pablopatito

Many thanks your advice. I'd never blame an EA, I just seek to understand him . I don't know what kind of seller we are! We need to move house by January 2009 in order to register our son at a good Primary school. In a perfect world we wouldn't move until January, as we really like where we are now, and my wife is giving birth to another child next month. So on the one hand we're not in any rush, on the other hand hanging out on housepricecrash every day makes me lie awake at night thinking "Sell! Sell! Sell! Get off the ladder! Quick! Run for the hills!!"

I'm not looking for any scapegoats, I'm seeking an understanding of the possible tactics and mentalitiy of estate agents in order to interpet the advice they are currently giving me. I can do as much research as possible, but only estate agents can tell me what offers they have received this year, how many people have looked round houses they are selling, and the value of offers that have been accepted this year. Only they can really know what the market is currently doing.

I don't know how Estate Agents work. But is it possible that EAs are trying to pursuade their clients to lower prices when, if the seller held his nerve, he would get his higher price (albeit in a few months time)? Does an EA think "well, this house could sell for £190k in March, or £200k in May, but I might be redundant in May, so better to aim for a quick sale to help my company's cashflow, and to keep me in a job." Is that how it could work? We're about to put our house on the market and have had very differing valuations, so are not sure what to do. We're planning on renting for 6 to 12 months before buying again. What I don't want to do is sell our house for £190k after taking expert advice from an EA, only for in the summer him to think, "great, we've made a few sales, cashflow crisis avoided, I'm still in a job, lets get those prices back up to £200k again." - leaving me with a 10k loss when I want to get back on the ownership ladder. Is that how it could work?

I can still buy a can of lager from Tescos for 22p (the price hasn't gone up in years). So if S&N are really blaming an increase on the "soaring cost of food production" they must be talking crap.

As is always the case, the article seems to treat asking prices and sale prices as being much the same thing - I think causing general confusion amongst your average punter as to exactly what is happening. I don't see why solicitors can't be forced to tell the land registry sale prices immediately, and why the land registry can't publish these figures straight away. The delay means everyone is using Rightmove's asking price index as an accurate indication of the current market, when its really just a list of numbers created by estate agents by holding their fingers in the air. <end rant>

"it is a pretty bomb proof place to buy" Without wishing to be a pedant, something is either bomb proof or it isn't. So I guess Oxford isn't bomb proof.

I'm not sure. I think they've just changed it for selective schools (the boys' and girls' grammar schools). Previously, the boys grammar used distance from the school as a tie-breaker between two otherwise identical boys, and I think this has been ruled unfair on the grounds that everyone should have an equal chance of getting into a single-sex school if they desire single-sex education. I don't think it applies to normal schools (yet).

If you want to know the difference between Hunsbury and Wootton then you need to read the Ofsted reports of Mereway school and Caroline Chrisholm school. Of course using schools to determine house prices is a risky business because the LEA can change admission criteria whenever they fancy.

What I find really interesting to watch during this slowdown/crash is the relationship between the prices of the three main types of property: new builds, flats and period houses. I lived in Hong Kong for a while where property was always described by the cost per square foot, and applied the principle when I came home and bought a house here - the cost per sq ft of my house was relatively low. Compare these properties, all on with the same agent and all within a few hundred yards of each other: A 2 bed flat for £135k http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-185...=3&tr_t=buy Or a 3 bed Victorian terrace for £130k http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-181...=3&tr_t=buy A 2 bed new build house for £147k http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-191...=2&tr_t=buy Or a 3 bed 1930s house for £150k http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-188...=2&tr_t=buy The new build house and new build flat are really, really tiny (can a 9'3 x 7'5 bedroom really be described as a "double bedroom"?). I just don't understand why they cost the same as much more substantial properties in the SAME area. They are literally a few hundred yards apart. I'll be interested to see how the relative prices change (assuming they do).

I read the Property section of the Chronicle last night. I didn't see any 'reduced' property adverts, I thought I would. There was an "article" by the Bond chap (I forget his first name) of O'Riordon Bond EAs. I say article, it was an advert really. However, he said something along the lines of "the market is ok, providing vendors are realistic about their prices". I read this to mean prices have definately fallen in Northampton and people had just better accept that. I thought it a bit strange because I get the impression that O'Riordon Bond market houses at slightly higher prices than most of the other big agents round here, not lower prices. I think I'm going to accept that my house has dropped by 3% to 5% since last summer and sell it fairly quickly (if I can), with the view that it can only drop by more if I wait around. But my gut feeling is that now prices have dropped by 5% then they'll stay static for the rest of the year (or at least until late Autumn when perhaps they'll have an another big fall). EDIT: I've just read the first post of this thread where Mr Bond is quoted in December as saying: "Over the next six to 12 months house price growth will slow down to about inflation". He certainly didn't mention "growth" in last night's paper.

Intersting article in the Sunday Times yesterday: "certain areas in Britain are safe investments (well, as safe as any investment can be), almost regardless of when or, in most cases, what you buy." http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life...icle3327954.ece Milton Keynes is 4th. "Prices, at an average of £239,834, are reasonable: a two-bed flat with a private roof terrace within walking distance of the station costs between £200,000 and £300,000." I still can't get used to the idea that £300 grand for a two-bed flat in Milton Keynes is reasonable when less than ten years ago my wife and I were looking at one-bed flats in the centre of London for a third of that price. Anyway, if true, it would imply that Northampton is fairly safe as well - as much as what they write about MK also holds true of Northampton (albeit to a lesser extent): rising population, new town, commutable to Euston, access to countryside, good transport links. Personally, I'd have thought that if train prices rise by 10%, and London property falls by 30%, many commuters will consider moving to London from MK, rather than vice-versa as the article suggests. Of course the article is full of quotes from Estate Agents, and not a single quote from an economist - so you pays your money and takes your chances with an article like that.

Yes, another big reason we're going to rent is to keep the chain as small as possible. Now's no time to worry about a long chain! Looking at Property Snake, I get the feeling most of the price drops are either new builds, novelty houses, flats or blatently overpriced houses. I've yet to find many drops for what I'd call the bedrock of Northampton housing: 3 bed Victorian terraces and 3 bed inter-war semis. Once they start crashing I'll worry. Although its seems to be quite difficult to figure out which houses Property Snake is referring to - it lacks detail. Unless I'm not using it correctly.

Still, falling asking prices isn't the same thing as falling prices. When we were bought our house four years ago, we looked round loads of houses that were clearly overpriced. Many of these dropped prices after a month or two of no interest. I suppose the difference is, in a rising market, the market will eventually catch up with your asking price and you'll make a sale, whereas in a static market it won't. What I don't know, with regards to selling my own house, is whether estate agents might put pressure on vendors to lower the price and make a sale purely for the sake of helping their cashflow. If people hold their nerve and wait for spring, maybe the market will pick up a bit? What I don't want to do is accept a 5% drop in the value of my house, only for it to rise by 3% in the summer whilst I'm in rented accomodation. At the end of year, it will be reported that house prices have dropped by 2% (5 minus 3), but I'll have actually sold at the bottom of the market, rather than near the top. I'll be five grand out of pocket compared with waiting until the summer to sell.

115k was the guide price. How much did it actually go for at auction? More presumably.

Wootton and Hardingstone have four or five very good Primary Schools, and that is the only reason we're moving. If we don't, our son will almost certainly be made to go to his local Primary next year, of which Ofsted recently said "In accordance with legislation, HMCI is of the opinion that this school requires special measures because it is failing to give its pupils an acceptable standard of education and the persons responsible for leading, managing or governing the school are not demonstrating the capacity to secure the necessary improvement in the school." So we'll pay around forty grand to give him a good chance of a good education (though he's not guaranteed to get into any of the local schools). So much for our free and fair education system. If we lived in a terrace in Abington, we'd almost certainly stay there, although the traffic does my head in. Thanks for the Firefox link, Housedog. Looks good! If anyone could recommend a good estate agent to sell our house, I'd appreciate it. Or a bad one to avoid!

As far as Wootton is concerned, the new estates do look stupidly overpriced. But there was a 1950s semi that went last year for around 220k. I wish we'd bought it now. Now I know people like new houses, and they like detached houses, but why would you pay an extra 30 grand to live somewhere that is tiny, has barely any garden to speak of, space for only one car, and your detached neighbours are built 6 inches away from yours? Correct value or not, I just couldn't bring myself to part with a quarter of a million pounds for a shoebox. We are about to try and sell our 3 bedroom 1930s detached house in Delapre in order to buy a more expensive semi in Hardinstone. Good idea? Or should we rent for a while? My view is that there will be a big correction in new builds and flats in Northampton, but old semis will remain reasonably static. Round our way, older houses have barely risen above inflation over the last 4 years, whereas new builds and flats have gone up by considerably more - I think its that inbalance that will need correcting. It annoys me when the BBC says "house prices will fall by 35%". No they won't. Some houses will fall by considerably more that 35%, and some will fall by considerably less. But I'm new to all this. Any advice would be most appreciated.

I reckon there won't be a crash in Northampton, here's why: On Saturday we went to look round a house in Wootton Fields, listed with O'Riordan Bond. We waited outside in the freezing cold for 15 minutes for the agent to turn up but she never did. So we phoned her office: "Oh, I'm sorry Mr M, I'm not sure where she is, I'll give her a call on her mobile and call you back". We waited outside for another ten minutes, getting colder and colder, and was finally told "We've had a computer crash and lost all our appointments. I've been having to phone viewers up ALL morning. She can't be with you for at least another hour. Sorry". Its odd that she never mentioned this when I first called her. And its odd that she spent all morning phoning viewers yet somehow forgot to phone us. But the thing is, they've never phoned me back to make another appointment. So its obviously a sellers market! Here I am with 250 grand burning a hole in my pocket and and can't even get anyone interested in taking it. I'm sure when O'Riordan Bond explained to the vendor that they left a buyer standing outside their front door in freezing weather for half an hour before telling them they'd have to wait for another hour if they want to actually go inside, the vendor told them not to bother trying to get us back as they've had sooo much interest already?