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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by needle

  1. I know a very hardworking couple (a builder and a nursery teacher) who lost 10 houses in the 1990's. It was an immensely difficult time for them. (They are good, honest, hardworking people, so I dont want to hear any "serves them right" comments.) Funny thing is they are at it again. Exposed this time in both the UK and Ireland. Makes you wonder.
  2. If inflation takes off, surely there will be no HPC? Secondly, if it takes off wouldnt we all be better getting mortgaged to the hilt and letting inflation take a slice out of the debt?
  3. http://wired.com/news/technology/0,70034-0...tw=wn_tophead_3 Briefly covers tech stocks, housing, markets.
  4. Gotta say "fair play" to TTRTR at least he keeps coming back in spite of all the stick he gets. But while I respect opposing opinions, I gotta say, this is another "Is he waving or drowning?" post. However, contrary to what he says, I suspect that reality is starting to hit home and he is not too upset about losing this one. I dont for one minute believe that newspaper stories are the catalyst. Keep it up TTRTR you crafty bugger.
  5. Howdy G Hickley - welcome to HPC! "One wonders why our governments have done so little to reduce our economies total dependency upon oil." Methinks youre gonna fit right in here, there are many people wondering the same. That said, maybe we should begin ourselves to reduce our dependency on oil at an individual level. Any ideas?
  6. 1 - Asking prices are not selling prices. If they asked for £600k would that be a 100% increase? No. It would be a highly exaggerated asking price, nothing more. Which is what youre looking at now. 2 - The estate agent or homeowner does not determine the value of a property - the market or buyer (i.e you) does. They can ask what they want. Once you understand this fundamental tenant of economics you'll begin to see things differently. Best of luck with whatever decision you make!
  7. The main "joke" going round about increased fruit prices bears a lot of truth. Quite simply, exotic fruit prices remain the same. Its the cost of shipping and storing that has increased (and will continue to increase) as the oil price increases. PGST - Permanent Global Summer Time - where summer fruits are available all year round is soon to end. ON that note, summer fruits will abviously be cheaper in summer when they are grown in our own hemisphere, not shipped in from Thailand or Brazil or somewhere.
  8. How about L.I.F.E - Low Inflation F***ks Everyone?
  9. I think you've wrapped it up nicely there Anto (very Dublin name btw). Nothing to add or subtract. There are 2 factors you need to consider here Ronnie 1 - If rates increase from 2.25% to 3.5% thats something like an increase of 60% in interest payments. Most people dont realise this. 2 - Ireland has a scheme similar to an ISA in the UK called an SSIA. About 4 years ago the government agreed a £1 bonus for every £5 put into this account. The first accounts mature this year. An expected £4 billion will enter the economy and prolong a boom that should have died long ago. How this will end, I have no idea, but I cant help thinking it will be messy.
  10. Excellent subject for a poll Frugalista. This is a major issue and influence on HPI. Round our way there are hundreds of lovely 3/4 bed semis with nothing but some old dear and her cats rattling in. It'll be the same for about the next 20 years. This is the same generation that gets full social welfare and pensions which we (in my 30's) have to pay for but wont benefit from. Kill the old!!!!
  11. Its different here in Manchester. There has been very little new property on the market (new privately held property - theres tons of 2 bed duplex city living cardboard boxes). Its just a stalemate. As for rents - I dont see much movement - but if I were a landlord and the rates went up I'd see more sense in raising the rent. This idea that people are "trapped" and will immediately crumble as soon as rates rise is a long way from the truth. People who bought in, say, 1997 are sitting on a mountain of equity. Even if they sell at half of todays prices they are still in profit. If they dont sell, they dont care - the mortgage is very very small and they are not under pressure to sell.
  12. Well, very bad for the currency anyhow. Very interesting analysis Frugalista. What is your take on the effect of all this on the Euro and/or small currencies like sterling?
  13. Its because some people are too stupid to figure it out. It needs to be repeated and repeated over and over. Its for those dumb as f**k sun readers, y'know.
  14. I vote for stagnation - but I'm sure there will be stiff opposition to that.
  15. Yes a bank could collapse because of bird flu. Equally a bank could get into difficulty if a regular flu virus took hold. A chain of hair salons could go bust because of bird flu either. I think any of the above scenarios are unlikely though. Scaremongering really. There is a distinct whiff of "fire and brimstone" from HPC of late. Anyone else notice it?
  16. Brazil gets something like 40% of its "petrol" from sugar cane.
  17. And thats why we have immigration. Britain has successfully managed this for over 150 years. With an open Europe and more air travel it will accelerate even further. Yes, there will come a reckoning, but it may not be as sharp or as soon as you'd like it.
  18. Soros thought the dollar would fall last year and lost a fortune.
  19. I think we're in the middle of a "soft landing" (so far). I suspect that the course of events and the outcome will only become obvious in retrospect.
  20. Yep this is him. Lyndon LaRouche is widely seen in the US as a (very?) right-wing/ libertarian fantasist. I wouldnt trust anything that comes from this guy.
  21. Ok this is up for discussion - The current HPI is an artificial construct and a direct tool of NewLabour policy. By creating rampant HPI the government has encouraged speculation in the BTL market. Creating this speculation led directly to an increase in the number of properties to let and a modest decline in the rents captured (due to increased competition). What this, in effect, describes is the government pushing responsibility for social housing onto the market. Many of the people renting in the private sector were/are candidates for social housing - now they rent from the private sector (with some government assistance). The gov has therefore avoided the capital cost of building and maintaining large swathes of housing, saving themselves millions and having thousands housed at the expense of private capital. The banks and the private investor take all the risk. A very British Coup indeed.
  22. ...and welcome to HPC themarbleman. Best advice I can give? Do a lot of research. Take advice from people you trust (dont include bank managers, estate agents or other Vested Interests). At first glance, I would suggest that your plan for buying is a bit complicated. It seems to depend on others (renting rooms) for its success. If im reading you correctly, you also need the assistance of a friend and you dont have any deposit. Some questions you should ask yourself - If your plan to rent rooms failed could you afford the mortgage? What arrangements have you made with your co-purchaser in the event that one of you wants to sell? Can you manage to pay a mortgage and make the repayments on the deposit loan at the same time? Have you priced in the costs of surveys, solicitors, estate agents, repairs, moving? Above all though, be sure that when you make a decision, its your decision. Best of luck with whatever you decide to do.
  23. Someone, somewhere else, pointed out that the insurance companies are in trouble - not making huge profits. Read between the lines. This will likely be done on a PFI basis with large insurance companies having access to the data. This will allow them to target their premiums more effectively (i.e profitably). The end aim of all this is road pricing and insurance-as-you-drive. Half of you are probably mules for this project already. Only you want it, you pay extra for it and you call it "Sat-Nav".
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