Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

BelfastVI

Members
  • Posts

    3,413
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by BelfastVI

  1. was surprised recently when looking at Ormeau  and Ravinhill area at how the prices have come up. (Sadly I have no sites in that area).

    It is also amazing what a few streets can mean.

    one side of the Methodist playing fields are at £85k on the other over £300k.

  2. 22 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    That's exactly it. 

    We don't operate a pay as you use tax system. Rates pay for a wide variety of services. It's not just council services. 

    There's no cap on tax on earned income. Why should there be one on unearned income. 

    The cap acts as a subsidy. 

     

     

    if you earn income from your property i.e rent it out you are taxed on that apart from that one bedroom thing

  3. 22 hours ago, yadayada said:

    It's a wealth tax, and as is often said, one that can't be evaded since mansions cannot be smuggled out to the Cayman Islands or similar.

    Youre in favour of a cap on income tax?

    Dont see rates as a wealth tax.

    Happy with income tax to exclude those most in need and then step up. I don't think there is a cap on income tax.

  4. 19 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

     

    Did you miss the rest of my post? I edited it soon after posting.  

    Sorry you edit wasn't up when I posted.

    The owner of the £100k house is getting the same services, street lighting, bin collected etc as the person in the £800k house. Yet the owner of the £800k house is paying many times more.

    Could you imagine having to pay more for other items such as your food, electricity etc based on the value of your house.

    I am not complaining about the rates system, thats the way it has been set up. It is similar in England with their council tax. However I think they make allowances for the number of people in a house.

     

     

  5. Are you comparing the current sales price with the LPS estimated Rates value?

    If so I would be careful. The Rates value was an estimate of the value of the property and back dated to 1 Jan 2005 (I think thats the date). LPS employed 100's of people to do this, many without any experience with the result many properties are over valued and many are undervalued.

    No body really takes much notice of it. If it has been undervalued you pay lower rates.

  6. 15 hours ago, Thorn said:

    I didn't expect to see this-

    Bangor Spectator free paper- the Extra- has an article today about 2/3 through reporting that despite more transactions, houses are selling for 10% less in North Down from Q1 to Q2 2017.

    Not the usual HPI ramping sort of stuff the NIrish papers usually put out...

    when prices were falling (which they did for years) there was plenty of both good and poor articles on falling prices. I think in general the media are now more careful in just reporting the facts of what ever report has been released. 

    I have no doubt we will see stories on falling prices in London reported as if its happening here when the time comes. I put that down to laziness more than anything.

  7. 14 hours ago, Thorn said:

    No these have been reductions in asking prices. Go on yourself and have a look. 

    Haven't used Zoopa before so may not be looking at same thing as you. When I search Banger under Market activity, either over 3mths, 12 mths or indeed last 5 years it shows an increase in prices.

    I don't see a specific option or tab for asking prices so perhaps I am missing something. I would be interested in this.

  8. On 30/08/2017 at 2:30 PM, darkmarket said:

    Because he got a valuation?

    A few is not fifteen in any case. What is the point of this post exactly.

    In fairness he said he got planning a few years ago.

    However he also said at the start "this site is his only asset" and then later "its not his only land".  So we should pay little attention to this.

  9. On 01/09/2017 at 8:39 PM, Thorn said:

    I check Bangor on Zoopla fairly regularly and I go to Sort By... Most Reduced. Its been pretty steady this last year showing a whole lot of houses just sitting there with either no reductions, in some cases for well over a year and not shifting or reducing, but there seem to be a lot of reductions out there in the 5-10% bracket.

    If you expand the search area you seem to get the same as far as Newtownabbey, Newtownards similar too. Lots of stuff seems to be either just sitting there, or Sold (with SSTC in tiny letters you can hardly read) signs going up then quietly taken down.

    My instinct is there's not a lot of movement out there.

    If so it must only have happened in the last quarter as the most recent NIRPPI Report aint showing it.

  10. Yes, if he sells the site he is liable for tax after allowances.

    The allowance, from memory is around £9,500 (if he has no other CG in that tax year).

    As stated above the only exception is if you have used it as your main residence for 3 years, therefore having to build a house.

    There are plenty of people out there who would love to have to pay tax on property they bought a few years ago. Count yourself lucky.

  11. 13 minutes ago, whome_yesyou said:

     

    Thanks for that @BelfastVI. Looking at the graph, it does look like they keep the same trend historically. However more recently, looking at the graph from 2015 Q1 the trend is differing between the two results; UU shows that prices are stagnating and now on a downward trajectory, while NIRPPI appears to be climbing in that same timeframe - I find that really odd.

    From Q1 2015 to now both reports show an overall increase albeit at different rates.

    The UUJ is more erratic ie in Q1 2015 the UUJ shows a -7% in the quarter only to reverse this with a +8% in Q3 of that year and followed that two quarters later with a -6%. I don't believe prices swung in that fashion and the NIHPI, which captures actual sales shows it didn't.

    I am not trying to argue one over the other. The NIRPPI shows pretty well what has happened up to now (enen though I nit pick on the data it includes) but the UUJ may well be correct in predicting what is going to happen next.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the next quarter reports are reversed.

  12. 2017 Q2 NIRPPI.pdf

    I have overlaid the two set of results from NIRPPI and UUJ. 

    At face value they look reasonably reflective however;

    From Peak to Bottom:

    NIRPPI -56% (£224k to £99k)

    UUJ -48% (£250k to £130k)

    From Bottom to Current (Q2 2017)

    NIRPPI +30% (99k to £129k)

    UUJ + 14% (£130k to £148k)

    From Peak to Current

    NIRPPI -43% (224k to £129k)

    UUJ -41%  (250k to 148k)

     

    NIRPPI show both a larger drop in price and a subsequent larger increase than the UUJ. I recall at the time not being happy with the NIRPPI for their use of 'any sale' in their data regardless of the need for many of the houses to be half built or in need or major repaired. I was present at some of the auctions at the time seen the stock.  I believe the inclusion of this data give a lower dip at the bottom and is therefore exaggerating the recovery somewhat. This may account for the difference.

    I would also say that, from looking at the graph, the UUJ has more ups and downs from 2015 onward, where they show larger increases only to correct the next quarter. The NIRPPI appears to take a smoother path.

  13. 6 hours ago, darkmarket said:

    Yes.

    You don't get to pretend you're in support of a reasonable market on the one hand, and then push HPI at every turn.

    Look at how these figures were reported when the UU negatives were ignored, not even bothering to warn the market that all the data available suggests a correction is underway. You did exactly the same.

    You know very well I'm talking about bulk datasets of individual transactions free for public consumption, as in the rest of the UK.

    The correction in the market is crystal clear and your posts are just another cog in the wheel desperately trying to find greater fools with this 'everything is fine' fantasy.

    I don't push HPI. indeed the new build market as 14% of the whole market is in no position to push anything. The other 86% of the Market, or rather the price they sell at will dictate the direction. All the 'data' available shows prices increasing, albeit at a decreasing rate. The RICS only measures sentiment of agents (very useful but not hard data). The UUJ measures from a small sample i.e. incomplete data. I view both these reports as lead indicators of what is currently happening. We will have to wait to see the prices this current activity completes at and then look at both price and volume in the next NIRPPI report. 

    I thought the UUJ and RICS reports did get fair coverage. The fact that the NIRPPI figures didn't support them perhaps lessened their impact and confuses the media and the public. If the next NIRPPI report confirms the direction you, the RICS and the UUJ believe the market has headed then I am quite sure the media will report that.

    My posts here are for a very small audience and there is no attempt to sell anything. just discussing a topic I am very interested in. My and indeed everyone else's  comments here will have zero impact on the NI Housing Market.

    I don't claim 'everything is fine' and have stated previously that Brexit has yet to really hit. it has had an impact on the commercial market but apart from a two or three months lull after the vote has had little impact on the housing market. 

    One thing we should all agree on is there is nothing 'crystal clear' about the housing market or the direction it is heading. 

  14. 1 hour ago, darkmarket said:

    The lag means the data doesn't cover the period readers might expect, and media portray. To that extent, you'd expect the NI HPI to turn negative in turn.

    It's a problem because the misrepresentation causes people to think the market isn't falling now, when according to the more recent data it is.

    Obviously we need individual sales data like the rest of the UK and I'm sure developers have been lobbying for that transparency.

    This NIPRRI is the most recent Data 'from completed transactions'. it is just the same as is available in the reports in England. The UUJ and RICS Reports comment on live sales or reservations in the most recent quarter. these sales may or may not complete and if they do they will be picked up in the following NIRPPI Report.

    We cannot claim that the NIRPPI is 'misrepresenting' the market. it is actually accurately reporting what actually took place in regards to actual completed transactions. If there is a 'falling market' then that will be picked up and reported in the next NIRPPI Report.

    The UUJ Report reported price falls in Q1 2016 from their sample. The NIRPPI in Q2 2017, when using all data from completions showed an increase which would indicate the UUJ report to be less accurate 'this time'. However, as you say the next NIRPPI report could turn negative. With Brexit breathing over our shoulders one would not be surprised if that was the case.

    Individual sales data is available although not as conveniently as in other parts. To gauge the trend you have to look at the overall data and the most accurate is from actual completions. 

  15. On 16/08/2017 at 10:20 AM, darkmarket said:

    If the time lag is causing them to not identify a move into negative numbers until two quarters afterwards, all the hedonic regressions in the world won't make your index very useful.

    The lag only means they are accurately reporting the sales activity of the previous quarter. Their report (not mine) didn't move negative as the prices, as recorded in Land Reg increased. 

  16. 50 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said:

    http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2000510-economists-explain-why-our-economy-crashes-every-18-years/

    "Harrison predicts the midcycle recession will hit in 2019, and the current property market will peak in 2026 with a severe financial crisis on its heels."

    Later in the article Amar Manzoor said, "When the midcycle recession hits in 2019, he said, “the effects will be catastrophic as the recession bites as deep as the 2008 crisis."

    And when the full 18-year cycle comes to an end in 2026, Manzoor said the “un-payable mortgages, catastrophically high house prices, and unsustainable land prices will lead to the greatest collapse in the history of mankind.”

    Gulp!

    I have also been reading that drinking is bad for my health. So I have decided to give up reading.:lol:

    Certainly see signs from Dublin and certainly London that the madness is starting again.

  17. 11 hours ago, carrick01 said:

    This is a report for the whole of northern Ireland just publish today and also on the residential property price index thread at the top

    https://www.finance-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/dfp/NI HPI statistics report Quarter 2 2017.pdf

    Uses Quarter 1 2015 as a baseline. Look at the table on page 7.

    Lowest quarter was Q1 2013 according to these stats.  We would be around 28% above this figure.

     

    On Page 7 The Q1 2013 Standardised Price was £97,428. Q2 2017 the Price is £128,650, a difference of £31,224 or 32%

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.