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BelfastVI

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Posts posted by BelfastVI

  1. On 17/02/2021 at 11:32, 2buyornot2buy said:

     6757 Q4 2019 vs 7401 Q4 2020 is a 9.5% increase. Not 17%. 

    2020 transactions down 21.3% vs 2019

    Lowest transaction level since 2013. 

    I see Q4 2019 sales numbers have indeed been revised up from the 6021, as first published to 6,757 (736 increase).

    The Q4 2018 figures were similarly revised up by, in that case over 1,000 units so it would be safe to assume that Q4 2020 will over time be revised up as well.

    My comparison of 17% was the first release of Q4 2020 with first release Q4 2019. we can look back in a years time and review.

    It is t no one's surprise that the overall 2020 sales numbers were down given the complete shutdown over a number of months. I think all, including myself have been surprised at the speed of the rebound. 

    Looking at ant quarter of 2020 and comparing it to others is perhaps unfair because of the year it was. 

     

  2.  

    I would assume this may lead to three things. 

    1. GB companies relocating to NI to avoid tariffs

    2. A slight boost the NI economy and therefore a softening of price drops in the 2-5 year time scale

    3. A widespread feeling of resentment of NI within the rest of the UK, that could lead to calls for a breakup of the union. After all the UK funds Northern Ireland via the block grant to an extent much greater than the tax revenue generated here, will they really want NI to enjoy better conditions than they have despite being a drain on UK resources? 

    It is all very interesting and with nothing set in stone it is impossible to make major strategic decisions to relocate. However I imagine manufactures in England have been putting off expansion plans for that very reason. 

    If the dice rolls a certain way NI may be the only location that can export, without taffifs to bot GB and the UK. That may place it at an advantage over ROI and GB for an English speaking location. Had we obtained the power to set our own C Tax then we could have become a player.

    Re the block grant there are many parts of GB that run at a neg tax/grant with sometimes areas in the north of England in even worse positions. however, I agree it would not be a good idea to keep reminding English Nationalists. 

  3.  

    There is currently around 70000 people on furlough in Northern Ireland, mainly part timers and for the most part they will be employed in retail and hospitality, I don’t think this will make a huge difference to the property market, the biggest sales are for people returning from London etc rather than local

    I believe that was down to 54,000 Link

  4.  

    Many who already started the conveyancing process were able to be assessed under older requirements. I.e. no negative impact due to furlough. True that they now have to worry... several thousand of completions later. 

     

    The 30+% in the public sector also won't have to worry obviously. 

    Public sector, which is probably greater than 30% wont have to worry.

    Many purchasers who had mortgage offers had these later rescinded as they were furloughed so no they didn't slip through. I lost a few sales under these circumstances.  

  5.  

    The average UK time is 8 -12 weeks. New build I'd expect to be at the lower end. You have less time for the valuation, no adverse survey results to deal with, mortgage products already chosen as you've had good warning and less complicated searches. 

    I would also imaging the majority of your sales are chain free too BVI? 16 weeks really isn't standard. 

    Went over the sales on our largest site, over 250 dwellings. Those, at time of booking; Not subject to sale 47%, Subject to Sale 13%, Own house agreed 40%

    Therefore those booking who owned a house =53%. Call it 50/50. It will differ on different sites depending on product and location.

    Duration from reservation to completion on that site is averaging 5 months. 

    To be honest this is not necessary the duration of conveyancing but more a product of when we release and sell the houses which is generally at foundation stage. If the market is going well the duration will be longer as the houses are reserved at foundation stage and it will take that length to complete. if the market is slow we may very well have the houses further advanced prior to booking and the duration to physical completion may well be shorter.

     

  6.  

    16 weeks isn't average. 16 weeks is long. 8 -12 weeks is the average. 

    In my experience 16 weeks is average for booking to completion for the houses we sell and this is pretty much the same over the last 20 years or so. Maybe our buyers are slow but I expect that to be industry standard. I don't know if there is data out there on this. 

    If it is an existing house with no chain I expect your timescale may be correct.

    I am coming from the new build sector and we generally release at around foundation stage. A buyer may have their own house to sell and that can take time to achieve. hopefully it all comes together in and around the construction completion timescale (obviously not before). So we normally set the target completion date and hopefully everything falls into place around that time. 

  7.  

    Should be about 20000 transactions in October going by the mates output. Tell them I can recommend a conveyancer if its taking 16 weeks to complete. 

    4 months is fairly standard for booking to completion.

    We seen the same increase in bookings over the summer but that was just catch up from 2 months of hardly any. those completions ar thankfully happening now. will that continue- I have no idea.

  8.  

    I'll say 20 - 30% down in 18 months. 

    I can see the market slowing to almost a stop year end and Q1 of next year but that is likely to be caused by a stall in the issue of mortgages rather than a lack in actual demand. There has been no let off in demand and prices have increased throughout all this. Output of new housing stick in NI will be 25% to 30% of what is needed. 

    A lot of people were predicting large drops in April/May. I can understand why they thought that but as the OP states there was no froth to blow off and this shock to our lives (which is far from over) has made us reassess housing. 

  9. On 07/09/2020 at 13:07, JoeDavola said:

    What specifically are they trying to do? Is this the 'Tribeca' development, or are they looking at developing the space above commercial premises across the wider city centre?

    I love living in an apartment but I've reached an age where I'm looking to move out of the city centre. I don't think we 'do' apartment living very well here in terms of the size of apartments; and most people end up wanting to move out of them by the time they hit 30.

    The other issue is, and I say this as someone who has lived in the city centre for a decade; there isn't an awful lot of interest to actually do in the city center IMO beyond going out drinking. There isn't exactly thriving cultural scene.

    The want to increase living in the City Centre. Tribeca is part of that. They want to go high and want to have people 'living above the shops'. As I say I am not so sure thats what people wanted in Belfast and Covid-19 has made my view on this even stronger.. 

     

    Manhattan has 15,000 vacent apartments for the first time ever. There may be many reasions for this i.e. the normal influx of people has stopped etc. However property prices in up state New York has 'rocketed' (estate agent speak for any price increase) but it would indicate, whilst not a flight to the countryside, a re-consideration of what people consider a priorety when deciding where to live. It may be short term, who knows.

  10. 5 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    Not just unemployment. Average earnings. 

    if unimployment increases overall average earnings decreases. Will the income of those still in work also decrease? that will be interesting to see. certianly there will be little in way of presure for wage increases. Always difficult to lower pay but hours worked could well decrease.

  11. 22 hours ago, headmelter said:

    From memory in 2007/08 prices remained 'sticky' for nearly 12 months before realism took hold... This time 2021 should indicate a more accurate state of the market imho...

    during the boom there were 5 quarters averaging in double digit increases ending in Q3 2007. Starting in Q4 2007 and for the next 6 quarters there was a 45% drop. These reports are showing the activity in the quarter before. so the music stopped around Sept 2007 and both volumes and prices collapsed.

    If we had average prices of £230k and similar multiple of household income now then this undoubtablewould have triggered a similar, if not larger collapse.

    In 2006/2007 the industry was delivering around 14,000 new houses pa. Over the dozen or so years since it has been less than half that and this year might only see a quarter of that number delivered. so the supply of standing stock is a fraction of what it was and we are seeing strong demand. we are seeing price increases on the ground. it will be interesting to see what the upcoming NIRPPI Report shows. I imagine apartments will fall but housing, particularly new build will be level or increase. I couldnt imagined 6 months ago that I would be saying that.

    But you need at least a 15% deposit (not a bad thing in the long run. I am not a fan of 95% lending). Unimployment is the thing to watch. It is going to increase that is a given. The questing is for how long?

  12. 11 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    There's a weird disconnect between risk scoring in NI and GB. 15% has always been the norm in GB for new builds, yet it was possible to get away with less using a local lender. 

    Looks like 15% is the current norm then. 

    I have a HSBC Premier tracker. They have the pick of new business, have done for years now. They won't be rushing to lend to customers who struggle to bridge the gap between 10 and 15%. 

    90% and 95% has been the norm for some time for housing (They do limit apartments to 15%). Offered from both local and UK providers. They have all pulled back. The Help to Buy is a big factor in the rest of GB (not available in NI). Basically the Gov pays the 15% deposit for FTBers up to £600k dwellings. I think they should have weened the market off that years ago.

  13. 20 hours ago, stingray192 said:

    The property market was very busy and prices were rising before Covid, I think with lock down people had the time to really think about their homes, the location, size, outside space etc, the stamp duty holiday is an extra bonus, long term it will all come down to jobs, I’ve said before and still think that long term people will really stay away from city centre apartment living especially with home working being so much easier, people are also spending on their homes because holidays are going to be very limited for at least a few years

    I posted earlier that an increase is sales volume and perhaps price was occouring in Q1 2020. The completion of these sales only happening now. Somehave had to pull out or defer due to being on Furlong (the elephant in the room going forward). For us, that volume resumed in June, July & Aug.

    Belfast City Council has big plans for getting people living in apartments over the shops etc. I am not so sure and I don't think the lockdown period will help as we see people wanting to get away from city centre apartments and getting a house and garden further out. 

  14. 19 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    Actually that's incorrect.

    Q1 2020 lowest quarterly transactions since 2015.

    2019 lowest annual transactions since 2016.

    The market wasn't busy it. Transactions had been dropping for over a year. 

    The market had been slow in 2019 due to all the uncertainty with Brexit (remember Brexit). However after the election in November there was a Borris Bounce (God only knows why) and the market was indeed flying in Q1 2020.

    The NIRPPI report for Q1 2020 showed the dwellings that completed in that quarter and were predominately sold during the previous quarter. The Report does not show the new sales and activity that was taking place during the quarter (Q1 2020). Anyway, Covid brought it crashing to an end.

  15. On 22/08/2020 at 06:46, 2buyornot2buy said:

    20% clearly isn't the norm, if it was the vast majority of transactions would be stopped now. I think it's around 65% of all transactions are FTBers in NI. Add in chains, at 20% the market would grind to a halt. It's more likely 5% LTV are gone, 10% much harder to get, 15% common and 20% as normal. 

    For First Time Buyers you require 15% deposit at the moment. HSBC is the only lender offering 10% deposit loans but this is limited in number.

  16. 5 hours ago, nozzadabest said:

    Hi There

    Its been a long time since I posted on this forum- which helped me a great deal when we were looking for a home (which we eventually found)

    The reason for posting is that a friend contacted me as they are thinking about buying in East Belfast (around Grosvenor school area). 

    I have noticed lots of houses going for sale, but have seen on some social media chats that there is huge demand at moment, bidding wars etc- which I find all the more crazy with COVID. 

    I was wondering - what are everyones thoughts on the price rises? Do you think they will continue or is there an impending crash to come (which to me seems likely as we havent even hit Brexit yet)?

    We bought our home 10 years ago for below rateable value, in a nice area ( BT4)-so have no idea what the market is like now.

    Thanks for any help:)

    Strange times and what has happened has surprised me.

    People have lived through a lockdown and have had time to reassess their living accomidation. We have seen a strong increase in demand for housing. We dont do much in the way of apartments but I imagine that demand in that area will not be seeing the same reaction. As discussed before mortgages are an issue. Unless you have at least a 15% deposit you can't enter the market. Many will say 15% is what should be expected in the market. Its hard to argue against that as it keeps a lid on price inflation.

  17. On 21/07/2020 at 23:16, stingray192 said:

    I think that there will be price rises and decreases all at the same time, I think apartments in Belfast and other towns could be badly hit as people crave some outside space, blocks that are already less desirable will seriously fall in value, at the same apartment blocks in seaside towns etc may not be as badly hit, I think houses with outside space will continue to sell well, however houses with good gardens and good locations will continue to rise in value, knowing a lot of estate agents , the majority of people are looking for bigger gardens etc. This could also damage a lot of the new homes developments which have squeezed as many houses as physically possible into the tiniest space

    I agree demand for housing will increase and demand for apartments will likely fall.

    Houses with larger gardens and close to parks and other ammenties will be in strong demand.

  18. Just an update on things over the last 6 weeks since we came gradually back to life.

    Without marketing or advertising-no Sunday openings etc. 

    We have been swamped. I think thats an EA term.

    I am the first to say that bookings, on their own, mean very little until purchasers have the mortgages, sell their own house, etc and are in a position to complete. 'Many a slip between sip and lip' etc.. But everything starts with bookings and we are certainly getting them.

  19. On 19/06/2020 at 10:54, 2buyornot2buy said:

    That's it.

    Nationwide have massively increased their LTV requirements. If others follow, the FTB market is toast and by extension the rest of the market too. 

    Most are requiring 15% to 20%. Thats ok in the rest of the UK as the Gov backed Help to Buy covers the market but NI is excluded (something I dont complain about as it inflates the market).

     

    The FTB market will be impacted until the return of 90% products.

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