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abharrisson

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Everything posted by abharrisson

  1. Actually, I didn't CHOOSE any of the examples, I just listed those that I knew about as examples of information. Nor am I making a point about house prices not falling. Nor am I worried (fortunately) Nor am I putting forward a view of optimism. I am simply stating the case that positive information gets shouted down by the VI's here who have so much of their time and dreams invested in a very large house price crash. You have very clearly proved the point once again. Did I say the Abbey news was a precussor to cheaper finance being widely available (no), but it is interessting that they and others chose to cut rates ...... it shows that some mortgage lenders perhaps have a desire to be more competitive and attract what business there is rather than protecting their operations through not being cheapest. Its a small sign, will have no immediate effect but once again is dismissed by you and others. kensington entering the market again in a very small way is also interessting becasue they are reliant on wholesale funds. What else did I mention... oh yes Saudi pumping more... again the small minded dismissed this (of course they never raised it in the first place becasue it doesn't suit their VI HPC script)... did I say it was the precusor to the end of $100 barrels of oil and a resultant positive economic benefit... no... but it is interessting if you look at the manner in which the US sought to intervene and the manner in which the Saudi's and others have reacted. Oh yes what else I did mention... Americas changing stance on japanese rice exports and pakistans export news..... not particularly relevant to the UK, but again interessting when you think how hard governments appear to be working to get some of the inefficiencies out of the system that perhaps are aiding the commoditiy boom. What else ... oh yes reports that AAA housing bonds may be showing signs of moving again, with valuations getting more accurate, some banks reporting they may now be undervalued and reports of minor buying eg in Australia.... again this may be a sign that some of the debt issues may be begining to unwind... its not put forward as signal of the end , but could be importnant nonetheless. etc etc You in your wisdom, have chosen to say, I chose bad examples... As I said I didn't choose them.... I merely listed what I heard of.... you like very many others suffer from the HPC disease of seemingly being willing to dismiss any and all conflicting info and not to seemingly want to enter into anything that has balance..... by balance incidentally it doesn't mean you have to pare back from a stance that says house prices will reduce... of course they will... but balance is useful if you want to have any understanding of how long or deep the reduction might be...... being in denial when positive news does show its head is for the idiots. I don't have a crystal ball... but personally do feel its worth gathering together positive and negative viewpoints and facts when thinking about this or any other situation... its plain you see no merit in doing so.
  2. Problem being you have to find a specific individual in particular circumstances who has a house you want to own... thats potentially the first flaw.... the second is does this person exist... if you saw them today they would have high amounts of equity in their property (for your plan to work) and yet in the next two years they would have to have difficulties.... probably through redundancy/illness leading to arrears and debt building up.... will be difficult to find. And finally of course if they have equity in their home they will probably sell somehow... agent, auction wherever to preserve what they can.... they are simply going to give it away to you...... I should think. Of course all this presupposes you have the cash to buy and don't need a mortgage.... if you needed a mortgage you would possibly struggle.
  3. I also don't get the strength of the FTSE... its back near its peak..... I wonder if this really is a bear market rally, or if the commodity bubble/oil related stocks is what is keeping the thing going rather than anything else. Having said that I suppose if earnings continue to perform then there's no reason for it not to be strong and yield looks OK... so theres certainly some criteria of rits strength. Of course if house price reductions and tight finance do push the UK into recession then things may well change... do stock markets always go down in a recession though??????. If theres a recession here but oil and mining and commodities remain buyant then with the strenght of those in the FTSE it might be a case of recession but stabe ftse. Who knows...
  4. Again points mande above PROVE my point.... I have not said house prices will not fall further, I have not said the things I have mentioned will have a huge effect.... what I have said though and maintain is that people ONLY appear (for the most part) to consider the dark side and in doing so avoid having a balanced view.... look at how the mearest mention of anything vaguely positive gets shouted down by those with a VI in falls (ie HPC posters) and its pretty clear that many are absolutely incapable of having a balanced view and drawing in comment from all sides. They appear to for instance salivate over news that the asking price for a property in one area appears to have dropped (probably from a previously over optimistic level) as a clear sign of their dreams being fulfilled and yet ignore everythign else... in many cases writing some commentators off as VI's simply because they don't agree with what they want. Now I have no issue with some of criticism here about the usual suspects who talk housing up.... but when you see facts reported that may have an impact on the wider economy, or might begin to show signs of being a movement only a fool would ignore them, dismiss them by all means as "too early to say" or "not enough and too late" with a reasoned case but to dismiss things out of hand and show a distinct unwillingless to consider more than point of view is in my view idiotic.
  5. Actually in a lot of cases a price cut won't help becasue there are simply no buyers out there for some properties.
  6. There we go, its those that don't appear to want to have a rounded view and consider all the aspects .. positive and negative who are the real idiots...
  7. There we go this proves my point... actually the oil price did dip towards the end of last week... get your facts straight beofre you call others out..... of course the price of oil has risen and possibly will continue to do so... but the fact that the Saudi's and others agreed to pump is news worthy for obvious reasons, as is Abbeys cut and is bank of irelands cut, as is kensington renentering the market, as is the undershoot in the price of AAA bonds, as is the reacpitisation going on within the banks, as is the news that the treasury will extend its swap beyond £50bn, as is the sale of a tranche of housing bonds in australia last week etc etc etc.... none of this of course says house prices won't fall of course they will... but if there are early signs of some of the pressure on food inflation and oil inflation coming off, and some early signs that some of the banking difficulties may be begining to be resolved... and indeed the indications of at least some easing in mortgage finance... then if you are genuinely interessted in understanding how far and how fast prices will fall then you'd be an idiot to ignore them, dismiss them if you want to but you should at leats consider them... in fact you'd be an idiot not to discuss them... but there we are I think it clearly proves my point... theres little balance.. for understandable reasons, I don't balme those who seem incapable of balance as this may not be the place for it... its those in denial you need to worry about.
  8. Whilst I do think there are going to be house price reductions, I don't share the view of 60% or 50% that many on here (not all) seem to be thinking about. Equally I would share your view that many of the discussions on here are not balanced... I think it comes from a desire from a lot of the posters wanting to be proved right after all the years of predicting it, railing at anyone and anything that appears a little more balanced. having said that as this site tends to attract those who are clearly committed to spotting and sharing any negative information whatsoever.... it stands to reason that the more positive information which could provide a more rounded view doesn't get a look in or gets shouted down rather than considered. If you say something positive ... the result is normally... "you must be an idiot if you don't think prices will fall Etc etc".... in actual fact the point you may have been making might have been simply one of stating that Abbey reduced their rates yesterday and that being an interessting development (not saying for instance that it meant positive news for house prices).... that got shouted down... equally I don't think anyone spotted (apologies if it was discussed and I didn't see it) that kensington for instance had re-entered the mortgage market.... or that saudi has said they'll pump mre oil, or that the rice price fell dramatically at the end of last week after intervention..... all these things tend to be treated as heresy here... but I suppose thats the nature of the beast.... lots of good stuff but at its worst theres very little balance.
  9. The US has made a couple of interessting moves recently... they have unwound their restirctions on japan exporting rice which apparently has freed up 1.5m tonnes... this in turn has led to pakistan opening the door to 1m tonnes export.... rice price apparently fell dramatically as a result... wonder what would happen to cornm prices if the ridiculous ethanol in the US and 4% dictat in europe was stopped..... equally the US has announced it has persuaded Saudi to pump more oil........ in other words there may be some signs out there (thank goodness) that countries are begining to act together to get some sense back into commodities markets.... sure demand rises and so prices rise but its really gone much too far much too fast on the back of speculation and some ridiculous national poicies.... the price of these will rise over time but personally I think if nations can begin to effect those crazy things away from natural demand that is efecting the price then we may see more of a steady rise than the massive rises we have seen of late. Filled my oil tank at home for £500 three months ago... filled it again yesterday ..... £750.... sheet steel has gone up 50% in two months... fertiliser (oil based ) has gone up 50% in three months........ its really crazy stuff.... demand has NOT moved by similar proportions over the same period so the movement must be down to currencies, legislation, and financial speculation/hedging.... hopefully doing something about those will help us all.... although I would say those hoping for a very very deep HPC may think taking the rampant inflation on basic commodities down may not help their cause.
  10. Interessting to see two risk averse economies like switzerland and germany on the list. Also interessting that France is not on the list... interessting unkown about France... they have had BTL for years longer than we have, theres a great deal of second or even third home ownership... But and this is the crucial bit... overdafts are not common, cradit card usage is very very low compared to here and banking is still much more personal than in the UK.... it has stubbornly remained as such despite attempts by credit providers to kick start the credit market over the years there. Even with that background I hear French property is weakening. The UK state is down the tubes financially as is UK personal finance... in France, their banks I think are not as healthy (if you can call it that) as our own, the state has a large debt but at least personal debt levels are lower... they tend not to be anything like the debt junlies we are here.
  11. I suppose there is a strong degree of logic to suggest when people extend rather than move due to market issues, small builders get busier (and pricier) I suppose equally there are some who simply have changed their mind about moving and instead put some time and money into upgrading interiors etc..... I wish it were others becasue I too want to extend and the bill is looking like being £85,000 (for rounghly 60sqm plus fittings etc).... building costs of £800 p/sqm rather than £1000 p/sqm would be a big help... equally though I am worried about driving the price down too far as you then risk finding the worst guy, and getting nasty unbudgeted for surprises or vacanices from site.... I know contracts help, but you cannot enforce a contract in any other place than the court so its kind of self defeating.
  12. The thing that will make this worse I suspect is that these shared equity schemes tend to be new build in nature and often the less desirable units (ones at the back with no view, or odd layouts etc)... so the buyers will have new build premium wrapped up in there somewhere... and will make any fall bigger.... of course if they buy and keep for ten years then they may feel no real pain, it'll all be on paper, but as these tend to be the first step on the ladder I'm not sure this will be the case.
  13. Nothing some of these union guys say amazes me any more.... of course public sector pay will effect inflation... the more annoying bits are those about sharing a piece of the pie.... there is no pie but union leaders don't seem to get this... their employees are employed to do a job simple as that... if they don't like the rates being offerred then they can go off and find something else to do just like everyone else.... of course it rarely enters the debate just how HUGE a benefit most public sector workers get in pension rights... price that in and in my view most of them are massively overpaid, and in any event in anything other than the front line services there are far too many people on the public payroll all thanks to good old gordon.... cut 300,000 civil servants and I doubt they'd be missed, after all about three or four years ago there were probably that many fewer anyway... invest the savings in hospitals, schools, paying of the national debt, tax cuts whatever... it'd be sure to be a better use of state money than paying these guys (I wouldn't really blame those being employed rather those doing the employing)...... I am not sure I have seen much evidence of public sector non front line jobs being hard to fill, nor am I aware that people are leaving in their droves for better paid jobs elsewhere.... don't pay more until its clear that the country will suffer unless vacancies are filled would be my view... there are several hundred thousand to go and probably £bn's to be saved before that becomes anything like being the case.
  14. Very true when the lift reaches the bottom (lord only knows where that will be or when)... it wouldn't surprise me if thousands upon thousands of FTB's who were applauding the crash then find that they still don't have the deposit as the demands are much higher, and their savings have been dented by rising rental costs, and that rates are so much higher that the even if they did find a large deposit theres not much difference between low price and very high rates vs high price and very low rates.... if it still survives they may also find the better deals get snapped up by investors and so they miss the boat (again)..... I am sure this will happen to some who are keen to buy but mistakenly think lower prices will be the the thing that helps them.. bizarrley it they may be in no better a situation.... we'll just have to see how it pans out.
  15. Actually this is not strictly correct... an individual can own for instance the freehold on a building of flats and the leasehold of one or more or all flats in that building. There is no sepcific law against it and some lenders allow it although others don't.
  16. In my view building "affordable" housing is a joke unless it remains as "affordable"..... in other words to do that it has to remain as rental accomodation.......... or council housing in other words.... there seems no point in the government subsidising the building of affordable housing only for the new owner to sell in a couple of years at mainstream prices.... equally to be cheap it needs to be high density and small in terms of sqft.... this is exactly like the new build flats that have gone up.... maybe the route for the government is buy these flats that have been overbuilt and are overpriced when the market hits thebottom and run them as the social housing for the future...... flats that were "sold " for £250k in major cities... will come under the hammer for £100k in a few months which when you look at the red tape costs of setting up a building scheme will probably look cheap vs what the government is planning to buy...
  17. Obviously auctioneers state reserve or more likely estimated prices way below what they think the property will reach to get the auction floor full of people anticipating a possible bargain.... I wonder what the reserve on this was... probbaly nowhere near £220k, you may even find at £300+ it only just crawled over the reserve line..... in other words I have yet to see an auction where investors are bidding where they are overpaying massively for things in a feeding frenzy.... certainly not in this market..... auctions are normally something like 20% off what an agent might have sold it for (or tried to !) but in this case clearly it wasn't an agent type property.
  18. I suppose the flip side to this is that typically what retailers do when they see sales drop is to try where they can and strip costs out to keep their turnover going and keep their business alive.... so they close loss making stores, they put pressure on their supply chain, they look for new sources of product, they clear out old stock aggressively, they stock less etc etc..... so for a while rising raw material prices don't feed through fully, job cuts however do emerge and eventually you run out of road in terms of cost cutting and have to put prices up...... not sure exactly where we are on that cycle.... but if we do go into recession there will be I suspect an attendant rise is job losses and it that crucially in my view that will have the biggest effect on where we see house prices going. if a proper recession comes about it'll be tough times for everyone... house owners or not.... and only those with good jobs and cash at hand will be able to benefit fully from the eventual upswing.
  19. Interessting, thanks for that, looking at some of the GMB figures for yorkshire towns they are higher in terms of average salaries than I expected.... in fact their average for England overall is £31,000 which seems much higher than other sources have quoted..... anyway the upshot is that theres quite a bit of two and three bed housing available at less than 3.5 times multiple in that area... as I said not the best but OK.... certainly not the worst..... do I think becuase at that level it passes some peoples measure of affordability that its the correct level for prices.... no not really... I think prices will continue to fall.... but some of the GMB's stats are quite a bit ahead of others in terms of average wage (maybe they inflate them to help with the next negotiation?)... for those that believe in a correlation between earnings and prices that might indicate that falls will be more slender.
  20. Even student loans I think are off balance sheet.... the question of course is 44% of what..... this government has taken figure massaging to new heights.... education, NHS league tables, golden rules etc etc they have been set up, massaged changed etc.... the masters of spin need their stats, and the stats work however you set them up. My gut feel is the government has put the expenditure tap on fully open and not really cared at all what value we see in return..... I remeber brown saying in one speach about 4 years ago that he'd get rid of say £4bn of cost by cutting out 100,000 jobs in civil service (which he created by the way) a few months later he reported success... but somehow I suspect no one lost their job and the savings never hit the bottom line.
  21. Fascinating, I'm quite tempted to get a selection of these for fun... I wonder if the $1 note issued ten years ago is "worth" the same as the $500m note issued today (er or was it yesterday). I also have noticed bob's new Hitler tache referred to by a previous poster.... he really is a nutter... if it wasn't so sad it would be funny... if you wrote it no one would believe you..... if you want HPI have a look at ZIM, the Uk has made a very poor attempt at it.
  22. Err and your point is... what ... that multiples have risen over time..... thanks..... the current point seems to be about what banks will lend rather than what they have leant.... it is interessitng though that 3.1 ish seems to be the current level when 3.5 appears to be generally available. And 3.5 is on a joint basis... not sure what the basis of the chart is... average joint household or single income... a lot of the historic data fails to factor in the rise in dual income households.
  23. Oh come on... is it news that lenders want to know about your other borrowings..... they ALWAYS have.... if you have debts of £20,000 costing you say £3,000 a year to service then they take £3,000 off your gross salary before applying the calculation..... this really should not come as a surprise to anyone. I don't quite get your point or indeed where you are coming from... do you agree 3.5 joint is a fair assumption of normality or not.... it is generally available , thats after all the issue at hand... not whether 5 is a figure available in anythign other than rare circumstances.... you seem to be making a point about me hyping the point I make about 3.5 being normal... and seem to be saying I have manipulated the data... its not the case as you know I think. Just to add Abbeys LOW figure for joint salary of the average of £41,000 joint (this I think is the avergae hosuehold for mortgage holding families) is over 3.5.... anyone with a normal credit score would get this I think.
  24. Now who's insulting who, as I said lets see if you are man enough/ or woman enough go back through the post sequence and see who got "firm" first... when you have done that come back and apologise....... and do I care what others posters think... not really ... they probably disagree with me which is their right.
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