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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by BelfastVI

  1. Q2 2021 NIRPPI REPORT Link Quarter Change +2.9% Annual Change +9% Number of Sales 7,187
  2. The 2007 crash was fueled by a credit boom with the banks pushing out debt with few questions asked with valuers egar to rubber stamp this. The price of property had little connection to the cost of construction. The banks are certainly not doing that now and NI houseprices (thankfully) are no where near 2007 prices. Prices today would have to grow by over 50% to reach 2007 levels. What we have is a massive shortage of supply coupled with a boom in demand caused mainly by a change in lifestyle choices as a result of lockdown (my opinion). Low interest rates (10y fixed repayment at sub 4%) means the cost of ownership is much less than the cost of renting in many cases and this fuels decisions. We are also seeing a massive increase in cost of construction. I am hoping some of this will ease but it will never return to where it was with the cost to construct increasing by around 10%.
  3. Yes, if the garage is part of the approved planning permission. Provided you first comply with any pre-commencement conditions such as forming sightlines, submitting and obtaining approval of land scaping etc. Any clause that states "before commencement of.." needs to be sorted before you excavate the foundations. You can then apply for a Commencement of Legal Development Certificate (may be slightly different wording, where Planning Service, for a fee will confirm that the Planning Approval has been legally commenced.
  4. The only impact local politicians have had on house prices in NI is their continuous practice limiting supply via no area plans and the slowest planning system in these islands. At a national level the only decision to have any impact in the Covit era was the STAMP holiday which had little impact here as it was free up to £125k in any event.
  5. I am a big fan of McWilliams but he is talking about house prices in Dublin which are on a different planet They have the surrounding areas busy de-zoning land. what could possibly go wrong. Dublin has a major housing crisis. Rents are falling with people being able to work from home but to rent a bedroom in a house was €2,400 per month and multi-national funds, who had been given major tax breaks, are buying up all the newbuild in the city. The average price in Dublin is €380,000 (£325,000), Belfast is £142,000 (43% of Dublin Prices).
  6. SDLT was free up to £125k and was 2% on anything over that to £250k. with the average NI house sale of £150k the normal SDLT payment would be £3k. Removal of this, at best should only increase prices by that £3k or 2%. I think when you get into very expensive houses this would become a factor. we are booking houses today that will complete long after this SDLT holiday is over and it is not a factor.
  7. Q1 2021 NIRPPI REPORT LINK Quarter Change +1.1% Annual Change +6% Q4 Sales figure revised up from 7,401 to 8,063 Number of sales 6,732 (Increase of 26% on Q1 last year but allowance for Covid needs to be made)
  8. The first condition on your outline approval usually gives the time scale. It normally says that you must apply for Reserved Matters within 5 years. It looks like that has happened and been approved, albeit it for a house you don't want. That new Jan 21 Full Approval will again, in the first condition give a timescale for legal commencement, normally two years. If you are to apply for a different house type it will not be under the old Outline but will be a new Full, stand alone, planning application. Obviously the precedent has been set under the current approval and as long as your scale, massing and ridge heights are not out of sync you should be ok. Your only rick is if your application is slow and is drifting towards the expiry date of the current approval. At that stage you would be advised to commence the approved house, making sure you perform all the pre-commencement conditions such as sight lines and perhaps submitting a landscape plan for approval.
  9. the only thing local politicians can do is zone more land to increase the supply of new housing but there are no votes in that.
  10. not trying to encourage you but you will equally be getting more for the sale of your own house now. It is the overall increase in debt as a result of the move that you will have to look at. Same applies if house prices start to fall-yours goes down too. whilst the gap to move up may decrease banks retract into their shell.
  11. 20 to 25 years still the norm and must be repayment
  12. The last time the banks fueled the boom by dishing out the money 100%, 105% no questions asked with self certified income reports. Its no where near that now.
  13. Always to give advice on this matter as I have a vested Interest. Despite that I am always nervous when prices rise fast as if it keeps going there is only one outcome. However, the cost increases we are seeing in the industry are eyewatering (from 10% on some materials to 40%. I have never experienced anything like it. is hyper inflation here? that only impacts the new-build market and we make up less than 20% of the market but the newbuild market will be forced up in price.
  14. I would speak to a mortgage advisor first. I would ask for quotes for 5 or even 10 year fix rather than a two year teaser.
  15. there actually was a thread on here years ago that tracked the number of houses on propertynews. I cant remember the numbers. Firstly a lot of the available houses has been booked. Secondly, in a rising market people hold back placing their house on the market using the dangerous logic they will get even more for it in a few months time. For people offloading houses they bought in 2006 this is somewhat understandable. They may feel they could get what they paid for it. However, as I say, dangerous logic.
  16. If the 'spare' 5 acres is decent agri condition then it could have a value of £25k to £40k which brings the cost of the actual site down to £60k to £75k for comparison sake. if it has good lake views then its up to you to value how much that is worth to you. For build cost start at £100 per sq foot. the price goes down the bigger the house gets so a 3,500 sq foot house will be cheaper per sq foot than a 1,200 sq foot house. However, we are experiencing massive inflation at the moment 40% in timber for example. Passive Housing is a lifestyle as much as a building standard and whilst your heating costs will be lower it is not an attempt to save money. it costs you extra but people do it as a way they want to live. Current Building Control standards go quite a way todwards that in insulation levels and air tightness. we are about to go to 'near zero' which will save you a little more in heating etc but will cost the typical house an extra £5k to £8k. My view is to go for the best insulation you can and therefore reduce the heating load required. whether that heating supply is provided by oil, gas or air source (read coal fired electric supply) is less important. Passive is largely around south facing glazing allowing the sun to heat up the concrete fabric of the house and this heat is released from the concrete walls and floors later in the night. there is also a lot of emphasis on heat recovery from the mechanical ventilation system. basically using electricity to harvest what would otherwise be waste heat. think of what heat your standard dryer pumps out through a hole in the wall or the heat from your shower waster running into the nearby river. All possible but expensive. I would guess an extra £24k to £30k to comply to save about £300 pa.
  17. of a specific property yes, in Land Registry but unlike England it is not free or easy to access.
  18. there is serious increases in building costs. Inflation is here!
  19. SDLT duty, for first time purchasers was basically free in Ni (all houses under £150k) for some time. there have been low interest rates for several years. I don't agree borrowing is lax.
  20. The Pandemic has actually increased demand and thus prices as people revaluated their living accommodation, made and are continuing to make decisions to mover to better accommodation. All the time there are constraints on supply - slow planning no new zoning of land. Brexit and Covid together have increased the cost of build substantially.
  21. In most 'traditional built' houses the ceilings and most of the upstairs internal walls are formed in timber studs or joists and plasterboard. If constructed right there should be no problems. Timber frame houses can be build to a higher air tightness level. but if depends who you go for the kit. If its the cheapest quote then expect the problems referred to above. If you go for the established more professional firms you will get a better product. Traditional is still cheapest but if you are self managing you will have more trades and materials to look after. As for build cost allow £100 per sq foot. With kitchen, tiling and carpets etc this can end up at £120 per sq' foot (depending on your spec). With one off houses you may also have the costs of a long laneway. if you have the electric already at the house that can save you quite a bit.
  22. I see Q4 2019 sales numbers have indeed been revised up from the 6021, as first published to 6,757 (736 increase). The Q4 2018 figures were similarly revised up by, in that case over 1,000 units so it would be safe to assume that Q4 2020 will over time be revised up as well. My comparison of 17% was the first release of Q4 2020 with first release Q4 2019. we can look back in a years time and review. It is t no one's surprise that the overall 2020 sales numbers were down given the complete shutdown over a number of months. I think all, including myself have been surprised at the speed of the rebound. Looking at ant quarter of 2020 and comparing it to others is perhaps unfair because of the year it was.
  23. Q4 2020 NIRPPI REPORT LINK Quarter Change +3% Annual Change +5.3% Number of Sales 7,401 (17% increase on Q4 2019)
  24. It is all very interesting and with nothing set in stone it is impossible to make major strategic decisions to relocate. However I imagine manufactures in England have been putting off expansion plans for that very reason. If the dice rolls a certain way NI may be the only location that can export, without taffifs to bot GB and the UK. That may place it at an advantage over ROI and GB for an English speaking location. Had we obtained the power to set our own C Tax then we could have become a player. Re the block grant there are many parts of GB that run at a neg tax/grant with sometimes areas in the north of England in even worse positions. however, I agree it would not be a good idea to keep reminding English Nationalists.
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