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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by abharrisson

  1. or 3.75 for a dual income household.... why would one person want or need a 3 bed house after all... thats just greedy.
  2. Interessting question, house prices have been massive news along with all the other economic gloom and doom recently, but over the last week or so I've noticed a significant drop off. With various indices announcing every week or so we are bound to see this drop off. I think the Nationwide info will get mention but I suspect unless its a slow news day it'll be wider economic news thats headline not house prices to the degree they have been... media fatigue.
  3. You need to understand financial markets a bit better... wheres theres potential to make a buck they'll find a way.
  4. As I live in the middle of the sticks cutting back is easy: - Two woodburners now installed, one with a back boiler... reduces oil usage massively. - New windgenerator coming... I've even found a mad company who will pay me per KW itrs rated at even though its plugged into the grid... don't ask. - Big vegatable garden. - "giving" up smoking. And the most inventive is .... feeding the dog on road kill.
  5. What isn't covered in this article though is that banks are absolutely raking it in currently, they have played this just right (if I imply they are acting as a cartel I don't mean to ... honest).... liquidity cash from the treasury, extended guarantees for deposits (to keep the rolling in), legislation to create new products, a light touch of regulation..... and now the best part... all their competitors have fled or been pushed out, they can control the price again and rake it in and at the same time be seen to be playing the white man in terms of not taking on new risk levels. This will continue for a while but I dispute its the new norm. Its the new norm for a while, but when prices hit bottom and the only way looks like being up, the whole sorry saga will start again I suspect, lending rules will relax, competition for mortgage business will re-emerge and away we go again.
  6. As of today I am completely out of the stock market holding cash... I simply don't have the time or the knowledge to play gold/FX/commodities etc, and am not brave enough to stick around..... personally I think some of the banks have sufferred badly and in a little while once the capital raising is out of the way, some of them may well be worth a punt (LTSB would be my favoured one)..... so being a simple soul I think I'll collect the interest for a few months and wait... maybe until October to get back in. I have enough "invested" in housing to give me sleepless nights as it is.
  7. Probably loads, and loads have an IO mortgage they will never pay off and so they will have to sell when their income drops in retirement. Personally I do not think mandating a repayment mortgage from a gov perspective would help.. the nanny state has surely gone far enough, they can't manage themselves why should they manage us. besides plenty of totally reasonable people choose to run IO mortgages without structured repayment vehicles in place for totally acceptable reasons.
  8. I would agree, although at least you have the comfort of producing the first post I think I have seen from Eric that is not written in caps (apart from his sign off that is).
  9. And soon to be president of europe .. god help us all
  10. Totally agree... Eric, you really ought to look at the stats, 1996 was pretty much the bottom of the market, prices didn't return to trend until 2002, this site started in 2003 (I think)... so actually above trend prices have only been seen for 5 years... not the twelve you refer to... where on earth did that come from... maybe you have over-ranted recently and as Hilary said "misspoke"... or maybe typing LIAR so often seeped into your wider pysche. Anyone who bought after 2002 bought over trend at the time, and against current trend the 2003 price looks broadly right , by the time prices sink and the trend line rises we might even find the 2004 price was the right level..... having said that of course the market will overcorrect.
  11. Mortgage costs would be relevant, house prices not in terms of inflation....... but as the original poster identified all it needs is for mortgage costs to be included and the bank to be given a new "adjusted" target and you'll suddenly find that the inflation they all fear has gone away. One thing I don't really get is that most of our inflation is in the basics these days.... oil, food etc, other chunks we have little control over eg rising chinese labour costs..... raising the rate will improve sterling value and therefore "reduce" the cost of these things.... but its a very different game to the old days when typically taxes, the rate and wage bargaining were all part of the control mechanisms.... as so many of those items suffering high inflation will be the last to be cut (oil, food etc) I can't see any way of controlling their "price" without rising rates and therefore boosting sterling... unless of course they cook the inflation books with the inclusion of mortgages.
  12. GB will certainly blame it because otherwise theres nowhere else to look but the doors of number 10 and number 11.... interesstingly the guy who's been truly shated in all this is Alistair Darling... he was not (directly) responsible for the last ten years of excess (brown and Blair were) and yet he has to sort out all the mess... northern rock, bank bail outs, 10p rate fiasco etc etc.... I don't actually feel sorry for any of the labour crowd but Darling certainly deserves considerably less criticism than either brown or Bliar... both of whom will defend their actions to the hilt screeming "it was the credit crunch what did us in guv"
  13. Actually I think the dreaded leverage word is why people have tended to sing properties praises.
  14. I wish I had a £20M digging the garden course... then I could give up the day job. I did of course agree with the sentiment that IAP was a fairly dangerous process, but made the point that the real reason IAP casued so much damage was that it was those who bought from the developer without getting a "discount" of pretty much anything that will lose most... and there are very many real OO's and FTB's in there.... IAP buyers overpaid, the others overpaid by an even greater margin.
  15. Timing is everything... might be worth starting up a website called housepriceboom...... that too will be right eventually, and everyone on it will breathe a huge sigh of relief that they saw it first and everyone has finally listened... should take about seven years..... if the stats are anything to go by.
  16. And your problem is what exactly ?... wheres the pm, i'd be fascinated to read your insights such as they are.
  17. I agree, the sensible concencus currently sits at somewhere around 15% over two years with perhaps some minor falls or stagnation over the ensuing couple of years. Personally I can see the stagnation going on for perhaps three years but the falls are in my view unlikely to amount to much more than 15% maybe 20% overall (some secotrs will fare much mcuh worse, others better) with infaltion adding to the total over five years.... we'll then all start again.. so start saving those deposits... you'll still need a lot, and bizarely perhaps more than before because despite the falls lenders will demand higher deposits.
  18. APR's are largely meaningless unfortunately when assessing mortgage costs over a five year term. When a bank says it is a tracker mortgage it is always the BOE rate that is worked out on. Whilst the house price scenario is begining to work in your favour, it is unlikely I would say that the mortgage rate will act similarly, therefore you are either going to have to rely on further falls than the 30%at the far end of your chart, or stomach the higher mortgage costs or of course wait for the next boom and bust to unwind hoping for different news. In my view rental prices will certainly rise further. Whilst clearly you are planning for purchase sensibly, there appear to be plenty of people on here who whine about inflated prices and not being able to get on the "ladder" who actually probably have no deposit saved or any prospect of doing so unless they mend their spending ways, and more expensive "basics" are going to mean the dream slips further away almost regardless of where house prices end up. I bought recently, am more than happy with the price I paid (c. 2005 price so about 16% off peak and asking price), the value may well dip a bit more but as I'm going to be staying there for ten years or so it really makes no difference to me. I have been looking in the property pages recently to see if theres anything else out there, and in fact theres precisely nothing I would like to own thats anywhere near ( I mean £150,000 near) the price I paid .... so for me its a case of I needed a house, with my budget and requirements they were thin on the ground and still are, and I fell very happy to have found the one I bought. Actually with the work we have in train (partially becasue the house needed a bot of re-organisation) I wouldn't be surprised if when it comes up for remortgage time in say three years its not worth pretty much what we paid for it plus the money we are putting in. Although I am not going to be happy I suspect with increasing mortgage costs, but it won't be more than £100/£200 per month so that will be manageable. In other words there are instances where buying at whatever in the cycle makes sense.
  19. I used to run a card business for one of the banks (boo hiss) I should think the answer is pretty straightforward. All Banks have programmes running to prevent fraud on cards. Now normally when you see this happens it is for instance if you have (as I did recently) registered a card with one of the mobile companies and then tried to use twice in the same day... banks systems will highlight this as a potential fraud. In your case however as you were going through "secure" systems , had money in your account and were present at the time I would say its some form of error on their part. personally I would push them to explain why exactly when you had money in the account and keyed your PIN correctly at sainsburys the card was rejected, and why it was again rejected at the cash point ( I understand the PIN was right as you actually saw your balance and therefore they had not blocked info access just withdrawls) ........ it will be interessting to hear what they say. You need to write them a letter in the harshest tone, probably to their chief exec..... if they can give you no valid reason and say that you do not believe there is one ... no pattern change in your spending, sufficient money in the account, PIN keyed correctly, not a problem with sainsburys terminal as also happened at the cashpoint, PIN correctly entered etc.... then say to them that you will be pushing them for compensation and will want to understand that the FULL detail of the problem and that is being fixed . Say to them that should they not both give you a settlement of say £1,000 and confirm the specific details relating to the problem to you within ten days then you will take the matter to the banking ombudsman..... end your letter saying that its instances like this that make people fear the banking system in under threat and that it is not right that a bank which cannot run its IT infrastructure effectively retains a banking licence...... of course you won't get £1,000, or anything like it, but writing a letter like that to the chief exec will elicite a response.... but I suspect they will still not come out and say they have an IT glitch which is probably the case..... incidentally the operators you speak to on the phone can't override the blocks, and often don't know why they are there... its a case of "computer says no ".
  20. Of course IAP did open the world of BTL up to a whole load of people (if you can call it that) and in the process helped accelerate the whole thing, to what degree we will never know.... I suspect its those who bought in the last two to three years who will have done particualarly badly though......... the real issue though is for those who DID not use companies like IAP and bought anyway. Here's how it "worked". Developer X announces yet another new build in a run down area of say leeds..... developer approaches IAP and others, they together put together a package that say knocks 20% off the projected finished flat prices on an off plan basis. IAP then approach their database with say the 50 units they have "secured" and sell to them, the builder may well have 150 or 250 units to sell. Doing it this way he gets all those lovely deposits in early which help underwrite the building costs, he then .... and this is the good bit.... when the properties are complete sells the remaining flats to normal joe bloggs off the street.... instead of offering them a 20% discount he offers them a kettle, or "free" carpets or even a 5% discount (bear in mind IAP got 20% off plan)....... so actually while I am sure many who bought through IAP in the last say three years are going to have a rough time.... once again its actually Joe Bloggs who bought without securing a big enough discount off what I call the "laughing " price who gets stung most.... all becuase he did not have the "inside track"... boum...boum. As developers saw how easy it was using companies like this to find off plan buyers at reasonable "discounts" they commissioned more and more developments and the whole thing spiralled.... and of course more people got sucked in. Incidentally having read some of the junk mail from these types of guys over the years they all looked genuinely dodgy.... ie long letters written like one of those "I'll tell you the secrets of how I made £20m in three hours whilst digging the garden" type schemes which have been around for donkeys years...... I am simply amazed anyone went into it just on that basis. Just bear in mind its those that bought in the new build arena (where IAP operated) who did not get discounts of at least 20% and who did not buy offplan who will be the ones affected the most ( of yes and of course anyone who currently is waiting for their new build to complete... of which there are thousands)
  21. No but heres the new deal, if you buy her debt for 50%, then you take it to the BOE, they will give you 80% in government gilts, then you sell the gilts and presto you will have made 30% of the debt in little to no time...... shouldn't be a problem should it ?...... or is this where it all started, and the American lady is just trying to cut out the middlemen banks.
  22. Personally I don't really care much where house prices go.... however I do worry about the wider economy, mass redundancies etc... and I do know that while the saga will undoubtedly throw out a few juicy morsels of BTL'ers going bust, city boys losing their jobs etc... that the sad fact will be that its going to be the poorest in scociety who feel the pinch of the current economic turmoil most, and next those who scramled onto the ladder borrowing too much, too late in the bubble who will now lose their all. In all of this it's the "innocents" I am concerned for most. House prices are nothing to the effect of the wider economic maelstrom that will hit..... and I'm afraid there'll be loads of "undeserving " people hit.... imagine to put in HPC terms, FTB or STR, carfully saving a deposit/ guarding a deposit, prices go down, their hopes soar, they then lose their job, the savings go and by the time they have saved up enough for the deposit again house prices have cantered away again, leaving them either still without a house in the case of the FTB or in the same house they previously owned in the case of the STR.
  23. I'd agree with that although have found in the past that £1k Psm is never where I get, normally above that level. I can't fault the logic but I would suppose the only thing that drives building costs down at the moment potentially is either chepaer (polish) labour or indeed builders lessening thier profit requirement due to wanting to leep ticking over in lean times. If property prices fall land prices will also fall, there actually may even be "bottom of the market" deals emerging in the land market prior to the main built environment.
  24. Gosh now I do find that strange... no ones willing to actually punt that prices will fall below the current level of the indexes... around 15% over two years I think... surely this is a bet you simply cannot lose after all the data we have seen here... surely its going to go beyond this level.... as soon as the signs that it is going further in actually emerge you will have lost your chance to make money because the index will adjust accordingly... come on surely theres someone out there who is so sure of their point of view that they are willing to stake some cash on there being wider falls than the index currently has locked in... I think about 15% over two years... anyone ?.... I won't be one becasue that I think is pretty fair bet, but loads and loads of people o here and seemingly the vast majority seem to be saying 25/30/40 I even saw a well argued case for 50%. Just as property over the last ten years was a one way bet upwards, surely its a massive one way bet downwards now ... isn't it ?
  25. If they've blown their bonusses rather than saved the bulk of them elsewhere then they are nuts.... but no more nuts say than average joe who with his wife bought at 4 times earnings borrowing 90% in the last two or three years.... they too (whichever industry they work in ) may well see their job gone, they borrowed stupid amounts of money and overpaid for an asset that was clearly in a bubble environment. Not "knowing " is as much a "non" excuse for the banker as for average joe.
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