the_duke_of_hazzard

I'm doing this for fun/as a learning exercise rather than necessarily to take over the world. But I'm thinking that tracking: - asking price per square foot - against time and - against location and making a 4-d graph would be fun. Throwing in interest rates might be fun too.

One step at a time...

Has anyone done or got experience of this? I'm getting a load of data from Rightmove and the Land Registry and am putting together some models. I'm doing this mostly as a learning exercise.

I said this once to some Greek colleagues and they laughed in my face. “Bless you, you British have no idea what corruption is.”

Where's that?

Looking on Rightmove maps at which properties are actually moving within 14 days around SE21, it's clear that it's the low end and the top end that's moving. I haven't found anything in the 'middle' that's gone at all (2-3 bed decent homes between 600-900K). I'd surmise from that the people buying are those with lots of cash, or those looking to buy in at the low end.

The bond market is left wing establishment. I've heard it all now.

Bring back the krays, eh?

Thanks, but I meant the ultimate source for this bit: UK investors pulled a net £26 billion from UK funds in calendar 2022 and that money is not showing up in increased savings figures or workplace pension schemes.

Source?

I obviously didn't make it clear enough that the actual topic of this thread is not mortgage approval numbers dropping, but the average size of the mortgages granted. These are two independent variables. The steep drop in average mortgage size could indicate: - pricier end of the market has stalled (no big mortgages taken out), and/or - lenders are becoming more risk averse, and/or - prices are dropping

That's number of mortgage approvals, right? This is size of the mortgages granted, which is a different metric.

I wasn't aware of this - see first graph: https://builtplace.com/market-commentary-january-2023/ Since this may imply that the lower end of the market is holding up, this would suggest that pricier properties are going to be much harder hit in the coming months. Bonus analysis suggests a 20% fall in prices is baked in.

Up 1.1% annually

I've seen this too. Will get examples when I'm less drunk.

Before the bills landed on the mat....

Aside from all the other reasons this won't work mentioned above, weren't they temporarily based in conference centres and the like rather than buildings dedicated to hospital care? They just don't exist anymore.

I remember: - Listening to someone talk for about 2 hours in a meeting about the hold music for their phone line. He must have said 'I want something more funky' about 80 times. - Editing a powerpoint presentation by someone who had worked for McKinsey before joining boo. The deck was clearly (to my naive 23 year old mind) full of nonsense. It was basically a series of graphs of growth pointing upwards. The changes were trivial but considered priority 1 for the whole business. She was about to fly first-class to New York to deliver the presentation. - A floppy-haired, older man who very much saw himself as the alpha. He seemed to be looking for arguments or confrontations to have with people as he pointed his finger around the office. - Cos I was interested in IT, I got to talk to the techies there. They looked very relaxed about the whole thing. All this, and no actual revenue coming into the business. I felt like shouting 'the emperor has no clothes!' all the time. But they paid me well to edit MS Office documents while I was there. Meanwhile Jeff Bezos was running a lean, customer focussed business called Amazon selling books. I doubt he was obsessing over the funkiness or not of the hold music.

I temped for boo.com. The waste there and self-important fools walking around the office talking nonsense was incredible.

He's predicted 17 of the last 3 collapses, like me and many on here. A stopped clock etc

Peak: 293,992 Dec: 281,272 3.5% down?

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals

https://mobile.twitter.com/propertylog/status/1610278181550067713

A&E has always had long wait times if you go at the wrong time of day/week. Also, a broken bone is obviously not life-threatening and easily treated with painkillers, so doesn't get priority. I once went in (around 2000) with a fishbone stuck in my throat expecting a very long wait, was seen in 10 minutes.