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abharrisson

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Everything posted by abharrisson

  1. Fine as a set of charts but somwhat simplistic..... as they show little correlation to demand... does the saudi chart imply they couldn't pump more... no... do the "other supplier" charts show the dropping levels of investment.. no.... does the findings chart show invetment and effort vs finds .. no........ I am not trying to make a case that theres plenty of oil and everythings fine into the future I just don't see that the charts help the debate at all... supply and demand is currently balanced... if "alternatives" are not found or usage curbed then of course the price will rise as demand will rapidly outstrip supply but for the moment the situation is balanced and stripping out the currency issues the price has cantered away from fundemantals...... I do believe its a bubble and it will burst... in the same way that a volte face on Bio-fuels and an investment in the russian cornfields will do the same for food prices...... for the moment..... inevitably of course though we can't grow demand forever... but we are a huge way away form the armeggedon loads of people seem to think we are..... oil price bubble bursting, pressure off food prices , inflation reducing and suddenly things are looking a lot rosier... it'll happen the question of course is when... I suspect post September .
  2. I'm glad you agree with me... there is an oil bubble currently... although longer term rises should be expected.... of course the nature of bubbles in different areas are different... oil bubbles form quickly and deflate quickly compared to housing bubbles... thats the nature of the individual markets.... but I stand by the fact that claiming that there is no oil bubble now is as ridiculous as claiming that there was no housing bubble last year... as you're now going short apparently you agree.
  3. £370 after rent and childcare...... I really don't know where these stats come from... if exclude housing and childcare costs I live a really good life on less than that and I include my wife and two kids our basic living costs nothing like that, if thats the pverty line then we are well below it and happy
  4. I'd agree... they have been hopelessly out in all their predictions so far........ no real skill there clearly.... I really don't know why people bother listening to these market "analysts" they have proved to be even worse than VI's.... some of whose predictions have actually been much more accurate over the last five years.... sad but true.
  5. I don't reckon the real drop is going to go beyond 25%... unless its in the cancer swathe of the north or new build flats.... we could see a larger "average" price drop depending on how low those two areas take us in addition to the other BTL winddowns........ I am I must say not a huge fan of average numbers as they include so many different things that are irrelevant to nay given house in any given area... good for headlines but not much use when looking at actual individual house prices... in my area.. east coast of england I would say family homes won't fall beyind the 25% area in real terms( my reasoning is despite the supposed gains since 05, they haven't gone up much since then, demand is pretty steady, employment is pretty steady and there are large building restrictions etc etc .. theres plenty to support it, and not as much froth on the prices as there is in other areas)
  6. I certainly don't agree.. based on all the numbers I have seen supply balances demand with no shortfall. This would tend to be supported by the fact that we don't hear of shortages or people struggling to get hold of the black stuff when they need... sure there are processing issues but not in terms of actual oil supply. So three years ago demand equalled supply... now demand equals supply but the price (partially explained by the dollar granted) has entirely drifted from the realities of supply and demand.... that (like it or not) makes it a bubble and as we know all bubbles eventually burst... its miles away from being peak oil if for no other reason than supply I expect will exceed demand over the coming months thereby proving the point... equally longer term the bubble price has I believe kicked in a number of changes which will mean the spectre of peak oil is years away... its a bubble but some don't get it, just like some were in denial on house prices.
  7. What I'd like to see is what the house price stats look like when properly balanced to take the new build flat element out of the mix.... I still believe whatever the final number "nationally" it will be heavilly skewed by region and by type with new build flats in city centres leading the way with massive falls and hard on its heels will be those communities with large propertions of adverse credit (likely to go into finncial meltdown and get repossessed ) residents (this is typically the called the cancer belt stretching in a wide swathe north west to north east). These figures don't perhaps paint the full picture as its only one development but it wouldn't surprise me if 50% ended up being the overall number for flats built since say 2004/2005..... with some of the cancer towns perhaps going down a similar amount.
  8. No protection for anyone other than Banks...... I think when some people look back on this period they'll wonder what the stink about house prices was all about.... the problem for most will be that their pensions are once again in the hole (getting bigger) and likely to stay that way with many being forced also to take an unplanned mid-career break.... for many the effects of these sorts of things will be much worse than the yo-yoing of house prices. Many pension funds will have been stung by the rapid fall of Barratt as it was a FTSE 100 company and has gone from being worth Billions to being worth pennies... the same is true of many other shares, housebuilders included... banks have dropped 40-50%... retailers will do the same.... gold has dipped... and (perhaps I am the only one) but many I suspect will be get caught out by the double wammy of exposure to a commoditiy bubble through futures and exposure to Oil, farming related and mining shares.... when the bubble goes then that double exposure will really do for some funds. I took it all out when the market had its first dead cat bounce back to 6200.... so while I'll lose in the housing hopefully I won't be hit twice by the stock and commodity falls.... those with a pension however have no say... juts pray your trustees have done the right thing.... otherwise... almost unnoticed .... it'll sow the seeds for a very bleak retirement.
  9. Whilst there is some merit in the argument that commodity supply restrictions and demand growth means that prices for a number of commodities will be on an upward curve longer term I'm afraid that anyone who thinks that there is no specualtive driven commodity bubble are in a similar boat to those who were for instance claiming that there was no speculative and credit driven house price bubble.... of course one can trot out any number of scaremonger stories about starving people rapcious demand levels etc but these simplistic arguments tend to be holed below the waterline when you ask some simple questions.... what was demand three years ago... what were production levels at... what are demand levels like now... what are production levels at... now compare the prices... and equally look at that favoured tool of those on HPC the trend analysis... look at demand gorwth and production growth over the last say twenty years and look at price growth... you'll see a clear separtion in the chart now.... this indicates a bubble driven by the massive growth in ndex speculation..... if you don't believe there is a bubble in commodities driven by specualtion to quite a large degree (albeit with some contributing factors from elsewhere ) and if you only see prices going one way then you are in as much of a state of denial as those who were arguing 18 months ago that house prices could only go one way.
  10. great idea although if you listen to some of the predictions on here by the time they have sold the 40,000 tickets the property may have sunk below the £25 level.
  11. I haven't read the full thing but saw the mention of Morris and read they insisted they used their solicitor (which I'll bet was Fox Hayes)...... in fact I'll bet this all about Morris offering some kind of incentive hidden from the lender by way of atame solicitor and two contracts one for the sale and one for the "benefit" and I'll bet they now feel they paid over the odds for it. Loads of people in this situation.. they are mostly to balme themselves.... and Morris in equal part.. a small piece of research would have revealed that many lenders (eg CHl) stopped dealing with Morris years ago.. and horror stories about them were everywhere...... but the customer equally didn't inform the lender of the discount or the valuer I suspect so if they don't give the full picture they can't be blameless. And yes its all illegal... Morris designed a system to get round the "issues" and customers in their greed went along with it when a small pause for breath and a little research would have been the thing to do. Some people of bought property form them and "lost" literally £90k plus (I say "lost" becasue the properties weren't worth that to start with)
  12. This is hysterical... here we are on the HPC site... amongst all those slavouring for bad news on house prices .... the news comes out... its not what they want to hear (becasue some clearly don't understand what the land registry data is all about) and cry foul... others chip in with illogical reasons to debunk the land reg data..... it so amusing... if it wasn't clear already... land registry shows actual sold data (nationwide and halifax don't nor do primelocation and right move)... the data lags the market by at least three months.... its as simple as that... every analysis has its drawbacks, but at least land registry is using actual sold data so don't knock it too much otherwise some of those rambling on here are liable to be truly in the realm of dreamland..... if you want a sort of combined look at prices then have a look at the FT Academetrics stuff which uses a mix and its quite a good model in my view..... if you just want to hear the grimest news then log onto HPC every day for your reassuring fix. Heres a thought though... National data is going to be fairly useless if you want to understand whats going on in your local area, the regional data only helps a little. Crashes like this I don't think will happen at anything like the same speed or depth with every property in every part of the country and it wouldn't surprise me if there don't turn out to be some areas where the falls have been truly massive and others where the falls have been less dramatic.... In the areas where I own property (central london and on the east coast) things still seem to be selling (although at about 50% volume) and asking prices for non-impaired property don't seem to have come down much (although I expect they will post Spetember. There are loads of people who seem to have their houses on the market, but who won't sell if they don't get a top price (which they won't- its wishfull thinking but human nature), I suspect many of these will simply take their houses off the market and stay put (this is particularly happening in London). These guys aren't desperate to sell and won't if the price isn't right, and I suspect agents books have swelled with these dreamers in the last two or three months... point being the fact that agent stock is high is not necessarilly a driver of a prediction that theres loads of people trying to sell but can't as clearly some of them will only sell ofr an unrealsitic price. The really interessting stat is volumes of sales .... these I think will pick up post september when the dreamers remove their properties from the market and those who need to sell price to market.... when that starts we'll start to get a clear idea of just how low the market will go. Personally I don't think anything more than 20% odd in my areas over two years.
  13. i suspect with this low a level in transaction volumes that anyone wanting to sell a house even at a level where a buyer will bite will struggle unless the buyer has nothing to sell. With transaction volumes this low I suspect chains are dead in the water... only those with nothing to sell or who can afford to buy without selling will be able to complete on a transaction.... only some return of confidence will dent that and as we know that takes a considerable amount of time once the tide has turned... I suspect confidence may not return until after the next election or some suitable "break" point.
  14. As far as I know its mainly brokers.... from experience they are pretty carefull with valuations and from my point of view operate firmly in the investor end... what I mean by that is that many investors go for higher yielding property... eg large house cut up into several studios or one bedroomed flats etc... stuff that really isn't going to of any appeal to your average family etc. I feel their book is going to be fairly heavily skewed towards this type of borrower and this type of property rather than FTB landlords buying new build flats or houses. Paragon were in the market fairly early so as a result they also I should think will have a highish proportion of those investors who have been going for ages .... normally builders or architects etc who have built up portfolios over a long time many of which are not massively leveraged. In terms of proof of rental... unless its a property already on their books... Paragon would want to see I suspect rental agreement and bank statements showing rent coming in and if a purchase would have the properties rental value assessed by a valuer rather than acept say an agents letter.
  15. No its pretty easy to get a mortgage... the cost of them has gone up however so you may not like how the monthly costs come up but thats a different matter.
  16. Then again life has moved on since the trend data was established... most of the charts go back to 1951 and between 1950 and 1970 we saw trend growth with no bubbles I think. The bubbles started in 1970 and then we had 1989 and the current one. During the period 1970 to now we have seen growth in dual income households and massive changes to the availability of finance. Even in todays constrained times finance availability is a lot greater than in the 60's or 50's.... I do not have the capability to do charts but I do wonder how it would look if you started the data at 1970, with the argument being that things have changed and therefore the previous 20 years of trend data do not reflect reallities of today.... I really do think that theres a strong argument against those who believe in data that says prices should be based on earnings at 3.5 as this doesn't consider disposable income and it doesn't consider dual incomes and it doesn't consider changes in the multiples lenders will give (even today).... if we ran the trend from 1970 and it showed a tighter correlation to todays price then that I think would be very interessting... things have changed... the historic trend data as it currently sits risks not considering those changes..... my maths may be bad enough that the trend gets worse when looked at from 1970 but so be it, its the principle of looking at it becasue the world has moved on since 1970 that matters....
  17. Well if the extreme bears on here are right and I am wrong I also hope you are right and that top to bottom the crash does happen at breakneck speed... of course the way out of crashes very often mirrors the way in..... so if its 50% and happens inside two years then I suppose to be reasonable starting in year four we can begin to see the return of 10%+ rises again... thats the trouble with booms and busts... larger the boom larger the bust and then it flips again. Personally becasue I disgaree with a lot of the assumptions abouthow far prices are out of kilter currently I don't belive the crash is going to be nearly as bad as the extreme bears predict... whatever happens though it'd be better for everyone if it was all over quickly... apart from those who want to buy possibly becasue sellers won't be forced to the degree they might be and so volumes and therefore choice may be extremely low.
  18. I'd say oil is certainly on the way down... $100 by the end of the year wouldn't be a bad bet. Short term 1/ Usage of petrol down by considerable degrees in major economies. 2/ Chinese and indians cutting fuel subsidies. 3/ Inventories being built up 4/ More supply 5/ High political focus on delivering more supply especially from "hazardous" regions And longer term 1/ greater renewables 2/ new sources 3/ greater usage efficiency 4/ alternative fuel sources 5/ continued erosion of pricing support I reckon $100 before the year is out... longer term price is going to rise but whats happened has massively overdone it
  19. Paragon "play" in a particular secotr of the market not the wider market so they could be right.. equally its pretty difficult to inflate rental figures as lenders either seek the valuers view or ask for proof of rent being paid... its not in their interest to encourage the valuer to be anything other than realistic.... theres probably an explanation for it.. I certainly haven't seen any evidence of rental prices falling and could for instance rasie the price of one I rent out by about £100 per week but am choosing not to as the tenants are pretty good and it doesn't seem worth risking a void for. I would agree though that I certainly haven't seen much evidence of dramatic rises.
  20. No its not a description of an estate agent... its in their job description Show no remorse get the deal done even if you have to be dishonest and manipulative those who succeed are prepared to do and say anything
  21. No use crying about it.. the hPC everyone has been crying out for was always going to casue problems for people.. in the same way that some made bad choices when they bought, others will make bad choices when they sell.... the whole BMV debate is a red herring anyway.... there are very few buyers out there anywhere so valuers opinions are really worth less than they usually are as theres very little data... do you go buy the last price sold in the summer less 10%, do you go by a reduction on commonly asked prices... do you go by the last sold price.... fi they can't sell it in the open market its difficult to tell... so is BMV actually BMV or just another way of saying "thank god I've found a buyer"... as for who is behind BMV purchases it really is very shortsighted to blame them, after all without them the mayhem for the seller might be much much worse. But I don't for one minute think that the shysters who feed on the lower levels of society won't give up the opportunity to design schemes through sale and sale and rent back that are designed to fleece the current owner in hardship. The same could for instance be said for equity release currently which a lot of lenders (and private money too) is getting into... they "value" your house, lend a proportion for a "share"... obviously if the value is overly "conservative" which they an excuse for now... its granny that loses out. My view is the schemes around on the way up (cheating loans, duff valuations , "discounts" etc all served to effectively "defraud" the buyer.. although they wouldn't have seen it )... the shcemes on the way down will hit the desperate rather than the greedy and so will appear even less palatable... on the way up you had the option not to buy... on the way down some will have no option but to sell or release equity however they can get it.
  22. I have little sympathy with govt employees who are not delivering a front line service... and even there some of them are actually on very good deals especially when you look at the hours they work, their pay and pensions and job security............. we're all adults... if the civil servants don't like they can use their skills elsewhere, as long as there are people standing in line to do their jobs I don't see why the rest of us should struggle on just to to make an easy life for them............... if GB rolls over on this then he really should give up now before an election.
  23. Looks like he's done a pretty good job if thats your sort of thing... from the sounds of it its pretty much a complete re-do... builders might charge you something like £400k for that (which includes a margin for them).. what their internal cost might be I don't know......... I suppose the real question is how it stacks up against similar property on sale now and sold recently.
  24. Eric.. you really have lost the plot... firstly you say anyone and everyone who took out a self-cert loan was a liar, then you say that anyone who wasn't asked by the bank to prove their income was a liar, now you say that anyone who took a loan out for more than 3.5 their annual income becasue they were lying to themselves..... your "analysis" on income and outgoings beggars belief.... you had a point (albeit not the whole story) regarding banks lackadasical income checks feeding the upswing but unfortunately you have badly overplayed it.... or maybe you are lying about lying ... who knows what the description of a liar is nowadays.
  25. Personally I would agree with you that the figures won't perhaps be as bad as some predict... somewhere in the region of 15%-25% was where I thought it would end but I suppose a lot depends on how this all evolves. Unlike some I do see some fairly stratospheric falls regionally characterised by those areas with a massive overbuild in new build flats and those areas with a high proportion of adverse credit people. All areas will go down but some will go down in a much more marked way than others. I think there has been a stand off with not many forced sellers currently. If that continues and financing pressures ease (which they will I think over the next say 12 months) then I could see 15% being more likely. If conversely the economy does super badly and we see rising unemployment levels then 25% looks more than possible. The great unkown I suppose is by how much the market will overcorrect.... sometimes the overcorrection is double the difference over trend sometimes it has been less marked. If financing pressures ease a little and the economy stays relatively stable then I'd be surprised if the drop including an overcorrection is north of 25%. I know many of those who argue that a bigger drop will be happening use prices vs average earnings to justify it. I do fundementally disagree with this approach becasue the historic figures do not reflect todays reallity of dual income working and secodly even todays figures could be read anywhichway... for instance most people quote an average salary to use in the trend arguments, when I think it would be better to take household income, others argue we should use household income for those with a mortgage whereas I think we should look at homeowners as a large number are mortgage free and without those it skews the market. Its really not as simple as "it used to be 3.5 times earnings so property prices need to fall by 60% to get back to that therefore there will be a 60% fall etc." I had one debate on a previous thread the end result of which I think was that in a specific area we were looking at there was a pretty strong argument to say prices didn't need to fall much at all to get within various average earnings/income multiples. Perhaps for different reasons from the original poster I would argue that 15% to 25% might be about it.... for those wondering when to buy I would say the bottom is going to be difficult to spot but I would guess at the end of next year and for the year after that should be around the bottom...... And I think if falls are at the more moderate end of the scale then the benefit will be that prices won't accelerate away again rapidly like they did last time.... its quite conceivable that we will have only got to comparable prices to the peak again within six to seven years even if there have been moderate falls.... the type of drop we get will I think be mirrored by the tyoe of rise we get at the other end ... steep and deep , long and shallow etc.
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