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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by needle

  1. He'll probably just come back and tell you that hes got a massive **** so the economy will be fine - thats about the level of his arguement.
  2. lol - not tall enough to reach the keyboard and answer a simple question. Who are the "95%" of analysts who believe in a rate drop perplexed? Name a few, show us some links, reports, something, anything! We all believe you (snigger, snigger) but you gotta back it up for the record. PS - reports from the Bank of The North Circular Road, or quotes from "www.perlexed-cant-answer-his-critics.com" dont count. Tighten those braces city-boy.
  3. You cant see where the shock would come from? As it happens I agree with you it will probably be oil. but.... How about the declining dollar? Credit crunch in China? Recession in EU? Rising UK unemployment?
  4. More bullsh!t from apollo. I mean ffs, its written like the usual EA ****** "Warington enjoyed MoM and Annual HP" Grappenhall is about 17 miles from manchester and about 13 from knutsford. "Close to the motorway links" is not a reason to buy, unless you like the traffic and noise. There is no HPI. These are asking prices. Apollo put yer head back up yer **** and f*** off back to your little estate agent office.
  5. Come on then bright boy - name some of the 95% of analysts who predict a rate cut. Can u even name, cite, link or quote 10 of them? Theres a challange for ya. Prove you're not the webmaster trolling for hits. Name 10. Surely an Uber-genius like you shouldnt have too much trouble proving your point.
  6. Grappenhall is nice. Its the better part of Warrington. Not much in the line of facilities though. Nearest shops etc.. are in Warrington. Looked at area last year, EAs were calling me non-stop. A 3 bed semi in the village was going for £210k. Had just seen similar in London, close to shops, tube, park for same price. Combination of EAs pushing crap and London prices meant I walked away. Possible interesting new industrial development happening in the next few years but a major bypass is penciled in for the area - meeting the main road by the canal at.... grappenhall. I suspect it will become a motorway junction soon. Call the council and ask for details. I did. Saved meself £200k.
  7. its a word from the line of a song I was listening to when I opened my first email account...waaaay back in 1996. Still in use though....
  8. Infected and Mind Bomb are better albums though.....
  9. "But inflation is low - look how well the british economy is doing compared to France, Germany etc" This is part of the"big lie". The "british economy" is doing (and has always done) about the same as France and Germany. Take a look at the dole figures, for example. Lower or higher than Fr and DLand? The same really, they count "unable to work" as unemployed. If we did our UE rate would be about 9%. But if you call it "disability benefit" its not dole....eh......right?
  10. The recent drop in the value of sterling has already wiped billions off the value of houses. The more savvy on the board already know this. btw, sterlings fall and the increase in oil prices virtually guarantee there will not be a drop in interest rates...
  11. FFS man, are u stupid? B U Y F L O W E R S ! ! ! Talk about how you "feel" for 10 mins (let her talk for 3 hours). Wash a pot or two, tell her about a beautiful butterfly you saw today, and mention that "that Jordan" is an artifically enhanced tramp. Youre onto a winner mate, trust me. :lol
  12. TTRTR says "And they tell me I'm crazy for finding a positive outcome for every piece of news. What they don't realise is that I favour property because it is a growth asset. And we all know that Govts & BOE's (sure, there's only 1 BOE, but anyway) favour AND WORK TIRELESSLY for growth" I wouldnt call you crazy for being optimistic - I'd applaud it. I consider myself to be optimistic - but realistic. I dont see a huge drop in property prices, but I do see protracted period of economic difficulty. The general bull position is that wages are rising, therefore, to bring back market equilibrium prices just hold steady as wages rise. This however ignores the fact that the pressure on wages is strongly downwards - china, manufacturing, outsourcing, energy prices etc... I dont know where all this is going to end... but if any of us did "by this time next year we'll be millionaires" ©Trotter Trading @ttrtr - Ive had some dealings with govt bodies "dedicated to growth" of late and I can tell you, first hand, they are f*****g useless.......
  13. "I'm in an excellent pension scheme" - im not sure this is a cast iron proposition. "If the cost of the house I buy will be covered by the tax-free pay out does it make more sense to take an interest-only mortgage rather than a repayment." - This is an interesting and intelligent analysis but it begins with an "If". "I can't see a downside..." - Personally if I cant see a downside I look harder. There is very little in life without a potential downside. Thats not to say that you are wrong, you might be right. But I suspect you sniff a "too-good-to-be-true" scenario as well. Best of luck with whatever decision you make.
  14. Dont forget that "experts" make a living from what they do. Halifax, for example, sell houses and mortgages. If both are in decline, they make no money, so they talk it up. On the other hand, there may be some very shrewd people, who missed the property cycle and have an interest in talking it down for a while. Statistics mean little unless you understand how they were collected. Its a beautiful day. Go out round your area and see what you see, you gotta make up your own mind.
  15. The IMF sees support for the dollar from the American Jobs Creation Act. The measure, passed in 2004 (but only fully clarified in January 2005), allows US companies to repatriate profits previously held abroad at a 5.25 percent tax rate rather than the 35 percent that would otherwise prevail. To meet the provisions of the act, companies must outline how the funds will be used in a plan that requires executive approvals. The tax advantages of repatriation may lead to substantial flows, to be reported as negative direct investment abroad, and may have become significant starting in the second quarter of 2005. http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2005/0...rkets-this.html
  16. Look, to be quite blunt, if a gold mine or an oil well is suddenly found in your area house prices are going to rise, regardless of the economic conditions. 1 - what you've seen is a rise in "sold" signs, not sales. Call about one of the "sold" houses, pretend you havent seen the sign and ask can you view. If the answer is yes, then its either 1.******** or 2.not a convincing offer/sale 2 - Estate agents will try to get you to lift your price. Have you any evidence of "full asking price" offers other than from the EA?
  17. I dont get this?!?! What do you mean 35 out of 538? Houses? 35 sold out of 538 on the market? Do the land registery keep records of houses for sale?
  18. This is not enough. There is a projected shortage of homes in the UK. Therefore the logical conclusion is that prices will rise. However, house prices cannot rise ad infinatum because firstly the FTBs are priced out and then the BTL's (who supply property to those who cannot afford to buy). So whats the solution? Well, my opinion is that house price inflation has ended but there will always be those who (at some stage) cannot afford to buy. We've all been there. The problem with the market is that prices have risen so far that FTBs cannot afford to buy and BTL's cannot make a profit providing an alternative. Essentially, the future demand is already priced into property. And yet the projected demand has not arrived (and will not arrive for about 8 years, give or take). Ergo - to keep the market moving, prices must fall. It is, and always was, about the market. I am a bear, but a pragmatic one, so I see things as they are. Perhaps looking at alternatives would be an option. My view is that the price of land will continue to escalate, while the price of housing slides. This will, inturn lead to a reduction in prices, and therefore pressure on builders to cut margins. If you want a good, secure return, buy land and self-build. Or you could wait (like the others) for some sort of Nirvana to arrive. As with anything in life, if you are sitting back waiting for a solution its not gonna come - alas you cannot "quantify" this sentiment/attitude in a report. But, I wish you the best of luck with whatever you decide to do.
  19. I reckon a good deal of the rise is already priced into this area. I know it quite well, took a punt on it 4 years ago - couldnt afford to now. Its still pretty down at heel, so theres a lot of room for some upwards movement. BUT - people overlook one thing - the residents. This area is not for the brightest sparks. To be frank, its very chav. Lot of social probs that wont be washed away by money. Its dirty, dangerous in places, lot of drugs, guns etc... Very few public amenities. Its also in a major flood plain. Finally, the Olympics are 7 years away.
  20. Brilliant. Hits the nail on the head.
  21. If yer coming on the internet asking for advice youre gonna get mugged. The only thing I would ask is 'how or where can I get information?' Best to do your own research.
  22. Initial figures indicate a 60% drop in House Sales. I am surprised myself that the drop in volume is so severe - but it appears to be uniform across the country. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...05entry146005 Im sure the bulls will whine but these are the facts. Maybe all of May figures are not in but I can calculate the figures for say, Feb-Apr or Jan-Mar if they'd like. Course they could do it themselves but the truth hurts. If you could post your own postcode research below that might be useful....
  23. Heres another one for ya E13 - East London Jan-May 2004 460 sales Jan-May 2005 189 sales (assuming all sales are in) Lets do some sums kiddies - 189 as a percentage of 460 is 41.08% Therefore sales volumes have dropped by 59%. YOY. Even if the figures are wrong by 100% (meaning that twice as many houses were sold as are on the LR figures) it would still indicate a drop in sales of....30%. I bet the bears have nothing to say.....
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