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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by needle

  1. This is where I'm at. There is a phrase called "over-fitting" where the data (which incidentally is incomplete until the cycle finishes) is forced to fit the model rather than the other way round. Logically then, until the cycle is complete the hypothesis (a crash is coming) cannot be verified. Because an incomplete cycle = incomplete data no model can claim to be accurate. Just look back a few weeks to the "petrol spasm" - peoples reactions cannot be predicted.
  2. Assuming that your Fibonacci series analysis is valid, at least in part tell me this - Why isnt everyone using it and spotting the trends you highlighted on the board? Im not being funny, just confused - if it works (again I know there are other influences) how come you can make money. Surely everyone having this knowledge would use it and the market would be cyclical and predictable. Thanks in advance. Keep on posting!
  3. It was a shoeshine boy who caused Joe Kennedy to sell his stocks in 1929. Saved his fortune and.....well, you know the rest. The link cited above (http://www.stock-market-crash.net/blog.htm) hasnt been updated since April 2005. ...so much for imminent
  4. Thats interesting but where for example is Bank of Ireland? It operates here and has several retail outlets. Another point - which is better Bradford & Bingley plc STA A1 B Bristol & West plc STA Aa3 C+ B+W has higher deposits but a weaker strength rating !!??!! Anyone?
  5. Have been asked about where someone should advertise a property for sale in The Phillippines. Rightmove? Any ideas where this person could sell/advertise to an international market. Websites, companies...anything really Help appreciated...
  6. They'll probably be protected like the US airlines. Something nearing 50% of Americas airlines are in, is it Chapter 11 bankruptcy? This allows US firms to trade when insolvent. See WorldCom for a recent example. Many US companies are effectively trading bankrupt while jobs are lost as European competitors dont have the same protection. So you see, Ford and GM wont fail - they'll go into protective bankruptcy until debts are restructured (ie pension funds are shafted) and the shareholders get their money.
  7. Two articles which may be of interest http://news.ft.com/cms/s/88fbb7e6-3427-11d...000e2511c8.html http://news.ft.com/cms/s/fac2e51a-3667-11d...20abe49a01.html
  8. MSc Comp Sci. Its a bit of a worry that so many of us are "over-educated". If I had to do it all again I probably wouldnt bother with university....
  9. Germany can have a boom when they sort out their labour laws - true. Until then I'd wait. Specifically, wait and see what flavour of government gets the Chancellorship. If Mrs whats-her-name gets it, expect an upswing. If Mr Big Eyebrows gets back in expect more of the same - he hasnt got the balls for reform. Aside from that if youre thinking of investing and letting someone else do the work, youre gonna get mugged.
  10. This is exactly my position. I do however agree with the main thread - prices are not falling in the manner they "should". I like to think I've missed something. Problem is, I think this will just slide slowly for the next 10 years. Prices will stagnate or fall slowly (top down) and wages and inflation will rise slowly (bottom up) until we are back near long term trends.
  11. Good stuff. Will be keeping a close eye on your posts from now on...
  12. All of these properties have been on the market since about July 2004. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-722...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-424...pa_n=3&tr_t=buy http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-733...pa_n=4&tr_t=buy http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-500...pa_n=6&tr_t=buy http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-625...pa_n=6&tr_t=buy http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-548...pa_n=6&tr_t=buy Some have dropped about £5k-£10k but its not nearly enough for the area.
  13. Right, so if you dont own your own place where do you live? At home? zzzzzz.....another trotskyite right outta college. Why dont you FO back to your parents place then? Repugnant is when people post half-arsed opinions.
  14. Firstly (and most obviously) you are of course relying on HPI to carry out your plan. The very HPI that people here are ranting against. Before that you are relying on a HPC to make houses affordable. So you want a HPC followed by HPI that you can benefit from. I suspect most of the other mugs on here want the same. S'funny really. What they fail to see is that most of you on here actually want is more of the same. The only reason some people are so sore is because they missed it last time round. PS - If you cannot find a 2 bed flat in N London for that money, even now, you shouldnt be buying property mate. (But I guess you want the cafes, canals and culture that Krusty and the Sunday supplements waffle about.)
  15. I quite agree. Its obvious (even from this board) that there is a lot of demand ready to be unleashed. I too am minded to make silly offers and see what happens - there is a possibility that credit will be tightened in the event of a proper crash. Maybe you should up your offer to £95k or £97,500 and see what happens? Do keep us posted.....
  16. Dead...cat.....and eh..... dammit cant remember.
  17. Wheelie bins? What a moron. Switch to bio-diesel there are plenty of alternatives. Its not shortage of fuel people are worried about, its change and the sacrifices they will have to make.
  18. Amen to that. Lemme tell ya people, if these truck drivers pull the same stunt again you can be sure that they will be heavily infiltrated by MI5 (like they were the last time). If they have a problem with high oil prices get em and their fat f4cking truck-driving asses out to Iraq to sort the problem out. Cheshire my ar5e.
  19. See, now I'm torn. Brainclamp has been a class A a55hole on here for ages. He probably still is. I dont care for his emigration fetish either but I have to say he is on to something here..... So Brainclamp - I dont see immigrants as causing house price rises, merely that the increased spending associated with HPI attracts more people. I dont like your tone on immigration, so you'll stay on my "d1ckh3ad" list but I might just move you to the "informed d1ckh3ad" list.........if youre good.
  20. Yet another muppet who contradicts themselves. If renting is the smart move - the people who provide that accomodation are quids in. They hold an asset that the "smart" people are paying for. Britain is moving to a renting culture. In the next 15-20 years the majority of people willl be permanently renting. Thats the way its done in US cities and throughout Europe. What you are all failing to see is that home ownership itself is the anomaly. Not prices. In the past very few people owned homes and that is returning. Its not the end of the world, just the end of an economic age. Blah blah blah the media spin machine - except when it suits you. How about this - these articles are just media spin to get you used to the idea of renting and bouy up the BTL market. Cause thats what it is. But, you're all on your HPC bandwagon at the moment. Feverishly typing-in your agreement with the maddest of propositions. Sheeple. ©Bubb
  21. Saw a report today on Business Lunch that cautioned against this sort of bandwagon-ism. The rate of increase has fallen - but its still an overall increase. The facts are that prices will slide over an extended period - we are NOT going to wake up next monday to find a HPC happened on Saturday night while we were all out on the razzle. This of course makes it difficult for buyers trying to find the bottom - jump too soon you lose out, leave it too long .....ou lose out. We live in interesting times....
  22. ..notice the price graph only goes to June 2005.....
  23. Welcome to HPC Appletizzy. (Cool name btw.) Take a look around, and if you have any questions the people on the site are (mostly!) friendly. "No such thing as a stupid question - only stupid answers."
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