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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by yogibear

  1. Only 15 minutes to go. But I must say the misuse of the term sold by EA's is one of my pet hates. They put up sold signs before exchange, before structural surveys, before valuations. It would be like Tesco including items people pick up and look at before returning to the shelf as turnover.
  2. The woman I share an office with has a meeting at 5pm. I'll give them a call at 5 and pose as a prospective buyer of a property with a budget of between 200 and 230k. Then I'll post what they say.
  3. Offers may well be put in before a mortgage has been agreed, but Dogbox talked about sales in some of his quotes eg. "we have sold 7..". To have a sale the buyer must either have cash or a mortgage (and a sale is a competed sale once legal ownership has been transferred not an accepted offer which is only a potential sale). You won't have an increase in sales until 2-3 months after the lending figures pick up.
  4. Dogbox why don't you let us have the names of the EA's you phoned and we can then ring them up and find out if your statement is true.
  5. Lack of forced sellers certainly propped up the Japanese market. I like it TTRTR you don't like the fact that Van listed lots of people who are forced sellers so you redefine the term. That's classic denial. Next I presume you'll get angry....
  6. Classic Laurejon. Have you ever considered that house prices are unaffordable for the majority of people in the UK and that this will lead to a fall in house prices? The point is if 10 EA's could operate successfully in an area last year/2 years ago and now they are all dead the market is going down the toilet. Perhaps it will take all the bullsh"t with it.
  7. So assuming none of the companies had exactly the same number of home reservation as last year 24% have seen an increase and 76% a decrease. Hope none of you guys work for the companies that form the 76%.
  8. The block is on Vine Street in Brighton. According to nethouseprices last two Sales October 2004/April 2004 were £208,000 for a semi and £185 for a terrace . 300k a little optimistic and symptomatic of the complete fantasy land house prices have been in recently.
  9. In Brighton where my girlfriend works as a solicitor doing mainly commercial and some residential property work I would say the market is tanking. Her main client who made and lost a fortune on property in the last cycle has been flogging his entire residential portfolio in the last year 18 months. He is now accepting offers 30% + below July valuations, and even then his last few properties are struggling to sell. He is buying nothing residential at all. Remember the hideous programme the Block - 1.5 bedroom flats in Bright for £300k? The client I refer to above apparently said that wa
  10. Remember the old saying about being careful what you wish for? The lending figures are frighteningly bad. Nasty credit crunch coming for the UK consumer. UK plc has been living on borrowed time for the last few years (apologies for the appalling pun) and it looks like its pay back time. Recession?
  11. The remortgaging to buy cars, holidays etc. is the really worrying thing about this bubble. The BOE say the link between house prices and consumption is weaker than previously believed, BUT there clearly is still a link. When the housing bubble bursts consumption is going to drop and that will push us into recession. The fact that most of the borrowing going on at the moment is unsecured indicates that people have got used to easy credit. The consequences will be painful.
  12. House prices in London fell by about 5% last year in real terms (nominal fall + rpi) not a crash but a good start. TTRTR the mortgage approval figures for December are even worse than the ones for November whiich were incredibly bad. No mortgages = no buyers = market falls. The Spring bounce will be more like a spring thud this year.
  13. Laurejon I live in London here house prices are now lower in nominal terms than at the start of 2004, and have fallen for 7 months in a row. If they continue to fall at the same rate, by June they will have fallen by £22,000 in 1 year. My guess is that the rate of falls will increase as people with annually reviewed mortgages have just had a bit of a kick in the teeth. This will cause more distressed sellers to appear. I think by June the average London house will have fallen by £30,000 from the peak. Personally I'd call that a crash. But no you might be right all those FTBs are jus
  14. Woody seasons in this country don't last 7 months. A fall from peak of £13,000 in 7 months = an annual fall of more than £22,000. I'd call that a rapid decline, and if it continues for another 7 months we are into crash territory
  15. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4209527.stm It appears US, and global interest rates are set to rise. Oh dear there goes the asset bubble..
  16. The key point is that you only sue for libel if you have a reputation to protect, and you're good name has been damaged - Phil and Kirsty don't have a reputation to protect and don't have a good name. The only people that listen to them can never have been to this site.
  17. To be libellous the statement would have to reduce the standing of Kirsty and Phil in the eyes of the public. The only public viewing this site are probably not going to have a very high opinion of either of them in the first place. If they sued this would lead to a fuller public examination of what they said and what there VI was. They certainly wouldn't want that as the ******** they spew forth would be exposed for what it is.
  18. Average age of Scottish FTB's 37. If someone had said 10 yrs ago that the average FTB age in Scotland would be 37 in 2004/2005 they'd have been laughed at/locked up. 25 YR MORTGAGE AT 37 YOU'LL BE 62 WHEN ITS PAID OFF, bye bye retirement. The market long ago went from being expensive to being in fantasy land. Some of the house price/income ratios in Scotland/Wales/Northern England are scarey. Not from the point of how far prices will fall, but how much bankruptcy and bad debt there will be in a couple of years. I suspect that's bad news for everyone.
  19. If the Landlord fails to make necessary repairs to the property you can lawfully withhold rent and get the repairs done with that money. A landlord cannot evict a tenant from a residential property without a court order. This can take 6 months to a year, or longer to obtain especially as Summary Judgement is not available. If a Landlord harrasses a tenant or attempts to use force to evict them he faces jail.
  20. But the point is FTB on a combined 60,000 will not be buying 1 bed flats in Highbury. BTL's can't make any money from it. So no one will. Well obviously a few people might but I think on balance enough people have realised that a one bed flat in Highbury really isn't worth 200k to lead to sales drying up. When sales fall, prices have always followed suit in the past. If you look at the fall in the number of approved mortgages (year on year down about 40%) I think that a signifiicant fall in prices is 80-90% likely. Just my opinion of course.
  21. Lets have a look at the maths of a 200k btl at 1,000 a month rent (assuming you could get it). Annual costs 170k @ 5.75% = 9725 pa interest You are also losing 30k @ 5% = 1500 in bank interest on your deposit. Insurance contents and building = 300 Maintenance/depreciation of fittings and fixtues = 1200 (based on the allowance you are entitled to from the IR) Total cost = 12,725 a year Maximum income assuming no voids, no estate agents feesetc. = 12000 You are losing money. Now I'm actually being very generous to you because the above shows no stamp duty, no legal fees, no mortgage a
  22. And identity cards will make it even easier for the debt collectors. Funny Charles Clarke hasn't mentioned that.
  23. "Similarly, even though landlords were forced to subsidise mortgage repayments on 17 per cent of all investment properties last year, some 61 per cent said capital growth was the most important aspect of their investment, according to broker Savills Private Finance." So 17% of BTL's are generating negative cash flow, and now many will be losing capital value (IMO). This is good news for people wanting a crash because a lot of the 17% will decide to cut their losses if they have any sense. Then again they wouldn't be in this position if they had any sense so maybe its just the ones who go ban
  24. Both major parties have suggested that the civil service can shed a small% of public workers without a drop in the front line services people use. You need police, you need doctors, you need nurses, you need traffic wardens (see what happened in St Albans without them!) you need people working at the Inland Revenue etc. The vast majority of these people do essential jobs and if you privatised the work that they did you end up with what we have in the rail industry a f"cking mess. The notion that hundreds of thousands of people who do essential work are a bunch of stupid slackers is simply w
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