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House Price Crash Forum

Now or never

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Posts posted by Now or never

  1. 1 hour ago, crumblingcon said:

    None of us really knows?

     

    Absolutely, but what I do know is that the 'market in my local search was going negative and the chronaviras has'nt brought any positives!

    I can't think of one thing that would create an increase in prices from this, anybody approaching a house purchase with the same mindset before the lockdown is highly likely to be the greatest fool.

  2. 8 hours ago, Martin_JD said:

     

    Unlikely I would say as with government and bank support against repossessions there will be very few forced sales coming onto the market which has been a key criteria in any other housing downturn.

    In any case with interest rates as they are people can always drop down to interest only mortgages only for a couple of years to get them through any difficult times, and that's after a 3 month payment holiday if needed.

    There are still plenty of people who have steady incomes even after this lockdown. Plenty of cash buyers too as usual. Sadly also plenty of inheritance payments that will no doubt need to be spent.  The only thing that would change anything is if interest rates rise significantly - then you may be right and values will head downwards, but until that happens I would not hold your breath.

     

    I too have always been of the opinion the government will support house prices at any cost but now we're on a different playing field; there's just too many wobbling plates.

    This lockdown has created the perfect storm in everything, incomes reduced, unemployment rocketing, banks reducing LTV, landlords/Air BnB selling up, GDP likely to reduce by at least 20%; none of which the effects are known or yet been felt.

    The MSM narrative has changed, sentiment is changing, lives and priorities are changing.

    We have a housing market that's been on hold for a whole month at least, all of which will hit at once. As we know, not all sales are financially forced, and there's not just the 3Ds. My 89 year old neighbour was diagnosed with a brain tumour last week, this week living in a care home, a four bed property about to hit the market once the doors open.

    My search area has not had a single property added to Rightmove since the 24th March, before that date it averaged 2-3 new properties a day.

    I'm not holding my breath for a fall in house prices, I'm holding my breath for a return to the norm.

  3. 1 minute ago, Martin_JD said:

    You realise i'm talking specifically about the local situation in Edinburgh right?   

    It is my belief demand will drop off a cliff regardless.

    We have not yet seen the effects of this lockdown, we have never experienced anything like it in our lifetime, we will not simply resume where we left off, people will not rejoin queues for property.

    Everything is pointing to a depression - have you seen the price of oil today?

     

     

  4. 3 hours ago, crumblingcon said:

     

    I just cannot stand the lie of the  wonderful world articles the BBC claim we are living in, how they claim the masses are lighting candles as they fight evil in the world as they hold hands with their Jewish, sikh , muslim or hindu brothers, all wonderful stuff maybe and where a tiny minority might be living like, where their Journalists...

    I prefer the term presstitutes.

    Stole that one from Gerald Celente. If you've never watched Trends Journal on you tube, I recommend.

  5. 8 hours ago, dirtysteve said:

    Asking is 1.5M so 50k not all that big a drop. My concern is the 10%+ fall not the 50k (3%) I could save at the moment. My jobs safe for the moment but like many jobs will not be if C19 is still having the same impact in 6 months. So yes, I guess I am convinced to hold off. A shame as it is our dream home.

    Understandable reactions to the circumstances you describe, and that was the point I was making.

    These are the reactions I'm expecting throughout the country, job security and general uncertainty removing commitment to purchase with price reductions adding more doubt.

    Nobody can predict or assure crash territory but there's no doubt the scales have tipped in favour, and I'm confident you will benefit in the long term.

     

     

  6. 34 minutes ago, dirtysteve said:

    Got to say I’ve been thinking the same (as a nearby West Londoner). I’m currently renting with deposit in the bank so a crash would be welcome but I’m not convinced it’s coming. We almost bought in January but was outbid. Was gutted afterwards as we loved the house. It’s now fell through and an offer of 90% asking would secure it and would save us £50k on our January offer but I’ve just not got the confidence (or job security ?) to do it. Time will tell I guess and for the time being at least no one else can view it. 

    So you're not convinced of a crash but acknowledge a 50K drop in 3 months and you no longer have confidence to pursue a purchase? Seems your reactions should be enough to convince you.

     

  7. 47 minutes ago, crumblingcon said:

     

    Just say you could buy a house tomorrow at whatever price, I would suggest that that price could be massively lower in a year or two's time, the difference between a good life and a hard one, my call is to most definitely to sit tight, if I do call this wrong and the market handles this  crisis then I will hold my hands up and admit I know nothing.

    Doesn't matter what we know, only what they do matters.

    We all know that, that's for sure.

  8. 1 hour ago, crumblingcon said:

    Rightly or wrongly, these articles are always taken more seriously when they are in the Daily Telegraph

    Can anybody recall these types of headlines when all indices were (supposedly) pointing upwards as they are currently?

    House prices rises can no longer be justifed to, nor understood by the man on the street There's an acceptance this covid crisis is changing everything, creating a sentiment change which will be the final straw for house prices.

  9. 16 minutes ago, Wayward said:

    This is what they have done for the last ten years and I am sure they would like to continue...but politically can they justify pumping billions into inflating the price of housing with all the other demands now on the public purse? Let's hope not...but I expect they will try.

     

    House prices had a link to the last financial crisis, associated with the cause so an indirect pump to the banks was deemed a necessary/acceptable ‘fix’ by the sheeple.

    This virus has been pinned as the cause, though we know the economy was never fixed, with no one/sector to blame, the everything bubble can now deflate and the reset can commence.

  10. 1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    Just look at the asking prices, look at your wages and decide if you think prices are low, in between, high, or crazy

     

    If low or in between then 

     

    There's no doubt prices are crazy and I have no inclination to buy right now. However, if I was forced to move from current rental, my personal circumstances make buying at a crazy price more favourable to me; when time is not on my side.

    Fortunately houses are being reduced regularly around my way and this is buying me the time for the further drops im expecting.

     

     

  11. I get twenty something, I'm of the same age, but don't have the pressure to buy right now. House prices round my way are falling more than my annual rent which is about 25% less than the market rate due to no rise in 10 years.

    Im now in a position to buy, and if I was forced to leave I'd buy for exactly the same reasons.

     

     

     

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