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Everything posted by _w_

  1. IIRC Draghi himself said this is exatly how he wanted it, I think it was on Friday. Monetisation by the back door within normal central banking protocol to keep rates capped. People were too busy trying to digest what the politicians said (and remained blind to the change of attitude towards non-Greek euro sovereign bonds) but in the meantime euro banks were busy selling large amounts of CDSs on their own sovereigns.
  2. Buy property in the UK, credit crisis in Europe.
  3. Or Bernanke with the billions he got from those swap lines...
  4. I think it is one of the better pieces I have read on the subject lately. I think the author's text betrays a certain bearish bias but he has the honesty to admit that he hasn't got a clue. His justification for his bearish sentiment is summed up as follows: He doesn't explain at all why that particular factor should announce the start of a bear market but it only confirms what he readily admits: he just doesn't know. More honest than most and thus IMO, to be valued.
  5. In this instance I think the 'effect' you refer to may be the move to the downside as the lack of 'Christmas bazooka' is simplistically viewed as certain to lead to Armageddon. We'll find out soon enough. If you refer to the pavlovian wildebeests who sold bonds for years after Volcker raised rates, they're still very much around. They are responding to a different kind of stimulus today, namely QE, ZIRP and years of overall CB incontinence.
  6. You need to give it a few days. After the barrage of waffle we've experienced over the week end a knee jerk reaction is to be expected.
  7. Taxing me makes even less difference so I shouldn't be either. Let's just focus on the poorest, there's more of them.
  8. The only clear fact to me is that a divided Europe, something we've fought for for so long, is the only thing that was clearly in Britain's national interest. Whether we are in or out is another matter entirely. The damage to us comes from Europe being united and that is now, for the first time in history, done (probably). <Edit to add: not in history but since Tudor times as stormymonday's post below reminds me.>
  9. I'm not sure, I never really thought about it. Democratic representation means that people should be asked if they want to give up their right to self determination though. I do care a lot about that but it seems most don't.
  10. The thing is, I think it is time to accept that popular opinion is unlikely to make one bit of difference. All we've seen to date are that the majority of people don't care enough to move their butts to protest about what is happening. The tiny minority that does, if it can be bothered, is immediately marginalised. Even the Met officially branded the occupy St Paul momvement a 'terrorist organisation' last week. Combine these kind of oppressive actions with the overall lack of popular care for national sovereignty and the odds are nothing will happen. That's what the odds point to IMO anyway. People don't care.
  11. I believe you're right. Some smart people out there who could also have planeed for this, knowing the EU at the time was not ready for political integration but the euro would force their hands eventually. The conspiracy theory will live on.
  12. $4 trillion dollars for the top 1000 odd? That's $700 dollar per person at 7 billion people? Not bad.
  13. It is what is likely to happen now but it was not intentional I'm sure. Everyone was quite happy to remain non-commital thanks to an even balance of powers within the EU. Events forced their hands.
  14. This happens every time people are drowned in cheap money. Reign in the banks and you've solved the problem at its root.
  15. I agree with you as long as unfettered global capital flows are tolerated. Based on what we've just gone through I doubt they will be tolerated much longer, too much damaged has been caused this time. Edit to add: at least this is how I think Germany is evaluating the situation. Maybe they are blithering idiots, maybe they're right. Either way I support their effort.
  16. A shadow of what it essentially stood e.g. the center of banking secrecy. And yes, Switzerland is not doing as well as it was doing three decades ago but that's got nothing to do with it,.
  17. Indeed I missed the point. This trust in the UK looks to me like a trust in the fact that the interest of the City will be put ahead of the national interest no matter what. This is how I interpret what we are witnessing now. My take is we are paying too heavy a price for this as nation. And not only that but the large world blocks, US, China and now our neighbours in Europe, will be keen to find ways to take that business away from us. When they negotiate new political rules for global finance, the UK won't be sitting at the table.
  18. I can assure you it is more fun to live in Paris than in London. Business is another matter. I'm not saying the outcome is guaranteed although the US too would like nothing more than to get those US banks to come back to Wall Street.. Foreigners saying the system is fair and just when they don't have to pay taxes under the non domiciled rule is self serving drivel. Same as bankers saying no regulations that allow plunder are 'good for business' and fair and just. London could lose these advantages and is more likely to if it is isolated in Europe, nothing is set in stone.
  19. Italy was stripped overnight of the right to govern itself, if only for a limited time. The Italian people's response? A union decided to strike for ... 2 hours to protest against cuts that would affect its members. I heard another union may strike for all of .... 4 hours for similarly VI driven reasons. Some revolution.
  20. Another myth. The French liked the Brits in to lower the Germans' influence and the Germans liked to Brits in to lower France's influence.
  21. I'm not convinced as to what will happen either way but I'd like to pick those top two 'factors of competitiveness': 1. Availability of Skilled Personnel: do you actually know how many German, French, Italian, Spanish, American, Australian, etc. people work in the City? I am quite confident that English people are a small minority. Their reputation, particularly the public school alumni, is generally poor (if you speak to the foreigners). As to the foreigners, I am quite sure they would happily go to gay Paris if the UK was to lose... 2. Regulatory Environment: the only real advantage London has over the rest of the world. I think one cannot deny that this will soon be under threat even if the final outcome is unclear.
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