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Now or never

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Posts posted by Now or never

  1. Something that I've not seen mentioned on HPC since the CV impact is BOMAD. Many FTBs heavily depend on that injection of cash for their deposit, can't see the parents as willing to assist in these times, assuming they're still in a position to.

    Every HPI supporting factor is now either cut off or reduced. I can't actually think of a single HPI factor at this moment in time that wasnt already in place before CV. Of those that we're, the effects were diminishing and pretty much reduced to none.

  2. 1 hour ago, Dean said:


    We will be one of the first to reduce our price, as at a maximum LTV of 85 percent there is a new floor on prices and we actually shock, horror want to move. 



    This. The silent credit crunch.

    This will cause house prices to fall, fact. 

    LTV at 85% for 6 months will stop FTBs and kick start sentiment which will be associated with CV by the masses.

  3. 1 minute ago, Warlord said:

    The Telegraph is an allegedly conservative paper that supports the free market yet their journalists appear to think it's the government's duty to intervene in the property market in order to prop up home values through various schemes and deny a functional market.


    Can only be saved by propping up the banks, anything else is just pi55ing on a bush fire.

    If they don't get that LTV back to 95%, we have falls. 

    They need to act quick and prevent sentiment change as they've done with furloughing the economy, though that's to big to hold back for much longer.

  4. 33 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:


    This is the opportunity cash rich people are waiting for right now. A small(ish) 5-6% decline will be enough to plant it into the far right corner whilst everyone else has their eyes off the ball.

    You see a 5% reduction as an opportunity? Anybody stupid enough to make that assumption will not be cash rich!

    Banks have reduced LTV by 10% overnight, the market was flatlining at best before CV. If there's such a thing as an opportunity in all this, it doesn't kick in until 10% drops at the very least, at which point another 10% will not look out of the question.

    Sh1t hasn't even started yet.


  5. I too had given in to a manipulated housing market and excepted I've been well and truly shafted through no fault of my own. I'm still cautious and not wanting to get carried away, but I've never seen such pessimistic headlines so early on, and the figures are just dismal. I take a diffetent perspective and search for supports for prices to hold - so far I cant see a single one to cast doubt.

    This is the one scenario I believe it will be allowed to happen - it's blameless.

  6. Just been on Halifax mortgage calculator, looks like max LTV is 85%. That's a £37500 deposit for your average house, an increase of over £25000 when 95% before lockdown.

    If this is not a temporary arrangement, we have a 10% house price fall baked in this year.

    Majority of FTBs are now out of the game too, at a time where they have become the majority of players.

    This really is the perfect storm.


  7. On 08/04/2020 at 18:03, Now or never said:

    Chatting to a neighbour over the weekend, has used the covid crisis as a reason to return pcp'd car. Apparently he's been told that there is a waiting list currently running at 3 weeks minimum for collection.

    Will be a massive supply of second hand cars hitting the forecourt after the lift on restrictions.

    4 weeks on and car still sitting on the drive.

    Could be many reasons associated with resources during lockdown, though I got the impression it was the numbers causing the delay.

    Either way, whatever the cause, the delay is creating huge pent up supply for the second hand market.

    When lockdown is lifted and furlough payments cease, either car values or the market will be destroyed, highly likely both.

  8. 27 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

    there will be no jobs to go back to... zero demand, people saving whatever they have left 

    My thoughts too.

    Company I work for furloughed approx 80% of staff, talking 1000s of people. I'm currently working from home with skeleton team, still not busy; all having conversations about looking forward to getting back to the office - I'm having conversations about who wont. 

    People are not joining the dots and are not aware of how precarious the economy was before lockdown. We were on the edge....now we've been pushed over.

  9. 14 minutes ago, crumblingcon said:

    That I agree with, I could even join you in an argument where it could even be preferential to ownership, but we are way way way of that scenario

    I used to hate renting, not cost (though previously extortionate) but the sense of freedom lost from time to time when wanting to make changes beneficial to the family.

    Still renting now, but in a very fortunate renting position now, with a landlord that actually owns the house!

  10. Drip, drip......

    The losers, and a few winners, from a crash in house prices

    We are better placed to weather a property slump than after the credit crunch but it could still be dire

    Banks, regulators and home buyers and sellers are having to consider a torrid outlook for the housing market
    Banks, regulators and home buyers and sellers are having to consider a torrid outlook for the housing market
    Saturday May 02 2020, 12.00am, The Times

    Tucked away at the back of Lloyds Banking Group’s first-quarter results this week were some startling figures. If the economic crisis were to seriously worsen, it said, house prices could fall by 10 per cent this year, then by another 10.9 per cent in 2021, then by a further 12.9 per cent in 2022. Overall, property values could fall by 30.2 per cent over three years, which would be unprecedented in modern times. The peak-to-trough fall in house prices after the banking crisis in 2007-09 was 19.4 per cent, according to Nationwide.

  11. 25 minutes ago, ucnvpe0 said:

    Large falls must happen this time but the response since 2008 has made me cynical. 

    Been difficult to watch all the props put in place since then, more so under the guise of help for FTBs.

    There was no stopping TPTB preventing the fall of the housing market, I'm not convinced they have the ammunission or the time to do the same for the whole economy in the long term.

    But hold my breath I won't, once bitten and all that.



    Very likely wife will lose here job when furlough payments stop, furlough is currently deferring the inevitable for us.

    Wouldn't be surprised if this applies to tens of thousands yet to realise their situation, they're assuming all will just return to the norm. 

    Demand for everything in the main has fallen, the ripple effects not known for sure until lockdown lifted. Only then can resources be reviewed and adjusted to support the new norm, but the decisions are being made behind the scenes now and staff likely to be notified once they hit the payroll. Job losses are going to be huge. It's going to be a mess.

    If you need to think how bad things will be, just imagine what would have happened without furlough, the minute furlough stops that will be the new reality.

    Furlough has put a little bit of cash in people's pockets, it has not secured their employment and associated lifestyle for the long term.

  13. 4 hours ago, Habeas Domus said:

    If you dont believe the tabloid stories when they are ramping property, why would you believe anything they write thats bearish? - it's all the same, made up on the spot, clickbait nonesense.

    Dont need a newspaper to make me believe anything. The point is prices were going up during their ramping, now there's no ramping, maybe they are aligning to my beliefs.

  14. Taken from the Air BnB thread, thinking this may have a slight impact on the 'immune' Edinburgh market:

    'Investors in Edinburgh who have profited from short-term tenants through sites such as Airbnb are so pessimistic about the coming months that they have decided to leave the sector.

    About 100 properties in the capital have been listed for sale on the property site Rightmove since the lockdown started last month, despite surveyors being unable to complete home report valuations. More than half the listings are for one or two-bedroom flats with high rental yields and minimal furnishing, in the style of holiday lets.'


  15. 48 minutes ago, Martin_JD said:

    The thing is you can't extrapolate what's happening in your local search to the entire market - there are differences all over the place, i'm sure prices in some dead end Northern towns will fall, but expecting a uniform price drop across the board is wishful thinking imo.  

    Agreed, there are differences all over the place.

    Here in the south east prices have peaked, the negative factors have outweighed the positive resulting in reductions for the past year.

    There seems to have been many positives factors in your neck of the woods and you seem to be of the illusion they will remain when the play button is pressed. We are yet to realise the negatives however damaging, but rest assured there will be many and everybody will be affected one way or another.

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