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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by xyz

  1. The only way Scotland won't crash is if they have a miraculous supply of cheap mortgage products that can't be got elsewhere in the UK. No? Didn't think so Bring on the crash then...
  2. It's all b***shit. I have a 3.0 V6 petrol and my husband has a 1.9 diesel. I already pay loads more tax via my petrol costs and am not chuffed to see my road tax leap up too. However, relative to the cost of buying the car, the tax is nothing.
  3. We have one deputy headmaster and one senior lecturer in this house = pretty good income (from teaching) and enough brains to know not to waste our money on overpriced houses...
  4. It doesn't have to be a choice between establishing a career and having a family. I was down in London last week and swung a rather large contract despite being 7 months pregnant and noone once thought that my situation would have any consequence for how the contract would be carried out. I ask anyone to look at my CV and spot where I had my family because you can't. You can do both and yes, child care is expensive but if you choose wisely you could be paying for quality education for your kids and so I don't begrudge a penny. I am also a more efficient worker because I can't wait to get home every night to be with my family rather than working long hours because that's current UK culture. There is no way anyone can honestly say they can't afford to have kids because once they arrive the posh house, sports car (yes, never once believed I'd buy an estate car as I needed a bigger boot for a double buggy!), iPOD, etc won't matter to you - your kids will. And frankly they are worth more than any mortgage/ dream of home ownership OR career.
  5. This really annoys me. I am a graduate (3 degrees) with a great career, a great family and another kid on the way. You can have it all. What I don't have is a house, it's not that we can't afford one, it's just that I am not prepared to pay £200K for an ex-council tiny box. Now, we have a long term rent until we find a place we really want to live and I don't need to worry about paying off debt whilst shelling out on high child care costs because renting is cheap. And yes, maybe I am a little less concerned as we inadvertently STRd (moved area - never found anything we liked at a price we'd be prepared to pay) and have a bit of cash in the bank. I have read a number of posts from people saying they have had to buy as they have young children. Rubbish - I am quite firmly of the belief that my kids will not be in any way disadvantaged by growing up in rented accommodation. In reality any woman claiming that she can't have kids because of the cost of having a mortgage should find a cheaper way to live if she really wants to have that family.
  6. Just had a baby ourselves (Christmas). Everyone pushed us to buy when they found out about the pregnancy (family, etc) but we still rent. We rent a big house with half an acre of grounds for less than it would cost to service the mortgage on a council semi with no garden. This way our baby has a better quality of life and he hasn't once mentioned the stigma of having parents who rent (unlike our relatives...). We are saving hard and putting money into other investments so that one day, if we decide to buy a house, our mortgage will be smaller. My only advice to you is do not overstretch yourselves on a mortgage as the little one is a complete money drain but worth every penny!
  7. For those wondering about Aberdeen there were definitely significant price falls there last time round even though "prices never fall in Scotland" - I know, we lived through it. There is an oversupply of property at the moment and yet because of the anticipated September bounce many properties are going on at higher and higher prices. Remember these things: 1. At the peak of the boom, properties were selling for massive amounts over the O/O price and this premium has mostly decreased. Therefore to attain the same selling price, asking prices have to rise 2. Scotland has been exposed to the same economic pressures as the rest of the UK - low IRS, low (now climbing) inflation, debt bubble and rampant HPI, why would we be immune to an HPC? I think we are just a bit further back on the downward swing of the curve. The laws of supply and demand still apply here.. 3. The Scots are totally obsessed with house prices. Pick up any Quentin Jardine or Ian Rankin novel from 2000 onwards and neither or them can make it through the book without bleating on about how much money their fictional characters have made in the Edinburgh Property Market. Then go talk to your house owning friends and neighbours - you'll find the majority of them patting themselves on the back because of their sound investment which they reckon is better than any pension scheme and will always rise by inlfation busting amounts each year
  8. As an inadvertant STRer I think there is a difference in attitude between STRs and FTBs. There have been a few smug comments from STRers over the years along the lines of "I have liquid assets so I'm OK" which must be fairly annoying to someone trying to save a deposit, pay off student debts and seeing house prices continuously rise (until recently). I haven't bought because I don't want to - not because I can't; this housing bubble must be much more frustrating for FTBs who fall into the latter category
  9. For some people at least, the decision to delay starting a family is financial and part of that cost does come from high house prices. Whilst in our 20s there is no way we could have afforded kids, a house big enough to keep them in, 2 sets of students debts and running a car to get to work because living in a commuter zone was cheaper than living closer to work. Jump forward two years we now rent a far larger house for less than our previous mortgage, transport costs are down because we live closer to our new jobs and the impending (unplanned!) arrival of xyz junior although a time of emotional change is not impacting on us financially except that we will have less to put into our savings each month. Yes, we can't really nest-build in our rented home but the landlord had done it up quite nicely anyway and I'm damned sure our kid won't blame us for shunning debt and refusing to be homeowners at this time.
  10. I think quite a few people feel like this. We STR'd - inadvertantly at first becuase we got outbid a few times after we'd had to move for our jobs. Now I think it was the best thing that happened to me because I took time out to look at the facts and try to figure out what my best options were (ie to rent and save as much as poss each month). However I do worry that if the crash is as bad as some on here predict that some of my firneds and O/O neighbours will get badly burnt. You will find a lot of cavalier 'stuff them' attitudes out there but an HPC will not be pretty...
  11. What is actually amazing me is how widely this is being reported, which to me just seems to reek of deperation
  12. You made your own choice and you are happy with it so that's fine. But really if prices drop further (by>10%) are you happy to stay in a 3 bed semi for the long term?
  13. Let me see, higher oil prices lead to higher inflations leads to coporate belt tightening leads to higher unemployment leads to an INCREASE in property prices. Don't think so... I think it far more likely that VIs will cite oil as the reason FOR the crash
  14. According to MyHousePrice.com, the average house price in St Andrews stood at just over £264K in December 2004 and in June 2005 at just over 205K, this works out as a 19% DROP in 6 months or a 38% annual decrease in prices if this continues apace - not great in a country that never has ahd and never will have a house price crash according to EAs. (I appreciate that the relatively small amount of properties sold in the town will cause large fluctuations in the mean price but whether you look at mean or median, the trend since the end of last year is definitely down.) There are also a lot of properties sticking on the market and if you do a nethouseprices search on ones recently sold many have gone just over (less than £5K over) to just UNDER asking - kind of blows the 30% EAs tell us we need to offer out of the window. Cheaper house (<170K) are still selling but slowly and usually going BTL as there is a belief that you can't lose money in a small university town...
  15. And yet if you look at ESPC, even the commuter zones they mention in Fife have huge numbers of fixed price houses and stock sitting on the market for ages. I would wonder how much of this is truely about people moving out of the capital and how much is about prices falling in Edinburgh first with areas further out likely to fall later on in a sort of ripple effect
  16. The problem is the materialistic nature of society in the UK today where people believe that having a BMW/ other status symbol is necessary. Spend it like Beckham...
  17. Ed, could it be that you are trying to convince yourself and not us that there is little chance of falls >20% as this would impact adversely on your BTL investments? BTW it might be worth taking a bit of a looking at what is actually happening in and around universities. A higher and higher number of students are opting to stay at home during uni because they can't afford to stay away from home in an age of high tuition fees and facing high debt upon graduation. Many universities are having problems recruiting enough students to fill courses so we can't assume that the student population will just keep on rising. Plus it is a myth to believe that the "new" BTL landlords are all a bit thick with respect to where they bought their investments...university towns have seen some of the most phenomenal BTL bubbles imaginable. There is still an element of supply and demand at play here and if student numbers don't increase, yet rental stock continues its exponential dose then rents will have to fall...
  18. Moncs, it is always incredibly difficult to call the market - I would have thought prices would have been falling faster by now. If I was your father I'd probably put the house on the market for a stupidly high price and see if someone bites. We did that when we STRd and some nutter went way over asking to a level similar houses still haven't acheived over a year on. And I'd do that NOW. Then I'd rent cheaply and let the money in the bank make interest for my glorious retirement. This time next year he may get a lot less than he would now...
  19. I thought the biggest falls were actually in the borders, granted a bit of a commuter zone for Edinburgh. Also, it is worth remembering that all of Scotland has had a property boom like never before this time and that it has been brought on by the same factors as in England. This has to do with more than just the parliament.
  20. The interest rate thing is bothering me a bit - not because I think IRs will have too much effect on the crash - it will probably happen even if they hit 0%. However, what does happen to IRs if we get stagflation? Higher inflation (the real target of the MPCs) should be controlled by higher IRs but if the economy goes into recession then higher IRs will make the business environment even tougher? So then what?
  21. Came to the site feeling somewhat wronged that my hard earned cash couldn't buy me the sort of house I wanted to live in - exactly the perspective that bulls like to shoot down. Got here, read the arguments and felt relief that I wasn't the only one who thought the world had gone crazy. I used to visit for the intellectual bear v bull arguments but now that the bear perspective is starting to play out it all feels so unreal.
  22. 2005 - Mrs xyz pregnant and able to go part time for 1 year ONLY because of STR and no longer being mortgage slaves. 2 years ago so heavily endebted with mortgage and loans that we couldn't afford to have a child. Currently 2 members of Mrs xyz's team at work admit to being unable to afford a family. Yesterday Mr xyz (headmaster) was threatened with a blade in school, 2 weeks after car was vandilized (at the school) and in a week in which 2 of his staff have gone off sick with stress following assaults by pupils. Grandad (to be) xyz's best mate has just retired from same job as grandad did 8 years ago (early retirment) and got only 25% of the lump sum that grandad did. Granny (to be -other side) xyz waited several months for breast cancer treatment - good old NHS. Mr xyz's mate and his wife (both unemployed) have divorced but still live together although the council don't know that so she gets a hige whack of benefits (for self and 3 kids) and help paid for by Mr and Mrs xyz and all their hard-working tax paying (other) friends. Yes, isn't life in the UK 2005 great...NOT
  23. Pick a couple of properties of the type that you would be interested in buying (ignoring prices of course), note the fixed price and check out nethouseprices in a couple of months and see what they actually sold for. Here they are regularly selling under the FP value. We have actually had a far bigger bubble in St Andrews than occurred in Edinburgh and the slowdown is well under way. There are still properties going on at high prices and there are still some muppets buying but there has been a massive slowdown with loads more FP properties springing up. In one street EAs are actually putting each successive house that goes up for sale on at a lower price.
  24. How morally bankrupt can the UK people be? Surely noone could be comfortable with the idea of going to a poorer country and buying up the housing stock? The BBC just keep stooping to new lows...
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