gone west

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/2987 He's beginiing to sound like a goldbug! Welcome aboard, Rich Dad!

Look in the pinned section of this forum. A whole thread on it.

and if we see inflation of 5 or 10% in that 15 years? Your 6% yield begins to look anemic at best.

While admirable, do you not think it risky to put all the cash into one asset? There is also the potential for rental voids and decreases and capital depreciation at some point. What if inflation outpaces the rental increases? What is blue chip these days anyways? Corus? GM? Ford? Oh, I know, how about a nice healthy airline! The amount of income you can withdraw indefinitely from a portfolio is called the safe withdrawal rate. It is somewhere around 4%. This will provide a steady income and your assets are fairly safe even through the roughest economic waters. see here. There are many variations on the theme and a good CFP should advise you of several options. But really, why are you coming to HPC for advice?

Indeed. Pressure from unwinding of the yen carry trade will be short lived. Once unwound, the stronger forces of resource scarcity and Asian growth will return. and on its way to 30...

I have never made any claims that we are heading to an apocalypse. You may have meant some other (newer) member whose handle is suspiciously close to mine. I have always said that gold is a prudent holding (5 to 10%) in a portfolio of assets. Right now, I am inclined to include sludge silver and put the allocations at 20% for all PMs, simply due to the tense world situations and the profligate Fed. I also firmly believe we are in a secular commodity bull market so all PMs should do well compared to cash over the next few years. I hold very little physical gold, as I see doomsday a fair ways off for now. JMHO.

income...

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/2844

I think the oil bourse is also a bit of a non issue. Russia already sells oil to the EU in euros. Norway is thinking of setting one up in euros (along with a fish bourse ). FX markets are so smooth and transparent, that I don't think it will have much of an impact. Peak oil will hurt the US far more. The nuclear issue is a bit more disturbing. Iran is probably developing a weapon. Its auld enemy, Isreal, has them. Its neighbour, Pakistan, has them. It would be strategic stupidity not to develop one of your own. They are building a facility to house 50,000 centrifuges. Not really required for nuclear power unless you want a few dozen power plants. The other issue is Iraq. If civil war breaks out in Iraq, what will Iran do? Will they aid the Shia's? Will they make a land grab? At the moment, the ME is a very volatile place, and it is only going to get worse.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.asp?...w&page=dustbowl Parallels to the 1930s are just becoming too real!

Gold cannot be debased or produced ad infinitum on a printing press therefore it is a good inflationary hedge. I do think uranium is a better bet at the moment and would encourage you to look at some uranium companies. Cameco shares have gone from $10 to over $70 in three years. http://www.cameco.com There are several other great commodity plays out there. Silver is a more useful metal industrialy than gold and still has some intrinsic monetary value. Many people believe it will rise even faster than gold in the near future.

Notice that halfway down, Jubak gives an equal rebuttal on why it is on the way up. Do your own research.

Why should there be only one market? New York tends to set the trends.

For all the "Chopper" Ben fans out there, enjoy: http://www.bullnotbull.com/gallery/g-afrt.html

Dow now at 10845. Gold now at $549 (ouch!). Ratio is 10845/549 = 19.75 Tops in gold are usually found when Dow/Gold = 2 See here: http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/115yeardowgoldratio.gif From what I here, Comex activity is light. I hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but... Given that the Fed has decided to stop publishing M3, and given Greenspan's speech the other day where he thought that gold was only held at the moment for "fear value", I suspect that "Helicopter" Ben Bernanke has decided that the best way to fight inflation (caused by the Fed's own loose monetary policy) is to fight all signs of its existence, hence the war on gold. If he can heel gold now, then he can run the Treasury presses at full speed when M3 stops coming out. I think he will fail. The other theory is that program trading is now making up a large portion (yes!*) of gold futures trading and thus the swings are larger and swifter. (*apologies to Harry Enfield)