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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Steppenpig

  1. Nothing on rightmove or zoopla, but presumably this one. https://auctionhouselondon.co.uk/lot/?lotID=33062 Streetview Looks hideous but spin round and all the houses on the other side of the street have similar lofts. Edit. Streetview is a pain to copy paste. That's actually the wrong side of the street, you need to spin round to see no 61.
  2. For rent at 3,467 or sale ar 1,195,000 That's 3.48% return. Normal for London I guess.
  3. On a simple affordability argument it probably makes sense (although not sure what salaries are like these days) but doesn't account for the financial risk of borrowing 20 times salary in 2019 compared to 3 times salary in 1996.
  4. Yeah, I shouldn't have said "cheap" but still interesting that prices do seem to be coming down., and setting a price below the neighbours results in going stc in a few day, and/or something dodgy going on with the last two I mentioned and I want to keep an eye on them. At the moment, they look like they're still 50% overvalued, which must be about 10 years' salary for the sort of people who buy there. ie overspending by about a quarter of their working life's earnings. If it is a trend, they might be reasonable value in 10 or 20 years
  5. Another unexpectedly cheap one, gone under offer in a few days. 975k. No loft extension, but sure it would have been at leat 100k more a couple of years ago. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-78759140.html
  6. Owns all 15 houses in Grice Close, CT18 7QN. One to keep an eye on. Strangely, despite the Wilsons apparently owning them all, and apparently evicting tenants and putting their estate up for sale, there are two available for rent. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/find.html?locationIdentifier=POSTCODE^3630412&includeLetAgreed=false - caveat, it doesn't actually claim that this specific estate will be disposed off, and some are apparently in the name of wife and daughter, so possibly leaving those to the inheritance
  7. I hate to be a pessimist, but I dont understand how he cant have made money. Assuming the income and expenses roughly balanced, there must be about 50 mn of capital gains realised or unrealised. (Say very roughly, 1000 houses, currently worth 200k, doubled in value since 2000. but say acquired uniformly over period, so only half that achieved in gains, comes to 50mn. Of course, he does seem particularly stupid, so he might hae screwed up the admin and finacing to such an extent that it would have an impact)
  8. It would have been worse up to 2007 and crashed harder afterwards. But I'd still say the euro is fundamentally flawed, while our leaders are merely stupid. We might get lucky next BoE governer, but the eurozone will be permanently handicapped.
  9. Nice post. But there are still reasons to support brexit even if there being no immediate policy or economic benefits. Any remaining hope is very faint. The fact that absolutely nothing has been done to address the internal problems in the 2 years since the referendum does not augur well.
  10. It does seem to be noted in the details that it was previously laid out as 2 beds. Maybe the kitchen was used as a bedroom. According to zoopla was also up for sale in 2011 for 985k. https://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/flat-4/30-hyde-park-gardens/london/w2-2nd/15430613
  11. Cherry picking by the EU of a third country. They get to continue their manufacturing exports to us, our service exports are restricted, we give up the right to have any say in future direction, and we pay 40 bn for the privilege. Oh yeah, in return, we get to restrict freedom of movement. I can only think the reason they rejected it was they assumed it was a trap.
  12. "The" truth might be a bit strong, but it seems plausible that the reason they are so intransigent is because they know the slightest crack and they will fall apart. I can't think of any reason they couldn't accepted the chequers deal. it was a gift to the EU.
  13. From today's FAZ. Link to full translated text in reddit, which is where I read it
  14. The normal valuation of assets is the income they earn discounted at the effective interest rate. When that rate goes to zero, the model breaks down, as the asset value goes to infinity. At that point, the valuation depends on whether or not you believe you can sell it on to another buyer at a higher price, ie market psychology. There is a slight sheen you can give to the mathematical/economic formula by adding a "risk premium" to your interest rate. This is your estimate of the risk of total loss of capital from an economic crash, insolvency, natural disaster etc - and what stops the actual value going to infinity. But in reality, it just becomes a guesstimate. Thus, although falling interest rates mean that income from holding the asset will exceed returns from holding other interest bearing assets, the longer the asset is held, the more likely prices will revert to mean, the greater the risk of loss of capital. So while the low interest rates stop the asset prices crashing, they comtinue to trend towards their long term value. (it's been a while since I thought it through . might have forgotten stuff)
  15. Your ideas appear to be listened to by people in high places. I'll leave it with you.
  16. It seems it's the EU and/or Ireland that are insisting on the necessity of NI having an open border with the Republic. So why don't we counter propose that they have "the backstop" on their side of the border if they find it necessary? All their adjoining counties become free trade zones, with the hard border between them and the rest of the Republic.
  17. Can we start separate threads to explore the feasibilty, advantages and disadvantages of all options independently? Trying to juggle endless assumptions and possibilities just keeps going round in circles.
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