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Everything posted by abharrisson

  1. It's a funny thing but I've found there are hoardes of people on this site who swear blind that a real crash is now happening and that we'll see a pretty steep and deep correction but I'll wager only a very very smal proportion would bet on it.. they'll have al sorts of excuses of course ranigning from can't be bothered to don't understand how it works etc but the bottom line I suspect is that when it comes down to it they don't fancy their chances as much as they said they did. of course still more might try and insist that they are already betting by being out of the market but bear in mind they might well have been saying the same for years and not have the depsoit cash anyway... equally whats wrong with improving your position with a sure fire bet... this one can't lose can it... I wonder how many will rise to the challenge and actually put a bet on... I won't becasue I think the spread already represents the gradual change I thhink is the most likely outcome.... those who said I am worng can bet against me if they have the balls
  2. What no caps... you must be losing your touch. Firstly I haven't said I am a BTL mogul or anything like... I own more than one house sure, but only by dint of not selling previous homes... so wrong on the first point... maybe your moniker should be Liar Eric. Secondly I have not made more than a few dodgy morttage applications, in fact I have never made any as I simply haven't needed to. ... Liar Ewric .. sounds about right. Thirdly I am not in the property game ... And whatever your "mate" says certainly in the areas I look prices are certainly not sinking like a ship. Anything more?
  3. In part I was pleased to read this report as it bears out that long shallow decline lasting many years with perhaps no nominal falls but with the weight beinf taken by inflationary adjustments is a distinct possibility..... what however it fails to mention are that without nominal falls it won't feel like a correction as wage inflation will probably lag real inflation for a good while yet. Equally of course whether in the end property feels cheaper will depend very much on where you live and what type of property you live in. As always of course there are the usual HPC sheeple it seems who think this report is signalling a crash... its not... I remain convinced that anyone hoping for a sharp and deep and quick correction or even an overcorrection is whistling in the wind, I also maintain that anyone pinning their hopes of striking a real world deal on the basis of the national stats especially in the south of england is simply dreaming as they have little to relevance. Long and slow remains my view.
  4. Lets hope you were not one of the crazy HPC'ers calling for more redundnacies and cheering every piece of bad news to the rafters simply because they wanted to get a cheaper house... I've never quite worked the bizarre physce of these nutters who seem hell bent on wishing ill on seemingly most of theri fellow man simply so that they can get a cheaper house.... good luck to your dad , hope he works it out.
  5. How anyone can be so convinced that we are definately going down is baffling to me... it's certainly one option, but it's one of many and by no means nailed on... anyone with any brains could tell you that.
  6. I doubt you'll fidn evidence of any manipulation here unless you are well to the crazy end of the conspiracy theorists... why not just reflect on the figures for what they are .. unhelful either way, rather than trying to spin them unconvincingly.
  7. I'd agree from its importance globally however I am cheering for it as it may well be very very helpful to us economically over time... I for one wouldn't say no to the tax revenues coming from 60 billion barrels or even the lower figure of 30 billion barrels.... price of oil averages at say $80 profit on a barrel say 20% ... corp tax say 20%... at a very rough level that might mean something like $96Bn in tax revenue...or something like £60bn..... thats quite an interessting revenue stream even over a long period... might pay for trident as an example over its lifetime.
  8. And yet the figure is still up and while theres certainly not any indication it represents strength there is equally nothing there to refelct weakness or an imminent fall.... but still the VI HPC'ers desperate for the long heralded crash seek to spin it as a portent of doom... whatever it is it certainly isn't that.
  9. I'd entirely agree that there are all sorts of ways a correction can happen....I personally don't believe the "great crash" will happen.... with all the attendant speed and severity and overcorrection most seem to think is a nailed on certainty. In general I would go for inflation doing most of the work over the next five years with only very small nominal adjustments.... it'll look like house prices have corrected but it won't feel like it. While everyone should and I'm sure will make their own minds don't be persuaded that there is only one likely future... there are several and not enough people recognise that fact, they all seem to trance like just trot out the same old charts and assumptions as if its the only likely eventuality... I juts don't believe it and I certainly think other eventualities are more likely.
  10. I think it'd be difficult to enshrine in law... apart from anything else there is a current need to balance the budget but a future need to create surpluses to pay off debt and give us that buffer that means we can spend more through a recession ( as we should have doen this time around but couldn't do enough of becasue of the mess labour got us into). I think your first statment is the most sensible: We need to never allow a loser government to put the nations finances in this mess ever again Unfortunately there's nothing so queer as folk... just look at how many still voted labour even when the evidence of their disastrous goverment was looming so large that david blunket condemnded them....... no one can say they were not warned... blair and brown have ruined this country and we can only hope their ilk never manage to con their way in again.
  11. There are services everyone uses and pays for... bins etc... and services everyone pays for but only a few use.. libraries, community centres, swimming pools.... in my view the fairest thing to do os for the council to charge the COSTS of those services to the people that use them... if they are efficiently run then it should still be cheaper than private supply but not a burden to everyone while still being of benefit ( due to the cut price) to those that do use them... if people complain they don't have the money to pay then it is either a question of personal priorities or a question of getting off their backsides and doing more work/ getting a better job...... its another decent step along the road of getting rid of the "something for nothing " and "i'm entitled" culture that Labour has fostered.
  12. It wouldn't surprise me if that little sequence continues for a while then reverses then re-starts again etc etc for about the next five years... house prices will fall but not nearly as quickly or severely as most people here seem to think they will... some are still saying prices will fall 20/30% THIS year... its pretty much an impossibility.
  13. FP has always been shrill, he's looking pretty long in the tooth now in my view.... as for his predictions of 30% by the end of the year or even by the end of next, I think he's dreaming... he'll be frothing at the mouth for the next five years until we finally hit bottom after a very long very slow decline..... as for the end of this year, we'll be lucky if prices are lower than they were in Jan in my view........ as for 20%/30% it's just not going to happen that quickly in my view....... to get prices more than 20% below the jan start is going to need falls of 3%/4%/5% per month not including inflation adjustments for the remainder of the year.... the last three months have been something like 0.1%/0.3%/0.6%...... and thats only halifax...... its a long way away from being crash speed or anything like.
  14. It's all those public servants snapping them up with theri overly generous pay offs.
  15. Are you and Macca the same person ? becasue you have responded to my post as if it was in response to one of yours... mistake ? or multiple ID busted ? Anyway as you are clearly of the same ilk lets dig in... firstly getting rid of people will not boost profits in companies just becasue you think it reduces costs.... firstly if theres no one to do the work then there will be no revenue and hence no profit to tax. Secondly I think you'll find most private sector companies already shrink according to demand so your own and Macca briliant idea to just shrink further means they won't be able to service the demand that remains.... brilliant, gosh you are clever. Now lets look at the whole boosting profits equals boosting tax revenues. Well firstly redundancy payments tend to knock profits harder than retaining staff, restructuring is a long term game not a short term one effecting profits in one year... maybe that hadn't occurred to you ? Secondly many companies have made such large losses that actaullly they won't be paying any taxes for quite a while as they will offset future profits against past losses... of course you thought of that hadn't you? Now of course your whole seems to be that the private sector will do its bit by cutting jobs thereby boosting profits and tax revenues .... well naturally you had also considerd the benefit claims that would come in from all this extra redundancy.... I expect your clearly brilliant calculations had worked out that the boosted company tax ( which we have already seen wouldn't come through) would more than offset the increased government redundancy costs... but did you also factor in all the lovely tax and NI these employees you want fired ( even though they are productive and profitable) currently pay... no... didn't think so . And finally of course you try and defend that other point of brilliance... that having fired the employees to mythically boost profits then the compnaies could then employ people to reduce the dole queue using the profits created by making people redundant... it really is all quite brilliant. I don't know what part of we cannot afford our public servants isn't understood...but we can't and whats more we cannot afford the overly generous terms they are on... and its not an "entitlement" as some have claimed, it was an employment term which can be changed in much the same way as it was granted...... hearing people talk about entitlement really makes my blood boil, those type of people give decent public servants a bad name.. leaches the lot of them
  16. Mr Cowie has got to take the award as person least likely to be personal finance editor ( or most likely depending on your view of the brightness of jouranlists)... it apears his justification for the theory that prices must fall by 25% in the future is that supply is currently running 23% over demand......... even if you set aside the difficulty of judging demand levels, or the fact that supply and demand are movable feasts within the whole direction of house prices, or that the % of oversupply has no correlation to the % of fall... you are still left with the feeling that he's wrong... after all there are ALWAYS more house for sale than there are buyers at any one time.... and yet when prices rise he should really be out there screaming... why prices will fall by X% ( X being whatever the oversupply figure is any given month). He would have been much better off noting simply that a widening gap between supply and demand indicates a weakness in the market which might lead to further falls... but thats not much of a headline I suppose.
  17. I think you'll find the private sector has already done to death private pension cuts/salary cuts/redundandcies.. it all happened while the public secotr was wondering when the recession would arrive. In any event how on eath would the private sector cutting wages etc help the govt cut its debt. How on earth would firing private sector employees help the govt cut its debt. Why do you think firing employees would boost profits ? who will do the productive work that earns the revenues? Whats the point as you suggest of firing employees one minute to re-employ them the next. Your suggestions are nearly as funny as hearing what Bob Crow would do to reduce the deficit rather than looking for the savings amongst public sector workers. Its thinking like yours which got us into to trouble in the first place.
  18. Well here's a clue.. he's been working for roughly 15 years , and guess what his partner may well have been working for 10- 20 years depending on whether he likes em younger or older.. so thats what 25 years plus of savings... if he hasn't got a deposit together on that basis then he never will. Even if houses fell to £120k for the mythical "average" huse I very much doubt that more than 40% of those currently in renting claiming they would buy if prices were more reallistic would actually have the £30k deposit plus transaction costs plus homemaking costs plus removal costs necessary to start off... there are plenty of dreamers around and they'll use any excuse going to blame others.. the current favourite is the price is too high.
  19. You have to wonder about people like the reader who posted the comment. 1/ Working and on a decent wage and aged 36 with a partner of 8 years and still cannot buy a house...... I wonder where all the money goes and whether they will ever do whats necessary to buy a house... buying a house isn't a right. 2/ Says they can't get married and start a family as they can't buy a house... god help them Plenty of people seem to be so deluded that they think everyone should be able to buy... never going to happen. Plenty of people who can't even save for a deposit reckon they have the financial planning skills to run a house.... saving so you can repaint the windows every five years, redecorate every seven years, replace the boiler every 15 years, fund ever increasing insurance rates , improve the property over time.... for many unfortunately owning a home is just wrong they'd get themsleves in difficulty doing it and rather than being of financila benefit it would become a millstone.
  20. I find the hystercis from HPC sheeple eternally amusing 1/ A £30 house for sale doesn't mean theres mean theres been a house price crash... wait until its sold before getting excited. 2/ Even then some areas have always been much, much cheaper than others and as this is firmly in the cancer swathe it wouldn't surprise me if it hit rock bottom ages ago along with all those needless 2 bed city centre flats and flats above pubs etc. 3/ There has always been ( yes even in 2007) plenty of property that seemed remarkably cheap... it wasn't it was cheap for a reason. 4/ Houses like these will have taken their hit, the next step is a £0 valuation ( they are already at less than rebuild cost).... A £0 valuation could well happen in some of these areas if public service cuts lead to even more unemployment... if theres not enough demand from people with jobs then these houses will have a £zero value. As soon as people beging to reallise that the rest of this process is going to be very very localised the better... currently far too may focus on the unreliable national stats ... whereas the real story is closer to home and involves houses that any individual poster might actually want to buy.... if the house you want to buy has dropped by 30% then theres your HPC, if someone elses drops by 30% then you own't have experienced house price crash... when we are done many will wonder where the crash went.... answer loads of property you never would have wanted lost nearly all its value... and for everything else the drop would have been somewhere around 5% with +7%/ -15% being the range within that overall figure.
  21. Its useful to hear positive views as it helps to counteract the equally luicrous stream of negative views emerging from others. I would agree with your view that we need to wait to see how this evolves.. wehter its ninety days or ninety weeks or ninety months though remains to be seen. I remain convinced that what we are seeing are after shocks and that they'll be dealt with and we move on, the markets will continue to overeact as they always seem to. I remain convinced we are in a period where any gains will be sold down and that we will continue to have very very weak growth and low interest rates and that as a result we will have a housing market which continues its correction through a very very slow deflation of the remaining bubble from here on in.
  22. I suspect we'll find that the law will be changed, and that civil service pay offs will drop as a result ( in fact I wish the whole of the public secotr got what is due which is merely the statutory minimum... hwy should they get more, theres simply no justification for it). Those in the public secotr who say strikes will get a result should remember that: 1/ They certainly won't have the general public behind them. 2/ Striking will only serve to shine an unewelcome light on the whole public service over employment/over payment debate.... this will lead to further public anger and possibly more cuts. 3/ Striking where it means bringing in private contractors to bridge the gap will only mean the cuts have to go depper and more jobs will have to go. 4/ Theres no way whatsoever that the strikers will win becasue massive cuts in public servants wage bills need to happen, its the only route forwards. 5/ Most public service workers will be played with headlines predicting far greater cuts than those that are eventually released, the cuts will be dealt with as sensitively as possible and in the end that will take quite a large element of the anger with public service away. I can tell you now that massive cuts in public secotr pay and conditions will be made becasue they have to be made and no amount of belating or moaning will make any positive diffierence... strikes will fail and in any event will be counterproductive.
  23. The answer is the EU, and their process of subsidies etc also keeps land costs high and therefore effects farm borroings and therefore effects farm profitability etc etc....... I personally yearn for a farming industry without subsides as the EU ones reputedly cost all of us £1,000 per household... but lets not ignore that very many other countries also use them so its not something we can simply ditch in isolation ( even though I'd like to see the back of them)
  24. The way this seems to work to me is that we all get taxed more which leads to a stronger pound ( amongst other influencing factors) as a result we should see a reduction in cost of living ( oil and imports get cheaper) but inevitably it doesn't.... I am sure that now we are all "used" to paying over £1 per litre that the petrol monopoly boys will be quite content for it to never back down below that level regardless of how cheap oil gets.... I wonder what the price at the pump was a few years when oil was last at this level and the pound was this strong vs the dollar... I know tax comes inot it, but factoring recent rises out I bet theres no comparisson today which shows the petrol / diesel market just doesn't work.
  25. Europe isn't bankrupt, never will be this is just pure hysteria...... sure there are problems and there won't be any quick fixes but anyone who thinks this is all anything more than an aftershock is deluded. I don't mean to belittle the problems but they are nothing like the scale of what we saw in in 2008.
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