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Posts posted by _w_

  1. Ah, top-notch conspria-loon thinking there, I like it. <_<

    Despite the fact that Google has 246 new articles covering this, so it's not just the Daily Mail, it's more reputable sources like Reuters:


    Or do you only believe the news you read online, or in print, that reinforces your own beliefs and prejudices?

    There is no evidence Cameron is moving to NZ as he fears the collapse of civilisation. There is however some evidence he has done it to be closer to a film studio and to remove his family from the corrosive effects of Hollywood.

    Regardless of its subject, validity or supporting arguments the well bred gentleman's reaction to any non MSM propagated theory must be as follows:

    First, attempt to censor the discussion by labelling the idea as a conspiracy theory (old tricks are the best tricks):


    And then, close your eyes:


  2. I read it was a guarantee scheme...not a gift to the buyer.

    The buyers will receive the gift of an interest rate lower than they would have had to pay otherwise.

    The banks will receive the gift of being able to lend at a rate lower than market rates (and hence increase their business) while also pocketing the difference between what they will charge and rates of similar government guarateed bonds such as gilts.

    The overall increase in credit in the system backed by the public purse will also help in improving banks' crippled balance sheets. This is, I suspect, priority number one.

    Banks have been pushing hard and for a long time to get a UK's very own Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac. It is now done. We can expect subsequent governments to slowly but surely extend the scope of this new agency leading to more debts in society and an ever increasing risk to the government balance sheet, all to the benefit of bankers.

    Left wing or right wing, the UK's powers that be are all steadily pushing us towards inescapable debt servitude.

  3. http://www.news.com.au/money/property/cut-price-homes-on-the-market-in-australia-as-receivers-order-fire-sales/story-e6frfmd0-1226252424356

    REPOSSESSED homes are flooding the market with properties being offered at heavy discounts - some selling for just a quarter of their previous sale prices.

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/property/cut-price-homes-on-the-market-in-australia-as-receivers-order-fire-sales/story-e6frfmd0-1226252424356#ixzz1kWDqsk51

    Funnily enough, only two days ago Bloomberg was chanting the benefits of Australian Reits with returns exceeding 15%...

    Looks like some people are trying to bail out.

  4. I have to say, I can kind of see how pogroms have happened in the past against money-lenders.

    There is something about the trade in money which people naturally separate from other trade and then call evil. There is a lot of that on this site. There is a lot of willful ignorance here as well which is surprising because in the past there have been enough sensible people writing here put people right, but still many believe the moronic nonsense about

    Yes, bankers were as lenders mostly to blame for the financial crisis (but in a lesser way so were policy-makers and indeed many borrowers), and yes the problems were so large that the tax-payer is implicitly on the hook for their excesses. But that doesn't that mean that all banking is inherently a scam. In essence it is no different than any other business, and once ways are found to make the system less vulnerable to it and the necessary adjustments are made in the banks themselves, they won't be that different from say Glaxo.

    Many of you believe that you have unearthed this big conspiracy called "finance" and you have spent many years spouting nonsense on this site (and on others) about how everyone is getting ripped off. It is a very arrogant argument because implicitly you are saying that you are more intelligent than the 10s of billions who have lived in the last 500 years or so who failed to spot this terrible thing happening all around them. In that way you are no different from the buy-to-let investors who drove hpi between 2000-2007 and who genuinely thought they had discovered a magical asset class which could only go up in value, which was right under our noses and which no one else had discovered ever...

    The best advice i can give is this: inform yourselves, because the more time you spend on this, the more of your lives you are wasting.

    I will now apologise for the language above, but without changing it. I do know that opinions here are heterogenous, but i also know that I am speaking to number of people who will watch videos and speak ignorantly about "fractional reserve banking". I came to this site originally because I knew house prices were grossly over-valued and because I had been banned from all the btl sites for upsetting the natives. But the nonsense spouted here is just as bad as the "house prices will go up forever" stuff I saw between 2000 and 2007.

    So, if you are genuinely interested in the way things work, read up about it (even Wikipedia is ok on this stuff) and post back here- just don't acquire your knowledge from the loony fringe here and on (other) websites where lonny people write in capital letters and multiple colours.

    Have a good crisis - it is a long way from being over.

    Banking gives some individuals (corporations) the priviledge to create the commodity of exchange at virtually no cost and charge others interest to use it.

    The fact that this state of affairs still exists today demonstrates that it is a still fully operational scam. If it wasn't a scam, a knowledgeable population would have demanded the end of such exhorbitant priviledges a very long time ago.

    Coming back to reality.

    There is no end to how far people (including smart ones) will go so they can live with themselves whatever job they do. The extent of the denials and tortuous lies for the sake of their ego / self respect will never cease to amaze me.

    Having said that, I agree it would not be wise to bet on the end of this particular scam. Too many powerful and influential vested interests like riding it.

  5. Second thing that stops it, is a legal system with heavy penalties for fraud and negligence, and a high level of investigation. If you pay millions in penalties for failing to mention vitamins, then you mention vitamins.

    Our current mess is not a law of capitalism. It's a failure of the legal system (caused by corruption of the law makers), leading to monopoly pricing, cartels, passing the costs of side-effects on to the taxpayer, failure of the rich to pay tax, etc.

    Spot on.

    For those interested in vitamins and more legal shenanigans coming from the UN, M has something to tell you:


  6. Good piece, it's got everything:

    The raids caused indignation among locals and visitors in Cortina, who said that the high-profile resort had been unfairly demonised as a nest of rich tax evaders, when the problem was widespread.

    "Cortina is no different from the rest of the country," a local businessman, Guido Barilla, told Corriere della Sera newspaper. "The situation is worse in other parts of Italy. It's not as though tax evaders are all concentrated here. Owners of luxury cars may not pay their taxes, but nor do millions of other Italians."


    And the inevitable...

    Former members of Mr Berlusconi's conservative coalition, which was perceived as being soft on tax evasion, criticised the operation as a "media stunt" motivated by envy of the rich.

  7. deep pockets then...has the same effect

    Fair enough, but what should I do? The cat's getting old and I dread the next time it will be ill. Self diagnose / medication is not something I am keen on but I wouldn't know who to turn to.

    After this experience I expect a majority of vets to act similarly (those two were warmly recommended). Those 10X income home + BTL mortages have to be repaid, as are the CCs maxed on purchases of Prada tat and the 4X4s on HP. If I am correct in my understanding of their motivations then I would expect most of them to behave in this way.

  8. Indeed the chiropractor who could actually fix the problem is now working at Tescos stacking shelves, because he ran out of clients.

    On an individual level I do not think people are purposefully hiding knowledge. But with oncologists I have seen people I know being blasted with rounds of chemotherapy for years, given all sorts of drugs.. and they still seem to drop dead.

    There was a meta study from Sweden that was very interesting. It was when they started giving mammograms to basically the entire population of women over a certain age. And low and behold they discovered 3 times more women had breast cancer than before. Creating a big expansion of the industry.

    But the mathematicians studied the new results and look at the historical record of breast cancer in the nation and proved a shocking discovery. That 2 in 3 breast cancers the body must eventually cure itself. In most of those cases with the woman never even knowing they had breast cancer. The fact that the body cured itself of cancer was not shocking, that has been well known that it was possible, it was the probability that was shocking.

    Alas even with that discovery even in Sweden they are still going full bore with the mammograms, and then proceding to masectomies and chemotherapy. Still many Swedish women are dying of breast cancer, but in addition many are now dying from weakened bodies from the chemo. And substantial morbitiy from the treatments should also be factored in. However once the machine gets in motion, its very hard to stop it.

    I've recently had a similar problem with vets.

    My cat started being sick rejecting food with increasing frequency. The first vet came up with a thyroid problem (some hyperactivity, the cat actually sleeps all day) that required permanent drug treatment. As the problem seemed to be linked to digestion and the treatment solved nothing (the cat became semi comatose, stopped cleaning itself, and was still sick) we went to another 'recommended' vet. He first diagnosed cancer and recommended chemotherapy but the cat was miraculously cured when we said we would rather put it down. He then came up with the same thyroid problem as the first vet and so we continued with the original treatment despite our doubts and the cat becoming a little bit more poorly every month.

    After two years of the cat not recovering and many thousands of pounds we decided to do some googling. As things were going, we thought the cat would be dead within a couple of months if we didn't do something. It turned out our cat had trouble handling hairballs as it got older. The treatment: a diet of 'indoor cat' food available in any super market. The cat stopped being sick and has been recovering ever since (about three months).

    One of the things that made us look for an alternative solution towards the end was the vet's insistence that we should bring the cat for tests every three weeks or he would refuse to give us more pills.

    Predatory behaviour is not limited to bankers.

  9. What happens when they start doing your job for nothing?

    Do you still think you will get paid?

    The idea is that they are making crap that we cannot currently make as it would not be competitive if we were paying them minimum wage

    When was the last time you saw a 'made in Britain' sticker on a cup or a plastic dinosaur? How long has it been since we had ANY sort of textile industry in this country? how much coal could we export if it was being dug up for free?

    We have no fcking industry left ! What difference would it make if they were working at a car plant, since we cannot compete in these areas any more. We bloody could if the wage bill only consisted of good supervisors.

    Besides there is a dignity to working, putting something back, learning new skills, etc. Lefty governments just pussy around when we should be looking at a full blown workfare for all


    You've just been had and you didn't even notice it, You want some good old 'conservative' policies applied to the unemployed, but for this initiative you'd rather your job was protected by government policy: let the unemployed do jobs but stick to those I don't do. That good old conservative ideology goes out the door when VIs are at stake.

    I don't disagree with your original suggestion BTW although the consequences require more thinking IMO. Personally I'd get them to do public service jobs, if a few public sector employees lose their jobs as a result it would certainly be a lesser evil and probably for the greater good.

    I just thought I'd point how shallow those ideologically based arguments tend to be.

  10. Here's something that might help put things in perspective. There is a chasm between the bankrupt bank managed hysteria (they might yet succeed) and the real situation WRT european sovereign finances.


    The Fed vs The ECB - Presenting "The Correlation Of 2012"

    If there is one cross asset correlation that defined 2011 (and the greater part of 2010), it was that of the Euro-Dollar (EURUSD) currency pair and the S&P 500, which have correlated with near unison nearly all of the time. And yet, the stability of this correlation may be getting unglued, because as Goldman insinuated in its market roundup note from yesterday, it is "reasonable to think that the ... reflexive relationship between EURUSD and SPX...will take some time to break, but this correlation should start to fray." Why? Because, "like the FED before them, the ECB is aggressively expanding their balance sheet." Which brings us to the point of this article: much to the dismay of the armies of disgruntled bankers and investors demanding that the ECB print right now, the ECB has in fact been printing, as shown the other day. Only it has not done so in the conventional sense where it assumes an "asset" on its balance sheet while expanding a monetary liability, but indirectly through shadow conduits, such as repo and other liquidity backstops, also as shown yesterday, where no new currency actually enters the system, yet whereby the balance sheet expands just as efficiently (and in doing so, dilutes the underlying currency). It is well known that it has been our contention that in this centrally planned world the only thing that matters is the global provisioning of liquidity by the monetary authority, as the ultimate marginal determinant of Risk On behavior (and inversely Risk Off), is how much ZIRPy cash do speculators (and more importantly Prime Brokers) have at their possession (for outright and (re)hypothecated purchasing purposes). So here we would like to make a distinction: it is not so much how much cash one global monetary central planner will provide to markets, but how much the various standalone central banks will inject, in whole or in part. We contend that for 2012 the key qualifier will be "in part" with the ECB and the Fed printing (either outright or via repo) in staggered regimes, and thus the primary determinant of "risk", the EURUSD, will be the relative ratio of the two balance sheets. This can be seen on the charts below, the first of which shows just how dramatic the ECB expansion has been in the past 6 months, and the second showing the correlation between the EURUSD and the ratio of the Fed to the ECB. First, the balance sheet of the ECB vs the Fed:


    And second, the correlation of EURUSD vs the relative central bank sizes: i.e "The correlation of 2012"


    And where the EURUSD goes, broad risk will follow as all it indicates is a willingness of the respective monetary authority to increase liquidity. It also explains why the EURUSD is likely to trade in the 1.20-1.50 corridor for a long time, as any time the EUR currency plunges, the US economy experiences a dramatic slow down, and inversely, whenever the EURUSD approaches 1.50, Europe, and specifically Germany, sees a substantial slow down in economic output. As such, this range will specify the probable willingness of either central bank to engage in aggressive monetary easing. It is no surprise that since the ECB started "printing" in all but name in July, the EUR has seen a gradual and consistent decline.

    There is another corollary: while gold has been stagnant and dropping since peaking in September on disappointment that the Fed did not proceed with outright unsterilized printing and instead engaged in offsetting LSAP-LSAS QE3 under the guise of "Operation Twist 2", gold has completely failed to notice that while the Fed has been net silent, another bank has injected a whopping €500 billion in the past 6 months, or more than the Fed did in all of QE2! Ironically, the broader "risk on" crew has not missed this, and while gold continues to be stuck in the old paradigm, it refuses to comprehend that explicit guarantees of trillions in debt (such as the LTRO repo operations), is an equivalent operation to printing money.

    We fully expect the correlation arbs, which usually need someone to point out the glaringly obvious to them before they encode given relationships and correlation pairs into buy and sell signals, will very soon comprehend why the one most underpriced asset at this point, by orders of magnitude, is gold. For the simple reason that currency debasement has been going on feverishly, if behind the scenes, for the past 6 months, and gold is nothing more, or less, than a hedge against monetary dilution. By anyone. That most certainly includes the ECB as well.

    We, also, for one, hope to be fully prepared for the instant when the "Eureka" moment strikes.

    And here, for the benefit of said slowish arbs, to explain just why liquidity provisioning is the same as bond buying, is SocGen with an expanded narrative on how Draghi took away the bazook and replaced it with a thousand just as effective slighshots.

    From SocGen:

    There continues to be an expectation that the moves to a more disciplined fiscal union will clear the way for a significant increase in the scale of the ECB's support for the bond market. However, at December's press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi, emphasised that the Lisbon Treaty forbids the monetary financing of sovereign debt. We also believe that the ECB wants to avoid the moral hazard implicit in large scale bond purchases since this would potentially reduce the pressure on national governments to undertake the necessary reforms. Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank Chairman for example, has repeatedly argued that Italy "can live with interest rates over 7% for years." This is a reference to the yield curve simulations included in the latest BIS quarterly review for example, which demonstrate that even if the yields reached on 9 November were sustained, the relatively long maturity of Italy's debt stock (around 7 years) means that it would take years for the debt service costs to snowball significantly. This is a clear indication, that in the Bundesbank's view at least, the ECB will not be intervening to set a ceiling for bond yields.

    In our view therefore, any increase in ECB bond buying is likely to come in the form of greater longevity rather than an increase in size, although the ECB may not acknowledge this explicitly. Even so, we envisage the ECB's SMP continuing at roughly its current volume throughout 2012 and potentially into 2013. This probably implies a further €200-250bn of bond purchases over the next twelve months which would mean the ECB is effectively absorbing the new gross supply from Spain and Italy. This implies roughly a doubling of the SMP to the €500bn mark over the next 12 months. Overall, when one takes into account all of the ECB's policy initiatives then amounts involved are indeed adding up. Taken together with the relaxation of reserve ratios, which we think is worth about €100bn, the roughly €300bn of excess liquidity the ECB and the ECB's covered bond purchase programme (currently just over €60bn but planed to increase by another €40bn), then the ECB's interventions are actually very sizeable. The extension of the ECB's money market operations to 3 years may also prove to be significant since this will provide banks with additional funds that are in turn likely to be invested in sovereign bonds up to a similar duration – something that the French Central Bank Governor, Christian Noyer has described as "our bazooka".


  11. One more thing so there is no doubt.

    Major and Lamont as well as Thatcher and Lawson, printed and spent like maniacs and while fixing our currency to the Deutsche Mark. There should be no doubt in anyone's mind that in this, they were in the same league as the Papawhotstis and Berlusconis of this world. If anything we could see them as leaders, precursors, of a general move of politics towards crookedness and incompetence.

    Twerp is too generous an attribute.

  12. Just for the record, in case the ideologically blind and stupid manage to present Lamont and his cohort as competent men.

    The Lawson economic 'miracle' and subsequent tory policy was to print lots and lots of pounds and appear to be masterful economic managers.

    Then one day people realised there were many more devalued pounds than deutsche marks, something the government at the time was too thick to see coming which is a bit of a laugh since they did it all on their own.

    The subsequent humiliating Greece like ejection from the ERM then came as a total surprise to the idelogically blind and stupid of the time (they haven't changed one bit) and was blamed on speculators such as Soros. This was to avoid Major and Lamont, as well as their galactically incompent predecessors, the phenomenal embarassement of being recorded in the history books as just as bad as Blair and Co. ten years later. They did it though, quite an achievement.

  13. Unless you can cite a contrary reference I don't believe a London mayor has the power to do any of this. Even a simple voluntary but state-run agency would doubtless be a legal minefield.

    We are not a pure democracy, what a politician thinks is a vote winner and what they can actually legally deliver are very different.

    I think this is essentially Livingstonian hot-air.

    If it's not the mayor now it will be an MP later. It could be via a a massive tax hike on properties with rents above a certain value per square foot.

    Eventually, as landlords refuse to lower their rents as real wages fall, the pressure will become enormous. Money printing leading to price controls is as old as the world. I'd say it is probably inevitable, the only question is how long it will take.

    It will all be very unfair as landlords have nothing to do with the money printing but they will be blamed anyway. It could not happen to a better bunch of people.

  14. It is? Why is that?

    Would landlords choose to use this agency over a privately run one?

    I rent. The balance of power between landlords and tenants is overwhelingly in favour of landlords, some modicum of security of tenure would be just about civilised. It's not just about price.

    I am assuming there would be an element of coercion in such a scheme that whilst unfair, would fill me with delight. There are some types of exploitation I can't stand.

    Again perhaps you could explain the logic that makes you think this would be the likely outcome.

    Someone wants to be elected every so often. There are more tenants than landlords.

  15. And those farmers put it in MF Global to hedge deflation.


    > or buy silos to get increased pricing power in a favourable market: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-14/buffett-s-surging-silo-sales-boosting-grain-costs-for-cargill-commodities.html

    I agree that food prices affect everyone but my point is they can come back down faster than they went up. All it takes is people to stop speculating or the end-users to stop buying it.

    > If more money is created it has to go somewhere, where it goes is speculation but eventually the price of something will go up and prices will rise in aggregate.

    I'll have macaroni cheese instead of hamburger for dinner.

    > Macaroni prices will go up, wheat prices will go up and beef prices will go up too because of rising feed prices that will lead to lower beef production.

    I'll have a glass of water instead of a coke.

    > Water prices will go up and so will coke prices despite lower consumption because its production uses water.

    The underlying price has to be supported by something real. Real inflation (wage inflation) or a real demand.

    > The underlying price is supported by the amount of money/credit in the system. The more there is the higher prices go.

    Otherwise it's purely speculative price inflation.

    > The story of our lives... :) A part from post war reconstruction and post 1980 globalisation where sound investment opportunities were abundant we are struggling today with an investment landscape in which a scarcity of investment opportunities lead to below inflation returns. You can do nothing about it or try to keep up with the inflation somehow.

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