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Everything posted by alexays

  1. I have some relatives who live in Frome so that is part of the reason for wanting to move down. Quite like this - Stoke St Mary with Ducks in a pond! http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30112798.html?premiumA=true Or this (bit a drive into Bristol though) http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31316794.html?premiumA=true Still not sure whether want to move down. Wife wants to spend £620K to buy a wreck with a nice garden near Guildford to do up. I am not sure I want to do that.
  2. If you had 600K or so to spend on a property and you had 2 school age kids what would you buy? Ideally within commuting distance of Bristol or somewhere with IT jobs. Would like a couple of acres or so to go with it
  3. It might not be a shit- hole but it certainly is overpriced. 3 Bed terraced house in Guildford for 650K !!!!!! http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-26865517.html
  4. Anyone in the Guildford area who wishes to talk on this tomorrow - Stoneleigh from the Automatic Earth will be discussing the Financial collapse at the Studio Rooms at the Guildford Institute on Monday June 7th at 8pm. http://www.theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/ http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2009/06/june-17-2009-40-ways-to-lose-your.html One of her predictions is : Real estate prices are likely to fall by at least 90% on average (with local variation) Obviously that's for a US audience. We will see what she has to say about the UK audience.
  5. This is tomorrow folks so please come along http://www.guildford-institute.org.uk/index.htm
  6. Stoneleigh from the Automatic Earth: http://www.theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/ is talking in Guildford on Monday 7th June 8pm in the Studio Room of the Guildford Institute. Please come along. The message she gives is extremely deflationary , although she may modify this for our consumption. She is actually English, but has emigrated to Canada. Its free although she may ask for donations to cover her costs. A couple more examples of her work from that site: 40 ways to lose your future How to build a lifeboat
  7. I posted this very question on the automatic earth website - Ilargi responded as below: https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=4921988708619968880&postID=2721422421104786807 Argentina seems a good example for a sovereign default. Slums building around cities, that sort of thing. Would state employees still be paid? Not all, and not the same money. Both the number of workers and their nominal pay will fall, likely by a lot, many services will no longer be available. Would bank savings be nominally safe? I would doubt that. I think Argentina confiscated all dollar holdings and chang
  8. I think you wrong. This time people will have so much free time on their hands that they will actually start growing something. Either that or starve. The problem for Tesco is that while in the first year people may actually buy the kit and seeds by the second and third years people will be growing their own from saved seed and sharing tools. The only real issue is how much of the produce from these allotments gets nicked. All the gear and no idea will necessarily go out of the window in the new austerity.
  9. Didn't do much for Woolworth's workers. Unless we impose tariffs on those countries without minimum wages then all we get is rising unemployment and a falling pound.
  10. Oil's definitely in a bubble. Before tax it must cost about 62 pence before to drive your average car 10 miles . I am sure if you didn't have oil we could get some polish guys to push your car 10 miles for 62 pence
  11. How long are you planning to have this investment for? If less than 3 years then I would leave it in the bank. Yes you can put it in your wife's name and she will only pay tax on it at the basic rate. It all depends on your risk tolerance. If more than 3 years then I would consider getting some expert advice - seach the discussion boards on www.fool.co.uk and also listen to the weekly podcasts from www.financialsense.com. And yes possibly some in gold. I wouldn't put it in some of the more exposed UK banks. Northern Rock might be an idea.
  12. The thing is that these figures are not mix adjusted and are not really on a large statistical base - so very volatile and pretty rubbish. Apparently Hackney was a big riser! And of course these are asking prices, so really not that relevant. Finally I am wondering whether the national figures are not a whole lot worse than London so maybe they wont be releasing them. Looking at Property Bee in Guildford I am seeing some massive falls for existing properties, so assuming new listings are also reduced I would be expecting around -3% per month about now. I still think we are going to see a >
  13. Then Phil returned August 2007 and found that they had sold the pub and the guy had become a ... .... ...... property developer. And showed his latest development. Which as of now is still for sale http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-842...21&tr_t=buy
  14. Have been shorting Easyjet since just before Christmas through a spreadbet sell on www.finspreads.com. Be aware that short-term they may bounce. Also be aware that shorting any one stock can be problematic if there is a takeover - you can lose an awful lot. So I am also short RyanAir and BA. I tend to use shorts as a general market hedge to balance my longs (mainly on oil companies such as Soco, Dana, Tullow as well as Gold and Silver etc.) So for instance now I would be tempted to put in a sell if it bounces to 470. The advice I would give is not to get greedy - if you don't get that price
  15. true, but you do know you get £9000 a year tax free (or $18,000 if you hold jointly with your spouse). And then from next april you will have to pay all of 18% on the remainder. Hands up all of you in that situation? None? Thought so.
  16. Friends since childhood, Jonathan Lowerson and Ewan Williams, both 25, have bought a three-bedroom house at £351,000 through Winkworth. They will rent out one bedroom and have an interest-only mortgage. "We are banking on the fact that house prices will rise," says Jonathan. "It is ironic that we have waited so long to do it and now we are, people are talking of a crash." They, too, couldn't have raised the deposit without help from Ewan's parents. Unbelievable.
  17. Well listening to the guys from www.financialsense.com there is a 90% chance of a depression. And reading theoildrum.com has convinced me we are pretty close to or even past the world oil production peak. So this, combined with reading books such as the collapse of complex societies by Tainter and Collapse by Diamond leads me to believe we have a good chance of ending up in this scenario: http://dieoff.org/page125.htm
  18. Top post from the fool. At 50K approvals this isn't going to be a crash its going to be a real collapse. http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=1...&sort=whole I have been banging on about the effect of reduced RMBS issuance on the housing market (i.e. the effect of the supply of credit rather than the demand for it or its price i.e. interest rate) so I thought it was about time I came up with a proper analysis of this. Cutting to the chase the implication is for a 20% - 50% cut in mortgage lending for purchases which implies that (if house prices remain roughly where they are) approv
  19. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Bank of England Governor Mervyn King today said inflation may match the fastest pace in at least a decade this year and require an explanation to the U.K. Treasury, a sign that policy makers have limited scope to cut interest rates. Slower Growth ``Inflation could rise to the level at which I would need to write an open letter of explanation, possibly more than one, to the chancellor,'' King said in a speech. ``To put it bluntly, this year we are probably facing a period of above-target inflation and a marked slowing in growth.
  20. You are in luck. The motley fool have a discussion on this: http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=10867493 I think basically a generally tanking market.
  21. I agree unless the CPI figures are SO rigged that inflation wont show up. I expect 1 maybe 2 .25 cuts in rates at most. The first one will be quite early, then even CPI will show rises so they will hold off. Then I expect further massive falls in Banks/Estate Agents in the S/M (whereas oil producers will continue to do quite nicely as the pound falls. There will be another crisis and they may have to cut interest rates again because of that.
  22. I would suggest you go to the motley fool www.fool.co.uk and check out their discussion boards. Choose best of and you will get an occasional share thread that will be of interest. After a while you will get to realise which posters are worth taking note of. I would also advise going to www.financialsense.com and listen to some of their weekly big picture podcasts -they've been mostly right so far - although it is a bit US centric, but the general principles apply everywhere.
  23. Pretty much the same point I made on their consultation document. I urge ALL people sharing the same opinion please do the same : http://www.dft.gov.uk/consultations/open/h...n/responseform/ It probably wont make any difference, but you never know - if enough people make the same point maybe that and $120 oil may get someone to notice.
  24. My advice. Gold (physical) and oil stocks (such as Dana, Aminex, Tullow, Soco). If you are going to sell to rent then you may as well do it for a couple of years which is long enough that your shares should go up. If you are looking for a 20% fall in the £ over the next year then owning an international commodity stock should protect your money - and if they find a couple of flowing oil wells or get taken over then you are utterly quids in too.
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