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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by BelfastVI

  1. Very small amount with us >5%. I am hearing that this is what is boosting the north coast prices.
  2. Public sector, which is probably greater than 30% wont have to worry. Many purchasers who had mortgage offers had these later rescinded as they were furloughed so no they didn't slip through. I lost a few sales under these circumstances.
  3. People on Furlough cannot obtain a mortgage. Indeed many people who are in full time work but working in an at risk industry such as retail and tourism cannot obtain a mortgage.
  4. Q3 2020 NIRPPI REPORT LINK Quarter Change +1.5% Annual Change +2.5% Number of Sales 4,630
  5. Went over the sales on our largest site, over 250 dwellings. Those, at time of booking; Not subject to sale 47%, Subject to Sale 13%, Own house agreed 40% Therefore those booking who owned a house =53%. Call it 50/50. It will differ on different sites depending on product and location. Duration from reservation to completion on that site is averaging 5 months. To be honest this is not necessary the duration of conveyancing but more a product of when we release and sell the houses which is generally at foundation stage. If the market is going well the duration will be longer as the houses are reserved at foundation stage and it will take that length to complete. if the market is slow we may very well have the houses further advanced prior to booking and the duration to physical completion may well be shorter.
  6. In my experience 16 weeks is average for booking to completion for the houses we sell and this is pretty much the same over the last 20 years or so. Maybe our buyers are slow but I expect that to be industry standard. I don't know if there is data out there on this. If it is an existing house with no chain I expect your timescale may be correct. I am coming from the new build sector and we generally release at around foundation stage. A buyer may have their own house to sell and that can take time to achieve. hopefully it all comes together in and around the construction completion timescale (obviously not before). So we normally set the target completion date and hopefully everything falls into place around that time.
  7. 4 months is fairly standard for booking to completion. We seen the same increase in bookings over the summer but that was just catch up from 2 months of hardly any. those completions ar thankfully happening now. will that continue- I have no idea.
  8. I can see the market slowing to almost a stop year end and Q1 of next year but that is likely to be caused by a stall in the issue of mortgages rather than a lack in actual demand. There has been no let off in demand and prices have increased throughout all this. Output of new housing stick in NI will be 25% to 30% of what is needed. A lot of people were predicting large drops in April/May. I can understand why they thought that but as the OP states there was no froth to blow off and this shock to our lives (which is far from over) has made us reassess housing.
  9. Q2 2020 NIRPPI REPORT LINK Quarter Change +0.3% Annual Change +3% Number of Sales 1,652 (One quarter of normal)
  10. The want to increase living in the City Centre. Tribeca is part of that. They want to go high and want to have people 'living above the shops'. As I say I am not so sure thats what people wanted in Belfast and Covid-19 has made my view on this even stronger.. Manhattan has 15,000 vacent apartments for the first time ever. There may be many reasions for this i.e. the normal influx of people has stopped etc. However property prices in up state New York has 'rocketed' (estate agent speak for any price increase) but it would indicate, whilst not a flight to the countryside, a re-consideration of what people consider a priorety when deciding where to live. It may be short term, who knows.
  11. if unimployment increases overall average earnings decreases. Will the income of those still in work also decrease? that will be interesting to see. certianly there will be little in way of presure for wage increases. Always difficult to lower pay but hours worked could well decrease.
  12. during the boom there were 5 quarters averaging in double digit increases ending in Q3 2007. Starting in Q4 2007 and for the next 6 quarters there was a 45% drop. These reports are showing the activity in the quarter before. so the music stopped around Sept 2007 and both volumes and prices collapsed. If we had average prices of £230k and similar multiple of household income now then this undoubtablewould have triggered a similar, if not larger collapse. In 2006/2007 the industry was delivering around 14,000 new houses pa. Over the dozen or so years since it has been less than half that and this year might only see a quarter of that number delivered. so the supply of standing stock is a fraction of what it was and we are seeing strong demand. we are seeing price increases on the ground. it will be interesting to see what the upcoming NIRPPI Report shows. I imagine apartments will fall but housing, particularly new build will be level or increase. I couldnt imagined 6 months ago that I would be saying that. But you need at least a 15% deposit (not a bad thing in the long run. I am not a fan of 95% lending). Unimployment is the thing to watch. It is going to increase that is a given. The questing is for how long?
  13. 90% and 95% has been the norm for some time for housing (They do limit apartments to 15%). Offered from both local and UK providers. They have all pulled back. The Help to Buy is a big factor in the rest of GB (not available in NI). Basically the Gov pays the 15% deposit for FTBers up to £600k dwellings. I think they should have weened the market off that years ago.
  14. I posted earlier that an increase is sales volume and perhaps price was occouring in Q1 2020. The completion of these sales only happening now. Somehave had to pull out or defer due to being on Furlong (the elephant in the room going forward). For us, that volume resumed in June, July & Aug. Belfast City Council has big plans for getting people living in apartments over the shops etc. I am not so sure and I don't think the lockdown period will help as we see people wanting to get away from city centre apartments and getting a house and garden further out.
  15. The market had been slow in 2019 due to all the uncertainty with Brexit (remember Brexit). However after the election in November there was a Borris Bounce (God only knows why) and the market was indeed flying in Q1 2020. The NIRPPI report for Q1 2020 showed the dwellings that completed in that quarter and were predominately sold during the previous quarter. The Report does not show the new sales and activity that was taking place during the quarter (Q1 2020). Anyway, Covid brought it crashing to an end.
  16. For First Time Buyers you require 15% deposit at the moment. HSBC is the only lender offering 10% deposit loans but this is limited in number.
  17. Strange times and what has happened has surprised me. People have lived through a lockdown and have had time to reassess their living accomidation. We have seen a strong increase in demand for housing. We dont do much in the way of apartments but I imagine that demand in that area will not be seeing the same reaction. As discussed before mortgages are an issue. Unless you have at least a 15% deposit you can't enter the market. Many will say 15% is what should be expected in the market. Its hard to argue against that as it keeps a lid on price inflation.
  18. I agree demand for housing will increase and demand for apartments will likely fall. Houses with larger gardens and close to parks and other ammenties will be in strong demand.
  19. Just an update on things over the last 6 weeks since we came gradually back to life. Without marketing or advertising-no Sunday openings etc. We have been swamped. I think thats an EA term. I am the first to say that bookings, on their own, mean very little until purchasers have the mortgages, sell their own house, etc and are in a position to complete. 'Many a slip between sip and lip' etc.. But everything starts with bookings and we are certainly getting them.
  20. Most are requiring 15% to 20%. Thats ok in the rest of the UK as the Gov backed Help to Buy covers the market but NI is excluded (something I dont complain about as it inflates the market). The FTB market will be impacted until the return of 90% products.
  21. Back to living in interesting times. I think we are not going to see the real outcome of this (in property price impact) until Q4 this year or Q1 next when we get a better idea on employment. At the moment there is actually a 'rush' of demand. But then again thats after 8 weeks of nothing. The demand and bookings is one thing but backing it up with mortgage offers will be the real test.
  22. Floor Space in English Homes Report The above is a Report by the Ministery of Housing & Communties, July 2018. I havnt dived in but the background section covers the size of differant types of housing in the UK covering pre 1919 to our current post 2002 stock.
  23. I think we are agreeing that quality = workmanship and choice of materials etc and size = well, size. They are two seperate issues. I don't agree quality of houses in the 1980/90's are better than now. Quite the opposite. I would like to look further for data to see if the housing in the UK has decreased. Probably two main drivers for this- 1.We have more apartment living now and apartments are normally smaller that housing. 2. We have smaller families units now. The experts tell us there will be over 30% 1 person households soon. That percentage used to be only 20%
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