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About economiccycle

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    HPC Poster
  1. http://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-celebrities/actors/minnie-driver-net-worth/
  2. S1 is clearly the most well balance logical human beeing you could hope to meet on HPC and thanks for helping me undersatbd the differecne between sarcasm one of your specialties andm irony that you seem blind to
  3. The number of homes/flats rented privately rented out has increased dramatically over the last 12 years. As the share of households privately rented has increased from 10% to 14%. Thats a 40% increase. I suspect that is why rents in the area that I look at are only a bit more than 20% greater than they were in 1998. About £330 per week now for an exlocal in a “posh part” of Battersea near battersea bridge. Back in 1998 most of the good folk I rented to were newly qualified accountnants and the like on about “25k per annum. In 2008 I was not renting too newly qualified accountants I was
  4. If I believed house prices were going to fall by more than 15% and I disliked BTL landlords surely selling to a buy to landlord would be the goal. As whoever buys would be making a very poor financial decision I think the only reason not to would be if I actually did not believe house prices would fall
  5. I follow prices of 3 bedroom ex local authority flats near Chelsea/ Albert Bridge. SW11. Bought quite a few back in 1999 to 2001 Have paid off over a third of my initial mortgages for these. They used to go for 90k to 100k but at the peak about 270k to £290k . Briefly down to 250k in spring summer 2009. A few sellers on the market at £270k plus just not accepting offers under the 250k stamp duty threshold. Did get a vendor asking £249,950 and they had three investors offer asking price within a week Prices not booming but quite steady An Italian chap bought one a few months ago as
  6. I can not see how a reduction in housing benefit will not lead to a reduction in rents . In 1999 Rents in the posher 3 bedroom ex local authorites in Battersea the part near the albert Bridge were about 270 to 290 per week. The people who rented them were young profesionals trainee accounts etc on 20k to 25k per annum. These flats sold for 90k. In 2009 Rents were 300-320 These had been a dip in 2008 and rents were about the same as they had been in 1999. The people who rented them were in less well paid job say waiter restaurant kings road on 20k to 25k per annum. These flats wer
  7. I would guess nobody understands economics at that level except the poster
  8. She came, she saw , she laid waiste, and I suspect has better things to do with her time
  9. I do not think you understand the HPC rules you can only give anecdotal evidence of properties beeing worth at least 25% less than they were in 2007. Surely though you must know the answer more than anyone replying to you. I follow the prices of 3 bedroom exlocal properties in the posher parts of SW11 where prices are now more than the last peak, three bedroom ex locals in sW4 clapham park where less than the peak 10% ish. Four bedroom houses with garden in SW12 where prices are similar to the peak. If properties are advertised at way above the price they are actually selling for and the
  10. Most 20 somethings I know share those on teacher type salaries paying about £500 pcm those on higher typically paying £700pcm with 4 of them in a decent though not particulary posh part of SW London. A friend of mine Indian doctor living with his parents for the last 4 years is now one step up from the lowest level of a consultant . He has just I guess turned 30 and lives like a church mouse checking out the NHS pay scales I assume he is on over £80 k rising to over £100k . I would be amazed if he has not saved about £100k since 25 though its not something I have asked him. He has been
  11. I do not have a lot of time to post on a regular basis and I am not going to spent time getting actual figures for a graph of what food etc represents as a percentage of earnings since 1950. ** real growth of 2.5% ove 50 years enables a guestiamte for a basket of expenditure. As I said I do not have the time to get numbers for food, fuel, clothing etc but I would guestimate 3 to 4 times . ** 1.025^50=3.43 So if we had real food inflation ( and all the other necessaties ) of 15% per annum and no income growth for a long time in 8 years necessaties as a percentage of income would be back to
  12. I tend to believe prices will stagnate for a few years and then increase slightly more than earnings maybe 1% per annum thereafter due to generations becoming wealthier . I think this effect is gradual increasing the price earnings ratio from 3.5 to 4.5 over tha last 30 years gradual increase with a economic cycle to create peaks and troughs. I think the price earnings ratio is too simplistic ================================ My grandparents spent most of their money on food, clothing, fuel, basic necessities the little that they had left over They had left over was spent on rent and a s
  13. Having read the PCW article they expect on average house prices to be 30% higher in cash terms to the 2007 peak by 2020. If prices are about 10% lower than the 2007 peak that means about 40% increase from today or a bit less than 4.0% per annum allowing for compounding over the next 10 years
  14. If the revenue accepts the home as your main residence you will not need to pay CGT with the facts you have given I am not sure that they would so I would live there myself I notice that the coopertive bank will offer a five year deal at 4.19% if you have a 25% deposit. To avoid interest rate risk Over 25 years the initial payment of capital and interest would be £484.55 About £5,814 per annum 484.55=(£90,000*(.0419/12))/ (1-(1+.0419/12)^-300) I would imagine a 90,000 remortgage would pay of your existing mortgage. If you move in you can claim rent a room for the first £4,250 of incom
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