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BelfastVI

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Posts posted by BelfastVI

  1. osts largely depend on what stage the house is at. For example if the electrical work is not done yet then an extra scoket should be fairly cheap. however if the house is plastered and someone has to come back and retrack then that is a big mess and price. Sometimes it can be easily managed if you can back to back. IF one new socket in a bedroom, in the same position as one on the opposite side of the wall in another bedroom.

    Same goes for the aditional door to teh En suite

     

  2. On 14/03/2019 at 23:04, The_Equalizer said:

    I seem to remember people saying the same thing about him a decade ago when he was predicting a house price crash for NI.

    He has been calling a crash in UK since 2004. I wish he had been right might have saved people lost of money. But he was wrong. Yes the crash did come in GB 4 years later and they suffered a 20% fall in price. His claim to fame was NI which surrered the 55% crash he had been prediction for so many years. NI is 3% of the UK population. Last I heard of him was on Nolan in 2013 predicting the falls would continue to 70%.

  3. 20 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    It really isn't. Chances are everyone will have 2 cars. The planning and site will be based on 1.2 cars per property. It'll be a nightmare. People parking anywhere and everywhere. 

    The biggest problem with new builds today is density. 

    In England and RoI there are minimum density settings which are higher that even developers would like. its all to do with best use of land. In NI thats not the case and whilst there was ramping up of density in 2006/07 (as anything would sell) that has decreased since and any schemes we are involved in are well below the max and sometimes min density recommendations in the area plans. the 1.2 parking space rule is generally only for city center apartment schemes or social housing schemes with good public transport links. Any of the housing schemes we are involved with have a requirement of 2 in curettage spaces per dwelling plus overflow visitor spaces throughout the development.

  4. On 21/02/2019 at 10:33, Ryzo said:

    New builds -

    Pros - Better insulated, higher spec finish (generally), bigger driveways,

    Cons - Smaller living areas, depreciate faster, smaller garden, closer to neighbours.

    If you know the builder and they have a good reputation it certainly wouldn't put me off buying one. In saying that the cost for some of the upgrades on their standard spec is quite high.

    I don't believe the depreciate faster

  5. 22 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

    After seeing the last crash, and now watching 6 years of rises back to in some case silly levels, it would seem to me to be sensible to wait for another couple of months and see how the Brexit thing actually plays out.

    I can't see a down side to that. It has surprised me that the whole Brexit issue hasn't had a bigger impact on house prices and sales. Or perhaps it has and  prices would have increased more only for it but I find that hard to believe.

    Whilst we are only one builder our sales since the start of the year have been our best ever. I cant really explain it. I honestly expected the uncertainty of what is going to happen with Brexit to put people off making big decisions. I was completely wrong about that.

  6. On 15/02/2019 at 12:18, JoeDavola said:

    - smaller rooms

    - smaller gardens / more dense housing

    - lots of anecdotal stories about problems cropping up - if a house has been standing say 50 years in good nick that's a pretty good test of build quality

    As well as building a lot of houses I have also has to demolish lots. All the old Belfast housing I replaced was replaced at a lower density. Most of the old houses had a small back yard and no garden. They were also smaller. There are fine examples of period houses that will stand the test of time however the majority had no cavity, no insulation, single glazing and no treated timber. The building control regs were of a dramatically lower standard. 

  7. 32 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

    Long term renter here too....I have the fear that prices will only ever rise now as I think low interest rates are here to stay....however I'd advise against newbuild houses they're generally not great quality and I suspect many of them won't age well.

    Interesting comet. You do realise all houses were new once. What decade of construction 60's, 70,s etc do you consider to be superior to to days? 

  8. Nationwide holds such a small part of the NI Housing Market than no one takes their report serious anymore. At one time they were one of the larger players and their report carried a lot of weight. The best report is the NIRPPI Report that is issued every quarter. Although looking at the houses that completed in the previous quarter, therefore reflecting the sales activity in the quarter before that it covers all sales and is therefore the most accurate.

    It has showed no such increase..

  9. On 15/12/2018 at 04:36, yadayada said:

    Why?

    Not at all an expert but if you don't pay you are in breach. You may well have a claim if you feel the Landlord has not acted properly and you may have good reason but before you take the decision to simply remain in the property but not pay for it, take legal advice. You have strong rights as a paying tenant.

  10. On 21/11/2018 at 13:54, Sour Mash said:

    The thing is that the DUP blocked a really sweet deal for NI (effective joint membership of the Single Market and UK economic zone in the event of a hard Brexit) in order to play games with symbolism.  You've got to think that this will alienate a chunk of local voters who  care more about their economic wellbeing than party political games.

    Also, since Remain was something like 56-44 in NI it indicates that a fair chunk of Unionist voters wanted to remain despite the DUP line  (especially if you consider that by no means did all nationalist inclined voters vote for remain).   This could have repercussions for them in future elections as those voters could swing towards the UUP or Alliance.  They've already played the 'them or us' card as far as they can, difficult to see how they are going to retain all their support.

    That last General Election may well turn out to have been their high water mark .... Peak DUP.

     

    I think there are a few games to be played yet. There will be a  fudge on wording around the backstop and the DUP will be able to blow that fudge up into a hard won concession and how they saved the union. I care little about this and the internal politics and am just keen to see NI gain the advantage of open trade with both GB and EU.

  11. 23 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

    Yep, once the UK government is no longer depending on an alliance with an NI party for support, they'll happily ream the place should the going get tough.

      It commands a large amount of government spending relative to its population,  has next to zero electoral cost with respect to backlash from cuts and up to half the population there wouldn't describe themselves as primarily British anyway.  And a fair chunk of the half that do frequently refuse to accept the decisions of Westminster when it doesn't suit.

     

    Not good news for somewhere that is so heavily dependent on public sector funds.

    the recent reliance on the DUP has been a one off. prior to that successive UK governments supported NI. Just as they supported parts of the north of England to a similar extent in extent to £/person. The biggest risk is that the general GB public has now become aware of what a noisy, troublesome and expensive people we are. Some people in GB believe the DUP are the only ones standing up to the EU others think the DUP have punched away above their weight and are holding the rest of the place to ransom.  The DUP are banking on the former but we will only know the impact of this after the next election when the mathematics are unlikely to place them in the same position.

  12. On 18/10/2018 at 09:21, whome_yesyou said:

     

    Just curious, but how has the annual change increased if the quarter dropped -1%? 

    The Q1 annual change is looking at the change from Q1 2017 and Q1 2018 

    The Q2 annual change is looking at the change from Q2 2017 and Q2 2018 

    so it is not only the change in the last quarter which impacts the new annual figure but also the change between Q1 & Q2 2007.

  13. 19 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    I know you're talking about funds. Legal and general have about 10 other BTR developments in the UK. My understanding is they are about 10-20% more expensive that average. They are looking a 3-5% yield. 

    50th percentile rent in Belfast last year was £650a month. 75th percentile was £750. 

    £1400 a month is probably 99th+ percentile. I can't imagine a fund targeting such a tiny market in a regional small city. They are looking for low long-term yield. 

    It's also worth mentioning that Belfast has the highest rent to household income ration. 44% of average income spent on average rent. That's what keeps rental levels down.  It's not like house prices where you can borrow to the max. It's not elastic. It tracks earnings. 

     

    The figures you mentioned £600 to £750 were my thinking too. As I say I have been approached about it but can't see it working here.

  14. On 28/09/2018 at 18:36, 2buyornot2buy said:

     

    It seems to work for Germany with their higher GDP, productivity and life expectancy. The current "amateur" BTL model isn't the same as build to rent. Johnny renting a house out for his pension and crapping it if the boiler breaks isn't how legal and general or Aviva will operate. It's about longer term investment and returns. It's johnnys nemesis. So while I can see the current rental model unattractive, I see the German model being something we should replicate. 

    In saying that, I think there's possible a missommunication. I can't see a pension fund getting the figures wrong to that extent. At current growth levels you'd be looking at decades in the future to achieve 1400 per month.

    Rental prices have been stagnant for about 15 years. They haven't even kept pace with inflation. 

    Or their building to rent 4 bed detached in BT9. 

    This build to rent proposal is coming from the funds that, as you say do this in other areas. I'm not talking about the Buy to Let boys.

    I understood rents have been going up but average rent is something around £600 to £700 per month. However averages, as we know are misleading and it includes all the hovels as well.

    The German model, which I understand is only in a number of cities is state subsidized housing for rent. Its not means tested and the theory is if they control enough of the market they can control the overall market and for quite a while that has worked.

  15. On 28/09/2018 at 18:27, 2buyornot2buy said:

    Usually means more often than not. 

    The argument is, developers and EAslike to describe run of the mill top floor flats as penthouse. I think what we can agree on, is that these do no meet the actual definition of what a penthouse is. They don't meet the luxurious requirement or the usually having a private life. They are top floor flats. 

    According to wikipedia.

    However going by the Cambridge Dictionary a Penthouse is defined as:

    "an expensive apartment or set of rooms at the top of a hotel or tall building"

     

  16. 2 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    The stingrays "official definition" was from Wikipedia. You stated "this would be my definition". 

    The same official definition states " Access to a penthouse apartment is usually provided by a separate elevator" 

    Some penthouses may very well have their own separate elevator. I haven't seen any and wouldn't like to be paying for the maintenance fees for this luxury. I think this would perhaps something you would see in top end in London etc. I have seen some that required a code to be entered into the lift to allow access to the upper floors.

    'The definition' above uses the word "usually" which means that it can still be classified as a penthouse without its own exclusive elevator. I would expect, in this part of the world that this would be the exception rather than the norm.

  17. 2 hours ago, stingray192 said:

     

    Is that for a two bed apartment? If so it’s almost double the current rental in most areas

     

    not sure on the size. they were wanting to talk to me about bringing housing into the model. i just heard them referring to the rental figure they were working on for these apartments. I understand it may include heating and electric etc but it was higher than I expected. Perhaps this should be a topic on its own but do you think the market is shifting towards that, These people appear to be putting their money (or as 2buyornot2buy says your money) where their mouth is.

  18. On 26/09/2018 at 14:19, whome_yesyou said:

    Surprised nobody commenting on this, surely -1% on a quarterly (which is usually a positive HPI quarter) is a good sign. How is everyone else reading it?

    Well it's nor normal to have some quarters positive and some negative. I think, apart from one drop of 0.2% there have been 20 quarters on the trot that were negative. 

    we have not been putting prices up over the last 12 months but both land and build costs have shot up significantly.

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