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BelfastVI

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Posts posted by BelfastVI

  1. 19 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    Actually that's incorrect.

    Q1 2020 lowest quarterly transactions since 2015.

    2019 lowest annual transactions since 2016.

    The market wasn't busy it. Transactions had been dropping for over a year. 

    The market had been slow in 2019 due to all the uncertainty with Brexit (remember Brexit). However after the election in November there was a Borris Bounce (God only knows why) and the market was indeed flying in Q1 2020.

    The NIRPPI report for Q1 2020 showed the dwellings that completed in that quarter and were predominately sold during the previous quarter. The Report does not show the new sales and activity that was taking place during the quarter (Q1 2020). Anyway, Covid brought it crashing to an end.

  2. On 22/08/2020 at 06:46, 2buyornot2buy said:

    20% clearly isn't the norm, if it was the vast majority of transactions would be stopped now. I think it's around 65% of all transactions are FTBers in NI. Add in chains, at 20% the market would grind to a halt. It's more likely 5% LTV are gone, 10% much harder to get, 15% common and 20% as normal. 

    For First Time Buyers you require 15% deposit at the moment. HSBC is the only lender offering 10% deposit loans but this is limited in number.

  3. 5 hours ago, nozzadabest said:

    Hi There

    Its been a long time since I posted on this forum- which helped me a great deal when we were looking for a home (which we eventually found)

    The reason for posting is that a friend contacted me as they are thinking about buying in East Belfast (around Grosvenor school area). 

    I have noticed lots of houses going for sale, but have seen on some social media chats that there is huge demand at moment, bidding wars etc- which I find all the more crazy with COVID. 

    I was wondering - what are everyones thoughts on the price rises? Do you think they will continue or is there an impending crash to come (which to me seems likely as we havent even hit Brexit yet)?

    We bought our home 10 years ago for below rateable value, in a nice area ( BT4)-so have no idea what the market is like now.

    Thanks for any help:)

    Strange times and what has happened has surprised me.

    People have lived through a lockdown and have had time to reassess their living accomidation. We have seen a strong increase in demand for housing. We dont do much in the way of apartments but I imagine that demand in that area will not be seeing the same reaction. As discussed before mortgages are an issue. Unless you have at least a 15% deposit you can't enter the market. Many will say 15% is what should be expected in the market. Its hard to argue against that as it keeps a lid on price inflation.

  4. On 21/07/2020 at 23:16, stingray192 said:

    I think that there will be price rises and decreases all at the same time, I think apartments in Belfast and other towns could be badly hit as people crave some outside space, blocks that are already less desirable will seriously fall in value, at the same apartment blocks in seaside towns etc may not be as badly hit, I think houses with outside space will continue to sell well, however houses with good gardens and good locations will continue to rise in value, knowing a lot of estate agents , the majority of people are looking for bigger gardens etc. This could also damage a lot of the new homes developments which have squeezed as many houses as physically possible into the tiniest space

    I agree demand for housing will increase and demand for apartments will likely fall.

    Houses with larger gardens and close to parks and other ammenties will be in strong demand.

  5. Just an update on things over the last 6 weeks since we came gradually back to life.

    Without marketing or advertising-no Sunday openings etc. 

    We have been swamped. I think thats an EA term.

    I am the first to say that bookings, on their own, mean very little until purchasers have the mortgages, sell their own house, etc and are in a position to complete. 'Many a slip between sip and lip' etc.. But everything starts with bookings and we are certainly getting them.

  6. On 19/06/2020 at 10:54, 2buyornot2buy said:

    That's it.

    Nationwide have massively increased their LTV requirements. If others follow, the FTB market is toast and by extension the rest of the market too. 

    Most are requiring 15% to 20%. Thats ok in the rest of the UK as the Gov backed Help to Buy covers the market but NI is excluded (something I dont complain about as it inflates the market).

     

    The FTB market will be impacted until the return of 90% products.

  7. Back to living in interesting times.

    I think we are not going to see the real outcome of this (in property price impact) until Q4 this year or Q1 next when we get a better idea on employment.

    At the moment there is actually a 'rush' of demand. But then again thats after 8 weeks of nothing. The demand and bookings is one thing but backing it up with mortgage offers will be the real test.

     

  8. Floor Space in English Homes Report

    The above is a Report by the Ministery of Housing & Communties, July 2018.

    I havnt dived in but the background section covers the size of differant types of housing in the UK covering pre 1919 to our current post 2002 stock.

    Quote

     

    "This research demonstrates the difficulties in assessing the relative size of English homes over time. The position is a complex one not least because the types of homes built in different periods varies so much. Nonetheless this research concludes that there is no overriding evidence to suggest that our newest homes are getting smaller.

    For the whole of the English housing stock, and for most dwelling types, average internal floor area has remained fairly constant over time, particularly if homes built before 1919 are excluded.

    There is, however, evidence to suggest that during the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s average floor space fell for some types of houses when compared with older homes and the newest homes built after 2002. For example, average floor space among purpose built flats remained constant in those built from 1919 to 1974, but then fell from 1975 to 2002. The newest purpose built flats built after 2002 had an average floor space greater than those built from 1975 to 2002.

    From the 1990s, diversity in dwelling sizes increased, returning to pre-1945 levels. After 2002, however, 43% of new homes built since were purpose built flats and the predominant bedroom size of new homes was two bedrooms. Not surprisingly, these types of homes tend to be smaller than the typical family sized semi-detached homes most commonly built from 1945 to the mid1970s. Homes of the same type however tend not to show significant differences in size.

    There is some evidence to suggest that for medium and larger sized family homes, there were generally more habitable rooms within properties of similar total floor area from around 1980. The inclusion of rooms such as en suite rooms and utility rooms, some of which may have been added after a home was originally constructed, may be making our modern homes feel smaller."

     

    1207653008_FloorAreapre1919topost2002.JPG.074a1ab5d04d6ef2d7e91991562fae25.JPG

  9. On 08/06/2020 at 16:44, 2buyornot2buy said:

    Quality isn't just measured by how well a tradesman fits a skirting board. Though building defects are a measure of poor quality. Size is a quality attribute. Lots of things make up "quality" when comparing similar objects, e.g. houses. If I'm comparing a 1890 detached and one recently built room size, garden etc are all valid measures of quality. I don't have access to NHBC claim data but it's a significant enough problem for them to introduce gagging clauses on settlements

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/16/new-home-owners-gagged-over-poor-build-and-compensation-claims

    Average house size by house type have been decreasing in the UK for years. 

    Obviously you can say but look we demolished all those terraces and build townhouses and you'd be right. But then flats have increased, semis and detached are smaller. 

     

    I think we are agreeing that quality = workmanship and choice of materials etc and size = well, size.

    They are two seperate issues. 

    I don't agree quality of houses in the 1980/90's are better than now. Quite the opposite. 

    I would like to look further for data to see if the housing in the UK has decreased. Probably two main drivers for this-

    1.We have more apartment living now and apartments are normally smaller that housing.

    2. We have smaller families units now. The experts tell us there will be over 30% 1 person households soon. That percentage used to be only 20%

     

     

  10. 4 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    People will give forgive the draft and the heating being on a extra hour a day for the larger room space, garden and sound proofing. I know I do. I'm not talking about donegal Avenue terraces btw. 

    Larger room and garden size are not "structural" or "quality issues". They are size issues. You could buy a small house 30 years ago and you can buy one now. I am not sure if there is data to show the average size of housing over the years. Perhaps LPS might have that sort of info but I don't recall ever seeing it. 

    As for sound proofing it was not a big item of cencern 20 or 30 years ago. There was very little, that I recall in the old Building Regs concerning sound.  I know we have more apartments now (people living above and below) but we had just as many semi and town houses or terrase housing back then. In recent years it is certainly a big issue. I will not go through all the steps and when they have been introduced but they are signficant. 

  11. On 06/06/2020 at 18:00, JoeDavola said:

    Very interesting - thanks for the info.

    I thought it looked like an 80's/90's kitchen and from what you're saying I was right.

    There's an odd thing about houses that were built in recent decades where they sometimes seem to date moreso than houses built say 60 plus years ago....the 'aesthetics' used look very much 'of their time' and not in a good way.

    Structurally I'm sure it's of good quality; certainly better than what's going up nowadays. Just think the price is ridiculous for what you're getting.

    I just don't get how you can say a house built 30 years ago is of better quality than a house built today. I have been around in the industry, almost that length of time and I can assure you that is not at all the case. I (obviously biased) believe the company I work for builds quality homes. However what we build now is way ahead of what we or indeed the industry in general was building when I started.

    Thirty years ago there was basic insulation and little notion of air tightness. Presure treated timber and kiln dried joists were not in circulation. ground floor insulation was not in the building regs. 

  12. On 14/05/2020 at 22:54, getdoon_weebobby said:

    Seen a few sites online and made a few enquiries, will be a while before I view them , one site (actually my favourite) has put the asking price up 20k just because i enquired. lol

    this will be a long game , renting in 06/07 it felt like eternity holding off till 2012 but worth it ! 

    One agent told me that enqueries about houses and plots in the country side has 'gone through the roof'. Not sure if that means he got 10 calls or 100.

    Not what I want to hear, in my VI world, but interesting.

    If that materilises it starts to show how people are re-viewing what they want in a home.

  13. Last year the NI market was somewhat subdued due mainly to the uncertainly around Brexit etc. Whilst I am not claiming that the election of Borris should settle anyones anexity over the impact of Brexit it did calm the market and both sales and prices have increased since. This will not show up until the next NIRPPI Report.

    The arrival of Cronavirus may have a bigger impact on the market. We simply don't know if it will be as bad as Italy or if there is any reason it shouldnt be.

    I imagine there will be more important things to worry about in the coming weeks and months than House Prices. 

  14. 16 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

    I was doing some number crunching last night looking for patterns between London and everywhere else in the UK. It seems to be that London really is overvalued even with these low interest rates. While googling a year or so ago I did find a very good report by Ulster Bank about the relationship between NI house market crash, the Dublin crash and the crash in London. Cannot find it at all these days.

    London sells alot of extreemly expensive apartments to mainly overseas people who, for various reasons want to have Sterling assets. this completely distorts the prices there and the price of these multi million pound apartments has no relation to average income in London.

  15. On 19/11/2019 at 19:17, 2buyornot2buy said:

    20000 come of age and 16000 die. We also have an aging population where the proportion of the population over 65 has increased and the number of children decreased. 

    You should be looking to build folds. 

    It is true we have an aging population. the impact of this is people are holding onto housing stock longer before it recycles. 

    Aqnd you retirement villages, rather than retirement homes are the answer which would allow the 'empty' nesters to release their family houses back into the market place.

  16. 22 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

    As an EA, do you think that if someone is a cash buyer that's a useful thing in today's market for getting any meaningful discount?

    Are most 'cash only' houses that come on the market ones that no bugger would want anyway?

    As stated below I am a builder.

    The answer is no. There is good supply of mortgage availability and has been for the last 5 years. It is only when mortgages lenders pull back their Loan to Value ratios that Cash becomes King.

    I imagine if someone is saying 'cash buyer only' it means he dosnt want a suveyor or solicitor looking too closely at it. draw your own conclusions.

  17. 22 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    I agree BVI. I'm absolutely disgusted with all those previous rental properties just evaporating when they stop being rental stock. 

    It's zero sum. One less rental is one more owner occupier who was previously a renter. Net effect is zero. 

    You are right of course. they dont evaporate and should have explained further. they are been purchased by people to live in rather than to rent out. Which is one way is a good thing but on the other hand, and the point I was making - it is depleting the rental stock.

    The net effect is not zero as there are aprox 20,000 people come of age every year. some stay at home, some rent and some buy. If the rental stock is decreasing every year then we will have a problem.

  18. Something that has to be taken into consideration is the differance in the alternative which is renting. I believe it is this differance that drives people towards buying rather than renting and vice versa. Rents have been rising in NI. I believe this will continue as the BTL bandwagan are exiting due to pressure from their bank, rising prices allowing them out, and the change to the Tax allowance on interest.

    There are no new private BTL entrainties. There are some inst' investors in the Build to Rent schemes, but these are aimed at high rent locations.

    Therefore the number of  properties for rent is and will continue to decrease and the number of people looking to rent has and will continue to increase.

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