI. 4.5 times household income is credit bubble territory. It's not a healthy figure going forward. There's zero room for pension provision there. Christ to buy the state pension at 69 you'd need a 250k pot. How do you expect a household buying at 32 on a 30 year mortgage at 4.5 times earnings to save a pension? It's not possible for most. Something will give. 

    I meant unemployed and on benefits but take your point.

    Don't know what you have against the CML Reports.

    What I want is people to enter retirement owning their house outright. 

  7. 1 hour ago, The_Equalizer said:

    Still doesn't make them in any way cheap though. The trouble being how many buyers look beyond what it will cost them each month? In this incredibly low interest rate environment the risks are obvious.


    Personally I do believe the houses are reasonably priced. the surprising thing is perhaps the fact that I would like to see them that way.

    Yes one has to be careful about basing their decision on some 2 year teaser rate. I always tell people to go for 5 year fixed repayment loans. I would like to see as many people as possible obtaining home ownership well before they retire from working.

  8. On 01/08/2017 at 0:48 PM, 2buyornot2buy said:

    Wooo. I never suggested that. 

    Just stating the "lengths" people have to go through to borrow 6 times joint income. Scan a p60 and some bank statements. Hardly arduous now is it?

    I was also pointing out that benefits count as income. 

    We're maybe not at self certification levels of reckless lending. But it's still pretty reckless. 



    The CML reports the loans at to be no where near the 6 times house hold income you refer to. Scanning your official record of your previous years income is not difficult at all. perhaps obtaining that job might be.

    I don't believe I have ever sold a house to a person on benefits. 

    I don't believe the lending criteria can be described as reckless. it was in the boom but there has been massive changes since then, much needed. in Ni we have either the lowest or one of the lowest loan to income ratios in the UK and amongst the lowest house prices to go with it.

  9. 14 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    In fairness the op, who hasn't come back was talking about stocking up on BTL. Why you'd post on HPC about starting BTL empire I'm not sure. 


    You're right about the earnings. The bank asks for p60s. Unfortunately those earnings include tax credits and child benefit. So banks would also let me borrow 6 times joint income. I would have had to have gone to great lengths to get it. 

    3 pay slips and a p60. 2 utility bills. 

    Can you imagine trying to scan those 15 pages. Probably would have taken at least 15 minutes. 

    You seriously believe people are forging P60's and pay slips to borrow money. 

  10. On 28/07/2017 at 6:27 PM, darkmarket said:

    Millions of BTL mortgages are functioning thanks to housing benefit, I don't see what you mean by this.

    If their income assessments are honest.

    Does this include equity release loans?

    We are talking here about FTBers and others buying homes to live in and the associated mortgage they will need. Buy-to-Rent is a whole different ball game.

    Long gone are the days of self assessment mortgages and good ridance to them, Anyone who has applied for a mortgage in the last 8 years can tell you the lengths you have to go to to document your claims of earnings and rightly so.

    Hav'nt heard of equity release for quite some time. I doubt it.

  11. 1 hour ago, yadayada said:

    That's the median. What's the average?

    from the document

    "The mean and the median measure different things and either can be appropriate depending on what the user is trying to measure. The mean measures the average amount earned by individuals, but in a skew distribution such as earnings this measure is susceptible to small numbers of very high earners. The median measures the amount earned by the average individual, i.e. the level of earnings above which half the population fall. Please note that changes in median values for sub sectors of the population are not necessarily additive at the population level."

  12. 3 hours ago, darkmarket said:

    This leaves you forced to say the private housing market is only there to serve above average earners, and depend on the floor under the market set by housing benefit.

    The average is only £124k, that's hardly much lower. Which would make sense given how much the market depends on that false floor of housing benefit, and how little equity's available to leverage for non-FTBs due to the state of the market.

    The private house market acts in a similar way to the resale market in providing houses to the open market i.e whoever the purchasers are.

    I think it is safe to assume that those on the lowest quartet of income struggle to gain home ownership. Housing Benefit will not contribute to mortgage repayment and therefore not a factor for purchasers of houses. 

    I have now looked at the recent CML report for NI The average borrowing of FTBers is £95k against an average FTBer household income of £31k. The resale market seen an average loan of £115k against an average household income of £46k

    CML May 2017 Report

  13. 4 hours ago, yadayada said:

    Don't forget those on below average incomes will in many cases never be in the housing market. Therefore the average house ought to be somewhat cheaper than those bought by the average owner occupier.

    Need to get my head around this.

    if we step back and see that only c62%of households in NI are in private ownership (ownership has been falling which worries me). whilst there are many examples to the contry we can assume that this 62%, in general is taken from the 60% of higher earners. therefore, if this is true the average income of house owners would be above the average income of the general population. not what we want in society but it is perhaps fairly safe to assume.there are plenty of examples of people on higher income who choose to rent and again plenty of examples of people who were given mortgages who income is now not (and perhaps never was) in the higher 60% of the population.

  14. 3 hours ago, yadayada said:

    Don't forget those on below average incomes will in many cases never be in the housing market. Therefore the average house ought to be somewhat cheaper than those bought by the average owner occupier.

    it doesn't appear to work that way. in general it is people on higher income (average or above) that buy houses. I guess its the same for cars but to a much lesser extent. Again the house price to income ratio is only relevant to a first time buyer. The bank dont look at the price to earnings but the loan to earnings ratio, amongst many other things.

    The average FTber house price is much lower than the average house price. CML give a good breakdown of this. I cant remember the figure but it is around £110k to £120k.


  15. 5 hours ago, darkmarket said:

    I'm not clear where this £25k average salary comes from.

    According to NISRA, the median salary for an employee in NI is £393 / wk or £20,436pa. The employment rate is 70%.

    Annual earnings:

  16. 6 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    I don't think a 950 sq foot new build with a 20sq meter "garden" should be an average house. It's what builders have made as the average house. 

    It's a bit like what we we've saw with food for the past 30 years. Look at chocolate bars. Size has gradually reduced and ingredients replaced with lower quality equivalents.I see the same thing happening with house. Much smaller footprint. But oh look, these are so energy efficient and have 8 toilets. 



    The private house builders are building houses that are much larger than the council houses of the 50's that we are replacing. 

  17. The UB did a bit of a number here. even though prices were increasing they carried out their own valuations and wouldn't disclose them to the builder or house owner. As you could imagine some builders were a bit niffed. We had a number of them but just let it go as 'that ship had sailed'. However I am not at all surprised that some builders are having a go at this. It would have been O so simple to have an independent valuation produced and made available to all parties.

    In many of the cases the prices didnt rise by the 5% that would have allowed the builder his money back but again UB couldn't be straight about it. Therefore all the purchasers get the builders deposit.


    The product was available on almost all of the active sites the UB were lenders on regardless of the financial status of the builder.

  18. On 2017-4-29 at 1:36 PM, carrick01 said:

    New apartment development on the Ormeau road - portland 88 - prices starting from £160k (for 1 bedroom).  Seems a bit high when you can get 3 bedroom apartment nearby for £90k.


  19. On 24/04/2017 at 6:15 PM, 2buyornot2buy said:


    The FCA provide the data for the entire UK market for all regulated mortgages.  This will give you an example of how good data looks like. 





    Good find and you are right the data indeed looks nice.

    What I can find from a quick glance at the Regulated Mortgages (2016)  is that aprox

    37% of mortgages are taken out by people on single income (higher than I thought)

    63% of mortgages are taken out by people on joint incomes

    86% of single income applicants have an income multiple of less than 4. (no break down on what the multiple of the other 14% other than >4)

    63% of joint income applicants have an income multiple of less than 3. (no break down on what the multiple of the other 37% other than >3)

    No break down, that I could see in FTB'ers and movers and no average for the income multiple that I could see in my quick glance.

    However with 86% of single borrowers below a ratio of 4  and with 63% of joint income borrowers below 3 you can hazard an attempt at an average income multiplier.

    Edited to remove typo

  20. 13 hours ago, yadayada said:

    The income of a single person is the same as the household income. With a couple, buyer income and household income are usually not the same, and therefore on average very different. This has to be made clear in their methodology.

    It also means household income has to be the more reliable metric. There's no rebate for those buying alone.

    I am not sure I understand the difference. One person on £40k is the same as two people on 20k each. there will be some difference in tax and allowance and expenditure for two people or a family of five will be obviously different. all these factors are taken into account in taking a mortgage but are separate from the crude ratio of income to mortgage.

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