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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by BelfastVI

  1. 4 hours ago, Habeas Domus said:

    The cost to build is very cheap

    typical house build

    building costs £30 K
    Land 170 K
    Builders/Agents profit £50K
    Help to Buy (Bung) = £ 25K

    Total price to punters = £275 K

    You walk around many modern estates the car parked outside cost more than the house build.

    This is why it is such a no brainer for the govt. to build council housing if they can get some cheap land and grant themselves planning permission for it. That probably won't happen though, more likely will be a huge bung to the big building companies allowing them to offload badly built estates they can't sell on the market.

    No you cant build a house for £30k. Can you find anything to back that claim up?

  2. 21 hours ago, afly said:

    I'm always sceptical of EA's saying this anyway.

    But I honestly have never heard EA's stating this before and I have been in this game for many many years. God knows they always have something to complain about but this appears to be a new issue.

  3. 21 hours ago, afly said:

    Reasons not to put house on market off the top of my head

    - Stamp duty & other fees
    - Bigger rungs (jump up to the next "class" of house bigger than ever. 100k per bedroom etc)
    - Personal debt levels hurting mortgage options
    - Uncertainly (don't want to risk neg equity on their new purchase)

    I'm always sceptical of EA's saying this anyway. High prices seems good on a % basis but they will make a lot more money in a high volume environment. At the end of the day houses being built is new products for these guys to sell.

    Some areas of the country are deffo under housed, but those areas have often plain just run out of room. On the wider picture I'm not so convinced it's the case personally.

    But these Reasons would also have existed two or three years ago when the EA's shelves were bursting with properties - wouldn't they?

  4. 20 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:


    Propertynews has around 2000 active listings for Belfast. That's around 6 months of sales. Is that low? If I worked in a factory with 6 months inventory, I'd be rather unhappy. 


    I recall we used to look at the amount of listings on property news years ago. If anyone has that data it might be useful to compare to see if there is anything to this.

  5. We have discussed this before but it is something that I don't fully understand.

    Irish News 1st Nov 2017 Belfast is fastest moving market in the UK

    The report is produced by some organisation that I never heard of but it is repeating what I have been hearing for months now that Estate Agents or complaining of lack of listings. 

    I can understand in a falling market people deciding to stay put. for whatever reason fewer people are placing their houses on the market. Is it uncertainty over brexit etc, fear of future interest rate increases I don't know. 

    The impact of this is we have more people chasing lower stock and stock they perhaps wouldn't normally consider. This is not good for the market.

  6. On 26/10/2017 at 9:45 AM, whome_yesyou said:

    I’m a bit confused, the next NIRPPI is realased on 15th November. Is this just a rehash of what was released from the last NIRPPI report, which was released a couple months ago?

    Yes I believe it is the same figures. Only benefit is they show a comparison with the other regions of the Uk whilst using the same model so we should be comparing apples with apples.

  7. On 17/10/2017 at 4:55 PM, willie said:

    It was on the MSE northern ireland forum.  I take it you are saying then that no builder in Northern ireland got involved in shared equity to sell houses to the unwary?

    I was simply pointing out that the post was relating not to our NI Co-ownership scheme but to some shared equity scheme in England. 

  8. 22 hours ago, ravedave said:

    That is steep for there!  What was the peak up there at 07?

    I read an article that Interest Rates will be rising sooner rather than later (before the end of this year).  Any chances of that cooling things off a bit?

    It keeps being said on here about rises can't last and that the property is overpriced.  Is there a danger of wishing for something that won't happen and "missing the boat".  Is there any reason for a rate rise and Brexit to lower prices?

    In fact, is it possible that a potential different Brexit deal for NI to GB would actually result in a rise or continuation of the current trend?





    No matter what way the  Brexit negotiations go I cannot see any outcome that would help to improve the NI economy and/or cause an increase in house prices apart from cost plus inflation which is not good for anyone.

    House price inflation in NI has been very low over the last few years and I don't see that increasing. There is a shortage in supply and I don't see that changing either and unfortunately that will be an upward pressure on both house prices and land prices but it is simply impossible to say what impact the various pressures have on actual prices 1, 2 or 3 years ahead.

  9. 19 hours ago, willie said:

    Yes what could go wrong with co-ownership.  Lets ask some homebuyers  from 2009. Mortgage  75% share builder 25% share.  Builder goes bust and now





    That is a private shared equity scheme in England and not to be confused with Co-ownership in NI.

    But if builder goes bust and there is no proper warranty provider in place then the same issues would arise whether you owned 75% of the house or 100%

  10. On 02/10/2017 at 10:41 AM, houseface2000 said:

    Yes I also find it odd that people are temped into the market when prices rise substantially. Makes no sense when they have an onward purchase. I sold and bought in the froth of the market not fun, a flat or falling market is much easier. 

    it is always difficult to buy in a falling market and indeed even when it's at the bottom (although only hindsight shines light on that). Lenders, valuers and indeed friends are quick to talk people out of it. The same goes for the stock exchange.

  11. On 02/10/2017 at 10:43 AM, 2buyornot2buy said:

    No you're a prospective seller. Even better, you're the man they make money from. 

    Things are so good, we can't get enough to sell. We're soooo good we sell everything. I wish we had more to sell because we're so damn good selling houses. 


    You get the jist



    But if you read my post you will have noticed that I said this is only a recent complaint about a lack of re-sale stock. I heard plenty previously about how bad the market was from the Agents but this is relatively recent and it is one I don't fully understand.

    Also new build is only about 15% of the market. The other 85% of the market is resales that's where 85% (and perhaps more) of their income comes from. 

  12. On 26/09/2017 at 5:53 PM, 2buyornot2buy said:

    They operate a commission business model based on number of house sales....

    If they said anything else I and their babk manager would question their business acumen. 



    I am not a perspective purchaser. I have spent enough time talking to them about the market over the last 10 years and listened to a lot of gloom about little selling.

    When they tell me they have a problem getting stock I believe them. It confuses me though as to the reason. Are people waiting to prices rise further before they place their house on the market? as we all know dangerous tacit and the house they intend to move to will also go up or down with the market.

    I think people act at a subconscious level on matters like this and are perhaps awaiting thing re brexit to settle down before making big decisions. they could be waiting quite a while.  

  13. 3 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    The amount to be collected in rates is fixed.

    The amount is effectively divided amount the total number of rates payers. 

    I can't answer that because I don't know if the total number of payers is pre or post rates relief. 



    it has to be pre as assessment of ability to pay is ongoing.

  14. 16 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    What we have is a textbook subsidy and a few irrelevant arguments why it's not a subsidy. 


    We have  a tax with a scale and a cap. The result is a subsidy for anyone above the cap. Pure and simple. Like I said, simple economics. 

    Throwing an argument in about service utilisation when the tax is based on asset value is irrelevant.


    In that case do you agree that the rates payer is also subsiding those who get taxpayer assistance in paying the rates.

  15. On 25/09/2017 at 3:20 PM, yadayada said:

    How did such a tax break ever make it to the statute books without any real protest? What sort of government have we? It's scandalous. 

    pointless argument as that's the way rates work. we pay tax on our income and on inheritance over a certain level (you could call that a tax break too).

    we as taxpayers subsidies many things - social housing, education, public transport etc, etc and in general we all accept that.

    Look at it this way. Two people on equal income (or retired for that matter) in two similar houses but different locations pay different amounts for the same council services. One paying say £600 and one paying the max. 

    It is my view the person paying the max amount is subsiding the person paying £600. It is your view that the person paying the £600 is subsiding the person paying the max for the exact same service. 

    we have a different view on this point and we will just have to leave it at that. 


  16. On 25/09/2017 at 3:54 PM, rattusrattus said:

    I suppose there was a fair bit of that as well. I know there was some kind of mini-recession (don't ask me I know nothing about economics) in the '70's that meant first time buyers could pay their mortgages off quicker. I just struggle to see how people in that stage of their life now are so quick to take out mega mortgages when they could buy something more humble.

    Incidentally I'm looking at buying in the Upper Ormeau. I estimate there are around 1000-2000 dwellings in the area, and there may be only fifty properties for sale right now. This strikes me as quite low, so it got me to thinking is there a typical percentage of Belfast houses that 'should' be on sale in a given month? Obviously there's no right or wrong answer to this, just an observation that I thought the market would be more busy, regardless of whether the sales are at high or low value.

    Good question. When I am looking at an area to buy a site the lack of 'for sale' signs is generally taken as a good sign for the area. 

    If we look at NI there are 720,000 or so houses. about 130,000 of them are NIHE or HA's so that leaves aprox 600,000 private houses. there are about 20,000 sales per year so that is 3.3%

    before the crash this was higher, peaking at about 40,000 sales (6.6%). Therefore  about 5% might be about average.. Those estimates are over the whole 12 months so you could take a lower % for a snapshot at any one time.

    2,000 : 4%  should be about 80 houses for sale at any one time. but thats only a guess. the agents tell me they cant get enough resale stock at the moment.

  17. its not really a wealth tax as there are very wealthy people living in modest houses and some normal people, retired teachers etc who's family home has boomed in value over the years through no fault of their own. The cap was put in place, as it is in England to avoid excessive rates charge due simply to the location of your property.

    There is a lower threshold, where people under a certain income can obtain Rates relief or assistance (tax payer picks up part of bill). You could claim the rest of us are subsidising in that situation too but that would be simply unfair. equally there is a cap at the top end to avoid the over charging of rates due to location. This cap can be adjusted from time to time.


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