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House Price Crash Forum

BelfastVI

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Everything posted by BelfastVI

  1. I dont agree with you. there are issues with some of the reports as the Nationwide and UUJ are based on small numbers whilst the RICS is simply based on surveyor opinion. However, the quarterly NIRPPI Report is based on the Land Registry returns by the Solicitor which reports the selling price of the house so it is as accurate as you can get. I agree, and this was a bigger issue in the past, it includes some sales which were wreaks which required a lot of repairs but that is not as big an issue now. The average is accurate and they go to great lengths to make allowances for anomalies. The biggest factor in price is location and the areas you are looking to live in would appear to have above average prices.
  2. They fell 1% in Q2 of this year after increasing 3.5% in Q1. It works out at a 2% increase since the start of the year but that would only spoil a good headline.
  3. Q2 2018 NIRPPI REPORT Link Quarter Change -1% Annual Change +4.4% Number of Sales 5,308
  4. My post talks about "Single occupied dwellings". I referred to evidence that the percentage of single occupied houses is predicted to increase significantly. I didn't once refer to size and that's a separate matter. sorry for the confusion.
  5. With new building regs and increased costs that is what is to be expected.if you have went to 6 repeatable firms then you have tested the market.
  6. I don't dispute that. I did see other reports that showed certain local regions of England that were worse than NI but I can't locate the reports. It is interesting that Public Sector Revenue per head for NI is £8,580 pa which is higher that the regions; North of England, West Midlands and Wales and on a par with the regions of Yorkshire and the North West of England. It is the Public Expenditure per head, of £14,018 pa that puts us out of sync. There are a number of reasons for that including our separate education etc, our high level of economic inactive people, bloated public sector and also our spread out population. some can be fixed over time some cant.
  7. Citizenship has many forms and having a harp or crown on your passport does not guarantee you access to, for example health care in a country you are not a resident (or tax payer) unless there are agreements in place to allow same. The statements made earlier this year by the Irish Gov regarding EU citizenship for Irish Passport holders in NI were not his to make. That is something that can only be given by the EU itself and why would it do so, allowing free health care in any country in Europe if the UK, who we pay taxes to for, amongst other things healthcare, has not agreed to reimburse these costs. There was an open door to allow NI to enjoy that status but for reasons some people feel very strongly about that door was slammed closed.
  8. I don't build them but there is evidence that this is what the market wants. Single occupied dwellings are projected to move from something like 22% of stock (some years ago) to 35% of stock in 10 or so years time. that is a major swing and if we built ever new house in the next 10 years as 1 bed dwellings we couldn't achieve this. the primary demand for this is living longer. we are likely to see more of this and the price should reflect the size.
  9. I also believe PWC's 4% increase was over a number of years rather than pa which gives it a barely positive reading. I can't see any any aspect of Brexit that will put positive pressure on house prices. Whilst the 2007 prices were mad I believe they somewhat over corrected and a good part of the recovery we have seen in the last 5 years was coming back from that. I don't see must in the way of price increases in the new build sector and we are barely changing prices between phases. I would only forecast muted increases going forward. My view is we have too few houses in all sectors. There is now a scarcity of rental stock, despite the BTL boom 12 years ago and rents have been rising. This is the only upward pressure out there and totally self inflicted. We will in no way follow what is happening to prices in Dublin. it may have some impact close to the border as people decide to stay and commute but that might be offset with possible new difficulties in working in the EU and living outside it.
  10. Very true but there are many other zones/areas of the UK, particularly in the north, with 3% or less of the population that are exactly in the same position. The truth is the South East of England subsides many other cities and regions of the UK. When you read regional financial analysis reports NI, surprisingly is not always at the bottom. Similarly, I imagine that Dublin and Cork subside many of the other counties.
  11. I have no idea what the impact of any the outcomes will have. There are simply too many knock-on impacts to consider. It is arguarable that house prices were deflated by the troubles and once that was removed they inflated. we all seen how that turned out. However one thing is for sure and something we all need to remember; NI holds about 3% of the population of the whole UK. When the UK government finally have to make a decision on direction -the best outcome for the other 97% will surely out weigh the best outcome for the 3%. What happens to house prices is the least of our concerns. We are in the middle of a multi-generational change to our economy and the people dealing with it, particularly here in Ni are not in the least qualified. The song in my head is: Clowns to the left of me Jokers to the right Here I amStuck in the middle with you
  12. I can't see the buffer running as I don't see how it solves anything. Joint EU & UK reg would possibly have left NI in a wonderful world position. it is not without its complications even ignoring the political parties who have impaled themselves on flag poles.
  13. Yes, I have reflected on that but with a title like "house Price Crash" the level of interest perhaps reflects the peoples concern about this, in NI anyhow.
  14. you only "make money" at the moment of sale and that is only if you don't need to buy another property which is likely to have risen/fallen in value at a similar rate. It is true that historically property has done very well compared to other assets however, as we here all know it can fall far far faster than it ever increases. you have to look at it over the lifetime compared to the alternative.
  15. You could be right but you have to be careful when looking at the most recent quarter count. For example in the previous report Q4 2017 it listed the Number of Verified Sales as 5,501 for Q4 2017. You will see in this most recent report that figure has been revised up to 6,312. We will have to wait to the next report to get a more accurate reading on the trend in sales volume for Q1 2018. Whilst Solicitors are to make their returns and registrations within 30 days of the transaction completion date some are late. What we can say is that 2017, with almost 24,000 verified sales is the highest since 2007 (remember that year). We also can see that 2017 achieved over twice the number of sales as any of the years 2008 to 2011.
  16. Q1 2018 NIRPPI Report Link Quarterly Change +0.3% Annual Change +4.2%
  17. With New-build the price is just the price. It's not like England with a headline price and then a 'real price'. As for second hand houses just be prepared to have to bid on a few to get one. lets the agents see you have a price you wont go over.
  18. Portrush has always had a little micro property market distinct from the rest of NI. Several times I have looked at schemes up there, turned them down as I couldn't get my head around the EA proposed selling prices and continuously proved wrong.
  19. The Nationwide has such a low market share in NI that their report is rarely reflective of the whole market here. Also they change their offerings so one quarter they might be seeking to attract mortgage movers (generally further up the property ladder) and the next quarter go with products/promotions targeting the FTBuyer. This too can influence the data pool. In any event I think the headline is triggered more by a cooling in the UK market rather than a increase in prices in NI.
  20. very true but as a buyer you have significantly less rights at an auction. if you raise your hand (make a bid) when the property is 'on the market' and the hammer falls your are in a binding contract.
  21. We are on average over 40% below the crazy prices 10 years ago.However as stated it depends on the location as some areas fell more than others and indeed the house type. Using this crude average we can assume c£500k for 2007 prices.
  22. No you generally don't get more for a property at auction. what you do get is a guaranteed contract if the bidding goes 'on the market'
  23. it would be interesting to know what they would loose by not charging as that is now the only reason for not making this available. they appear to now have the web based system available (although I haven't tried it yet).
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