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House Price Crash Forum


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About Afarmer

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  1. I hope we leave the EU, all the farm subsidy has ever done for me is to raise the land price so much that I couldn't buy a farm, whilst my landlord whom I rent the farm off put the rent up so much that he got the subsidy for himself. That many rules and regulations now on what you can and cant grow and in what proportions that its more bother than what its worth on a small scale.
  2. This is a good thing, it puts some value back into money. It seems to me that things that people generally buy using credit are rising, whilst everyday things usually bought with cash are coming down. It is at the point now where houses, land, cars, sofas etc. seem ridiculously high, and potatoes, eggs, milk, fruit etc. seem far too low. The government seems to want the everyday things to go up more, but the opposite seems to be happening. I think that once the credit dries up, the things bought with it will collapse in price to the same real world that everyday things are in. Bring it on.
  3. Agricultural land at about £10,000 per acre has been massively inflated because of the low interest rates, high cereal prices a few years ago and of course EU subsidy money. The realistic value now based on what it can produce is more like £3,000 acre. I wonder how long it will take to drop to that level, or if it ever will.
  4. I'm waiting to buy a house to retire into, currently renting. I'm a 50 year old cash buyer, it will need a lot more than 25% off to tempt me. I think the whole house price has been wrong for years, at least 20 or more. Would be possible for some areas to drop as much as 80% or more if the market was not supported. Needs more sellers than buyers to achieve this. Not there yet but see it coming this year.
  5. If you spend a few minutes looking how cheap house prices look in Southern Ireland compared to ours in the UK you realise what can , and probably will happen over here at some point soon.
  6. I see where youre coming from with your response, but you would be better off because you would stand more chance of retaining a job for the long term with a reduced wage. Also remember that the bennefit system could be halved too. Im in no doubt that if everybody that is fit and able did some form of work, however basic, the whole country would be better of as a result of it. With reduced wages important industries in our past could be re -born, as we have gradually lost most of our manafacturing to overseas countries over the years. I have come to the conclusion that the UK imports many of the essential things that it needs and produces most of the things that it doesnt need. If this balance is not changed soon, I rekon mass unemployment on a scale never seen before will result very quickley. Only my opinion though.
  7. I dont agree with this either. If , for example, all wages, minimum or otherwise were halved right across the board at the same time, the cost of living would be reduced by a similar proportion. It wouldnt happen instantly, but would evolve over a year or two. I could produce much cheaper food, the reatailers could sell it cheaper etc. etc.. Rents would drop to affordable levels as would house prices. Perhaps with labour at that price the coal industry could be revived and reduce our energy bills a bit. The wreckless money lending by the banks hasnt just inflated house prices out of all proportion, it has done the same with wages and almost everything you can think of. Now things are coming back into line, wages will have to do the same if the country is to get out of this mess.
  8. I rekon that you are completely wrong with that statement. I have a small farm on which I grow potatoes and a few vegetable crops. I dont supply supermarkets in any way, just the few remaining independant greengrocers shops still left. Im not into the expensive organic produce, the stuff I produce is sold at a price at which the shops can compete with the supermarkets. I used to employ 3 full time staff, but as wages increased it was impossible to employ people to hand harvest and trim leeks or spring onions etc as their wage often exceeded the value of the crop. Consequentley many of these crops once grown in this country are now grown abroad where labour is much cheaper and imported into the UK. If I could have labour available now at say £3 per hour, I could employ at least half a dozen people. This would decrease the need for imported food and take 6 people off the dole, which would be a good thing all round. It would also provide cheaper food for the public, as imported food is set to rocket in price as the exchange rate is changing so fast. We have had no workforce here for over 10 years now, my wife and I have mangaged the best we could. Perhaps if you had my job to do you wouldnt come out with such stupid statements.
  9. How very true your report is. The farm I rent now was first rented by my grandad in 1934. It had been derelict for a year or 2 and grandad got it rent free for a year to clean it up. Most of the farms in the area changed hands about that time. A lot of farmers made the mistake of thinking last years high cereal prices were here to stay, and have borrowed massive ammounts of money to buy over inflated land and machinery on the strength of it. These are the ones who will be the first to fall, as wheat has dropped back to about £80 per ton , leaving them well and truly shafted.
  10. With grain prices back in the low £80 s per ton, and fertilizer prices still very high, there is only one way farmland is going to go in price and thats down. This could happen quite quickly, as a lot of farmers are heavily borrowed.
  11. Winter wheat is been sown in my neighbours field as I type this. It can be sown from mid september onwards to christmas, but the later it is left, the greater the risk. The earlier sown crops tend to do better. As for an economical price in the UK, well it depends on your land type really. Good wheat growing land tends to be on the heavier side (more clay soil). Yields can be double that of sandy soil like the sort of stuff I farm. Therefore I would need a higher price to sustain than a farmer on good wheat land. With the sharp increases in fertilizer in the last 18 months, a farmer on good arable land would need £100 per ton to make a living. I would need about £160 per ton, which perhaps explains why I grow potatoes and vegetables instead. The price of wheat ex farm last week was in the low 90 s per ton by the way.
  12. Agricultural land has gone up very quickley in the last couple of years, from about 3 - £4,000 per acre to figures now of approaching double that. Apart from 1 season of high grain prices, (last years harvest) I can see no reason for land prices to have risen like this, other than banks been too free and easy with their money like they were with the housing market. This year, grain prices are back down again, and cost have risen on an unpresidented scale. This will surly lead to a collapse in land prices in the not too distant future. I personally rekon that growing potatoes will be a good paying job over the next few years, as it is still the cheapest food you can buy in this country, and I think demand will increase a lot as people look for cheap belly- fillers.
  13. At last , after reading many of the posts, somebody seems to have, in my opinion, got it right. The banks been too free and easy at lending money has done more than push up the cost of housing. Over the years, it has also over inflated peoples wages, from the very top to the very bottom. Now the housing market and economy in general are on the way down, wages will have to follow the same path weather we like it or not. On the basis of that perhaps we could finish up with a minimum wage of £2 per hour and perhaps a good wage could be double that. I think this would make a great difference when working out a house price basing it on 3x salary or similar.
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