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Venger

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Everything posted by Venger

  1. There's never going to be full agreement on each matter, but some causes (HPI++) have far more credibility/certainty than others. And many look to risks, and possibilities for future falling prices / better affordability for GenRent (or upsizing / or the adult children being able to buy) I simply hold that buyers are responsible for their own buying choices and the price they pay. That there are millions of different views in buyers heads, including that housing is fair value, not at risk of substantial HPC, or even more HPI+++ ahead. And that BTLers have certainly played a major part in HPI++++ housing financialisation. 10 years ago a HPCer was wanting to blame the banks for all the ills, because he UPSIZED at near late 80s peak with a HPI+++++ spreadsheet, expecting it to be worth £1million in the future. It didn't turn out that way when prices fell and one who had to sell/sold for him. It was not the fault of his renting neighbours. He chose to pay the price he chose to pay, and worse than that, he did so because he looked at housing as a personal wealth. Then it because all about 'advertising'.. 'smiling bankers in plush offices'...... it's all scapegoating, because it's on the buyer. We can't have a market where there is no downside to paying too much. Personal responsibility has to come into it (buying). If not, then what? Protect HPI? More QE/FLS/schemes to put hardship on the true innocents and keep them priced out. And younger priced out renters are entirely innocent vs HPI chaser buyers and all those who brag about mad-gainz. The renters have had no part in setting prices - and to have homes they've been forced to rent, when not being able to live with parents... and priced out couples in their 30s with children of their own can't always live with parents 100 miles away in Cardiff / wherever - having been first in their family to go to University and made an employment success of themselves in Manchester/London.). Fear? There's no one-sized fit to cover all buyers; so it can't be all 'innocence and fear and sympathy if prices fall'. No it's all on buyer. They have their own market view. Fear (as a reason) doesn't cover it when I have seen very very happy buyers in recent years - including one couple who are now on their 3rd home since I've been on HPC forum and renting. They have millionaire parents too if things turned down. There's HPIers and BTLers. Millions of different market views, and market views - just as Sleepers once happily said from BTL side - that have long prevailed over 'people on this forums hopes for lower prices" as he told of his mad-gainz in BTL. adarmo doesn't think prices can fall 23% in his own area. And he would upsize if they did. Yes it is, but not to the point where it's drowned out with rubbish. "The banks to blame for my HPI++++ spreadsheet (90s HPC) when I bought." "All buyers are innocents buying in fear." etc. In a way many renter-savers trying to time market. Time is life. BTLers have interrupted my life - just wanting a home for shelter for my family, vs those who would treat it as an investment asset to extremes, and those who have bought up house after house. I use the forum to read views of many intelligent minds to get as much understanding as possible to "What is going on" (with market). Important matters are discussed and thought through - BASEL III, PRA and all the possible intertwining outcomes for the future.
  2. Quickly read it a few hours ago. One of those BTLers seems to think shortage and more HPI++ because he's introduced others into joys of BTL, and so fewer homes for him to buy up (think he has 50 already) because he's up against other BTLers, and outbid by his BTL competition. No mention of FTB/would-be OO as far as I could tell. Similar here. So much of that, but for many years... in the double-down especially from 2010, and with a fury from 2013. We saw so many houses go to BTLers in Regional Forum, returning onto RM as rentals sometimes after a few weeks or within a year. Then there's been flippers who've bought a house from inheritor (at price I couldn't afford), done it up (including naff gravel little driveway), but found someone willing to pay top whack. Last such flip sale I witnessed was to a GP. Clearly didn't want the hassle of doing it up themselves, at £150,000 lower price the year before. Strange. So many also pulled in many buyers who have the bomad/inheritance, and the higher end positions. A bubble can't pop until it pulls in just about everyone who will buy (imo). Although all the global money too (which is too complicated for me to get full view on). However the main thing has been the BTLers in my areas - for so many many years. S24 amazing. Danced into it. Their astonishment and squeals about it being unfair !! Tax relief change - step into real world about matters of not-fair, from renter-saver side, vs all you BTLers, for so many many years.
  3. They do matter. HPC forum matters. Our individual market actions matter, and together they add up, and count. Yet I infer it doesn't matter much to you - although you've recently bought a house, and go on about pain of falling prices / politically not acceptable / core voters / renters should hope wage inflation / does Venger (etc) want blood and repossession? It does matter to you, but in a different way, on HPC forum. And so many of the issues here only learned about on BTL forums some 12 months+ down the line... Neverwhere came up with a few examples, of how we had thrashed out so many technical measures - no discussion whatsoever about them (PRA etc) till way down the line on the BTL forums. on repossession again... W11 tipped up the other day and answered question about his 2013 purchase (loads of equity) You would trade up... "and prices didn't fall 23% (or whatever the range was in the 20%s in discussion) even in GFC." Spare me human shields. And all the while with view that you will own the home in 20-25 years, rent-to-mortgage calcs, politicians won't allow it (core voters), and "where are the triggers?"
  4. It's not great but build-to-rent (and it's hardly a trace on housing stock really) is not quite as bad as buy-to-let. I agree with Neverwhere below. More quotes but much logic stands test of time - which is another issue I want to pick you up on, if I have time before I have to go out. Says you as owner, who would have my family rent and hope for 'wage inflation' rather than pain of falling prices, which you cycle from patting yourself on back about having recently bought (one day be all yours / owners in control), to saying you can't see prices falling in your area by 23%, to if they did you would upsize, to 'the pain / blood' of falling prices (repossession/bankruptcies) and can't happen anyway for HPI lubbing core voters matter the most.
  5. I still hold one HPCer got gulled into it ("the innocence of buyers") named me, and I pushed back. He even bought up houseface2000's innocence 'carried away' claims, and even within in houseface2000 spelling out he bought with a view of more HPI+++++ for him and renter savers to be wiped out. No innocence there, just an adult with a market view buying a house (and having sold for big money in London anyway with lot of equity in new purchase). So I am somewhat responsible for a 2nd theme on the thread, I agree. Had my fill of it now though.... near 10 years of HPCers claiming 'sympathy for buyers' vs 10 years rent for some, and house prices 40% higher than 10 years back. Time comes when you have to be firm.. we can all see the asking prices out there, and no one is dragging anyone into buying (and we all want a home - some think they are good value... some like houseface2000 bought recently with a view of more HPI+++++++ and if it doesn't work out that way, then too bad for him and his market view). houseface2000 in just a 186 posts doesn't even care for the forum - only someone who has big grudge to the forum could have posted what he posted. Yeah let's close it down and focus on travelling and learning about other cultures instead, while he rattles of emails to Wallayat and prays for HPI++++++ mad-gainz. Care to answer my question on the other thread? You're all over the place about your position, with a few digs into the forum imo. One moment you're renting (as someone who claims to followed HPC for 10 years but joined up in 2017 - next moment you're living with family paying peppercorn rent). _____ It's a multi-trillion housing market.... many HPI/BTL VIs have reason to try and murky logic discussion on HPC - (even when within that there is also disagreement). I don't want to give anything away but even the sensititivty some have to being called a troll is amusing for me - and at times there are some troll-tells in those who keep complaining about HPC calling trolls. It's just as others have claimed - including Greg and bunfight above for example.... robust discussion. Trolling comes in many forms.
  6. And that just continuation of same issue I have with you. Thinking you can position for all others. (Buyers) - You don't know anything about each buyers financial position (inheritance/bomad), their view about HPI/HPC risks and so on and so on. Some buyers I know in recent times believe in HPI++ future and have wealth behind them + family wealth. 40% HPC is just part of their deposit. The greatest of all sympathy eh. Vs rent-for-ever-losers.. and these prices in many areas. I'm on their side. You position with all the sympathy for any HPC 'brother' who has bought recently (if if if if) there's a sharp HPC. It's their/other people's choice to buy. You don't know position of every buyer, and when they buy, they see it as better choice renting - as it's proven to be for so many buyers during the 'Pity The Buyer who doesn't know as much as I' 10 years. Fact you have a +1 from someone else who joined up in 2017 with a view that owners are innocents (can't see what he can see) which I've read 10 years of on HPC forum, doesn't change anything. There's other HPCers who are silent because it's all-been-said year after year after year (of sympathy for owners / "I'm so better than buyers for I know more and they're all innocents, who just want to escape renting.... paying £400,000 - £700,000++++ for homes... just lack my clarity and brilliance") Often they do their due-dill, but expect more HPI++++ / prices can't fall. Better to buy than rent. We can all see the asking prices of houses on market. Market. adarmo at is... can't see prices falling hard because of politics, but hiding behind human shields of other owners just in case. Then telling you he would trade up if prices fell 23%. W11 with all his equity after buying in 2013. No victims here. Several indicators that were wrong, followed by QE, followed by more mad-gainz... that other people bought into and have enjoyed. HPI wealth to extremes. Raccy and hios £1m+ of HPI gains on a house in London since he bought. While others remained renting, and more priced out than ever. When did you first have opportunity to buy a house? Would it have made better financial sense for you to have bought at some time since then, rather than renter-saver. Somehow you've got a lot of money together (good for you) - some of us more priced out than ever on renter-saver side, and can't do anything about those who can/will pay these prices. It's called a market. Not need approval from foreverwrong massive ego sympathy-forever/pretend-sympathy ("i care because I know so much more for 14+ years of being wrong about house prices"). I'm surprised some of the sympathy givers can even get their swelled ego heads through a front door. It's a market out there. It's not your choice, it's other people's choice (to buy). They don't need your approval, nor to be on constant "Sympathy Alert" - does Digsby want you sympathy for his choice to buy. Have you asked him? Reads like disrespect to me - that you think you're right and he's set to be wrong - whereas I respect his market choice, and he knows he is responsible for his choice. He's no idiot. He's taken a market view in buying, as I take market view in continuing to rent and put up with many issues from priced-out renter-saver side (including not being able to make property as we want it.... always ready to have S21 and two months notice to move). Prefer that than paying/stretching dangerously to overpay for a home. Other people get inheritances/paid more. Market out there... not Dissy needs to approve buyers else they are future victims.
  7. As you say sunshine - while renters continue to pay tens of thousands of pounds up to BTL landlords. You recently bought a house at somewhere around £450,000 - £500,000. You claimed you took the 'contrarian' view about buying. It was your choice. No one dragged you into it. One moment you're patting yourself on the back for buying - (while sneering at HPC/renter-savers as forever-wrongs) next moment you're holding yourself and other more recent buyers up as human shields (negative equity / repossessions) . Constantly switching between that. Now showing the returns/stability that BTLers can expect vs tech stocks. We don't need HPC to be politically acceptable. Gov may have to do what is right (regardless of what HPI+++ voters want - and indeed one Conservative told baby boomers they were 'living in a different world' vs how they think GenRent/young have no hardships in this housing situation.). It's not acceptable for GenRent. And you hope for a solution where renter-savers continue to rent, and maybe one day find their position improved vs wage inflation, rather than prices falling. That's £10Ks rent spent out, and mad-gainz locked in. I want HPC - you want to human-shield it as recent buyer, and talk up returns from BTL imo. As a recent buyer. We don't need forced sellers. We only need equity rich / inheritors deciding to accept lower prices, if money on buyer side turns down, or fewer proceedable buyers at current prices. A market. You've taken your position. And later you said you would trade up if prices fell. Yet human-shield it for negative equity, repossessions etc.... HPC as politically unacceptable (voters). It is my goal, but at lower prices. Can't do anything about buyers who have their own market view as don't see lower prices ahead. Who expect politicians to always support HPI and never allow any fall back, because HPI voters matter most/owners matter most. You've got equity. You said you would trade up if prices fell. One 2013 buyer tipped up the other day with view that so much demand to buy that prices can't crash (99.999999% of people want to buy) - and if they did crash, then he has lot of equity to handle it. Just ego loss. You've just bought and wouldn't be wiped out in a crash.... what makes you think all other recent buyers would be. Loads have inheritance/bomad/savings. Renter-savers exist, and to buy, they need lower prices. "Wage inflation... can't be falling prices, politically unacceptable - I own a house - can't see value drop." You can sell if you fear a HPC. Number of houses up for sale scraping historic lows... You can't have it both ways. Blood and repossessed and bankrupt shielding the HPI++++ again. You bought. Wasn't capitulation. You said you took contrarian view and don't think prices can fall much in your area, together with your view that politics means prices can't fall. I respect those who buy, but it's their adult market free choice. I recoil at these prices, others view and pay/confirm high prices, or even push market up when setting new high price on a road. A solution where priced out renter-savers, in a market where millions of BTLers claimed millions of homes (tell me about the £ returns greatness again for the BTLers), put you first (to protect your position as recent buyer with lot of equity and who doubts prices can fall 20% and finally says he would upsize if they did), hope for wage inflation while paying £10Ks more rent to BTLers for 5 years+ ???? If wage inflation ever came vs static house prices..... (which actually may rise against any wage inflation). Votes again. You bought. Man up about it. You doubt prices can fall, but if they do, it's blood, repossession, negative equity... shielding it for your own position, in a market full of BTLers, and where something like 70% of homeowners have no mortgage at all !!!!! Man up. You bought. You want it both ways, and now you're bigging up returns for the BTLers as well. And you believe sellers have control in the housing market - that may not always be so. You chose to buy.
  8. And I wouldn't have anything against you in doing so (buying off a couple in financial distress - how common is it for a buyer to know much about sellers circumstances anyway.... I've never bought a house. Just seen them on RM at prices that are so high that no interest in viewing...... just want to dive for cover from in panic.). If no one bought then their negative equity/position may be worse for follow up, and what's worse that can happen... they have to become renters. I just believe there will be very few instances of that overall in event of any HPC... in financial distress younger owners. Obviously there are likely to be some. There are sad-stories all the time... relationship breakups and so on... although often on MSE you find they rent the house out... a few more threads where new husband wants to buy/upsize but finds his wife/gf still has a house rented out with the ex) - vs the wider market to choose better housing value from. That's life - although I would have preferred to have read far fewer stories of 'renting it out' after a breakup during the past 9 years. Read nearly 10 years of 'if' HPC, vs runaway BTLer double down and HPI+++++++++ vs all money I've spent on rent. Been burned vs HPI+++++ and loads of rent spent, with no equity. It's got comparisons if a house falls £50K-£100K in value. Also it's their adult market choice to buy. HPC hasn't happened, and may not happen. They buy for they see it as better to do that continue/rent. W11 tipped up on this thread.. bought in 2013. He tells of how it would take a big HPC to push him into any difficulty..... you don't know every buyer's positions. Falling prices after buying/or some HPI+++ fall back, isn't being 'burned' either. It's the adult;s market choice... no need for your sympathy - has HPC happened? I've read near 10 years of 'Sympathy for Owners/Buyers'. It's respect for their adult market choices. It's you and others who believe they should be thought of as victims... before any HPC, on HPC forum. I've read near 10 years of it (Pity The Buyer/Owner), from renting side, and house prices 40% above 2007 levels. Hatred and despise? It's respect, and not looking upon millions of other buyers/owners as incapable / victims / future victims. And it's almost everywhere. Buyers are just buying for desperate to get out of renting??????? It's just casting other people as no-mind innocents. I rent. I would like to own. Won't/can't do so at these prices, that other people choose to pay. And errr what about HPIers, those who very well paid, those with inheritances... those who expect more HPI, those who doubt prices can fall (where are the triggers one is recently asking - and others telling me about 99% of demand demand demand means house prices can't fall.......) I wouldn't celebrate it either, but so many positions (including your own as a mild form of engineered sympathy, "feel sorry for brothers burned who buy houses - grossly unfair (if any HPC)" - as always seeing buyer as innocent/victim. So maybe more likely for VI to come in and prevent price discovery (AGAIN). You want better housing value, but still push buyers as some sort of 'burning innocents' for their own market choices, and HPC no certainty. Maybe each buyer should give you a financial-fact-find to be approved on, before they can buy? £700,000 2013 buyer a sure victim... errr with a £500,000 cash inheritance? And I've seen many a sad-face pulled by wealthy BTLers in recent times, and by other wealthy VI, and it gets lapped up. It's because of all these posts that I think adds to the nagging fear that VI engineered sympathy for over-leveraged (and much of it comes from outright owners - for they don't want to see other people have to sell for less as it threatens their mad-gainz!!!!) - you're part of that yourself with 'feel sorry'. And how many other HPCers with similar position (down all the years). So many. Always as buyers having been dragged into buying - they couldn't be expected to put up with renting. I brought up one example where it was mocking the buyer in 2011, and he recently sold it for £150,000 more in Summer this year (and now renting). He didn't need the pity in 2011. Just as so many buyers of 2013, of semi-D I would like to buy are way ahead of me in position vs HPI/rent (unless we ever get any HPC). Well some of us do put up with renting vs pay these prices. And you don't know what goes through all buyers minds. They are adults. FTBs/Upsizers... some with hundreds of thousands of gifted/inherited money. Sympathy For Owners Forum - that okay for you dissy?
  9. One BTLer on PT points out regulations coming in to better ensure renters homes up to energy efficiency standard, and he seems to believe it will seriously impact many a BTLer. It's not something I have looked at closely. It's just I believe all would-be owners could do the same, if the price was low enough. And from BTLers point of view, we're just ignoring 'less than pretty' houses that only need a lick of paint.... as they pay the prices they pay...... and seen many family houses fall to BTLers for £250,000 - £300,000 - £400,000 and return to market as rentals over the years. Maybe there is the odd property where your point would hold true. It's just in this BTLer double-down upon double-down, I have difficulty in finding niche reasons why BTL in some very selective instances may be 'a good'. Would much prefer a would-be OO to get finance to buy and see out professional repairs, to homeownership. Also strange that @adarmois warm to BTL as investment vs 'tech stocks that plunged in 2000) when he was claiming he had recently bought a house at something above £400,000 level, and suggesting to me that renter-savers stay renting, and take a 5-year-plan hoping for wage inflation to protect homeowners from pain of falling prices (if it were possible - he seems to have many reasons why falling prices aren't possible.... all this looking for a trigger.... errr there are many triggers, including perhaps ratcheting S24) Want it each and every way? BTLers buy up millions of houses. There's a conflict for BTLers buying houses that would-be OOs would like to own - even lower-end houses... at higher prices than would-be owners can afford.
  10. There is a lot of distress/hardship on the RentForeverLoser side of things as well - right now, and going back years, vs forverHPI and BTLers double-downs to extremes. And for the young coming into it... GenRent. I didn't rule it out entirely - it's unlikely (and not something I have ever had in primary focus). If it were to happen (a house on market we liked at a price that made sense).. if I discovered sellers were in financial distress then I am not certain. Wouldn't have a problem with financial-stressed overstretched BTLer ... yet also wouldn't have a problem buying from a HPIer (eg a bit like Serpico in fact!!! That type of 'all-about-me person who spent like an Emporer... he bought the house on edge of repo and cheap price, and years later had to sell it in recession at far lower than peak market price, to a neurosurgeon). There's no way I would buy from a young couple in tears - just couldn't bring myself to (HPIers or not) - I don't expect much of that anyway (what's the average mortgage size... even in HTB). It's just the ballooned valuations / not really the debt. A HPC should bring out many other houses to choose from to buy a home. In a HPC my view is millions of other houses (outright) and transaction levels return to much higher than today (people upsizing/downsizing again... like in early 80s with far higher transaction levels than today). So far more houses on market with owners in no financial distress whatsoever. Or, house-Inheritors decide to accept less / and viewers-buyers scarcer. And when values get real and more downsizers (for no longer holding on for HPI+++ for values been found out by others) and blunt reality upon them... and they decide to sell large family homes to downsize... a market shakeup. Values are found at the margin. So a series/pattern of lower sale prices drag down values for all those outright owners. It doesn't necessarily mean the minority with mortgages suddenly go into NE or lose jobs. The housing market isn't the entire economy - indeed in many ways it creates a huge distortion sapping money unproductively, and those on winning end choosing to buy their expensive toys (a Dinky toy collection I recently just sold for £400... etc etc - got rid of those for what connection to Dinky toys are Gen Rent ever going to have in 10-20 years time...). There's no way we can project all outcomes (of a HPC) - but I know HPI+++ extremes giving many hardships for GenRent (unless they have bomad, and willing to accept bomad too.... always remember that 100-house-BTLer and her daughter refusing help, and in tune with all her priced out renting friends). There's always going to be repossessions here and there (I know of one going on at moment - and have no sympathy - the guy was a serious HPIer and my sources tell me was big into 'property' (other property) as well. £1m+ house. I mentioned it earlier into this thread. People buy houses dissy. It's their choice. They have seen it as better than renting. For years during 'the Pity' there's been raging HPI... even since 2013 in many areas. Some may go into NE.... but what's worse you want to guilt trip me about in a HPC? That a few may have to sell/repo and become renters? HELLO to you from the RENT FOREVER LOSER side of things here!!! A wider HPC is just going to shake up values for millions of outright owners, and the BTLer speculator greed. Maybe some of them will have to downsize their own homes to escape pincer of S24/CGT. Or become renters. Big deal.
  11. Did I suggest you should have any guilt in buying? Simply that it was your own choice. What displeasure of 'crashists' - I hold your 2013 house buying choice as your own and I respect it !!! It's not me claiming you an "innocent"/"doesn't know what they are doing" - you bought and you're not renting. Adult market choice. And you have big buffer before any LTV issues / negative equity - so no real problems were we to get lower house prices / HPC for you. My pushback to you was HPCers renter-savers are not just immune to the appeal of buying a property as a home, as you cast those who are buying as more innocent/'prole'/unaware 'fear of being left behind' as those on HPC. Err as a Jan 2008 member, saw zirp/QE, many tens-of-thousands of pounds spent on renting, to 2017, and house prices some 40% above 2007 levels. I know of a few people who've bought recently and they are not idiots. One chose to pay £750,000. I guess they must have had bomad money. A few years ago a girl I went to school with paid £700K for a house, that had been bought at £375,000 the year before, and given a total refurb including kitchen and sliding doors. She had massive inheritance from her grandmother to spend, and chose to pay £700K. People who buy houses should just stop projecting themselves as some sort of victims. That those who tip up on HPC should not widely cast buyers/owners as victims either, when they know nothing about the owners/buyers financial positions, incomes, any inheritance, bomad gifted money... what type of people they are, and what their market outlook is (including the HPIers / those who look down on renters 'dead money). I'm not without sympathy - if prices were to fall - but would need to know more about the owners circumstances. And more importantly they are adults buying houses at prices that others won't pay. No one is being dragged into it. We can all see the asking prices. Some go to 50 viewings eager to buy, others recoil from these prices, or are fully priced out in renting. So no HPC? Okay.
  12. Or as @Neverwheremore eloquently put it. ...and how many posts on BTLer forums have I read in recent years, about them doing a social-good, and not making much money in it - so many. Stop laying claims to all the homes in a housing affordability and supply crisis for the young. You're not doing any social-good - it's all "homeownership for me, renting for you" selfishness and creating the demand they pretend to service. Sell.
  13. Denying millions of other people opportunity at home-ownership in the process, for such a little return. They've outbid renter-savers (for the most part) on every single purchase. Is it a matter of being rich - or chasing riches? If it turns down for them and they get even less income from the BTLs, or have to sell at loss, then boo-hoo. One BTLer with 17 houses in Liverpool going bust is no big deal, vs 17 houses returning to market for chance of homeownership and long-term societally beneficial good. Other BTLers sat on fortunes of long-wave HPI+++ including my own landlord (although maybe not a BTLer anymore if he owns them outright now - and can hold his head high as an outright/debt-free landlord which quite a few HPCers have no issue with). If more recent BTLers have to sell off, then maybe it will bring down value of all his houses too, and more inclined to sell them (hassle BTL / more taxes hopefully to rout out such anti-social BTLer behaviour).
  14. Because once he'd bought a house cheap (and one of the few that were on edge of repo) he switched his position in 2011 and began posting that HPCers wanting HPC means we could be displacing families. He more or less accepts (I think) he was pure VI in doing so at the time. He's STR again and is no longer claiming HPC displaces families. He wants better buying value (maybe for himself and his adult children). And that's why we have to be wary about "They Greatest Sympathy (if HPC") on HPC Forum. To me there a HPI++++ Bubble in many areas. We've had a BTLer double down. There are many Vested Interests who don't want prices to fall - and position about repossessions/misery/cancer/swords/innocence/'plight' of homeowners - and how HPCers are the big-bad.. work harder... And post after post from both those who have a big VI in keeping prices high (inc some wealthy owners and BTLers on forum, more recent buyers, and also from those who think they can see so much more than those who have bought in recent years). Most recently during 2017 I've made a few posts how it would be nice to buy a rental at a cheap/fair price from an in-financial-distress BTLer - or the BTLer's own home. Problem we have is those who have no clue about the market. Who day after day think HPC means massive repossessions, and HPCers wanting to prey on homeowner misery.... in a market where millions of homes owned outright + millions more claimed by BTLers.
  15. Are you actually joking? Do you know anything about the housing market at all. I'm pushing back against those who claim HPCers prey-on-misery and who project HPC as leading to mass repossessions. Who in post-after-post go on about 'sympathy for owners if house prices fall' - vs the actually position of so many wealthy homeowners. Greg has always been far wealthier than many of forum (no issue with that) - and always at higher end of market (Greg). Even Greg appears to accept my view that one has to be careful about those who tip up on HPC with "Sympathy For Owners" (if ever any HPC) for they often have their own agenda (don't want prices to fall). I accept Greg positioning that way. He focused on what he wanted for himself. Now he's STR again he wants HPC. I was just showing the stark difference in his 2016 posts (displacing families) to his purchase on edge of repo in 2011. He seems to understand that there are big VIs who position on HPC for what they want - and have to be wary about those who suggest HPC = displacing families. Do you know anything about the housing market at all? Really.... that I hope to buy a house on edge of repo, from in distress family? It's just wild anti-HPC /anti-me projecting. The housing market has £TRILLIONs in equity. A hard HPC does nothing but make house prices more affordable (as they should be for productive workers/younger people - as they were when many older owners bought way back), and knock the egos of those who took pride in what-it-is-worth to extremes. Millions of houses out there where owner has no mortgage. And house prices so painfully expensive for younger generations. BTLers galore. (Even they are reported to have £1 Trillion in equity on latest source I read). It's about tilting things back to affordability for younger people on housing. For GenRent. House prices can crash with very few repos. Millions of homes owned outright - and prices beyond belief for some of us. I don't like houses treated as investment assets - want a turn where they are considered homes again. So I'm just here on HPC forum, rubbing my hand for a HPC to buy from distressed seller? Absolutely not. One reason I push back so hard is those who would position us as preying on misery / repossessions - when likely to be very few... and even there, should not have those adult market buyers held up as human-shields (matter of fact and degreee... maybe have big bomad money put in as equity cushion) to prevent HPC. "HPC - PITY THE HOMEOWNER - The greatest of all innocence and sympathy!!!" I very much doubt in HPC that I would be buying from a distressed seller. My landlord owns 5 family homes (likely outright now) bought in early 2000s. We can have massive HPC with very little homeowner 'pain' / 'cancer' etc etc that sympathisers position about (often to protect HPI+++). I'm fed up of all they sympathisers using repo/misery/innocents for fear against a HPC. Some adult buyers may have overpaid (although many claiming that in 2008-2010 and priced doubled in London). We all have to take a market position. I can't/won't pay these prices for a home - but I'm not wanting mass repossession either - nor to buy off a family in financial distress. Quite a few of the homes on market are clearly Inherited Homes. Awwww the greatest sadness if the inheritor can't get £500,000 for them.. and HPC.
  16. Those 'speculator STRs'... banking hundreds of thousands of short-term (even from 2011/2012 prices in many areas) from selling in 2017.... or long-wave mad-mad-gainz owners tempted to sell. I would take any rise in STRing as a signal that perhaps some sense is returning to the market. Values are found at the margin, and if prices are to correct (ohhhh the STR speculators vs Gen Rent and house prices at x8+ earnings... let's just overlook that part and look down on STRers who may be tempted out by the mad-gainz... how dare they bank £500,000+ lottery style wins from buying a house in 1994) then maybe more STRs have a part to play in that, especially when they are more amenable to taking 90%, 80% of peak-price, in order to sell. Downsizing/STRs - not too dissimilar. Mad-gainz are on offer........ mad-mad mad-gainz for many long-wave homeowners... but then I read articles from some of them having retired at 50 with a £50,000 final salary pension, take up new position (earning big sum)... and clearly they see things their way. Can understand now incentive to sell.. if they love their home that's fine. Yet those treating them as HPI+++ assets, and not selling because expect more HPI.. need more STRs to bring down prices imo.
  17. It might not always be HPI+++++++++. Look, I'm no great fan of STRs myself, but if everyone just held out and didn't sell, prices wouldn't fall. We need more STRs/downsizer, if it's not to be housing financialisation mad-gainz forever - to help rebalance the market TBH if you think banking £300,000-£500,000-£900,000 from STRing or downsizing is a risk/speculation... then you're part of the bubble think too. Values are found at the margin. If owners can all overlook mad-mad-gainz... then where's the bubble? Go ask Greg about his positioning from STRing. He has just STR'd again. That's huge money put into his bank account (most likely), from 2010 purchase. (He STR'd in 2007 as well). STR Innocence, HPC Again https://www.grapheine.com/bombaytv/graphiste-en-1768f39ac3acee3edc81d952c0cacc72.html Get HPC Started Viral Woot https://www.grapheine.com/bombaytv/design-en-8dc4cf443b06b6b8fa819c173f59d4f2.html Any Way To The Top https://www.grapheine.com/bombaytv/graphique-en-4062558b1312696bcee26d6a0ce7ff86.html Source above: Guardian (a few weeks ago)
  18. Can't find the post atm - will have time later this evening. It was very good. More self-serving misdirection. Most of them also enjoy nice holidays and iPads themselves, with all the guilt tripping. More building should be focused on nice retirement villages (not rip off ones) imo - to suit needs of ageing population. David Smith of the Times argued that HPI+++ . And it's nonsense that downsizing is too costly, and even if the anti-downsizers argument you can still see the quest for more HPI++++ ('lose more gain') Could work !! It doesn't sound unfair. Although there would be some uproar about unfairness. All those homeowners telling us that it was going to their kids anyway... and what about those of us who will inherit zilch too?
  19. So frequently we read VI positions and soundbite that sound plausible on surface - but clearly are just riddled with their own vested interests. Okay that's after a move against BTLers.. yet still the self-serving misdirection - and for so many years it's been 'BTLers providing homes in a housing shortage' / That 'young-people want flexibility of renting and don't want to be worried about a mortgage on bricks and mortar'. On and on it goes. And much of it from politicians / older homeowners too... "Bought a house at 21, but we had to do with 2nd hand furniture and no meals out" / "Lived through 15% interest rates (on our £30,000 mortgage") / It's deliberate, wilful and self-serving misdirection, from so many vested interests, all who have a position in not seeing house prices fall / or sometimes for their own egos. Also it's easy. Sometimes as a way to convince themselves their position was through hard-work, and that inequality gap is just something young/GenRent whinge about for no real reason. Or as Bland Unsight once put it.... I think this is a really, really interesting and important question. My naive and unconsidered perspective is that there is no real evidence yet of a groundswell of opinion that we have an issue regarding housing financialisation. My possibly arrogant perspective is that the attendant issues (how banks work, how money is created and how these things interact with the prices paid for land and who ends up with a claim on rents from land) are too abstruse for the level of discourse that takes place between the electorate and the political class, (which is why, until the Summer Budget* the question was always framed as if the only part that mattered was not building enough houses). My gut instinct is that we end up fighting proxy wars which address these issues (e.g. potential evisceration of the buy-to-let) but dialogue regarding the issues themselves likely to inform action is only conducted privately amongst elites even if it is conducted at all, (which I'm not sure it is). For example, Andy Haldane worries his big wonkish head about some parts of the puzzle but does so from a particular intellectual perspective which may fail to capture the social welfare questions which are implicit in the idea of providing "long term affordable housing". The only place where I've seen all of this drawn together is in Housing: Where's the plan and whilst I don't buy all the analysis or all the answers I do acknowledge that Barker at least makes an attempt to cover all the bases. * I really did find Mark Garnier's remarks in the Daily Mail very striking. Source It's easy to see imo, but also very easy for VIs to misdirect from, to serve their own interests. At some point one would hope some hard honesty comes into it. I'm not claiming to know every aspect, but I do know 1.8 million BTL mortgages since 2010 are not all about helping the housing crisis. They are BTLers looking out for themselves. And it's their own fault if they prefer BTL vs their excuse about 'not trusting pensions / lack of confidence in pensions' - pensions in productive companies, and many have given great returns + tax-advantages... vs outbidding young for homes in housing supply and affordability crisis. All on them., Still is one of the main messages continues to be (from BTLers to politicians to wealthy homeowners to many HPCers) about it all being 'not building enough houses' ....but S24 in the mix..... and other measures... indeed as a decent HPCer PM'd me yesterday (perhaps able to tell I'm feeling a bit up against it at the moment - vs HPIers/BTLer/Pity The Owner Sympathy Givers) (Thanks) @Dr Buy to Let - in the past I think you've also posted some convincing arguments that BTLers focus their purchases/'investments'/rentierism in the areas that younger people want/need to be for work. Only difference in position between us re BTLers/HPIers (which I easily overlook so as to get all the good stuff/learning from your posts) is I can break it down to the individual level - vs- collective masses. Every person has their part to play, and what the individual does matters and counts and has an effect (imo). It's like at BBC Planet Earth show with the snakes all positioned to where the baby iguanas will be found. Then of course there are other BTLers/landlords who focus (or specialise as one PTer BTLer puts it) on ex-LHA / non-working families / part-time working families. You know your stuff about damage of BTL and I accept almost all of your positions on matters about supply.
  20. What a ringing endorsement for landlordism.
  21. It's nothing personal Greg - although you joining in with wig's 'bot' dig, from his superiority over other people, seeing them as having no freewill in their market choices when they buy houses (at whatever price). Just following 'their programming'. Of course I remember you posting: ‘ we have no permanent friends or enemies just interests’ . You only posted it the other week and I poked a little fun back to you with a video. https://www.grapheine.com/bombaytv/graphic-en-7262377eb69acd1fe5c5a611002e7993.html My main point here is to emphasise that one has to be very wary of all those who tip up on HPC forum about 'sympathy' for owners if house prices fall. You are proof of why one has to be wary. Why, after being a member of HPC forum, did you suddenly begin posting the 'pain of a HPC' after you bought a house. Projecting misery for owners and guilt tripping younger renter-savers - after you bought a house at edge of repo? The most likely reason is you didn't want house prices falling any further, and you wanted the HPI to begin. (And now you've STR'd again). It wasn't anything about being a good-heart about owners and "I care". It was likely the purest VI. You bought a house on edge of repo at low price !! HPC also is not likely to bring about that many repos, but you were in position to buy one that did in that window before QE galore really took hold. It means lower prices with is nothing for most owners apart from ego-loss, and opens up opportunity for younger generations to become homeowners at better affordability than x8 incomes today. Some of it's been in earnest (over all these many many many years) for they always see HPC around the corner, vs years and year and years more HPI+++ and priced out renter-savers having paid up many £10Ks in rent during the same time to BTLer. Those who buy are not more important than priced-out renter-savers. We have no equity for years of rent paid out (and recent sold prices 40% above 2007 prices, with few hosues up for sale, and those that are often asking 50%+ more than 2007 prices). Any HPC would have to be powerful just to put 2013 buyers back to 2013 prices in so many areas. And even real HPC (if ever) would be negative equity for some (not all - including those with BOMAD). There's comparisons with that to all the expensive rent that renter-savers paid out over the years with nothing to show for it. I've already got years of negative equity in rent paid up and vs HPI+++++. If if if there's any HPC in future, negative equity isn't death, sword, or cancer - and has always been adult market choice to buy.... outbidding other renter-savers in the market. My view is that adults have to be free to make their own market decisions - and when they do buy, it's their choice. All the 'blanket' Pity The Buyer, is just a nonsense. And even example of 26 year old smiling couple (recently bought) I used as example on this thread told they had an inheritance and loans from older family. They're all involved in their adult market choice to buy. It's their market choice. And they see it as better than renting. If prices fall some of their inheritance equity takes the hit. Yes you've changed your mind now you have recently STR'd again. I still hold it as low to be on HPC forum, very soon after you've bought a house on edge of repo from someone (who you later saw seller going about their life in same village as I recall it - living their life... wasn't death for them... they continued with their life and began again you later told forum - doing okay for themseves... can't have a market with no downside to paying too much /no downside to not selling at mad-mad-peaks for outright owners either... )... with all the guilt tripping to those who are priced out and renting about HPC meaning 'displacing a family'. That show you for your positioning, and it's really a ripe place (HPC forum) for people to tip up with all the 'Pity The Homeowner' / 'Pity The Buyer' and all the guilt tripping. Of all the places to do that....... HPI Protection Forum/Guilt Trip Forum eh. Especially when vast majority of homeowners have mad-gainz of equity - and a HPC only an ego loss. When so many renter-savers trapped/priced-out in a long era of BTLer housing financialisation and other owners treating homes as 'investments' mad-gainz. on. So what's your view about HPC now you've STR'd again? Displacing families? Not hearing that now you are renting again, but can imagine the same if you buy a new repo house. "American has no friends, only interests... my family / begin the HPI++++ and guilt tripping on renter-savers wanting misery of falling prices." I've already endured it once from you, and it was bullsh1t (Pity The Owners vs HPCers - after you bought.) And I hold many who tip up here mostly have their own VI when they position the same way. One very wealthy owner is all about 'HPCers wishing misery' when it's clear as anything it's all about protecting his mad-gainz. He doesn't see any misery for the priced-out younger people on GenRent side (he never mentions it and doesn't care) - it's all a cover to protect HPI++++. Greg you're older with money - and STR money/profitz again - where some of us have had to work to save up any deposit - which is very tough going vs HPI/BTL/renting at same time. Very difficult when there are 2011 buyers you see buy (as renter-saver) and people claiming they "don't know what they're doing" only to see them sell in Summer of 2017 for £150K mad gainz.... 60% profit on purchase price. Renter savers matter as much as those who own... as much as those who have bought 2010-2017. Falling prices are not cancer/displacing families/sword injuries. Prices rise, and maybe prices fall. That's life. Things happen... and worse that can happen is some have to sell for lower-than-what-worth-at-peak very very high prices. If they're so worried they can come out to sell, in a market where inventory (houses on market up for sale) is scraping historic lows. None of us know for certain what housing market will do. All the years of sympathy for buyers/owners has only seen massive HPI++++ in many areas I follow... with renter-savers in far worse situation (more priced out / more rent spent) than almost all who have bought.
  22. There were two PT threads I read this morning. My memory was a mix of one above, and this one + probably a few others. It's funny because just as a main quest on HPC is to 'Pity The Homeowner' (in event of any HPC). So many themes over there are 'Pity The Landlord' vs S24 / possible bankruptcy. It's not a game. No one forced you to buy other properties (supply and affordability and plunging homeownership), to rent out to other people, right at the old peak (pre credit crunch 10 years ago... and where policy response shouldn't have kept BTLers alive another 10+ years). Yet 'huge respect' for older landlords back to the 1990s.... what for being older and more homes/more BTLs/more HPI+++/ It's not retrospective. There was also this. Mortgage broker + BTLer. He may be dyslexic or something, but does mix it with other people on BTL lending side/housing side, so I am alert to whatever his views are. As I recall it, last year and year before that, there was not much concern re S24/other/housing market.
  23. +1 ++++++++ This morning read a BTLer forum with a 4-page thread about BTLers caring - but others straight up saying it's pure business. One 'caring landlord' (hmm) was all for trying to arrange a 'National Section 21 Day' and get TV News to focus on crying/worried tenants, as a way of applying pressure on Govt to reverse Section 24. Now S24 and he sees the coming wipeout of other landlords.... "they couldn't have foreseen S24." Errr... you have 20+ homes (maybe 50) bought since late 90s. You don't think that's sign of an emergency vs younger people ever more priced out, and BTLers playing 'landlord' with other people's homes. "Homeownership for me - renting for you." https://www.propertytribes.com/landlords-want-to-gain-from-others-pain-t-127631875.html One of them plain tells how she's fed on other landlords coming a cropper in the past, but finds it hard to see others being BTLers into future ("model broken"). As for all the others blaming Govt (re S24) - you got what you wanted. Housing affordability crisis, Generation Rent.... you went into that. Worse outcome is they you become renters in the future. They see what the want to see.... What did the Fergus say; "We're in business to make money, not house people. We're property investors."
  24. Read that in the The Times - it may have been on the front page because of the Queen's 'share'. Have to admit it all left me confused. Although I did check the share price at the time and it has had some performance. They've already been working on it for a decade... £3.8bn mine windfall for farmers — and Queen April 30 2017, 12:01am, The Sunday Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3-8bn-mine-windfall-for-farmers-and-queen-l9sd60vq2
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