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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by BelfastVI

  1. 16 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

    I'd assumed that there would be a big increase in the number of houses coming on this Spring seing as the pandemic is 'over', but it doesn't seem to have happened.

    I know someone who has sold (for much more than they bought 8 years ago obv), but it's kind of irrelevant as they're seeing nowhere worth moving to. The quality of what is coming on the market is often quite low; i.e. places needing renovation but still asking big money so will be of limited appeal to many buyers.

    I do wonder whether low inventory is indicitive of a highly disfunctional market where most people can't afford to move, or don't see it as being worthwhile taking on so much extra debt for just a little extra space, so are just staying put.

    Which means most people looking to buy will be FTB, folk who have gotten divorced, and older folk who are forced to downsize?

    Who knows maybe inventory numbers will pick up over the summer, but I have a feeling they wont. Of course low numbers coming on does help to keep prices high, even in an environment where the cost of everything including borrowing is going up.

    I can't explain the low inventory. its baffled me for a while. I know new build has been unable to provide what it should be due to no zoned land, slow planning and NI Water issues but, at best new build is 20% of the market.

  2. On 02/06/2022 at 19:24, Canyon78 said:

    Its up to 875 today.

    Yes hearing agents saying people finally starting to put their houses on the market. don't know what they were waiting for.

  3. On 25/01/2022 at 18:45, Noah said:

    I've already bought a new house, that could be good or bad. I think I got a reasonable deal, but there haven't been too many bargains recently. If prices continue to go up I'll get a good price for my old house, but if the market turns down I'll have bought high and sold low which is exactly what you're not supposed to do! Spoke to the estate agent recently and she told me not to delay, kinda wondering does she know something I don't. Maybe the word is with the US stock market teetering on the edge of a fall it won't be too long before the knock on effect is first a US housing down turn then a UK one, or maybe I'm reading too much into the EA's comments! 

    I expect he is just crying out for stock. My advice is never to listen to either car sales men or estate agents.

  4. NI House prices have gained aprox £61k in the past 7 years since the bottom in 2013. However, current average prices are still aprox £65k below what they were at the height of the boom in 2007. Therefore, even if house prices were to continue on this path, which almost certain not to happen, it would not be until 2028 until we reached the peek prices again, some 21 years later.

    For the record I don't believe that will happen unless general inflation (including wages) takes over. 

  5. 16 hours ago, coypondboy said:

    reminds me of the last boom people have not learnt just talk to any ftb who bought in 2006/7 and still in serous negative equity.  My brother in law lives in cookstown and his 2 bed flat he bought for 30k in 2002 went up to 130k at the peak (his neighbour bought idential flat) around that time.

    Today his neighbour had the flat repossessed in 2012 and sold at auction for 30k now worth 130k again.  He buggered off to Australia with no forwarding address and I think it was his cousin who bought it at auction for that price.

    History repeating itself?

    The 2007 crash was fueled by a credit boom with the banks pushing out debt with few questions asked with valuers egar to rubber stamp this. The price of property had little connection to the cost of construction.

    The banks are certainly not doing that now and NI houseprices (thankfully) are no where near 2007 prices.

    Prices today would have to grow by over 50% to reach 2007 levels.

    What we have is a massive shortage of supply coupled with a boom in demand caused mainly by a change in lifestyle choices as a result of lockdown (my opinion). Low interest rates (10y fixed repayment at sub 4%) means the cost of ownership is much less than the cost of renting in many cases and this fuels decisions.

    We are also seeing a massive increase in cost of construction. I am hoping some of this will ease but it will never return to where it was with the cost to construct increasing by around 10%.


  6. On 22/07/2021 at 00:35, getdoon_weebobby said:

    If I paid to resubmit the developers house plans and I added a garage to the application. Let’s say those plans were approved BUT I ran out of time to get my own design planned and approved. Would the foundations of a garage be enough to secure planning ? That way I would have time to try and secure planning for our design but without committing to the foundations of the builders design. 

    Yes, if the garage is part of the approved planning permission. Provided you first comply with any pre-commencement conditions such as forming sightlines, submitting and obtaining approval of land scaping etc. Any clause that states "before commencement of.." needs to be sorted before you excavate the foundations. 


    You can then apply for a Commencement of Legal Development Certificate (may be slightly different wording, where Planning Service, for a fee will confirm that the Planning Approval has been legally commenced.  

  7. On 04/07/2021 at 00:05, gruffydd said:

    The current rise was caused by politicians... politics, for goodness sake. 

    The only impact local politicians have had on house prices in NI is  their continuous practice limiting supply via no area plans and the slowest planning system in these islands. At a national level the only decision to have any impact in the Covit era was the STAMP holiday which had little impact here as it was free up to £125k in any event.

  8. On 04/07/2021 at 00:04, gruffydd said:

    Government intervention simply changed the trajectory... now they're out of powder it'll be interesting to see what happens next. 

    "At another level, there is a deeper, more philosophical debate waging. It centres on the core inconsistency embedded in what we might call the “promise of property”. The inconsistency is the promise that property will make you wealthy once you own it and sell it on, allied with the promise that the first-time buyer can buy an affordable house. You can only have both of these aspirations for a number of generations because eventually, the society runs out of buyers. We are here now. If we promise homeowners the option to sell on eventually, cashing in at much higher prices than they originally bought the property for, then we need to create a buying class with limitless income. Societies that get lucky economically can probably get away with this, in a fast-growing economy, for at most two generations, then we run out of buyers rich enough to play the game."

    The Ponzi scheme is about to unwind. http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/we-are-at-the-end-of-a-slow-moving-housing-ponzi-scheme/

    I am a big fan of McWilliams but he is talking about house prices in Dublin which are on a different planet They have the surrounding areas busy de-zoning land. what could possibly go wrong.

    Dublin has a major housing crisis. Rents are falling with people being able to work from home but to rent a bedroom in a house was €2,400 per month and multi-national funds, who had been given major tax breaks, are buying up all the newbuild in the city.

    The average price in Dublin is €380,000 (£325,000), Belfast is £142,000 (43% of Dublin Prices). 

  9. On 29/06/2021 at 10:42, 2buyornot2buy said:

    This is what happens when you removed SDLT. People borrow thousands more to save hundreds. 

    SDLT was free up to £125k and was 2% on anything over that to £250k. with the average NI house sale of £150k the normal SDLT payment would be £3k. Removal of this, at best should only increase prices by that £3k or 2%.

    I think when you get into very expensive houses this would become a factor. we are booking houses today that will complete long after this SDLT holiday is over and it is not a factor.

  10. On 16/05/2021 at 22:27, getdoon_weebobby said:

    Looking at a site OPP granted Dec-17

    FPP application submitted 26.08.20

    FPP granted 05.01.21 (developers generic 4 bed house)

    Negotiating a price with owner of land subject to getting approval for his generic build to be further back in the infill site which we will submit at our expense(£866)

    if this all worked out we would then submit our own building plans say by year end with our own architect in the further back position in the site.

    am I correct in thinking that all these submissions / approvals / building foundations would need to be done by Dec-22 (five years from original OPP granted?)

    thanks !


    The first condition on your outline approval usually gives the time scale. It normally says that you must apply for Reserved Matters within 5 years. It looks like that has happened and been approved, albeit it for a house you don't want. That new Jan 21 Full Approval will again, in the first condition give a timescale for legal commencement, normally two years.

    If you are to apply for a different house type it will not be under the old Outline but will be a new Full, stand alone, planning application. Obviously the precedent has been set under the current approval and as long as your scale, massing and ridge heights are not out of sync you should be ok. 

    Your only rick is if your application is slow and is drifting towards the expiry date of the current approval. At that stage you would be advised to commence the approved house, making sure you perform all the pre-commencement conditions such as sight lines and perhaps submitting a landscape plan for approval.

  11. 4 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    The BOE do produce the stats and I think they're available at regional level. From memory it was around 2.5% >30 years in the early 2000's to around 30% now. About a 1000% increase. 

    Today's house buying will be retiring at 70 on a pittance but why would the current crop of politicians care. They'll be dead. 

    the only thing local politicians can do is zone more land to increase the supply of new housing but there are no votes in that.

  12. 16 hours ago, G Down said:

    Thanks so much to all for your input, I own a home with mortgage .. wife and 2 young kids, wife is looking to move to a new/ newish detached house with nice garden etc, I appreciate that raw materials have increased etc. but can't justify paying prices that houses are currently especially new builds that generally tend to be small houses with box gardens , in my humble opinion it's madness, approx, 2years ago I would have been able to get a good house for 215k, ( max budget I'd be comfortable with) today same houses wd cost over 290k, I'm just going to sit this out and visit the market again in 6 months, hoping a correction has occured, then again prices could keep on rising for some daft reason.

    not trying to encourage you but you will equally be getting more for the sale of your own house now. It is the overall increase in debt as a result of the move that you will have to look at. Same applies if house prices start to fall-yours goes down too. whilst the gap to move up may decrease banks retract into their shell.

  13. 19 hours ago, zamo said:

    Not if the Government can stop it.

    4 x joint mortgages is pretty standard.

    95% mortgages start this week....

    Very average salary of £25k each gets you 200k purchasing power.

    I like to compare houses to their 2005 lpsni value.

    I feel that if it's roughly the same as 16 years ago then it is reasonable value.

    3 Blenheim drive above was 125k rateable value in 2005.

    The last time the banks fueled the boom by dishing out the money 100%, 105% no questions asked with self certified income reports.

    Its no where near that now.

  14. Always to give advice on this matter as I have a vested Interest.

    Despite that I am always nervous when prices rise fast as if it keeps going there is only one outcome. However, the cost increases we are seeing in the industry are eyewatering (from 10% on some materials to 40%. I have never experienced anything like it. is hyper inflation here?

    that only impacts the new-build market and we make up less than 20% of the market but the newbuild market will be forced up in price.

  15. On 09/04/2021 at 17:37, Cocopops said:

    Hi folks,

    I keep a wee eye on this forum as I'm really interested in this stuff but wanted to get your advice if possible on how to move forward with my first step into the world of buying. My wife and I have found a house we both think is near enough perfect and the asking price is within budget. It's in a popular area however where houses regularly go over asking so I think our chances are probably not the greatest unless we get a mortgage >90% which I'm reluctant to do. If we got it at asking, we could put 10% down. Is it worth throwing our hat into the ring as FTB's? We're obviously chain free and the house on sale is chain free so could that give us a bit more of a leg up? 


    I would speak to a mortgage advisor first. I would ask for quotes for 5 or even 10 year fix rather than a two year teaser. 

  16. On 08/04/2021 at 19:53, Canyon78 said:

    Sorry for being Belfast focused but  I'm pretty sure this trend is everywhere. 

    The number of houses for sale in Belfast on propertypal dipped below 1200 this week. I'm pretty sure this is the lowest I have seen in the last few years. I know its seasonal as well. 

    Does anyone know the usual numbers for this time of year. When are highs and lows?

    Also what were the numbers around 2006 to 2007? 

    And finally whats the driving force behind it? And the future?

    Sorry just looking people's options and see where my own biases are in my thinking I currently have a deposit and I'm looking to buy. 


    there actually was a thread on here years ago that tracked the number of houses on propertynews. I cant remember the numbers.

    Firstly a lot of the available houses has been booked.

    Secondly, in a rising market people hold back placing their house on the market using the dangerous logic they will get even more for it in a few months time. For people offloading houses they bought in 2006 this is somewhat understandable. They may feel they could get what they paid for it.

    However, as I say, dangerous logic. 

  17. If the 'spare' 5 acres is decent agri condition then it could have a value of £25k to £40k which brings the cost of the actual site down to £60k to £75k for comparison sake. if it has good lake views then its up to you to value how much that is worth to you.

    For build cost start at £100 per sq foot. the price goes down the bigger the house gets so a 3,500 sq foot house will be cheaper per sq foot than a 1,200 sq foot house. However, we are experiencing massive inflation at the moment 40% in timber for example.

    Passive Housing is a lifestyle as much as a building standard and whilst your heating costs will be lower it is not an attempt to save money. it costs you extra but people do it as a way they want to live. 

    Current Building Control standards go quite a way todwards that in insulation levels and air tightness. we are about to go to 'near zero' which will save you a little more in heating etc but will cost the typical house an extra £5k to £8k.

    My view is to go for the best insulation you can and therefore reduce the heating load required. whether that heating supply is provided by oil, gas or air source (read coal fired electric supply) is less important.

    Passive is largely around south facing glazing allowing the sun to heat up the concrete fabric of the house and this heat is released from the concrete walls and floors later in the night. there is also a lot of emphasis on heat recovery from the mechanical ventilation system. basically using electricity to harvest what would otherwise be waste heat. think of what heat your standard dryer pumps out through a hole in the wall or the heat from your shower waster running into the nearby river.

    All possible but expensive. I would guess an extra £24k to £30k to comply to save about £300 pa.


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