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gone west

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Everything posted by gone west

  1. http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/2987 He's beginiing to sound like a goldbug! Welcome aboard, Rich Dad!
  2. Look in the pinned section of this forum. A whole thread on it.
  3. and if we see inflation of 5 or 10% in that 15 years? Your 6% yield begins to look anemic at best.
  4. While admirable, do you not think it risky to put all the cash into one asset? There is also the potential for rental voids and decreases and capital depreciation at some point. What if inflation outpaces the rental increases? What is blue chip these days anyways? Corus? GM? Ford? Oh, I know, how about a nice healthy airline! The amount of income you can withdraw indefinitely from a portfolio is called the safe withdrawal rate. It is somewhere around 4%. This will provide a steady income and your assets are fairly safe even through the roughest economic waters. see here. There are many variations on the theme and a good CFP should advise you of several options. But really, why are you coming to HPC for advice?
  5. Indeed. Pressure from unwinding of the yen carry trade will be short lived. Once unwound, the stronger forces of resource scarcity and Asian growth will return. and on its way to 30...
  6. I have never made any claims that we are heading to an apocalypse. You may have meant some other (newer) member whose handle is suspiciously close to mine. I have always said that gold is a prudent holding (5 to 10%) in a portfolio of assets. Right now, I am inclined to include sludge silver and put the allocations at 20% for all PMs, simply due to the tense world situations and the profligate Fed. I also firmly believe we are in a secular commodity bull market so all PMs should do well compared to cash over the next few years. I hold very little physical gold, as I see doomsday a fair ways off for now. JMHO.
  7. http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/2844
  8. I think the oil bourse is also a bit of a non issue. Russia already sells oil to the EU in euros. Norway is thinking of setting one up in euros (along with a fish bourse ). FX markets are so smooth and transparent, that I don't think it will have much of an impact. Peak oil will hurt the US far more. The nuclear issue is a bit more disturbing. Iran is probably developing a weapon. Its auld enemy, Isreal, has them. Its neighbour, Pakistan, has them. It would be strategic stupidity not to develop one of your own. They are building a facility to house 50,000 centrifuges. Not really required for nuclear power unless you want a few dozen power plants. The other issue is Iraq. If civil war breaks out in Iraq, what will Iran do? Will they aid the Shia's? Will they make a land grab? At the moment, the ME is a very volatile place, and it is only going to get worse.
  9. http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.asp?...w&page=dustbowl Parallels to the 1930s are just becoming too real!
  10. Gold cannot be debased or produced ad infinitum on a printing press therefore it is a good inflationary hedge. I do think uranium is a better bet at the moment and would encourage you to look at some uranium companies. Cameco shares have gone from $10 to over $70 in three years. http://www.cameco.com There are several other great commodity plays out there. Silver is a more useful metal industrialy than gold and still has some intrinsic monetary value. Many people believe it will rise even faster than gold in the near future.
  11. Notice that halfway down, Jubak gives an equal rebuttal on why it is on the way up. Do your own research.
  12. Why should there be only one market? New York tends to set the trends.
  13. For all the "Chopper" Ben fans out there, enjoy: http://www.bullnotbull.com/gallery/g-afrt.html
  14. Dow now at 10845. Gold now at $549 (ouch!). Ratio is 10845/549 = 19.75 Tops in gold are usually found when Dow/Gold = 2 See here: http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/115yeardowgoldratio.gif From what I here, Comex activity is light. I hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but... Given that the Fed has decided to stop publishing M3, and given Greenspan's speech the other day where he thought that gold was only held at the moment for "fear value", I suspect that "Helicopter" Ben Bernanke has decided that the best way to fight inflation (caused by the Fed's own loose monetary policy) is to fight all signs of its existence, hence the war on gold. If he can heel gold now, then he can run the Treasury presses at full speed when M3 stops coming out. I think he will fail. The other theory is that program trading is now making up a large portion (yes!*) of gold futures trading and thus the swings are larger and swifter. (*apologies to Harry Enfield)
  15. Turn bearish for gold when 2-3 ozs buy the Dow. Sitting at about 19 ozs now.
  16. Could the million pound plus market be under the influence of bonus season?
  17. That is why it is important to pay a little liquidity premium for investments. I sleep better knowing I can sell in a few minutes if the market starts moving in unfavourable directions.
  18. Looks a cracking house Tempest. 2.5 acres bordering a park. Superb! I have seen a lot worse for that money.
  19. Looking at various weather prediction sites, it looks like the NE US (starting with Chicago and working East) will have a long (at least 6 days) cold snap starting mid next week. Look for oil and gas prices to increase ahead of and during this event. Temperatures will not rise above -1 and will sink to -7 to -9 overnight or lower.
  20. Some salient points: From pg 9: 7. Of the 37 large upturn phases between 1970 and the mid-1990s, 24 ended in downturns in which anywhere from one third to well over 100% of the previous gains in real terms were wiped out. This in turn had negative implications for activity, particularly consumption. From pg 10: 10. The literature reviewed for this study was confined to recent research detailed in Table 3. It suggests that prices are broadly in line with what were identified as their main determinants in Denmark, Finland, France, the United States and Norway. The findings are mixed for the Netherlands. However, they uniformly point to overvaluation in the United Kingdom, Ireland and Spain. From pg 27-28: 22. Other factors, however, may just raise the price of housing. Buy-to-let markets, which have grown substantially over the past several years in the countries for which data are available (United States, United Kingdom, Australia and Ireland), are one example. Lower interest rates have increased the return on rental property for investors, enhancing the attractiveness of, and demand for, housing as an investment. Fiscal incentives in some countries have also played a role by providing favourable conditions for those choosing to invest in housing. These markets are, however, dominated by small, first-time investors and their effect on the housing market is not well understood. See for example Scanlon and Whitehead (2005) • In the United Kingdom, buy-to-let mortgages have grown substantially since they were introduced in the late 1990s, from about 3% of total mortgage lending in 1999 to around 7% in 2004. The levelling-off in this ratio since mid-2004 has coincided with slowing house price appreciation. 24. While other housing-market specific factors have had an influence, interest rate developments are likely to play a key role. If these rates were to rise sharply over the coming period – a possibility that is currently treated as a risk in the OECD’s projections – house prices would come under downward pressure.17 In that event, the shape and duration of any subsequent downward adjustments is likely to be conditioned by the current low level of inflation. Based on the historical record, declines in real house prices, when they have followed large run-ups, have taken place more slowly (quickly) if increases in the overall price level are small (large). This is illustrated by the negative cross-country correlation observed between the level of inflation and the duration of the house-price-contraction phases, suggesting that it can be quite protracted at very low inflation rates (Figure 7, upper panel). Emphasis is mine. Overall, quite bearish.
  21. You could look at GLD, the gold ETF. It trades at a slight discount to 1/10th an ounce.
  22. Peak oil is only controversial to those who feel more comfortable without it's existence. Refining capacity is actually plentiful for light/sweet grades. These reserves are almost gone. Gharwar is in decline. If the world went into a recession akin to the 1930's, world oil consumption would halve. If we then never increased our demand for oil we would have 130 years of oil left. 2trillion reserve barrels left (most optomistic estimate)/42million bpd (currently 84mbpd)/365=130.5 That is the longest it will last (assuming we have a deep depression). I am relying on a mix of oil and gold. Ready to sell either if the situation changes.
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