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House Price Crash Forum

kiwi

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About kiwi

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    HPC Poster
  1. thats a good thing, the usa only has to nationalise 5 banks and that would mean a huge netting of exposures, resulting in less risk to all..... the us is now commited to keeping all 5 alive until the contracts roll out.... and to make sure newe contracts are on exchange with posted margin etc and better oversight... they can do it they have to the alternative is the endd of days as we know them.... I fear more for the people of japan, its falling into a huge hole caused by plummeting demand for its exports demograhics etc very sad to watch
  2. kiwi

    Rent Increase

    we just asked our landlord to reduce rent from 700 to 650 . done a few days later... easy as.
  3. the train has clearly left denial and is arrieving at anger....
  4. if i where her i would take 500, change it to NZD before the pound collapses and come buy a lifestyle out here, get out now!
  5. the only sellers will be forced sales / repos as everyone else will be off the market as they will be in negitive equity.... its will very quickly put a floor under the market at around 100-120k IMHO.... most importantly at these levels say 60-100k the gummint can start to build new houses on cheap land for people.....creating employment desperately needed.... if the FSA and gummint play this it can be seen as a positive, and all those who have lost will have to shut up as they will be put into the greedy speculator camp.... a plan so cunning you could pin a tail on it.....
  6. yes domestic demand if they cant do this chineese leaders will die a messy death so its safe to assume they will die trying - called a cheap trade
  7. RB - Gold is heading back to the 825-850 area to shake out the weak hands several reasons middle eastern countries budgeted for oil at $60 this year and now they cant balance there budgets... they where net buyers of gold way lower now they are selling some reserves. demand for jewelerry in arab counties and india is flat.... no dosh go public is long.... that said its very interesting that normally gold is sold to public at the top in massive amounts, right now in many countries advertising is out there wanting to buy gold.... off joe public... in total collapse any gold will be a good thing, perhaps have 5% of your worth in gold, its an insurance policy re currencies I would be long AUDJPY currently 64.2
  8. dont blame the school for a failed pupil, blame the student and perhaps the parents I have seen lots of examples of people rising above there below average education / school to get top bankers jobs.... and enginerring degres, become doctors etc a thick child at a good school will still be a thick adult, life teaches lessons and some just want to keep repeating them... now that the hpc is here this website has become crap, everyone is blaming everything and trying to promote themselves as financial gurus.... you got your crash... done.
  9. no one talks about soft landing anymore lets hope we can walk away from this one.... merry xmas and happy new year to all, may 2009 bless your familly. Kiwi
  10. you are staring house price deflation and deflation in general in the face int he uk you are the new japan..... in the uk a 3 bed room shit box is worth what a sea side mansion costs in NZ and without investment banks you cant make the dosh to keep the ponzi going...... gummint are desperate to blow up the bubble, but all the kings horses cant put kirsty together again fat cow
  11. internationally futures markets are calling 44 -50 % from peak, this is reasonable given current us price reaction but the ARM hit to prime mortgaes may take us lower yet this is not the bottom you fool look at japan, ouch.... ZIRP here we come
  12. securitisation removed from banks the importance of managing their mortgage books in future i thinl banks will have to keep mortgage on balance sheet once they do this the central bank can change the reserve requirements at various points in the cycle to manage loose cah in the system the base cash rate is a blunt tool how about this, compulsary savings tax say another 0.5% on top of your mortgage... as the market heats up the central bank can up this tax, it goes into state run managed fubnds so you will get your money back..... boom and bust aye, this is a dousey bust but unless you outlaw capitalism we are all hoping for the next boom to come along with great big buy now signs on it! so we know where the bottom is... the next boom will come from the huge population base of 15-25 year olds across asia.... they will marry have kids etc and create the next big spending spree.... of course that wont help the developed world much unles you have capital left to invest in asian firms..... sell most asset classes here and invest in a mix of cash usd , yen, euro, renimbi, aud, cad, nzd oh yeah and some gold, as one loses others gain..... wealth preservation is about preserving your position rather then bettiogn the farm..... having lived in the uk for 8 years i pity you the next 10 , willl be hard when you cant walk tot he beach from your homes... you shouls have left the uk for the crims and gone to aussie yourselves... oh you did...
  13. RB - on CNBC (not my fav but sometimes worth a larf...) i think crammer said "We have to let people go bankrupt, let the people with cash buy the assets cheap with no debt..... and we start over... its the way its been for 5000 years......." Benanke knows that he has to lighten the load a little but until the guys with cash start spending it there is no recovery.... and mate my wallet is closed for the next 24 months.... this is going to make the great depression look cute RB, globalisation will mean the call centers in india will be just as hard hit as the farmer in kansas.... each country will try to stir domestic demand (read protectionism....) the G20 may try but they will fail.... the best thing you can do is go sailing for a few years.
  14. if enough people post stupid statements some of them will be right, but that makes not an investment strategy.... some hedge fund find a corelation tho.... seriously if usd gets weaker gold goes up... but only for americans...... only if USD collapses (or your own currency dies in the ass....) do you win massive.... this bodes very bad for the usd... but the same medicine sp? is coming to a BoE or ECB statement near you.... the sad thing is that there is no way in hell the commodity countries can export their way out of this with a weak usd..... so what next? JPY must be causing some massive headaches its just too strong, maybe they need to print a bit more as well...... but have you actually tried to borrow money these days, you need a 20% deposit in NZ and a valuation that is actually realistic... IF you are stupid enough to buy the first 10% dip... man this is a cluster f us car makers...... organised bankruptcy they need to escape the union clutches... its lower wages and benefits for everyone from here in . the logical conclusion is a run on treasuriesi can tell you that aussie and nz paper is looking very good right now...
  15. you need to google "carry trade" its a yield play sunny the redemption flows seem to have stopped at least for xmas hols think liquidity + weak usd could mean very big moves... the mid point consolidation did not occur thus shorts from below and above now chasing EUR there are no buyers of USD here
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