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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by BelfastVI

  1. I don't necessary agree. Farrow & Ball wonk cost you an extra £100k. it may cost you an extra £100 over the cheapest B&Q paint. Present a house at its best can get an extra party or two bidding, may get a higher price and a quicker sale. If you are selling your Gran's house and it has its 1970's makeover still in place you will suffer, I would say by more than it would cost to do it up. But that's just my opinion and there will always be exceptions. The second hand car lot don't use all that turtle wax for nothing.
  2. Q4 2017 NIRPPI Report Link Quarterly Change +1% Annual Change +4.3%
  3. Well I have lots of doubts that there are any streets or areas anywhere near the mad 2007 prices. but more than happy to be proved wrong.
  4. We are a long long way from 2007 prices and I certainly hope it stays that way. From the last NIRPPI Report we are still over 40% (over £90k in average) below the prices of 2007.
  5. Generally when houses are cheaper in one area than another it is for a reason. There are some lovely areas of west and north Belfast and parts of the Antrim Road were once what the Malone Road (South Belfast) is now. However it is priced accordingly.
  6. You normally can get the price from Land Reg. This is all online in the rest of the UK but Willie says we are behind the times here. I wouldn't credit the MLA's with anything here that would be crediting them with actually taking action. I understand it is the cost of implementing a complete new system. The multi, multi million (useless) Land Web system they took 10 years to implement wont do this and I imagine they are too embarrassed to admit that they spent a fortune on a useless and outdated system. I don't think more of our MLA's here own property that the rest of the UK. Indeed the opposite might be the truth.
  7. I think today's NIRPPI report includes a statistical blip. Newbuild didn't increase 18% in one quarter and this increased the overall figure by 2%. I expect this to correct itself next quarter so we are, in my opinion, looking at 4% pa increase rather than 6%. Supply of housing is the big problem here and we seam incapable of solving that. Ni's borrowings to income ratio is significantly below England's indicating that affordability is comparatively good here. But with all these things PWC or no one can predict the future. no body knows what Bretix is never mind the impact it will have on the economy. Very few are predicting a positive outcome, no matter what way they voted. Base rate is about 10% of its long term average. However mortgage fixed rates are many times that. I expect base rate to continue to rise but it has some way to go. The supply of rental property is falling and this will become a significant issue in the future. The difficulty in obtaining a BTL mortgage and the new tax treatment of interest means has killed off any new BTL demand and existing stock is been purchased out.
  8. Can you send me a link showing that £300m of Help to Buy funding went to NI
  9. Agreed. Right to buy was brought in by Thacher. The Tax payer subsided up to 50% of the price of the house to allow social tenants the chance to own their house. It has fallen out of favour in recent years as evidence of large subsidies are given to people who perhaps never paid tax whilst the vast majority of tax payers struggle for years to own their home. When Thacher brought this in the average council house was £30k and tenants were getting discounts of perhaps £5k to £10k and this seamed acceptable to lift entire families out of poverty and affordable home ownership (the agreement at the time was the tax payer was going to be paying their rent anyway). Now with discounts of £200k, in London and even £50k in NI it may have to come to an end.
  10. Its always confusing to look at what is offered. What is important is what people are actually getting (borrowing). Going by the Q2 2017 report from UK Finance Link NI FTB'ers borrowed around 2.95 times household income. Movers in NI borrow around 3.4 times household income. This is something we will have to watch going forward. "Affordability in Northern Ireland remains positive First-time buyer affordability in Northern Ireland was higher in the second quarter than for the UK overall. First-time buyers typically borrowed £96,900 (£137,700 in the UK overall), up from £95,000 the previous quarter. The average household income was £32,200 (£40,800 in the UK overall), up from £32,000. The typical income multiple in Northern Ireland of 2.94 (compared to 2.92 the previous quarter) also compared favourably to the UK average of 3.58. Home movers borrowed an average this quarter of £118,100 (£178,200 in the UK overall), up from £115,000 the previous quarter. The average household income of home movers was £45,500 (£55,100 in the UK overall), down from £46,000. This meant the typical home mover income multiple in Northern Ireland was 2.57, compared to 2.59 the previous quarter and the UK average of 3.37."
  11. How many of the 2660 transactions and circa £300m (at £113k support for each transaction on average) took place in NI? I'm sorry you feel there are people that shouldn't be allowed to own homes especially when we, as taxpayers end up paying far more to house people in social rented housing. Yes Rent to buy, as run by Co-ownership in NI is currently only a pilot scheme with funding for 95 houses.
  12. its unusual for repairs to end up costing less than first anticipated.
  13. Q3 2017 NIRPPI Report NIRPPI Link Standardised Price £132k Quarterly Change +3% Annual Change +6% No of Sales: -9% compared with Q3 2016 -4% Compared with first 3 quarters of 2016 From first look this report is heavily swayed by a large quarterly change in newbuild prices (+18%), whilst newbuild only makes up 14% of the market the change is enough to increase the an margin from 4% to 6%. This 18% jump in newbuild prices can only be considered as a blip and likely to reverse itself or correct itself in the next report.
  14. HTB here was extremely limited. the grantee you refer to was to be given by local government and they refused. Co-ownership is extremely helpful housing families that would otherwise have to be supported by social housing or the PRS. Rent to Buy is a pilot for 95 houses. I like the concept as the majority of the rent is returned to the renter for a deposit if they choose to buy. The changes to the tax treatment of the BTL market has effectively removed them from the newhome purchasers. I guess that more than compensates for rent to buy or even Co-ownership but may have a more severe impact on the market in a few years time.
  15. BMAP was declared unlawful after a JR taken out by one of the government departments. In planning terms it dosen't exist. Most of the land I think you are referring to in Lisburn were zoned in the earlier 2001 Lisburn Area Plan
  16. As I said demand has increased but it is still lower than if was 'back in the day'. However they are all chasing the same few sites as there is little of no supply and the planning system further throttles that supply getting to the market. Land hording dosn't really exist in Northern Ireland. (would love examples so I can go and chase them). There are lots of sites like shrocco and west Lisburn that are in planning after been purchased out of administration but the owners want those sites started as soon as possible. Buying land to hoard is simply too risky.
  17. I know where you are coming from about building materials being about for 1,000's of years and surely inefficiencies should be coming to play today. But when you think about if a brick is a piece of clay heated to so many hundred degrees for a day or two and after packaging transported across the country to site. the two major costs here are the massive heating of the kinnals and the transport costs. both of those costs are massive. Modular off site construction will become the norm. Either it will get cheaper or , and more likely, traditional construction will get so expensive that the modular solution is the most economic solution.
  18. Unfortunately for us all it dosn't work that way. Like most things in the open market the price is controlled by supply and demand. Whilst there is always demand for land it has to be 'effective demand' to effect price i.e. demand backed up with cash/and or debt to complete the purchase. Land prices fell by 80% during the crash as the effective demand dissipated. There is limited (reduced) level of effective demand returning to the market. Whilst the banks are still not funding developers/builders to acquire land there is still people out there to fund by other means. With this reduced level of demand you would think that the price of land should fall but in comes our wonderful government and planning system. Tens of millions of pounds was spend on BMAP over 15 years only for it to been thrown out. The current adopted plan for Belfast is 1992, 2001 for Lisburn and 1982 for Antrim! Therefore there is a chronic shortage of development land in the main built up areas. Even when you manage to acquire a piece of it we have a 70 week average planning duration compared to a 13 week planning duration in England (for major applications-50 units and above). For the price of land to only go up with inflation supply of both zoned land and planninng approvals would need to keep up with need. If the local area plan of zoned land is dates 1992 or even 1982 then we are in a bad place.
  19. I don't believe the mortgage market is anything like the open system for lending in 2005 to 2007 and it is much tighter now which is a good thing. Apart from Co-ownership, which is limited to people on a certain income level, I don't believe there are various schemes in NI which support transactions. There are in England with Help to Buy up to £600k but that scheme is not available here nor do I believe it is needed here. I have also often wondered how people can compare a 80 year old house with a new or nearly new one and expect both of them to have similar prices. But if people are prepared to pay the same for an 80 year old house then that is what the industry has to compete with. The resale market is 80% of the housing market and therefore sets the prices to the 20% of the market that is newbuild. Unfortunately build costs have not deflated. Three main factors here; build cost is approximately 60% labour and that keeps increasing (good inflation). Building regulations and indeed customer expectations keep increasing (also good) but this increase is for improved levels of insulation, air tightness etc which push up costs. An increasing part of the overall construction cost is the cost of contributions to road, sewers and other 'community demands as well as the increased impact of environmental issues. All good but costing perhaps £10k-£20k and upwards a house. In the future such improvements as large scale 3D printing and modular construction could help to offset some of these other add on costs. Modular housing is available now and would certainly be employed whole scale if it was cheaper but it is currently more expensive.
  20. Increasing interest rates cant be seen as inflating house prices. However a 0.25% increase is negotiable. During the boom interest rates was 1,000%, or 10x higher than it is now. The NIRPPI Report will be out next week but it's results will be pre this announcement.
  21. No you cant build a house for £30k. Can you find anything to back that claim up?
  22. no. they didnt complain about anything them. plenty of people were flipping, or moving at that time.
  23. The Irish News article appears to be quoting the NIRPPI figure of 4.4% pa. I don't see monthly change figures for NI in the article.
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