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About bemused40

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  1. The conclusion appears to be that house prices will fall somewhere between single digits and 25%. How does that constitute a denial? On the contrary, its the sort of well-balanced piece that is sadly lacking from the hysterical comments that usually dominate the HM debate.
  2. I think there is far too narrow a focus on this issue. The point of the BoE intervention is not just about the housing market, its about saving the banking system. Believe me, you don't want the banking system to fail because the repercussions for us all are unquantifiable. Yes, you will get your 40% HPC (and some) but you will find the those "affordable" properties are not so affordable if you don't have a job (assuming there are any financial institutions left to lend money!) yes, the banks have been profligate, but if a doctor is faced with a heart attack patient, his first priority is to save the patient - lectures about diet and lifestyle can wait til he's recovered.
  3. If BTL is his business, then interest is a legitimate cost and he is entitled to treat it as such in the same way that any other business can deduct legitimate cost from his gross income. You wouldn't tax a retailer on his gross sales - you tax him in the profit he makes after deducting the cost of his stock and overheads. If BTL is a sideline, then the capital the BTLer puts up is also coming from taxed income in the same way as it is from an owner-occupier. And if you treated them any differently, amateur BTLs could easily set up as companies. The problem is that you're all looking for someone to blame for the state of the housing market, but it isn't any-specific-body's fault - its just economics. Markets go up, get overheated, and come down again, but in the long-run, they tend to go up. Its just nature, its not anybody's fault. Oh, and thank you for that informed comment, FP.
  4. 1. I was asked about the state of my bowels. 2. That was to prove the state of my bowlels - that's why I said "for what its worth" 3. It is like a cult - not for the views you espouse, but for the way you put them forward, and for the way you treat people who don't agree. 4. BTLs are taxed on their income, and on realised capital gains. What would you do? Tax them on unrealised gains which you are certain are about to be wiped out anyway? How do you tax rental income at source - trust the tennants to send it to Gordon Brown? 5. People have made lots of assumptions about me! 6. The market is not falsely inflated. It is unsustainably inflated by a natural process of supply and demand. The same forces are now bringing it back to its "natural" equilibrium, but I suspect that will be at a level much higher than you think. 7. You may be right in the short term, but equally I'd bet that a lot of the write-downs will be written back in time. 8. I wasn't the bloke drinking the wine in the first place - that was some bloke called Dominic who you apparently erroneously mistook for a daytime TV presenter.
  5. There's actually a number of questions I'd like to answer - I'll start with geneer. No, I'm not shitting myself. For what its worth my mortgage is well covered and I don't intend moving for a long time, so I lose no sleep whatsoever about what's going to happen to the market over the next year or two, nor have I ever posted on a property website before. I first visited after seeing Jonathan Davis on Channel 4 news, and was curious to find out why such a site existed. I have to say, I've found it both absolutely fascinating and utterly bewildering. Its like a strange religious cult, where JD is your guru, the notion of a house price crash is not so much an opinion as an act of faith, and anybody who doesn't agree is a heretic who should be burned at the stake! That's why I've chosen the quote above. Why do you regard me as a "scum bag" because I happen to disagree with you (slightly - I still think we're in a downturn) on the subject of house prices? I disagree with lots of people about lots of things,but I don't hate them for it. Calm down a bit - its not like I insulted your mother or anything! Moving on to "macfarlan", yes, there is a lot of what you would term "property porn" on the telly, but its for entertainment - don't take it too seriously! But newspapers have been screaming "property crash" every time one of the major indices shows any sign of slowdown for years. And that programme on Monday was far from the first time Jonathan Maitland has told us we're all doomed. And none of you can claim to have been right regardless of what happens in future - you've just proved that if you say something for long enough you're bound to be right eventually. This site was founded nearly 5 years ago. Even if you get your "30-40% crash" you'll still only be back roughly to where you started. So "slumpmonkey" as currently resident "VI (vested interest?) scum bag" I will try and answer your question. Yes, I have genuine sympathy with those who find themselves priced out of the market, but to blame it on Property Ladder-inspired amateur buy-to-letters is just daft. That's just the froth on the capuccino. The bulk of the property boom is due to people making rational decisions about their own circumstances - taking advantage of cheap credit in a low interest/low inflation environment to take out mortgages they can afford, to buy their own homes rather than rent. There is a shortage of (the right type of - I exclude city centre flats from this) housing, so prices are forced up. For most of these people, it has proved to be the correct course. Now that credit conditions have changed, an unfortunate minority will find that they are struggling to keep up payments. Why do you wish on them the misery of negative equity? And what about the BTLs? What would you have done - banned people from becoming landlords? Its a free country, and as many people choose to rent, there clearly is a need to be catered for. Anyway, I think I'm starting to get it now. The vitriolic attitudes on this board seem to be the result of envy of those who are on the ladder, by those who've been priced out or, worse still, took a concious decision to stay out a few years ago because they thought then that prices would fall. Now that would really hurt.
  6. How come this thread's suddenly been moved to page 2? Is it coz I'm not "on message"???
  7. Has it occurred to you that the bloke cited in the example at the top wasn't talking about maths at all? Maybe he just meant that it didn't really matter if his house value fell back to what he paid for it, because he bought the house to live in and doesn't intend to sell it anytime soon. That's the reality for most of us home owners - our houses are promarily places to live, rather than investments. Though in the long-term, i'll bet that the value of mine goes up, regardless of what happens over the next year or two.
  8. Hallelujah - someone who isn't totally derranged! I find very amusing that somebody on this board can be so viciously lampooned for claiming to be a property "expert" by the same people who claim to be absolutely 100% certain about what is going to happen to the market in future, but the irony is clearly lost on most on here. Equally ludicrous is the assertion that Kirsty Alsop is responsible for the housing boom. Yes, she may have encouraged a few people into the property development game, but why not? Some of those people would have made money out of it, and good luck to them - that's what capitalism is all about. If some are losing because the took it up too late - too bad, that's the risk you take. However, the view that sufficient people have taken the decision on the back of "property porn" shows to make a difference to the market overall is plainly laughable. The market has boomed because we live on a small island where property is in short supply, the planning process restrictive and the population growing rapidly, fuelled by a strong economy and easy credit. Its weakening now because of the credit crunch, but that is a short-term problem which will pass, whilst the demographics won't change. That's why I doubt the correction will be anything like as bad as you all think, and I really can't understand why hoding such a view is so objectionable to people on here. Why do you hold an opinion on something like house prices with such religious zeal? And its nowt to do with Kirsty Alsop.
  9. [Face it, you and your ilk have screwed this country royally. 1.4 trillion in debt and a generation either priced out, or up to their neck in debt. Not sure what's more ridiculous - the ranting extremism on this board, or blaming the property boom on daytime TV presenters!!!
  10. You're an IFA - how does that make you a property expert?
  11. Still waiting to hear what Jonathan Davis's qualiifications as a property expert are.... ...waiting....
  12. Is that that much different from an IFA faking it as a property expert?
  13. I thought Jonathan Davies made a complete **** of himself. "When will the media wake up to the fact that the country is facing the biggest housing market crash ever"???? The media has been talking about little else for months - that's why this bloke is rarely off our screens these days, though what his credentials are for being regarded as an "expert" are (other than this site which, lets not forget, has been getting it wrong for nearly 5 years!) I'm not sure. Even if he gets his "30-40%" correction, we'll only be back to roughly where we were when he started his ranting.
  14. Sorry for disturbing the Jonathon Davis love-in, but I'm finding the attitude of people on here - even the existence of the site itself - utterly bizarre. Why do you regard the possible collapse of the housing market, and financial markets generally, with such undisguised glee? I can only assume you haven't really thought through what the consequences of a really deep recession - depression - would be for all of us. None of us experienced the 1930's, but I'm guessing that being able to go round telling everyone "I told you so" would be scant consolation for the human misery in which we would all undoubtedly share. Or do you people keep your money in boxes under the beds in your (presumably) rented houses? As for last night's performance, I can't quite share in the idol-worship of your guru. I was particularly irked by the ridiculous comment about Bentleys - not least because it was lifted straight from Roger Bootle's (another prophet of doom who's getting far too excited about the possibilityof finally, after all these years, being right) column in the Telegraph on Monday. Mr Davis may not drive a Benltey, but I'm sure he has a smaller, more practicle vehicle, in the same way that most of us live in 3-bed semis rather than 10bed mansions. The thing about houses is that unlike cars, they are a basic human need. An individual needs somewhere to live. Whether he owns or rents, someone has to own the house, and there aren't enough being built to keep pace with the population. Now I wouldn't argue with you that the market is somewhat overheated at present, but basic economics tells you that in the long-term, if there is a shortage of something, its price is more likely to go up than down. And even if JD and the rest of you are right, you haven't predicted anything - just proved the truism that if you say something for long enough, you're bound to be right eventually. This site was created in October 2003. If you look at the same HBOS survey that got you all so excited yesterday, you'll see that house prices are up about 40% since then, so a fairly severe (c30%) correction will only take you back to where you started. How much have you mugs paid in rent since then, while I've been paying down my mortgage?
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