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itzoverrover

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About itzoverrover

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  1. If your talking about Bob Prechter from elliott wave, well I heard him on an mp3 with Jim Paplava a few years back and he said silver was finished at $14 and that ALL commodities would go down. He's been consistently wrong on the PM's over the last decade. He's a deflationist and he is wrong because wer'e getting inflation, that is obvious. But it wouldn't surprise me if gold pulled back to $800. Pull up a chart of the 70's bull and you will see a few similar retracements.
  2. if you have to ask the question, you already know the answer.
  3. The private pension funds were a scam from the outset. That is why they were instigated in the eighties when interest rates (globally) were well up in the double digits with expectations of them remaining high. The pretty tables showed how we could all retire at 55 as millionares. No one would have been stupid enough to fall for it with the rates we have seen over the last 2 decades but once the system was in place it was too late. The pension money is already long gone, robbed out of the corporations by their owners and funnelled elsewhere. It's half the reason everything in the marketplace is so overpriced, it's the motivation behind nearly every IPO. Take a sh*t insurance company, up to it's eyeballs in liabilities and make it public, sell the shares to pension funds and pocket the cash, then spin the company off and sell the remaining 51%. This deal was a little late... Bear Stearns' Subprime IPO May 11, 2007 Everquest Financial is going public with risky mortgage bets purchased from its underwriter’s hedge funds http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflas...0511_093244.htm
  4. the mainstreem news outlets have certainly changed their opinions of late. Too late to save that lot though. Perhaps the mods should change this subforum to "The PAIN discussion on house prices"
  5. http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsear...p;tm=1205732658 Here you will find 29 rentals in 1 suburb on one site. There are other sites, numerous ads in the papers, many re agents that don't list the good ones that go quickly. What your seeing with rental prices here is a 2 level market. The older rentals, owned for years and bought at cheap prices and the new crop bought at exorbitant prices. RE agents are basically greedy and so are landlords. They will try and push up prices for all rentals as far as they can. But my point remains, there is only so much renters are prepared to pay and at a certain threshold they will move in together, sublet rooms, move home the mum's. The spin you quote above is just that, media spin. Who pays BIS Shrapnel? Do the renters? No, the RE industry does and if they came out with data like [Rents are rising because property speculators need to cover their mortgages] I don't think they would be on the REIA payroll very long. We haven't had a "housing crisis" here in living memory, now all of a sudden we do? After half the city re-mortgaged their homes and went out and bought investment properties specifically to rent? Massive investment in rental properties = rental shortage? I don't think so.
  6. If I had any gold coins from the roman era, or the Spanish empire, or any other empire in the history of the world I could take them to a dealer today and get $1000/oz for them. If I had any paper currency from bygone days I may as well line the bottom of a bird cage with it. Gold always holds value, paper currencies, fiat, always returns to THEIR intrinsic value. NOTHING. Every once in a while, every 50 or 60 or 100 years, the worlds economy is turned on its head. It is at times like these that gold proves itself as a store of true wealth. But try to get the herd of the day to see that? They will cling to the dying system and defend it with all their reserves. Herd always, always loses.
  7. I think the biggest stumbling block to a meaningful market correction (crash) is the Pension fund holdings and inflows. If the markets really tank where will this money go? I mean think about it, every week in every OECD country billions and billions come out of salary and wage earners pays and they go into the markets, the real estate markets, share markets, into places like Bear Stearns? If they collapse too far too fast the people will see their future retirement savings eviscerated. They would riot in the streets, anarchy! That doesn't mean it won't happen though...
  8. I agree with all of you. A lot of people looking at, or just now buying into precious metals are looking to the 1970's boom as a guide to where we might be heading. I don't think we're heading back to the 1980's myself, I think we heading back to 1880's
  9. we had a big pullback at $14, I can't imagine another meaningful correction until we get a good deal higher. I'll be watching the chart from 2000 and when I see the J-curve really taking hold I'll start to exit. As has been said here before, spreads at the top will be murderous if you try to sell then. Unless you sell privately
  10. The analogy here is being offered a reasonably priced investment property in 1992 and knocking it back because the agent fees are too high. I have been hearing these arguments for 4 years and all the while gold and silver has gone up and up and negated those fees with every increase. Please folks, no more premature bubble talk based on what is happening in the housing market. Gold and silver have only just arrived as far as the herd is concerned. The sky is the limit for them and if you buy in at the beginning of the bull run then you have plenty of room to get out when it tops. The skeptics on this thread today who put purchases off and off will be the numpties that buy in at the very top and lose their investment. Just don't get greedy folks, make some gains and get out.
  11. Property and gold are chalk and cheese muttley. Houses can double and trebble in a decade and gold can go up 15-fold. My point was that gold was flat (in a bear market) from 1982~2000. House prices in the other hand rose over that period. Gold should have risen? Like wheet, autos, steel, milk. But it didn't. Have you ever asked yourself why? It's no doubt true that gold is heading into a bubble, at some future point. But even if it's in one right now it's only in the beginning stages and has a lot more upside. I see nothing wrong with having confidence in the fact that I got into an investment at the beginning of a bull run. And being more confident seeing it rise as Ianticipated it would. I would view schoolboy investor error as buying a house for investment in the last decade and not selling it at the top a year ago. That is an error a lot of people will regret in the decades to come as they wait for housing to go up. You can see that clearly from past bull runs in gold that gold and other commodities rise when paper assets fall. We are now seeing the collapse of paper assets, which includes houses, owned on paper, as a large majority are.
  12. I can't imagine a lower limit myself. Houses will become financial millstones in the years to come as our oil-based economic paradigm collapses back to a realistic pre-oil system. Cheap oil has fueled the world economy and I don't believe hydrogen power or bio-fuel or any other means of powering our economies will ever be more than expensive oil-based novelties. We have had 30 years to make all these alternatives self-sufficient but we have failed. Take away the cheap oil and the wheels fall of everything. The only reason we have expanded our economies as far as we have was by borrowing against a non-existent bright future. We had to borrow because we could not generate the wealth, we have been growing ever poorer in real terms since the 1960's. Well it looks like the party is over now, there is nothing left to reinflate the global economy. No more economic growth, just ever increasing economic contraction until we flush all the debt and reach equilibrium with the remaining reserves. The primary reason house prices have appreciated over the last 60 years was inflation and speculation. Now we will see a new paradigm, ever falling prices as people move into all those vacant bedrooms and then double up in those bedrooms. Prices will fall but banks will insist on their payments, as will governments. We have seen this all before in history but we deny it until we're actually living through it. Only a handful in January 1929 even considered that the world could fall into a depression. 3 years later the masses were lining up to get handouts of bread and soup.
  13. Do houses pay a dividend? Not really, we look for capital gains. But I don't see how you figure gold is in a bubble? It's only had a 4 fold rise in 8 years and a chunk of that is simply inflation increases. Add to this the fact that in 2000 it was at it's lowest price in 20 years and I don't see a bubble. Bubbles are obvious because everyone you talk to in the office is raving about them and queuing up at the bank to borrow money to join in. When the papers start saying that gold can only ever go up in price I will know were in another gold bubble like the late 1970's . I think the current drop in RE prices will lead to the classic bull-trap formation and anyone buying it now, with the global economy on the ropes and real interest rates rising , is taking a gamble.
  14. I think you need to keep some savings in local currency don't you? I don't keep a lot myself because I discovered that over a 1~3 year period inflation rips the guts out of it. I tend to follow the opinion of Mark Faber, I look around and find what is cheap and has a reasonable expectation of appreciating in price and put my money there. I love chilli and 3 years ago bought 150kg of red kidney beans at $35/25kg sack. Now those beans are worth over $70 a sack! Around the same time I bought some gold and a sh*tload of silver @ $250 per kg and sold a little of it a year ago when it had doubled to $500/kg. I spent $3000 on this cool toy but it only cost me $1500 because that was what that much silver cost me originally. It's true gold and silver are not very nutritious, but neither are houses, or paper stocks. Mind you your a bit late as far as the PM boom is concerned so you might want to do your own due diligence and have a look around and see what is still cheap and has a reasonable expectation of a) Going up in value. not being wiped out by a global collapse. Good luck.
  15. I'm down here in OZ and here if I wanted to get such a supply I would go to one of the large bullion dealers in the city. You will do just as well with silver though (better IMO actually) Over half of my savings are in siver coin and bar because the gold/silver ratio is well outside historical norm of 16:1. Plus silver is in a 14 year supply deficit.
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