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dulwich buyer

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About dulwich buyer

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  1. high inflation ---> high interest rates ---> surge in reposessions ---> second more savage phase of house price crash. Only those who can grit their teeth, keep paying the mortgage, and negotiate hyperinflationary pay increases will see their mortgage eroded away. But we're more likely to see hyperdeflation or hyperstagbiflation than hyperinflation.
  2. isn't there usually a drop in new instructions over winter and then a bit of a surge of new instructions coming on the market in spring?
  3. a little research reveals why this property is generating so much fuss. First, look at all houses currently for sale in that location: http://www.globrix.com/property/buy/reading/kidmore-end Note the prices. The cottage is by far the cheapest thing on sale. next, note the price achieved by properties in that street in recent years: http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?co...&incode=9AX most are around a million. Clearly a very desirable location. It's a fundamental principle in economics that demand rises if you lower the price of a product. The cottage in question is being offered at an absolutely fantastic price, which of course is generating masses of interest. As for the EA's comment that she's been very busy recently - probably just an off the cuff comment made after a couple of busy days at work. Not a perfect barometer of market activity or reliable indication of a spring bounce.
  4. You're confusing currency devaluation with inflation - not the same thing. Devaluation of sterling adds to inflationary pressures (which might one day cause nominal house prices to rise while real prices are falling), but at the moment the UK does not have an inflation problem.
  5. why use the nationwide index at all? is it because there aren't enough auction transactions to show a clear peak in late summer 2007? I would be wary of concluding that auctions show 40% falls. Matthew oakeshott, one of the lib-dem's treasury team, did some research into aucction prices that suggested they'd fallen 23% off peak by september (http://www.libdems.org.uk/home/price-of-houses-sold-at-auction-drops-by-nearly-a-quarter-oakeshott-466800;show), based on a range of auction houses. Your figs are only for allsop, so could be skewed by a surge in the number of repossessed new build flats in northern cities. I think around 30% is a fairer estimate at the moment. It's interesting that the allsops figures are showing the market has stopped falling. Wonder if this will carry on into the new year or prices fall further as the supply of cash buyers dries up and more repossessions come up for sale.
  6. Is the 40% fall from peak relative to peak auction prices in 2007 or peak Nationwide house prices in 2007?
  7. I think it all depends on the vendor's situation, which is often difficult to know.
  8. Question for HonestEA, if you're out there, or any other knowledgeable estate agent. The recent RICS report said that stock levels are now down substantially relative to the high of summer 2008 and that enquiries from new buyers are up a little. If this trend continues, prices could stabilize. However, if a lot of new instructions come onto the market in the new year, we could have a repeat of 2008: supply surging way in excess of demand, followed by price falls throughout the year as the supply slowly falls. So my question is: what normally happens to supply at the start of an average year? I know that new instructions rose dramatically in early 2008, but can we expect that to happen in 2009? Is it always the case that stock is refreshed at the start of the year and the number of instructions rises, or is every year completely different? thanks in advance.
  9. one the nastiest buildings in one of the roughest, most depressing, most dangerous parts of inner city london. I've heard several reports of cyclists in walworth park being attacked by hoodies trying to whack them off their bikes by swinging scaffolding poles into their face. i would rather live up a dog's **** then pay 150K to live in this flat. Only someone who doesnt have a clue about the area could think it is a bargain.
  10. Some of the "new listings" will simply be re-listings where a property that didn't sell has been moved to a new agent. You need figs of genuinely new listings to make any conclusions about change in level of supply. In any case, you can't really conclude anything from such a small data sample - the trend won't be statistically significant. I use globrix to look up my postcode (SE22) and simply keep an eye on the overall supply. It tends to fluctuate a bit when globrix changes the way they count or adds/removes estate agents, but nevertheless I've seen a clear rise in demand since last year, also visible on Rightmove. There were about 250 properties when I started counting late last year and currently about 360 and still slowly rising. It would be very interesting if something similar is going on in SW London.
  11. I'm in a similar situation, having just sold my South London flat for asking price and decided to rent and keep and eye on the market. Estate agents tell me things are still slow and prices have already fallen 5-10%. However, it's spring and there has been some degree of recovery that is keeping sales ticking over, but only properties priced fairly low are selling. Whether this recovery develops into a healthier spring/summer bounce remains to be seen... If it does, London prices could well leap unexpectedly and catch people like me and you out. I will be keeping a very close eye on the market to see what happens.
  12. Thanks for your great posts Honest EA. Can you shed any light on the current health of the South London market, if that is part of your company's patch? It seems to be moving slowly from what I can tell, but there are also some signs of a spring bounce. Thanks in advance
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