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House Price Crash Forum


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About Dispassion

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  1. Gold's looking pretty resilient to the 12% fall in oil !
  2. Dow and S&P close at fresh 3 year lows. Dollar-Euro not much changed, 1% from final support. Gold at 4 month high, 5% off all time high. HUI with some catching up to do, 9% off all time high, with good prospects given a gold surge.
  3. It looks like the fed have managed to avert disaster for now and somehow propped the dollar up again, but it's sure to take tumble some time soon. The markets are treating this like the problem's now solved, I'd half expected the markets to disapprove whether they bailed them out or not. http://www.moneyweek.com/file/mwu/1/50432/...-is-doomed.html
  4. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5773a770-5106-11...0077b07658.html US policymakers held crisis talks on Sunday over possible moves to bolster Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, amid mounting fears that failure to shore up the troubled mortgage groups could send markets plummeting on Monday morning. Officials said Treasury secretary Hank Paulson, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner, president of the New York Fed, were leading the talks. A statement on Fannie and Freddie, which are sponsored by the government but owned by shareholders, could come before the opening of Asian markets, they added.
  5. I've just read the latest newsletter from this site, I highly recommend it, it answers some questions that have been posed here recently, as decisively as TA can do. I can't discuss it here since it's a subscription service, but you can download it for free as part of their 30 day free trial, all they ask is for an email address, no credit card details. https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/trial-account.asp
  6. Does anyone have an opinion on whether the final support will fail for the dollar/euro next week?
  7. Good to have you back carseller, you've been gone a while. You're spot on about the politics here, the "threat to security" that's used to get voter support is a facade. The reality is that unless the US secure more oil reserves, their economy will be held to ransom for the coming decade or more, which would leave them struggling to support the current levels of military expenditure, you could argue that this itself, is a threat to national security, but the vast majority of this doesn't go on "defence" but on offensive strategies. There's no denying that Israel and US will have to clean up their act as nuclear weapons proliferate, but it's hard to imagine that they'll be used as anything but a defensive threat. To justify a strike on Iran, the presumption must be that Iranians will use nuclear weapons and don't mind if their country is wiped out in retaliation, which is just laughable to me. I'm betting that we won't see a strike on Iran and we'll see much greater weakness in the dollar over the next decade. The "housing crisis" and "credit crisis" are just the start, once we've got used to these, we'll still have the "food crisis", "energy crisis" and the "savings crisis" to contend with and by the time those clear I'm sure they'll have managed to cause a new crisis or two between them. All this with the back drop of the rebalancing of the world economy and globalisation, this could be the most exciting time for politics and economics that world has seen outside of a world war and I really hope it doesn't come to that.
  8. I'd argue that the Fed can do this and have access to infinite dollars, by devaluing them further. But it looks like the US will devalue the dollar whichever way they choose to act. So I'm glad you bought gold too. http://www.freedomworks.org/newsroom/press...p?press_id=2587
  9. I almost missed this story, it seems to have been dwarfed by the Fannie May and Freddie Mac story. I guess it depends if it holds a significant amount of gold that could be liquidated onto the market, if not, it's bullish.
  10. My previous chart's not too accuate, I had to match by eye, but I think the bottoming of leasing that you mention corresponds to the bottom of the hit in March, when all the shorts closed their positions. This chart shows it clearer, it looks more like the lease rates have been indicating, ever more strongly, to buy over the last 2 to 4 weeks and that there's as few shorts out there as there's been in the last 12 months. The fact that the 1 month lease rate is zero at the moment, seems to mean that they can't pay you short gold, sounds silly, but at the end of March the lease rates did go negative! The best explanation I can find for this is here, in relation to negative silver release rates: http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/fekete092807.html Whenever the price of silver significantly lags the rising price of gold, there may be panic short covering and the leased silver will be returned to the lessors in a hurry. If the lessors were not prepared for this avalanche of silver (because they expected that the leases would be rolled over), then they may not be able to absorb the silver flowing back to them. In this case the silver lease rate drops dramatically and may even dip into negative territory. It is important to be able to interpret this correctly. As I said, silver is delivered faster by the lessees than the lessors are able or willing to absorb it. Admittedly it is a market aberration, but whatever it means, it does not mean a shortage of silver. Far from it. It indicates a relative redundance of silver that momentarily cannot find lessees in view of an impending rise in the silver price.
  11. I'm presuming the only reason someone would borrow gold is to go short on the market. So lease rates could serve as an indicator on increasing or decreasing short positions, lower lease rates would mean less shorting and higher lease rates would mean more shorting, at the moment it would seem that there's very little shorting going on. This seems to make the chart make sense, falling lease rates correspond to strong price growth and rising lease rates correspond to high volatility. If this logic holds then when the lease rate starts rising again you may get a dip, whether or not it will be lower than today's price is something that I can't acurately predict, but the closest pattern I can find would put us in the same situation we were at the turn of the year, after which, gold rose 21% in 2 and a half months without seeing the price at the start of that growth period again.
  12. I don't know the fundamentals of the lease market, but I've hacked together a chart of the gold price vs leave rates, and I don't see a strong correlation.
  13. It looks like gold has rocketed through $950 already, so I'm not too concerned about negative news at the moment. These things could be negative for the gold price but I think there's a good chance that we're going to see some heavy speculative buying from here so news that is good for the gold price is likely to be more effective. I have no idea what a fair price for gold is given the current economic climate and I'm not sure anyone else does.
  14. In my view, anything from $810 upwards is possible without breaking the bull market, but there is a lot of support in the $800's. Gold has built a strong trading range now to blow off the bubble that it created by moving up 55% within 8 months, from here the support looks more powerful than the resistance. For me, a break above $950 is a strong buy and could happen before the end of the week, but you may need to be very fast. If you're looking to get in cheap then you might see $920 next week.
  15. Not entirely gold related, but at the heart of western economics. Audio from some of my favorite economic commentators presenting rational arguments for house price falls from 30% to 70%. http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2008/07/...low-will-it-go/ Video from John Authers with predictions for earnings. http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b...00779fd2ac.html Followed by predictions on the end of the bear market in stocks. Dow and S&P close at 2 year low: http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=593933 http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=599362 Halifax house price index is due before the end of the week.
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