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VedantaTrader

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  1. I agree with this point that it is the judge who is deciding the nature of the contract, just because the price went down, doesnt really change the nature of the contract which anyone signed.Too many want capitalism with the upsides and no downsides. If someone agrees at that price then that is the value at that time that their own research or lack of it concluded. The reverse of this situation would be if you bought an apartment from a developer, put the deposit down, and within a year the price had went up by 20%, then the developer comes to you and asks you to now pay the extra 20%...I dont think many people would do it...Thats life in my opinion, it would be an easy life if we could have under writers for every time we decided to buy something... It brings me back to a point that people will invest life savings, buy £300,00 apartments, buy stocks with less thought and research than they would buying a second hand car at £3000...sad but true.
  2. If you try to take money out of the hole in the wall when near your limit it will be declined. Using the debit card for instance in Tescos, or many shops have a floor limit. This is outside the banks control. IN Tesco it is over £50, I think. They will process groups of transactions rather than one individually. If you make a purchase of £200 it will be delined if you are at your limit if it is within the floor limit then it will go through... When I was 18 and at uni, I went over my overdraft by quite a bit. I had learnt a way from some other canny students. I wa skint come end of the year, I was always able to get £40-50 cashback...but at the ATM it said no. In reality you could go in and say buy twenty cigs, and get £40 cashback, and then do that again at later and again...then you could get out £150 in one day if you wished. It is a mugs game doing this, but this why you can gon over your limit.
  3. This the point I disagree with. If someone stops paying the credit card or is spending willy nilly and then gets a 50 pence charge for a late fee, then this will not enforce any discipline when borrowing money. If the charge is sufficient to cause some "pain" then this will perhaps enforce some discipline...a few pence will not. I have had charges, but I always had the money to pay. I was either on holiday or forgot or just was not organised enough. This is my fault. Now days it is different, as one day I said enough is enough. I m not going to get charged again. So now I make my payments if I have any to make on time...it was the pain of the charge that caused me to discipline myself. The result of this is quality credit file which the banks love, credit files have nothing to do with how much money you make, they show you can manage the money which is allocated to you. I don't really use my credit cards anymore unless for practical use, and I m dont need need my over draft facility. However, the cards I do have at anytime offer me constant promotions, and offers of new cards from whether it is Barclays, LLoyds, an airline card, BMI, Flybe,a football club card, guaranteed loan offers are there. The point I am making is that your own management of your own money will entitle you to an abundance of credit if you need it...It was charges for me that helped me to manage my money better. Also, banks offer so many ways to make a payment that there should be no excuse for late payments... Cheque Standing orders Direct Debits Telephone Banking Internet Banking Cash in bank
  4. I agree, and I wasnt saying that the charges were your own fault, at least not all of them. When it is a banking error or outside your control, employer etc then for of course this is unfair. I disagree also with building charges on top of charges the cascading effect. I think there needs to be some fair ground in between, rather than an automated system that applys a charge and automates a letter sent out, I think charges should be looked at in some kind of arbitration setting to figure out exactly why the charge occurred. In your case the failed payment on direct debits is of course not fair. I dont agree with you being charged for sure, and I m glad you were successful in getting your money back. My view is that there will be the people who also take the piss. If it can be concluded that it was not a bank error, then the charge should be applied...I have been charged before and I think some were my fault and some were not...so I would be happy to claim the ones that were not my error. It is the serial late payers who have the money in their account on the due date, or who spend on their card knowing they will not have the money in their account who should be charged. I think we need to meet half way in some kind of arbitration grounds where charges are legal or not based on the particular circumstances surrounding that particular charge. But well done in getting them back. Banks will freeze interest and charges if someone does go to a debt management company and they send in a financial review of their in goings and outgoings each month, then an offer is made to pay back £2, £5, £100 a month as an example. A bank will not accept it when someone calls to say I cannot pay without a financial reviews as unfortunately there are people out there who will say they cannot pay even when they can. However, banks will continue to lump on charges until an official review is sent in of your financial out goings and income and expenditure. Banks will advise this is the action an individual needs to take in order to stop interest and charges. If the individual does not take these actions and advice then they will not have interest or charges frozen.
  5. So were all the missed payments(£2000) down to financial hardship or your own lack of organisation? My view on charges has changed somewhat. I did think they were unfair before. I think maybe the £35 bank charge is unfair as in too high. I don't think charges are unfair. Can anyone imagine if your credit card company said pay it back when you want and pay back whenever you want. Interest rates would be above 40% on a credit card as the risk to lend would be too high. The charge is there to enforce some discipline on the borrower. If the fee is not high enough to cause some pain, then the discipline will not be enforced, and defaults will become higher causing credit to become more expensive for those who have not been too lazy to make a payment before the due date... If you borrowed money, and you had the money in your account at the time of the charge to pay it, and you didnt due to your own disorganisation then why sign any contract with a bank? Why spend the money? I think alot of the people who get hurt most by charges are the ones who go on a consumer binge on the credit card, get their retail fix on the high street then can't be arsed keeping upto date with their payments. What about the old lady or pensioner who rushes down to the branch on the due date to make the payment to avoid being late and has never missed one payment in 10 years? Is it really fair to punish the prudent who pay back what they borrow faithfully each month? The money you borrow from a bank is the banks money remember, it is their credit card in your hand, not your money, so buying stuff with this and not paying it back is theft in some ways. It is this welfair state attitude that someone else should pay for me, someone else should take the risk...No one seems to take any responsibility for their own actions... So what I would say is, anyone has a right to make a case that some charges are unfair in certain circumstances...but the people who generally rack up £2000 of charges should never have a credit card or overdraft limit in the first place.
  6. Couldnt' agree more. I know this might be a touchy subject ,emotionally laden...Why should taxpayers money be used for social housing? Why should the productive pay for the un productive? I know someone, friend of the family who works to the HOuse executive and he said fraud is rife through the system. If an 18 year old gets pregnant then no benefits should be given. The family should be left to look after or the father. It is cruel to be kind, but if these types of policy were implemented I think overtime there would ve a reduction in young pregnancys. I m certainly not going to work hard to pay for some little scum bags to fraud the system at the benefit of people who work hard.
  7. Quite right, I don't pay a pension, but checked this with my father, I have taken him up wrong. Caveat Number 1..don't take your pension advice from me
  8. What a fantastic set of pictures, Cheers, yep, certainly wetting the appetite.
  9. Well done thus far, so how have you found Hargreaves Lansdowne? They seem to be a good bunch.
  10. Hi Spring, No easy to answers to this. Firstly I wouldn't panic just yet. You are only 30 which is still pretty young. I m a couple of years away from 30, and I wouldn't like to think that I ll be worried about my pension in two years. I don't have any company pension plans with any company so maybe I should be panicking, but not really as I why worry that far ahead when all you have is today. Anyway, making a plan for 30 years, a static plan doesnt make sense in a world which is in constant flux. You need to adapt to changing conditions in all aspects of life and pensions are no different. It is perhaps worth diversifying, and when I say that I mean check out some other pension schemes. My father for instance has 3 different pensions for when he retires, along with some stocks, some property outside the UK and in the UK, which is owned outright. One of his pensions is doing very well, and one is doing ok, and I m not sure about the other. I guess he is coming up on sixty, and started his pension man years ago when conditions were more favourable...so perhaps it is not as easy now to achieve what our mothers and fathers had with their pensions. For me, I ll be my own pension plan as I don't trust a company to run one for me. However, this not for everyone. Have you considered a SIPP as diversity? I like Hargreaves Lansdowne, although I have some interests with them, I dont have a SIPP... SIPP Hargreaves and Lansdowne They are a good company, and are one of the companies that have benefitted from the crisis in the banking sector, as they were sensible and took a down to earth approach. They are very approachable. The biggest gripe I m sure most people have with a pension, and my father has is this...You get taxed on your salary that goes into the pension, and then the pension my father has taken early gets taxed each month. So Labour tax you twice on the money you earned. Anyway, good luck...No one will really have any answers as it is very subjective, only suggestions. Everyone will have different aspirations and circumstances. I m not going to tell you what to put pension money in, as I could be completely wrong, but keep your eyes open for opportunities, perhaps in a few years the dividend yields on stocks in the US and UK could be up around 6-10% which going back to 1870 has always marked the bottom in stocks. If you are young and 30, you can afford to be alittle more aggressive in your allocation...As an example, buying stocks in 1921, 1932, 1949 or 1982 were fantastic opportunities. That chance will be there in a few years again. As a young person, I think it is ok to put some of your eggs in this basket. When stocks bottom out, you can get a very dividend income, as the stock prices are so low. Right now today, Lufthansa 7.83% I m not recommeding to buy this stock, just pointing out that in afew years when the real bottom comes in for stocks, there will be high dividends on lots of stocks with the added bonus that the stock should appreciate in capital value. Then again, it is better to wait and see, who knows where government actions are leading us. Also in Asia today there many stocks paying north of 10%. Just something worth considering as you are young and have time, and can be more aggressive with some of your money.
  11. Thats is classic. I think the last line in this article...""I'd rather be us buying, than be a home-owner who is selling." ...must go down as one of the worse pieces of financial advice in history. I wonder if they followed through.
  12. Sorry for laughing at your expense Sophia, but that is classic. It is funny, I actually remember that rumour going around about the dance tent and the guy pressing "blow" rather than "suck"...so it was true then...The following two years I was it, the weather was glorious, and I tell you, it makes an absolute world of difference when you can lay on the grass and "chill out"...The first year was a real testing one (1998), the mud made it miserable, and by the Sunday night the mud was so bad that the suction in the mud caused me to walk out of my shoes on the long trek back to the green fields from Bob Dylan at the mainstage. I was too drunk to notice or care,haha, We had to drink alot to get through that...The music was good though each year...I think the only thing I ate was those packs of sugary donuts and maybe one burger a day at breakfast time. Dont think I could do it now, I was only coming 18 in my first one and that age I think "Fools run in where Angels Fear to Tread" haha...Thanks for the story, it evoked some memories.
  13. Sounds great, I ll have to get back to it. I went three years ina row, back 1998,1999,2000, when it was "free" so to speak, from the people I have spoke to it still seems to be the best by far... The false endings in Rocking in the Free World were classic. I m going to have to go and see Neil Young again. I think in an indoor gig the sound must be incredible. Hey Hey My MY Cortez the Killer
  14. When is it? And if you have been was it good? I m sure it would be great. Never really got into them, as I probably never gave them a chance, but know they are a great band. Ironically, watched a video of them playing Rosalie by Thin Lizzy last night. They rock!!!! I watched Neil Young play Glastonbury on Friday night on TV...Love the man, saw him this time last year down in Dublin, unbeleivably good, would travel the globe to see him.
  15. From a personal point of view, I just cannot see how anyone can see this as a good buy. It is such a rip off, it does not offer you value for money. Can anyone imagine what you could self build in the country with £700,000? Also, I went to the show room of this place linked below. Now I hear the asking prices are down some what and this type of place can be for over £500,000 now...but look at the 50 pics or that...it is some apartment. I went to the showroom for this place, and when I was there I stayed in a hotel opposite near as it was just finished it is mightly impressive... Sizes range between 3000-5500 square feet. Own private swimming pool on balcony for every apartment,two floors, master bedroom with lovely jacuzzi, top class finish throughout with top materials, bedrooms ensuite, amazing gym and large pool on 6th floor. Even in the US now, you could have an amazing place for this money, I mean true luxury, same in Oz, New Zealand...for me it is not only the cost which shows how our property is over priced, but the what you actually get for your money when you compare it around the world with similar high end places. Leraffine
  16. Ultimately price action is the real guide to where prices are headed, and if this fits in with the fundamentals then I m happy enough to go with it. However, with high volatility it is best to be nimble, to trade in and out, and ask the questions do the fundamentals lead the price or does the price lead the fundamentals. Again, of course any market is influenced by speculative flows, speculators are one of the most important parts of any market. How else can price discovery be "discovered"? Speculators are the what engine oil is too a the performance of an engine. It would cease without it. And markets and price would become more volatile without speculators, supply problems and price spikes would be more pronounced. For example if the commercial participants who take physical delivery of oil want to hedge costs, which in turn keeps prices down and being passed onto the consumer, then another counterparty is needed to take the other side of this trade. That group is usually a group called large traders or speculators. Again, one must ask, why is speculative money flowing towards oil now? As noted already money will flow where the fundamentals are favourable, and that would be oil and commodities in general. Why is speculative money not now going into real estate? Every imbalance in commodities or an market is corrected by higher prices, as producers can then increase production with increased profits to bring more supply onto the market. Low prices and no money flowing into this area will only lead to more supply problems and larger price spikes down the road. There are many cases of this in history where speculation was banned and prices actually increased and volatility became higher after the ban. After the short selling ban on banks last September, bank shares actaully collasped at a faster pace than before. I prefer to look at the average price or a quarterly average of the price over a number of years. Take a look at this chart... A longterm chart of oil shows the average line drawn in to roughly track the average quarterly price. The average price has been going up. As can be seen the price moved above and below the average, but in the end the average price moved up over a number of years. Oil was only at 147.55 USD for perhaps one tick, or one second. It was at 147 USD for only one day. It was not fixed at these prices. So looking at the standard deviation above and below the line will show lots of different prices, smoothed by the average. The average only briefly go up to 130 USD. Perhaps we can then take an average of the average for extra smoothing to give us a better idea of true longterm supply/demand fundamentals. It is like wheat briefly went up to over 1200. However, the price was very volatile over a four year period. Yet bread did not go up to £4 one day and then back down to £1 three weeks later, before moving up to £1.50 after that. In would say it is important to look at the average price these were produced at. And if a company like Kellogs want to hedge these costs in the futures market so as to keep prices down on the supermarket shelves then speculators will take the other side if this hedge, the under writer if you like. So to blame speculators as it popular in the MSM is mis-guided, and politically expedient for the politicians to use as a scapegoat. The commit of traders report according to my reading of it, and the run up in 2008 into the summer to 147 USD actually showed the speculators were net short from around 100USD...it was the commercials who were net long, such as, Hedge long More...hedging planned and in progress Virgin Hedge over One Billion Pounds in run up to 147 USD Oil. In the end, I think we need to be careful, sometimes it is better the devil you know, as other unsuccessful attempts going back to the 1860's in Germany to ban speculating in Onion Futures caused higher prices. All, I know is that the demand increased for oil in the last 10 years, and supply flattened out, as the supply and demand lines met and became closer and crossed back and forward, prices became more volatile, which is what one would expect to happen when supply and demand lines become tight. In a leveraged market for sure there will be spikes up and down, but as noted the averages are moving up slowly overtime which would be conducive to the fundamentals also. If speculators are to blame for high prices, then we must also blame them for falling prices( and disinflation in commodities) between the period 1982 to 2000.
  17. It looks like an ascending wedge, as there 2 price touches on each line. This is bullish, and one of the more reliable chart patterns. Should be fine to keeo this thread ongoing for this type of thing, as in the end charts of things like the USD Index indirectly influence what will happen here in the future, regarding house prices. It is off topic in someways, but related. Also if people are renting and are saving money until they can buy a house, then perhaps it will be of interest.
  18. P.P, it is always a good idea to have a "barometer", you are using palladium for this if I understand you right? Any particular reason for this? Seems like a good idea. I happen to be using the GBP/JPY...and have taken a short bet on it in the last week. If it comes off, it will return about 1200% between now and December, it is highly speculative, but I am considering hedging the cost of the transaction by going short the USD even though I think the USD will go up...however this is basically just to end up breakeven if I am wrong on the GBP/JPY which is the primary trade. It is highly speculative, but the risk/reward in my view is too good, so it is worth a go IMHO... Also picked out Wells Fargo as a short a couple of weeks ago...as a leading indicator to lead bank stocks down. The RSI can be used in a number of ways. Some use it as a momentum indicator, a trend indicator, trend strength as you point out. It is trend overbought/oversold temporarily or a turning point(perhaps) in an up or down market. Below 30 is adefault for oversold, and above 70 is overbought in an uptrend...but as for the reasons mentioned in prev post I dont like it with these settings. I like to use as many non-correlated methods as possible...The RSI for me falls into market breadth indicator, or overbought/oversold levels...Some will use stochastics, MACD, CCI etc and countless others. I think you only need one of these types of indicators, as having an RSI and a stochastics and MACD on a chart all tell me the same thing. They dont add anything new apart from looking complicated and making the chart clustered... This is what I mean by non-correlated. A list of non-correlated methods I like to consider: Market Breadth Fundamentals Trend definition Intermarket relationships Chart Patterns Volatility/expansion/contraction Sentiment. Price action using candles and volume Support and Resistance LOng term patterns using very longterm charts from the last century and super cycles Economic Indicators such as unemployment, production, current account deficits, interest rates etc etc Trend cycles using multiple timeframes in a ratio of roughly 1:4, for example a weekly chart, a daily chart and a 4 hour chart and a hourly chart I use not set in stone bt generally daily chart,a 4 hour chart, an hourly chart, a 15 minute chart and sometimes take entry on a 5 minute chart. The daily one is main trend, 4 hour chart has to be in the same trend as the daily, the hourly has to be in an uptrend also, and then I wait for a down trend on a 15 minute chart...and then trade any uptrends on the 5 minute charts, when the 15 minute trend is down, but the hourly, 4 hourly and daily is in an uptrend. These are for short term trades lasting anything from one day to 2 weeks. But I m like yourself, I like to try to find bottoms/tops although in the past I have lost money doing it...but I think I have got a little wiser to it now, hopefully,haha. Any ideas how you go about doing this or any indicators you like to use or are curious about? I d be interested to hear as it is other people can bring fresh ideas to this, as here must be a thousand ways to do it.
  19. Interesting from Robert Prechter... FTSE/Housing Bubble Correlation This fits in with my thinking over the next 6months. I confident that the FTSE is looking shaky since about 3 weeks ago, and should fall anytime between now and the end of the year, which does not bode well for house prices.
  20. Not to mention that in 1990, it was a housing bubble. The difference this time is that, the housing bubble is a symptom of a huge credit bubble, and is not localised to housing, but stocks, consumer credit, corporate credit manifesting itself initially in a systematic banking crisis. Over the last 30-40 years the number of systemic banking crisis in different regions has increased exponentially...since the central banks and governments always try to inflate and resist recessions. Also, the central bankers and governments seem to follow debunk economic theory in tackling the problem, aka the keynesian Economic Theory, where governments step in to try and fill the "output gap" in the private sector, as it cuts back, the government try to spend to fill this gap,using taxpayers money of course. This one is too big. Just as the housing bubble was a symptom of a credit bubble, falling prices are a symptom of the bursting of that credit bubble.
  21. Good stuff PP. I ll reply start of week when I get a chance. Channels are certainly a good tool to use. I have been looking at ways of implementing channels more. The strategy of course depends if it is a side ways channel, upsloping or down sloping channel. Using a trend indicator to define the trend is a good technique, so then we can use a market breadth indicators such as the RSI to time entry's on the pullback...However, indicators don't work, but do work also. What I mean is using a market breadth indicator in a trending market if one uses them to pick tops or bottoms, could kill you. Also, the RSI comes with standard settings such as oversold when the indicator is under 30, and over bought when the indicator turns above 70. However, these standard settings can be optimised by changing them to fit in with the prevailing market conditions...To be honest, the standard settings will be touted in books on technical analysis, the reader takes them away with good faith and then finds they dont work. Markets are too efficient to use exacting past standards. Things need to be flexible and adjust to change in real time. One may find, and actually will find trying to get an edge based on what the books tell us will not be of any use. We are dealing with professionals who want our money in a zero sum game, so its good to think outside the box and question what is there. I have found that in a uptrend the RSI will not pull back to 30, at least not always, and in a strong uptrend will easily moce above 80. So for an uptrend I change the settings to 40 for oversold and 80 for overbought. In a downtrend, this can be changed to 60(overbought) and 20 (oversold)... By the way, this is not a strategy I yet use in of itself, but something I looking to incorporate when the conditions are ripe. However, it is something I want to take a deeper look at. GBP/JPY Here is a link from the software I use, a topical trade, using a channel in an uptrend, and how using a market breadth indicator such as the RSI can help us to find good buy entry's on the pull backs. I have changed the default settings of the RSI, to 80 and 40 instead of 70 and 30, as this is an uptrend. The uptrend is defined by the green volatility line which is below the price on the main chart. This line adjusts in real time to current volatility to prevent false signals as can be seen by the movement of the line as it expands and contracts due to increasing or decreasing price range on the price. As long as price is above this, it is in an uptrend as far as I m concerned. Cannot argue with the price. Also the green vertical line drawn back in mid February is when I go the signal to go long GBP/Yen, and actually Euro/Yen. I also include a green line at the 30 level on the RSI indicator. Any pullbacks between where the indicator is between 40 and 30 is a place to look to add positions in the uptrend....The green arrows on the RSI pointing upwards indicate entry points to buy at. Also we can see when price moves above 80, not 70(as per default) that the market often reverses at these points....We can't take these readings as "gospel" so to speak, however we should use them as a guide and watch how price action forms at these points. There is nothing to say in a strong up trend the RSI cannot go above 90 and stay there. So thats why risk management and get out points are important. The yellow band lines on the chart is the RSI indicator programmed into band form, as an overlay on the actual price chart, and uses and exponential moving average for smoothing. Good work PP, and the KISS attitude is for sure the way to go...however, I have found you sometimes need to go full circle...you have to wade throught the complicated stuff to arrive back at the simple. We should discuss the natural gas trade later in the week, as I think you are right, it is one to keep an eye on.
  22. While no one can really predict the timing and magnitude of any drops, getting one is an achievment, I think we need to let the market tell us that by price and fundamentals, and change in trend by looking at a long period of base building around a bottom which could last 2 years... At this moment the trend is down if we average it out with a couple of moving averages, and the fundamentals are lousy regards the economy. Also, the fundamentals specifically regarding property don't suggest we are anywhere near a bottom, they suggest we are over valued, rental yield, income ratio, etc etc I m not being negative, but I think 2012 is in someways not a bad time to buy, but in other ways, it is optimistic, if you want to sell the other house at a profit. That could be much much longer, depending on what value the £105,000 one is now. I see a nominal bottom in 2011/12, not sure when, perhaps 2012 judging by the "stickiness" of people to drop prices. What happens if in 2 years from now interest rates go up, and brings us back down into a protracted slump, ands the deleveraging continues? If we take a base building period last 24-36 months from 2012, then it could be 2014-18, until a real bottom is in,if we adjust for inflation. However, on a positive note, by 2011, maybe you will be able to drive a hard bargain, and get a price which means you are comfortable to buy to meet your circumstances. So thats good. If it is going to be your home, and you can get it at a good price, and you will be doing alot of work to it, then perhaps there could be some value. However, the key is how much you can get for your first home? I would recommend two mortgages, if it is going to be a struggle to maintain, especially if one is in negative equity.
  23. Couldnt have said it better myself. I think you said with that one line what I was rambling on, trying to say in my post. Your whole post makes sense. Although, I do feel the need to travel, but everyone truly is different, but the idea that of judging someone different if they are 50 miles away or 5000 is very true.
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