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Everything posted by VedantaTrader

  1. The part about Glasgow made me laugh, wasnt sure if you were being ironic or not...just googled murders Glasgow on google news search Glasgow Lived in Glasgow, more oppresive than Belfast IMHO...and the muder capital of Europe....quite a few violent murders on this first page on googlenews. Many of my greatest friends are from Northern Ireland. I m from here. I dont really want to live here, but that goes for the UK. It is nothing personal against anyone. I just have much better fun in Asia, I have a for me what I feel is a really cool lifestyle there from my view. However, many people love the lifestyle here. My brother in law is English and has been living here over 1 year now, and he thinks it is a better place to bring up a child than England. He really loves it here. Yes, you are right, there are alot of prejudice that still exist here, but people are moving forward. In many ways, lots of people I know, but are not close friends, lets say acquaintances don't share similar thinking to me. Doesn't mean my view is any more valid or important. I do find however there are lots of people set in their ways, and I know there are the secular idiots who have never been outside the country who probably think that I only go to Thailand to r*de ladyboys and fiddle children. ( I do also go for the food and culture, sorry, thats a joke) A friend of mine from Newry when he returned home has had this thrown at him. For sure I have heard people say they hate foreigners and they should all be shipped home. The point is that these same attitudes are prevalent everywhere in certains pockets of society. I have certainly heard plenty of English people make racist comments, but again to say that all English people are racist is absurd...I m not partriotic, I get bored here, but I think the reason for that is that it is such a civil country now, and a safe place to be overall. Norwich Union did a survey a while back, and they found the least travel insurance claims come from people who come to Ireland on holiday. People are least likely to get something stole here than many other places, and I also heard a while back Belfast was a very popular place for weekend breaks, perhaps the most popular in Britain,,,I m sure I read that on an Easyjet flight mag. So I m young, I like going to places where there is plenty of action, as I have been known to be a bit of hedonist in the past. I have calmed down now...but still enjoy my blowouts.I just dont get on with the social welfare, high taxes, bureaucratic government, expensive cost of living, cold weather...but of course it ain't personal against the people. You don't have to associate with anyone you don't like or agree with. All I know is that I have made long term friendships with some of the greatest people and loyal friends I m ever likely to know, free thinking , peace loving individuals who you can have a great laugh with. And my family are from here, they are Northern Irish and decent people, as I m sure many of your familys are the same. So yeah, it isnt nice to tarnish everyone with the same brush... One thing i really dont enjoy about here, is that in the local town I can't go out and grab a coffee and sit in a coffee shop at night. Everywhere closes down, and only the bars are open. When I m in Asia, I can sit out and eat great street food at makeshift street stalls, and have a cold one, and play music and hang out with friends, and the atmosphere is great, I have seen it where we are on the streets sitting eating spicy noodles, or a fish curry pot and sitting out in the hot air. I enjoy being able to go out and sit in a coffee shop with the gf and read a book, I just can't do that type of thing here in the local town or village. Even Belfast city centre after 10pm is a ghost town as far as non-drinking dens. I just find my existence can be a little mondane at times...but thats more my problem that NI. The people overall are great and no better or worse than any where else in the road. I was born here, I m not Northern Irish, or British or from any nation just because I was born here...I m myself, and I ll go where I want and associate with who I want or dont want to. I dont care of your sexuality, colour, creed, nationality, muslim, taosist, Buddhist, Christian, alcoholic, stupid, disabled...as long as people are civil and make an effort then everyone should get a chance. Why create divisions by calling your a nationality. Just take every single person you meet on an individual basis...stereotyping closes so many opportunities to meet someone who might just become a best friend or a partner. I have went out with a jewish girl, a buddhist, a half muslim/half buddhist, a catholic, protestant, who cares about labels....most of these people didnt give a shit about their religion...they were no more than names. So having a predudice based on a label is mindless in my opinion. My single idea is to treat everyone on case by case basis, a friend until proven otherwise. I know I m rambling on here, and this probably is not making much sense as it is just a stream of my thoughts.,but anyway hopefully the spirit of what I m trying to say comes out. Peace My NI Comrades.
  2. Yeah,I ve lived on and off in bangkok for a few years. Love the place. Its a real experience. The Lumpini walk early evening is nice, before a motorbike taxi to Silom or Sukhumvit for a few cold ones...and some excellent street food for nothing...then off to meet a beautiful "teerak Thai uni student", and head to a bar/club around Ekkamai, Saxophone at Victory Monument or some other place further out, where only Thai people will frequent...top draw. And great choice pf apartments...I would get up around 6-7am, go for a sauna, a jacuzzi, a swim in one of the outdoor pools of the condo complex...a game of squash or tennis in the afternoon, then relax down a quiet soi(side street) at an Au bon pain, with a coffee and book or a bangkok post...before deciding what to do for the evening...or you can go to one of the many night markets and eat great food...come weekend, out of Bangkok,head off to an idyllic island to relax on a beach with a "friend"...it is tough old life in South east Asia, haha. I ll probably live their longterm...and it is good at any age, but I m still in my twenties, and discovered the place in my early twenties, so it really good at that age IMHO. The poster who you replied to, talking about the coup and the "big wave" probably has never left the UK, or possibly even his postcode. His closest experience to travel is watching National geographic or the Travel Channel on Sky. Thats the impression I get anyway.
  3. HI MD, thanks for the reply. It is good to see you are not 100% in agreement, as I m aware I could be wrong. However, the best way is to be nimble and hedged, with not too many correlated positions. The 400 USD was kind of tongue and cheek, as a way of saying, well if they turn around the housing bubble, oil will be at 400USD...which I think would be the case. I do think in the next 10 years oil will be at this price. I thought oil was a good short at 147 USD, however, I did think it would come back to 70-90 USD...so wrong there. However, I ll make estimates, but doesnt mean I would buy at that price. This is just a guide. Price will be the ultimate guide, and none of my indicators turned up at that point as it went through every level like a knife through butter...so didnt enter at that stage. However, good call by yourself. Again, China is always a longterm story. Any country that has progressed economically had terrible periods, which are in part necessary. My focus, lately has become a little more short term with regards market, very volatile. I love looking at the macro trends, and I think it is important that everyone develops a big picture view of how the world looks and willl develop. No one can expect to be right all the time, regards timing and direction. For me, as I say prices are up for commodities, and oil which is really going with the trend. However, many economist will say (this goes for any market), this market will correct, its over valued, undervalued etc etc, yet we see the market continue a relentless march in the same direction...so at times you find yourself ironically being a contrarian for following the trend. I think we actually agree on the commodity outlook. I think they will correct in the short term. Six months. Infact Wheat has already come off...might be leading indicator. The scenario I have not ruled out is a similar occurrence to the 1930's crash. The stock market could fall, 50-80% from these levels. It has happened before, it could happen again. I dont think it will, as they are pumping so much money into the economy, the money enters via the banking system, large banks, investment companys, hedge funds, amongst others are the first to come into contact with the new money, so I think they could nominally support price declines from around the levels and lows in March and November. I m going for either a retest of the lows, or a collapse below the lows. No one knows, but once price gets there, we can look at how it reacts around those levels...and get hopefully a better idea.
  4. Abharrisson, if you had been reading my posts,and these two posts, I did say 2012 will be a bottom in house prices, nominal bottom at least. Also, I have estimated that the falls will be over 50%, perhaps nearer to 60%. The charts are there to show a relative change in price... You thinking about gold or goal v house prices is quite muddy thinking in my opinion. So many other fundamental factors that you need to take into account. As for reliance on charts...for sure, someone who has never made money using charts will find no use for them. I have never made money on horses by my own accord, and some would say that it is a mugs game where the bookies only win. A relative truth. Yet I know a professional gambler who has consistently made money over many many years... Charts are only one tool in a toolbag. The charts posted are not my system. Instead, it is of more a fractal nature, with about 5 charts of the one security on 5 different timeframes, which can find low risk entry points on lower time frames according to what is happening on higher timeframes. I also incorporate 4-5 different non-correlated methods to make a decision, based on cycles within cycles within cycles, trend, volatility, patterns, risk management, and the constant intertwining of disequlibrium between buyers and sellers. When as many non-correlated methods are in agreement as possible then there is an opportunity. It suits me, as I feel comfortable with it, and it works. The method never lets me miss a meaningful move in any market, where it is applied.
  5. Ah cheers Doccyboy...yeah for sure you can put a link on the main board for sure...Thanks.
  6. SORRY, FORGOT TO INCLUDE THE PRICE SCALE IN THE CHARTS,HAHA. However, the percentage changes can been seen in the highlighted area. It was six months ago, I wrote the piece which is pinned at the top of this forum. It is never easy to predict the future, and with economics, it is even more uncertain that. However, the best we can do is try to look at the patterns and inter-market relationships that exist, and watch how they evolve in real time, with price being the superior guide in watching these relationships unfold into the future. The best we can do is to outline as many different possibilities as possible as to what might happen, and then assign a probability to each scenario to avoid making costly mistakes with regards risk…in this case, to buy or not to buy a property. I think now is as relevant a time as ever to come back and have a look at how events have unfolded in the last six months. What we see now is the “green shoots†of recovery being touted in the mainstream media…goodness we have even seen two months of house price rises in the last six months, which from my reading on sentiment on this board and in general seems to have brought into question some peoples sentiment. Some are getting cold feet regarding staying out of the property market, in the fear that prices could start to rise. The economic indicators in the economy although still anaemic do show signs of being “less bad†than before. Stocks are up, and the banking system seems to have stabilised. However, I don’t see any of these as real positives. I just see it as a natural occurrence of events. I m going to quote some relevant parts from that piece back in December, and look at what has actually happened in the last six months, and give my opinion on what I think will play out over the next 6-12 months. Quote . "Lowering the rate of interest artificially and price fixing the cost of money encourages speculation. Speculative money flows to where the fundamentals suggest there is an opportunity. The money never flows straight back into the bubble that has just burst, at least not for many years, usually a decade, but if the policy actions are bad enough, perhaps decades later if ever. It is my hunch that this new inflation of the money supply will lead to the assets where the supply and demand fundamentals and the opportunity is, that will be commodities and alternative energy, not stocks, bonds or real estate in the western world. Artificial stimulus in the end always leads to mal-investment in other parts of the economy," I stated before that re-inflation never flows back into the same bubble that has popped. I said the money will flow to where the opportunities are. So in the last 6 months house prices have risen twice, but overall have still fallen in this last 6 months. It shouldn’t really be a surprise that we have seen some rises. After all, we have had a 500 billion GBP taxpayer bailout of the banking system, a round of QE and interest rates cut to near zero, and the ramping up of gigantic fiscal deficits that will be there for our lifetime, and have also led to an increased chance of a UK debt default. That is quite some effort and outlay of capital to achieve two months of house price rises. A good attempt! I do think it is important to get this in some perspective which brings me back to this quote from six months ago. The money will not re-inflate the housing bubble. I have said over the last six months we will see single digit percentage falls over the coming years in nominal terms, in real terms possibly more. What is important is to look at what has happened in other markets other than the housing market. I had said six months ago, the inflation will come in the recovery and the money will flow to where the fundamentals suggest the opportunity is…that place is commodities. The recovery in my opinion is a very dangerous thing. And here is the reason why…the important theme to understand is that this has all happened in a very weak economy. Excuse all the charts, but they are necessary to make my point. And also, excuse the poor image resolution as I m just using print screen function other wise they will be too big to upload. Crude oil futures Cotton Futures Heating oil, and we are in summer. High Grade copper futures. Coffee Futures Corn Futures Wheat Futures. Sugar Futures Palladium Oats Futures Cocoa Futures Aluminium Futures. US Dollar Index. As can be seen the USD has weakened, which is what you would expect as USD liquidity returns. In an inflationary environment, you would expect the USD to weaken, and hence commodities are moving higher. However, I do think the USD will gain in strength over the coming months, as deleveraging continues, causing government bonds to move higher, stocks to correct, commodities to correct and house prices to fall. This tells a story. Mortgage rates are influenced by the long end of the yield curve. We can see that the T-bond has crashed in recent months, leading to a weaker USD. This concept is a a bit of a head fry. The price has moved down, which means the yield has moved up. When bond prices move up in price, the yield moves down. Hence thats why when the bond prices moved up at the height of the collapse we saw the yields move to historic lows. Now however, the interest yield is moving up as the price moves down. Also interest rates and bond prices move inversely. So when the FED, and other central banks cut interest rates, the prices went up. If in the future interest rates move up, then bond prices will fall as they have been and the yields will move higher...These are used to set mortgage rates, with mortgage rates set a few basis points higher than the government yield, potentially locking the mortgage financing and refinacing market...There isevidence of this already happening. mortgage rates I selected the 01/02/09 and 13/06/2009 to compare the spread on the long dated bond in the last 4 months. It is clearly moving higher, as can be seen. Lets not be naive and think that dollar liquidity will not cause a similar problem here. The other reason, why this is posing the greatest of migraines for Mr Bernanke is this chart... There is a st*tstorm of option arms and ALT-A mortgages which will recast and reset at in the next 2 years. One can see the subprime debacle is behind us, look 2007/2008...However, there are about 500 billion USD of these toxic mortgages which will need refinancing. This might explain why the FED have been buying bonds (by creating new money to buy them), to try and raise the prices and hence lower the yields, so that they will not reset at at a higher rate mortgage...which will only increase the defaults. Estimates put the default rate at 61% on these mortgages. The bank Wells Fargo , JP Morgan Chase and others have large exposure. So will we see TARP 2 needed... more problems ahead for the banking system. More money thrown at the problem? The FED and Bernanke in their genuis don't realise that their actions are counter productive, creating new money to buy bonds is what will increase yields...I guess we can't expect them to get anything right. So... As can be seen in a very weak economy commodities have performed very well indeed. Oil has doubled in 6 months, sugar has doubled, copper, corn, wheat, coffee all up 30-70%. So the money flow seems to be going to where the opportunity is. Now this is the point I want to make. I think we can all agree that house prices will only rise in a vibrant economy. It is my thought that a price recovery will be nominal and not in real terms. If house prices go up in anyway that resembles a recovery, then be afraid…as oil will be at 400 USD, commodities will rise a lot. This in my opinion will lead to an inflection point, in that with the CPI moving higher, the central banks will be forced to push up interest rates. However, I think it will be very difficult for the central banks to push rates up. Central planning never works. A central bank does not know what the right quantity of money in the economy should be. After the year 2000 they lowered interest rates to historic lows. This was the catalyst for all the cheap credit which entered the economy and led to the bubble. Of course the central bank raised rates in baby steps, much to slowly and late in the day, which popped the bubble. If we are going to have central banks setting interest rates, then there is a policy they need to enact, which I don’t think they will be able to do. Also for political reasons they have didn’t do it before. They really needed to raise rates to nominal GDP growth+CPI to curb the bubble before it got out of hand. I contend that they will not be able to do this easily. Lets say the economy recovers, and grows at 2.00% a year which is below what Darling is projecting in the next few years. In that scenario, lets say CPI is 4.5%. In order to reign in inflationary pressures, the central bank will need to raise rates above the sum of these two numbers, which would be circa 7.00%. With the increased debt load due to all the bailouts and fiscal deficits, will they really be able to do this? If they do, can anyone imagine the consequences? My take on it will be that it will be a “double dip†recession. Raising rates, will burst the bubble they are creating now, in government debt, and will make the next slump, deeper and more prolonged, with unemployment climbing higher. During the preceding bubble, they did raise rates, however, the never took rates above or even to the level of GDP+CPI. The point of raising rates is to slow down credit growth. However, when the BOE were raising rates, credit growth actually increased and did not decrease, which shows that interest rates were not sufficient and much too low for too long. This is the puzzle the central banks are faced with. And this is the corner the government actions have backed themselves in to. If they don’t raise rates, then the risk is that inflation and prices in all the places where people don’t want to see price rises will run out of control, ie the cost of living, heating oil, petrol, taxes, services, food costs, clothes etc etc. Already from the previous charts, commodities have went up a lot in a very weak economy. In a vibrant economy, where houses will recover it will not be a real recovery, and in that situation the cost of living will be uncomfortable, and in the end will lead to fuel protests, social unrest, an up spike in crime. It will not be a time for thinking about speculating or buying a house unless one can really afford it without a large mortgage. I don’t know if commodities have bottomed out, however, the start of the bull market began in 2000, they are now moving up from a higher base than then. I see inflation coming in the next 5- 10 years, who knows, maybe by 2010/11 it could be showing up. Infact, a little anecdotal, it seems alive and well today. I actually filled up the car the other day at a garage and the cost was now 109p, I bought the set of cut throat razors this morning, and they are now up by 50p, a 20% rise. Yesterday I read this… Already I am actually more concerned now than before. I would not consider buying a house for the next 5 years, unless it was bought with a very small mortgage, or outright. The reason, being for the reasons outlined above. I would not even feel comfortable with a 5 year fixed. After 5 years time, where could interest rates be? I would also stay away from a variable rate and interest only…Does anyone know what is the longest fixed rate mortgage available right now? Can you get a ten year fixed? However, I think rather than setting a date, it is better to play it by ear, and take a wait and see approach, as things can change quickly. Over the next 6-12 months…I said we could see a rally lasting six months. The FTSE has rallied. I actually think the market will fall again, an could make new lows, towards the end of the year, and commodities, including oil will could also test the previous lows, then I think it will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Any corrections in oil or other commodities provide a good chance to buy more. So to summarise. Between, 2003-2007, we saw stock markets rising, house prices rising, commodities rising from a base which made them the cheapest inflation adjusted for 200 years. The USD dollar weakened, the GBP moved higher. In this period no one really cared about the rising prices(until the 2007), as they indulged their minds in the illusory nature of the temporary wealth stored in bricks and mortar. In the last six months we have seen a mini pattern of that same occurrence between 2003-2007. The USD has weakened as can be seen in the USD index chart, the GBP has strengthened, and returned to the same pattern against the GBP/Yen. However, there is one difference this time. In this pattern house prices have fallen, unlike 2003-2007, when they were rising under similar inter-market relationships…which brings me to my point that they wil not be able re-inflate the bubble that has just burst. It has never been done in history. It takes a decade or longer for an asset class to come back into favour. And when it does come back into favour, the general public don’t participate anyway until the latter stages…It is only the smart money that participates in the beginning. The next 6-12 months… Stock market correction, possibly making new lows. Commodities will correct. Government bonds will increase in price as a flight to safety. The GBP/Yen will correct also, possibly making new lows. The USD will strengthen. House prices will fall. More money will printed and thrown at the problem. They will blow not succeed in kick starting the housing market in any meaningful way. They will succeed in blowing up an bigger government debt bubble. They will increase the chance that interest rates will have to increase a lot in the next 5-10 years, they will increase the chances that when this happens, bond prices will fall, and bond yields will rise, especially in the long bond…which is used to set mortgage prices, thus increasing the chances that any recovery in housing is not realistic. They will increase the chances if sowing the seeds for bad inflation. The events of the last 6 months, I would call a microcosm of what will happen in the coming decasde… Weakening USD, rising commodities, falling house prices in real terms, real interest rates and yields moving higher, higher taxes, stock market in a large range, but losing value in real terms with civil unrest and geopolitical problems emerging and becoming more acute in the coming years. I hope I have been able to articulate my point ok, as it is quite difficult to explain. Anyway, I could be wrong about the timing of these things happening...I think however, it is hard to argue with price and relationships in any market, and thus far this seems to be the way it is playing.
  7. Medical bills or not, thats still your own bed you made for yourself. You are totally responsible for yourself, and its probably the attitude of always blaming someone else for your own downfalls that is the very reason you havent got money to look after yourself. Dont wish your own self-inflicted, and bad luck on other people. You would be better of if you focused on looking after yourself.
  8. haha Damn you beat me to that joke..., Kauto Star, is a fantastic race horse, however, I prefer to look for value in most cases. Last year I did silk affair, go native, paddydeplasterer, all 14/1 winners, amongst quite a few others, which gave an excellent return, as most placed also. Sure you would never lay horses and favourites in these top class races, but they are good for backing value. The bookies don't get the odds right, or should I say the market. The horse doesnt know the odds is what I always say. Im not a gambler. I do bet quite alot, but, I ll spend 1-2 days research on one race with my mate, where we watch every last three races for every horse in that race, time the horses, look at weights and handicap them,the class of race the horse will be in, distance,jockey, equipment, course characteristics, jumping skill, trainer, pedigree, conditions, and other things also, and of course the point of watching the races is to see how the horse finishes, is he slowing, staying on, etc etc, average lengths behind the winner. It all goes into a spreadsheet, and assigned a number. I agree that your dutching idea is a good ploy. Did a tricast yesterday on the Derby and backed MAster of the Horse at 16/1 each way who placed. Did tricast for fame and glory, Master of the Horse and Amras,,,sea the stars of course was the only one who knocked us off, but was offset and made from Master of the Horse placing...The tricast would have been like winning a yankee, grrrr!!!
  9. I actually thought, that meant for Cheltenham Festival, well I would go for Notre Pere in the Gold Cup and Paddydeplasterer in the Champions chase hurdle antepost. Also I would like somewhere to stay when I go to Cheltenham...so if you move there, then you could put me up?
  10. This is this c*%k that 6 months ago or more on UTV said NI property prices had bottomed...I m bearly 100% sure it was him. This guy is potentially more dangerous than the BTel...
  11. I am and you also...buy put options on the NYMEX...no don't really, as I do think you will be wrong about the price of oil. The demand side of the equation even assuming that is correct, which I dont think it is, all you have to do is go to Asia to see this doesnt mean anything if daily supply is falling faster than demand. Commodities are more supply side orientated than other types of markets.
  12. Totally misguided argument, and you still have not provided me any data to counter production and supply problems. In the 1970's that was a political reason, now it is one of geology. Totally different circumstances, and not comparable.
  13. So show me the model you used to get the "exact" figures of 5-10 years? Or was it a baseless guess? Oil demand will not stay subdued for too long in my opinion, and even at that if longterm supply is falling faster than a temporary fall in demand it doesn't really matter what demand is if supply is going down quicker. It seems a pointless debate, as you have demonstrated that you dont know anything about the subject apart from reading one article from 3 years ago in the WSJ. I also am no expert, but I have read dozens of research papers on the subject from a wide range of sources. I feel I know enough about it to make investment decisions on the longterm price of oil.. The data is certainly there to support the peak oil theory reality. I have read information on both sides of this debate, and I am yet to find any work that can explain in technical and reasoned detail the ways to get around the problems faced by energy production. If you can provide some documents explaining how the costs to put down new infrastructure will be met...the code word is oil and rust...that would be a start. If you can provide some documents from geologists and engineers showing how they can increase oil flow rate in deep water wells, and how to prevent flow rates declining after 5 years also? If you can provide some information on the techniques used to economically produce oil from the tar sands and balkan rocks then i would be happy to read it. If you can provide any documents showing how oil production rates can be increased meaningfully to meet daily demand? can you show me the means that the industry has from exploration to discovert to refinery to consumer use how this can speedened up to come to full production that less than the 10-15 years it takes? How will all the infrastructure and exploration and new projects be financed with sub 100 USD oil? Show me the economics of it please? I need info from you on the finer details of oil production and costs so i can actually see where you are coming from. So far all I have seen is that world is not running out of oil...which I agree with. However so far all I have seen is one very questionable news paper article. Cheers.
  14. Canadian Association of petroleum producers From the CAPP. The pdf document at the top of the page. It also cost 20billion $ to increase to production by 100,000bpd. Yes and oil production has grown by 7.5 million bpd over the last 10 years, demand grew by 12.5million bpd in the same time. The slack was taken up by gas production, however gas supply will go down very quickly in the coming years. I suggest you read the pdf on this page oil and gas industry sick the doc on February 4 at the Colony Club pages 35 onwards regarding gas. A lot of technical detail regarding the industry and the costs associated. Infact any of the presentations on this page seem to be the most reliable data and info on oil and gas and energy there is, as they are sourced from a wide range of credible sources. Also check out Jeff Rubin at the Aspo conference...jeff rubin Robert Hirsch work is also of value. In the last few years spending on E+P has went from 100 billion USD to over 400 billion USD, with the result that production has stayed flat. If you read through these documents, and then you can provide a equally well reasoned and factual view based on data on why they are wrong then thats all well and good... There are so many facets to this debate,like production costs, rust, oil industry decline of skilled workers at all levels, new technologys will not be developed quick enough to meet the global demand for energy. I agree alternative energy like solar is going to grow, however, this does not solve the liquid problem. My main point is that oil will go above 300USD in the next 5-10 years.
  15. This is quite funny. I thought you were being facetious. Thirty seconds to discover that you don't actually know what peak oil is. Peak oil has nothing to do with the quantity of oil left. A peak oilist does not say we are going to run out of oil. The very fact that you put peak oil down to running out of oil shows that you don't understand the concept. Peak oil is when daily production cannot meet daily demand...and this is a geological problem, along with an economic problem. Yes there is lots of oil, however producing enough in one day is the real problem. The oil in the tar sands of Canada you mention will never solve the problem. Research has shown from credible resources that maximum oil production by 2020 in the tar sands will only reach 4mbd...which is not going to solve the problem. Most of the elephant fields are in deep decline. I suggest you read up or speak to some people in the industry who actually do have a much firmer grasp of the concept that 30 seconds of googling an article from the WSJ... Here is a good start...Oildrum production forecasts The most knowledgebale person I know is Matt Simmons... Twilight in the Dessert Very good research taken from technical papers from the Society of Petroleum Engineers I think you will find in the coming years that the problem is more acute that 30 seconds of googling. My suggestion to you is to sell short oil with your own money over the next 10 years. You seem so confident so put your money where your mouth is and make a fortune shorting oil.
  16. This is where the greatest confusion about gold occurs. In a deflationary environment, the value of money effectively increases in value, money gains purchasing power...quite the opposite from inflation where money declines in purchasing power. Gold is money, at least many people use it as money, it is perceived as money, as a medium of exchange...which is the basis of all money. So in a deflationary period, where money increases in its purchasing power, then if gold is money, its purchasing power should increase also, as its true role as money becomes clear...ie, that of sound money, in an inflationary environment (which is coming down the road) gold will act as sound money, it will retain its value and increase alot...and in a deflationary environment gold will retains its value and increase in value. So yes Uk house prices have even dropped in sterling terms, sterling has increased in value relative to houses, however gold has increased even more in value relative to houses than sterling. Infact gold has increased in value against everything, you can buy more stocks now, more real estate, more food, more raw materials, etc etc...So the debate about inflation and deflation was not always clear in its dynamics. Gold was and is a good hedge in both situations as it comes into its true role as a monetary unit. So yes, we now have deflation and most currencies have gained in value relative to assets for the time being, however they havent increased as much as gold, as it is still in relative less supply than fiat money. Gold can of course go down, but in this type of longterm cycle for a couple of decades, it is the right time to own gold. So thats why gold held its price in when the DOW and S+P tanked. Also, in an environment where the markets, DOW etc tank, then that is a time and a sign of deep financial and economic distress and gold is does well in times of economic chaos. People seek refuge in gold at times like this. Anyone who is a deflationist should have owned gold, and for inflation well, thats obvious.
  17. And there in is the key and the context how any rise should be viewed, or decline. I m sure if you put a 6 month moving average with a 12 month moving average, the trend will be quite clear. A little research shows this has been the case in any market for 100's of years that moves up or down. Lets take the FTSE 100 fall from its near peak in 2007 until the "bottom"(?) in November... 166 UP days with 185 DOWN days.... the result a 50% decline in those total days, even though the up days and down days were quite even. The up days came on low volume and were short maybe a result of short covering... When volume is low in any market, variance is much more likely. So the economics have not changed...I would take a rise in context. 166 185
  18. There are small forex accounts now, where you can buy very small lots of a currency, called microlots. For example a standard contract in foreign exchange lets say GBP/USD is the same as owning £100,000 of sterling...so today for example the range in the GBP/USD was very small, at least below current volatility, as mnay markets were closed...The range was, high:1.5939, low: 1.5834, about 105 points from top to bottom. So each point in a standard forex contract is worth £10. That means that if you bought GBP/USD at the low today of 1.5939, and it moved up to 1.5900, that is 61 points which is 61*10, =£610... the full range today was about £1500. So you can buy one of these standard contracts worth a 100,000 with about 1-2% margin, therefore about £1000...to own £100,000...however, that is high leverage, that means that with an account size of £1000 could be wiped out in a 2 hour morning session, or even minutes at times... However, you can buy smaller lots these days worth £10,000 and £1000, where the point movement is circa £1 and £0.10p respectively. These are for the retail trader. They are abit crude, with widening spreads, they are not a direct market access market, like trading forex on the Chicago mercantile exchange. However, you can learn how to trade and they play a big part in education. And to be fair some of them are not too bad. Alpari UK is FSA regulated for what thats worth, haha,and they have a segregated account for funds. So back to your question, can you double £500 in amonth. Well, as you can see leverage plays a big part. You could take a huge risk and double it in 15 minutes, but that would be stupid, or you can play conservative and trade using small lots with,using either a forex broker or spreadbetting company. I think you can safely own one to two thousand pounds of a currency with a £500 account. It depends on how tight your stoplosses are, how short term you are trading. If your stoplosses are small then of course you can risk more. For example, if you have £500, 2% is £10, so if you were daytrading, you could buy £1000 of a currency and £10.00 would be a stoploss of 100 points. If you had stoplosses of around 20 points, then with a £500 account and 2% risk per trade you would be able to buy circa £5000 of a currency, as 20 points would be about 50p per point, 20*0.50p=£10.00 This is just an example, I m not saying to day trade, and the figures are not exact. Just demonstrating the point that with leverage and high risk and luck you can double an account in a month, but only if you trade right, and make winning trades. To do it without using too much risk would be difficult in my opinion...The first aim would be to still have £500 at the end of the month...that would be a great achievement. However, with these small retail accounts, you can trade small with leverage and not too much risk, and teach yourself and test out your ideas.
  19. Hi Reraise, investment / trading appear in the beginning to be easy, but it is actually alot more difficult than most realise...Your relatives, work colleagues, friends etc will say it is like gambling, 90% lose money...I have heard that alot, but my reply was always so that leaves 10% who make money. The reason that it is difficult is that it is simple. And it is human nature to complicate things. The more complicated you make it, then the less stable any method will be, the more parameters you add, the less stability that system will have. The best methods and systems are simple, but in order to be able to use it psychologically, you have to understand the reasoning behind the simplicity which can be more complicated and takes conceptual understanding. For example, and this is real...I can give you in large writing, black letters the exact rules of a system that made about 200 million USD in the 1970's to 1980s...from 400 USD starting bank...You can have it for free, I got it for free, anyone can get it for free if they want. I can't use it. People will lose money using it, as the most difficult part is the mental side. can you with stand being 50% down on your bank, having to take losers, until you find that one trade that offsets the loses plus alot more. Anyway, my point is that you need to find a method that suits you, that fits with you. YOu need to decide if you are going to be a trader or an investor, what timeframe will you operate on? Short, medium, longterm. I know you mention longterm, but perhaps trading US stocks for 2 hours at night between 6-9pm would suit, you ll never know until youmtry throught trial and error. Its free to try with so many demos around these days. Personally, I like to look at longer term trends, find the intermediate term trend with the larger trend, and then zoom into a smaller timeframe and find an optimal entry into a market at a level which is conducive with the trend on the longer time frame, medium and then with the shorter. So if you want to trade longterm, I would look at perhaps monthly, weekly and daily timeframes, or perhaps just weekly and daily. I would observe the trends, ways to detect the trends...For this type opf trading a grasp of the fundamental economic conditions of the market is most useful, and then use trend indicator to time the direction that your fundamental analysis takes. Finally, these are the most important things you will need to answer if you want to make money... 1. What markets will I trade and why? 2. What timeframe will I trade in and why? 3. How correlated are the markets I trade and why? For example, people talk of diversity...well, by buying a basket of stocks in a bear market, that can be taken as diversity. Well, its not. I think this is risky. As 90% of stocks fall in a bear market. For me , going long a few stocks and short the index is diversity, a hedge...so find markets that are loosely correlated. 4. What tools will I use to decide an exact entry point ot buy any market, and what is the reasoning behind it? 5. Even more important than when to buy is when to sell. It is harder to sell. The point at which you sell, determines your profit, so what method, tools will you use to tell when it is time to sell, what is the reasoning behind this. 6. How much of any market will you buy? Money management and risk control are the two most important elements. It is these two factors that will tell you how much of your total bank will you risk in anyone trade/stock/investment...2% of your bank is sufficient per market, per trade. This will then tell you many stocks/ contracts to buy of any security/investment. I would not risk anymore than 20% of your capital at any one time,ie, total portfolio heat. So that could be ten markets with 2% risk in each market, all loosely correlated. 7. Will you use leverage or not. Ask yourself about the pros and cons of leverage. Personally, I believe if you want to make sufficient amounts of money leverage is necessary...however, you really need very good risk control and rules to use leverage...it is a double edged sword. For smaller capital banks, using leverage for short term trades needs less money that using leverage over longer term trades. It all depends how much you want to get into it. Take it seriously as there really is no point doing it half a*sed thinking you will make money consistently. I can easily spend 16 hours at my computer, looking at ideas, testing ideas out etc etc. but I love it and enjoy it, so the time is non-existent. If you like chess or strategy games, then it is great fun, something that you can get totally engrossed in, sub-merged in. Concentrate firstly in making good decisions, then money is a by product of that. Dont even think about money. Just think of it like a computer game and you are making points, not money. Btw, Gambling is taking risks when the odds are against you, and speculating is taking a risk when the odds are in your favour, which you have to test and back test over a period of time following rules that you develop yourself. If you have an edge then it is not gambling.
  20. I would probably take out the money, and donate it to some charity's (circa 1 million each), orphaned children living with HIV in the world, some to disease research, cancer, and various others, education for children in third world countries, you get the picture. I would inform the bank the bank once I had done it, and say I m going to the papers to tell them about this and this will help out alot of people, and you Westpac will get great publicity world wide for this, and people will have a softer side for westpac bank....HOWEVER, if you go the opposite way, and try and take the money back, I will start a campaign to make sure you get the worst publicity in the world. I can see the headlines now..."The Bank that Let Starving Children Starve"...and then I would urge everyone to withdraw their money if they took any further action... I dont know if I m serious or not,haha...but I think it would be a good compromise and a good one to try...This sum of money is nothing in the banking world when we hear the numbers flying around. I think it would be a good compromise...as everyone gains something.... (1) Me, face in paper, single mums stopping you in the supermarket and in bars, good alround karma (2) Charity's benefit from money to help people in need. (3) Great publicity for the bank in a positive way. In all honesty I wouldnt take the money. These things come back around, and there is no satisfaction in getting money like this. A bit like winning the lottery. I d hate to win the lottery. Good luck to the couple though, everyone makes their own choices and fair play.
  21. Yeah but you have to remember that these are the rating agency's who stuck AA grades on mortgage backed securities and made the assumption that they were low risk investments of high quality. Does anyone really care what the rating agencys say? Apart from the effect on peoples perception of the UK...It does not take a genuis to work out that the Uk credit rating is going to get worse and worse over the next number of years. Lets you have a job that pays £20,000 a year. In year one you run £5000 on a credit card, no problem there. Now lets say you have a mortgage to pay of £500 a month. Move on to three years later you have run up credit card debt (fiscal deficits) of £40,000 but you are still earning £20,000, you have 2 kids now...more liabilities(bank bailouts, pensions, health care)...but your wife has now lost her job( unemployment, reduced taxation income)...would it take a rating agency like S+P or a genuius to work out you now may not be as credit worthy as you were three years ago...Lets not forget the income due to declining north sea oil, and the hole left by the financial sector in London.
  22. UK Credit Rating Outlook under Scrutiny No surprise on here I m sure. The 5+ years will be pretty horrific in my opinion, with quite a few nasty surprises to come to those who are pricing in a recovery (about 90% of people) in the next 6 months, and back to growth there after...There may be a slight recovery, but the cracks are still there. There will not be any suprises on here I would imagine.
  23. Not really media related this, but while it is in my head. I was speaking to a relative lastnight who works to [removed for privacy]. He has worked there for years. He works in the supply side, purchasing of materials, ie, he orders materials for the construction side of the business. He said that the after August their order book is empty and into next year. They are doing two schools at the moment, which are public money not private money. Those will be finished in August, after that he said there is going to be a massive dip in activity...and that as now there is one person spare for every person that is needed to do the work. But in the second hlaf of the year he noted that there would be 3 people doing the workload of one at current staffing levels...So will this mean more redundancy's? I think this is a very good anecdote from the ground. Does this pour water in the green shoots theory. This fits with my thinking, that the deleveraging will take hold again in the second part of the year, as i beleive the stock market rally will begin to wither in the next few months. Unemployment will not stabilise, and prices will continue to fall. Also contrarian indicator number two. Had a stockbroker on the phone, who just said the markets are up surging in a major way at the moment and they had some good stocks...I said, really, I m actually planning to short the FTSE index the second half...disbelief. Remember the public and consensus is nearly always wrong, and for me these are two signs to stay out or get the hell out. Moderator: Edited.
  24. haha, yeah, and no sh*gg*ing on the beach also. I take it is pleasure related? It will interesting to see how the property bubble has burst there also. Alot of money around Dubai, aston martins and the like sitting in the airport on display, just in case any rich Arabs jump off the plane and decide to buy an aston martin. I thought I would be pushing the boat out if I bought an ipod and a bose speaker system in the Dixons at Heathrow while waiting for my flight. Have a good time!!!!
  25. Haha, well I hope you are not going to Dubai, or those regions. That guy got jailed for a little bit of hash they found stuck in the tread on the bottom of his shoe. Scary stuff. I forgot also once to remove a razor, like a cut throat from my hand luggage, it was in a side pocket, and they saw it on the x-ray when going through Abu Dhabi, the security guy got really agressive, grabbing me, and talking loudly into my face. Sounds like you have been in the wars...Get well soon, and hopefully your holiday won't be dampened by the pain. Sounds painful.
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