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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by Venger

  1. Does anybody remember that luxury floating apartment block. They were selling flats on a ship and were going to sale it around the world with the owner occupiers on board. Last heard it wasnt selling very well and then it all went quiet.

    Yeah I think the ship is called "The World" by ResidenSea (residency :rolleyes: ).

    Still seems to be doing ok, and their official website only has 2 studios and 8 apartments listed up for sale.

    Apart from the size, and the apartments, it got a lot of news attention at launch for residents enjoying possible tax-advantages.


    David Rutnam, a director in Deloitte & Touche's private clients group, says that full-time residents could avoid paying the UK's capital gains and income tax.

    "It is possible to avoid paying tax, if you get rid of your UK property and live on the boat for at least three years," he says.

  2. 'House prices may fall 30%'

    Metro Article linky

    During the past five years, house prices have risen by an average of 51 per cent, climbing to about seven times the average salary.

    As the boom has stuttered, three 0.25 per cent interest rate cuts in the past five months have failed to revitalise the property market.

    In fact, the pace of the falls has accelerated during the past 30 days, according to property valuuation website Zoopla.co.uk. Average house prices will fall by £310.73 a week this year and by almost £1,000 in London, it predicted.

    Edit update:

    Here a news release with zoopla's findings, which don't seem to support the Metro's claim of a future prediction... just what zoopla have determined has already happened.

    Press Association:

    House prices 'fall £45 a day'

    3 hours ago

  3. I'm expecting some heavy duty increases in unemployment in the coming months to really weigh downwards on house prices.

    Telegraph 29th April 2008

    And according to John Philpott, chief economist at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD), the lull caused by these changes could be followed by an "avalanche" of redundancies in the coming months, as companies realise that the economic downturn will be deeper and more painful than they had anticipated.

    "It is quite likely that people are just waiting and seeing if this turns into a major slowdown," he says.

    "There could well be a stampede, a sudden avalanche of redundancies, if there is more bad news in store. I think this is a new phenomenon. People have become used to mild slowdowns. If it transpires that this [slump] could extend into 2009 or beyond, [companies] won't have any alternative other than to cut jobs."

    A deep slowdown, and possibly recession, is now the central prediction for many forecasters. If the housing market continues to deteriorate as fast as it has in recent months, driving consumers away from the high street and depressing profits, it could be the trigger which sets off this avalanche of lay-offs. This could lay the ground for a vicious circle whereby soaring unemployment causes even sharper falls in house prices and economic growth, which in turn spark further job cuts.

  4. Poles are old news. There are lots of Eastern European countries to supply us with migrants: Romania; Slovenia; Bulgaria; Croatia; Lithuania, Estonia, etc, etc. I doubt we'll notice any lack of cheap young people.

    And those migrants are exactly why there will be no significant correction in house prices - and indeed will resume going ever upwards in value - according to the Daily Mail's Andrew Alexander in Thursday's edition.

    Their skills in the black economy together with what they will be entitled to claim from in benefits will stop the crash. :angry:

    The politicians' calculation may well be right, since a steady rise in the value of one's house has come to be seen as some sort of inalienable human right.

    Which, in itself, if other things were equal, means that no government will ever swallow the medicine required to bring about cheaper housing. However, among the things which are not equal anyway is the immigration factor.

    If it is any consolation to home owners, I can assure them that prices will resume their rise in due course.

    This is not because of any clever move by the Treasury or the Bank of England but because it all comes back to simple market forces.

    So long as the increase in the population outruns the increase in the supply of new housing, prices will go up.

    It does not matter that the rising tide of East European immigrants are coming with no money in their pockets and without well-paid jobs open to them. They will still need and still pay for accommodation.

    It may mean ten Poles to a house or a dozen Bulgarians. But providing them with accommodation, to rent or buy, will still push up prices.

    The alternative - of providing housing faster than the immigrants arrive - would mean concreting over much of South-East England which, apart from being undesirable, can only proceed slowly for bureaucratic reasons.

    I mention Bulgarians because it seems the country is providing a new back door to the UK. Applications for Bulgarian citizenship are pouring into Sofia, from Macedonians, Ukrainians and Moldovans.

    Once they have become Bulgarian citizens, they are legally free to move anywhere in the EU and Britain is the obvious target, partly because it is easy to get jobs in the black economy and also because our welfare system is a soft touch.

    They are also attracted to Britain not because they love us but because of the universal nature of the English language. It may not be widely spoken in the mountains of Macedonia, but Hollywood and the internet spread the tongue and make it the favoured working language. Anyway, it is easier to pick up than Swedish.

    The forecasts for the rise in population remain alarming. This increase simply cannot exist alongside stable, let alone falling, house prices. For existing home owners that is a consolation of sorts.

    Though whether your neighbours will still be speaking English is another question. Perhaps you should brush up your Bulgarian.

  5. Please supply a link showing where this figure comes from.

    The link you have provided shows the range of incomes possible for those working in education but does not give an average.

    The majority of teachers are on the main pay scale, with a very small minority working as advanced skills teachers or in leadership.

    Perhaps the median would be a more suitable measure as a result of the large range with such a small minority at the top.

    Yesterday's bbc news has a section covering reporting teacher's pay - which I trust as being reasonably accurate.


    £20,133 - starting salary (England and Wales)

    £34,281 - most experienced teachers' salary (outside London)

    +£4,000 - additional pay for inner London teachers

    £39,525 - headteachers' starting salary

    Nearly £100,000 - most experienced headteachers' salary

    Radio 5 also interviewed a few teachers yesterday afternoon, with one whining on about how she'd just bought a house a while back and now was finding things tough with all the price rises of petrol and food and electricity and gas.

    Are we to bail her and others public sector workers like her from the strain of negative equity too?

    Twenty minutes ago Radio 5 was reporting on just how many different parts of the public sector may be going on strike in the next few months... suggesting it might be called "the summer of discontent".

    Are there many strikes going on in the USA? I can't find any recent reports of any, just stories of how life has changed for many people suffering in the downturn, but getting on with it as best they can, thinking as positively as they can, grateful for employment when they have it or get it, and not making impossible demands on the government as public sector workers here are doing.

  6. Radio 5 had a few angry callers (parents) taking a swipe at the striking teachers yesterday.

    Saying how they'll be forced to find alternative measures for looking after their children whilst their at work... the general theme being the parents in their own occupations are suffering just as much from the credit crunch and low-inflation pay-rises, and teachers are taking the p1ss.

  7. Freeplay Indigo Wind-up Lanterns are pretty cool.

    Anyone in South Manchester affected by that power-cut in the early hours about 10 days ago?

    Woke me up... BANG... not sure what happened but heard it. I've got a great view from my house... total power-cut, all houses in blackness, all street lamps all out, house-alarms going off (battery?). Power returned after 12 minutes but it was a reminder to have some supplies in, and our lanterns came in useful.

  8. Robert Shiller, the Yale university economics professor who accurately predicted the top of the internet boom, said today that there is a good chance that residential property prices will fall further than those sustained during the Great Depression when home values fell by 30 per cent.

    Is 30% some sort of average? I'm not an expert on property valuations during the Great Depression but do know some properties suffered far more severe falls in achievable prices.

    By 1929, the Connecticut suburbs of New York were already so jammed with commuters who had grown rich in the bull market that choice properties were selling for as much as a million dollars. As Jim Grant points out, this was actually the top of the market for that type of suburban property. The million-dollar houses in Greenwich of 1929 "changed hands for as little as $75,000 in the 1930s."

    Source: Source: The Great Reckoning (1992 - James Dale Davidson & William Rees-Mogg

  9. Yep I reckon this is the case - mortgage interest rates will stay high / climb and they will all become like NR, i.e. "if you don't meet our criteria when you come off your fixed rate, either go elsewhere or take our 10% SVR".

    Not read this entire thread yet.. skimmed through and agree with all who say it won't have the banks chucking loadsamoney at FTBs.

    This Is Money

    21 April 2008, 2:17pm

    Chancellor Alistair Darling gave the go-ahead to the scheme in the hope it will lead to cheaper mortgage lending and prevent a 1990s-style housing crash.

    Yet Bank Governor Mervyn King admitted 'the Bank has no powers or authority to instruct the banks to do anything' as questions were raised over what could be done to reduce mortgage costs.

    Howard Archer of Global Insight said: 'It is important to be realistic what this scheme can and should achieve. With the economic environment deteriorating, banks are likely to - and should - limit the amount that they lend anyway, even if liquidity becomes increasingly available and cheaper.

    'While the scheme will hopefully provide some support to the housing market, through making it easier for banks to get funds for mortgage lending, it remains highly likely that house prices will fall this year and next. Indeed, a sharp correction is still very possible.'

  10. He's just split up with the girlfriend, so the house is on the market. They did a few improvements (put a wood floor down etc.) so lets say they spent about 5k?. The EA valued the house at what they paid for it.

    This is the only house I can find in Wilmslow at exactly £280,000 I on Rightmove and it's hideously over-priced imo.

    Oh and I wouldn't buy anywhere in the near surrounding area of that Colshaw Estate, cause of fear of increased crime come an economic downturn, despite all the money they've pumped in to doing it up.

    Edit: It's probably not your friend's place as no wooden floors, but nevertheless, I wouldn't pay £80,000 for that place even in Wilmslow.

  11. From Fly Aways Classifieds, these are two of her "portfolio" I can't find the third ....yet.



    Ah ok I found her expat classified page here and tracked her third property back to rightmove.

    Property 1: £699,950

    Property 2: £230,000 (now £220,000 on rightmove I see)

    Property 3: £149,950 (on rightmove)

    Reduced for quick sale. £30K under valuation. This won't stay on the market long. Lovely second floor apartment in Roath Park, Cardiff, close to University Hospital Wales

    She's taking a break from the expat thread as well - stressed out apparently.

  12. Similarly, in this Saturday's Telegraph property supplement, the "Word on the street column", usually written by an increasingly bearish Edmund Conway,

    Increasingly bearing and probably increasingly worried Edmund Conway.

    Economics Editor of the Telegraph, a FTB of only 2 years ago, being refused credit cards....

    Seems to have been oblivious to what was coming. I hope he's well paid and remains well-paid, or has access to family wealth.

    Edit: Link

  13. Yes, they can. But money printed without a background asset with value and interest to be earned is worthless, so why bother? It acheives nothing and merely devalues the money already in circulation

    The quickest way for the government to run out of money is to print more of it.

    Only backward countries with no significant capital market or countries wrecked by war are better of with Argentine money compared to deflation.

    Losses implied by concerted inflation would cripple an advanced economy. Foreign money invested/bonds/gilts/treasury debt would be liquidated and shifted out as soon as it became apparent. The markets can withhold billions of pounds faster than the government can print it.

  14. And more from today's Sunday Times...

    Although I suspect she's still got around £1 million in equity, if she still has all her 5 properties, despite struggling to meet repayments. That could change significantly though.

    From The Sunday Times

    April 20, 2008

    Dinner party conversation turns to property and the credit crunch

    We know it’s mad, but we’re still slaves to house prices

    Rosie Millard

    [snip]And so, when the conversation headed down the credit-crunch route (as it tends to do) and our neighbours told us they had been negotiating a remortgage, it was naturally of vital interest. Yes, it was tough, they said. Yes, it was costly. Yes, the administration fee made them choke. We made sympathetic noises and, in a scene being played out in stripped-wooden-floor kitchens across the nation, passed the red wine. Then came the crucial question.

    “How much was your house valued at for the remortgage?” I asked, casually. Because their house is the same as ours, what is theirs will be ours, price-wise. And British homeowners simply love to know how much their home is worth. We cling on to that information rather as Gollum does with his Precious. We are still clinging right now, but are worried it might be a bit less precious these days.[/snip]

  15. Yesterday's Independent... Millard adding more lavish fees for writing about her situation.

    By Rosie Millard

    Saturday, 19 April 2008

    Oh god, my bank manager calls me with news of impending Armageddon on my bank account. Money I've been pounding the doormat in expectation of has mysteriously been held up on the magical "cheque run" from one of my many employers. It's two months late! I'm fed up with sending polite invoices and email reminders. I decide to call them in a thinly disguised fury. Got to be careful, though, shouting at employers, particularly as this lot pay lavishly.

    Whining on about her French bank.. does that mean she still kept her French apartment despite hitting problems with debt in 2005? Seems crazy if so. (Times) article.

  16. Honestly, I thought you made this quote up as a joke.

    The people she finds most irresponsible are those who are trying to whip up fear. "There is a website called Housepricecrash.com and I am their deadliest enemy. They all rent and have a vested interest and enjoyment in watching others suffer. That's sick. Schadenfreude is absolutely disgusting and a terrible trait. There has been overpricing in some areas but this is not America. We are not going into freefall unless we panic ourselves into it."

    She doesn't know what she's talking about.

    Your link went to the wrong article (unless they've since changed the article URLs)

    Locating the cause of the property crisis with Kirstie Allsopp

    Last Updated: 12:51am BST 19/04/2008

  17. Seem like the situation is really getting to Fly Away now.

    She's using less and less smilies.

    That thread: Whinging Pom House Seller thread page 894

    Well my news is that we have accepted an offer. Not a great offer and there are lots of conditions on both sides. We should exchange at the end of May but not complete until September/October. Feeling very low about it, but it is essential. Lots of things going on in our lives to do with the business which had to be sorted and this will sort them. We are not sure whether we will make it to Oz but will validate in Feb - which then gives us a year until Feb 2010 to get there. Not what we want and I am gutted. Life is a bit complex for us at the moment and I am stressed to hell. Not what you thought I'd say when I finally accepted an offer eh?:unsure:
    House still on the market until exchange - got a viewing this afternoon and the Saturday one too. Have spent 2 days in negotiations chipping them up and chipping them up and setting condtions - ie house still on market and no dropping the acceptance price for anything. He is also going to pay us an allownace during the time between exchange and completion to make up for us having to pay the mortgage.

    There are many complications in our lives Hayles - we have money tied up in the other 2 properties which aren't selling and we need to rent them out rather than try and sell them right now. Otherwise we will just use up all our savings in mortgages.

  18. Story:

    so last night i woke up to a bang ...looked out of the window to see the house opposites car on the drive blazing away and the house had caught fire due to the car being parked right up against the house.

    Kept up all night with fire engine/police /ambulances etc.

    Ive also had my car window smashed and a confrontation with a bunch of skinheads. fookin hell it is sh1te round here.



    Have you read this Guardian article about one guy's experience of living in Salford?

    'Get them Polish out of your house or I'll burn it down'

    (Originally posted by someone else on a different HPC thread)

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