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Everything posted by Venger

  1. Venger

    Buy or not

    You make many very good points @disenfranchised ............ I feel you. It's been slog-slog-slog against 'We all understand that the market is rigged' - ******** BTL. ******** QE /Global QE/ZIRP/FLS. ******** Mad-Gainzers/Gov Won't Let it Happen. ********* HTB !! HTB 2.0 x 3.0 x 4.0. Also it's been a slog-slog-slog against all those who year on year have casted buyers as innocents/victims (from their positions of 'superior knowledge') - low-rate deals, and each year raging more HPI (year on year in so many areas) vs the renter-saver, and the renter-saver often renting with next to no security-of-tenure (2 months) & "Every picture hook subject to permission." & so much more... including many a story that has angered me for tenants on HPC... including multi-prop BTLers (of 20 years) lording it over highly qualified, well paid, hard-working tenants/families. However I still have to hold we only have to be right once, to put us back into some sort of position. It's housing... such a fundamental right... but it's been financialised to extremes. It came... then bailout to extremes... you're so right to point back to Dublin. QE/Zirp/Global QE.... ECB been at it for ages. JC (USA) - yesterday: Few things rile me up like high housing costs. It's such a waste of a society's resources. We're paying much more for an artificially inflated NON-productive asset. Also the renter-saver has been the one to carry all the costs..... during so many years of 'Pity The Homeowner' (for the HPC to come..vs HPI+ HPI+ BTL BTL year on year on year on year on year on year). You may believe you have more skin in the game because of your age/financial position (well done on that - if from productive work then well done), but I would argue it's far more intense/critical for those of us still requiring a mortgage in order to buy. It's different... I can see it your way too (massage for Carney lol - yukkkk no-way), but also hard-going for those of us who will need a mortgage to buy (who could have bought at lower prices years ago too during the 'HPC is coming now... 2009-2010-11-12-13-14-15-16-17.) And some of us also renter-savers pre 2007 as well.... It's also a slog-slog-slog against all those who tip up on HPI protection side, claiming we're twisted (etc) for wanting HPC and 'the misery it would bring' (from their own positions of owning £1m homes outright). Yet also **** BTL. I don't care about mad-gainz BTL. I refuse to be complicit in housing financialisation (even if I were transported back in time to 2003.... when in fact I was actually outbid for a home to live in..... 1997 let's say... no no no no no no no to BTL - we had to come of age into BT-*******Let madness, to madness more, to extreme BTL buying up homes, turning would-be owners into renters, paying mad prices... greed of multiple houses). Life is short, but make a stand... no matter what it has already cost me (fortunes and so much hassle vs easy life HPIers/BTLers). The stakes are too high. I position for change, with hope.... S24 offers hope. (Although TM and others reaching for New HTB doesn't - and story after story to be depressed by.. inc developers paying themselves £millions, and Osborne's Northern funding going into building large apartment blocks being sold to investors).
  2. Come on Fence. I had to live through 'the living breakdown' for debtors and mortgage holders through 2008, about 'the pain' and 'the innocence'.... It's near 10 years later, and prices have zoomed again + near 10 years more rent paid out...... Didn't you read my entry a few posts back.....? Anyone who has taken on a mortgage did so out of their own freewill..... other people exist on the Gen Rent Forever side of things. We've got multi-millionaire Inherited Homeowners on HPC, with hundreds of thousands of pounds in other investments... 2015 members who've made post after post after post shaming HPCers for wanting better housing affordability..."Recession / The Pain". **** that. And those who have taken out mortgages in recent times have MMR/did free-will, and will generally be okay - have to take brunt of market like Gen Rent has been forced to vs BTLer double down and boomers/baby-boomers Mad-Gainz.
  3. A few posts below, lifted from: How Osborne Could Kill Btl By Neverwhere, July 30, 2015 in House prices and the economy As a HPCer once said, I'm not interested in what it's worth now, I'm interested in what it will sell for. (All the outright homes/BTL). Or both. Runaway HPI mad-gainz can cause more HPI and new Range Rovers, imo. pipllman a BTLer - but also a BTLer who was/is keen to buy more houses into a HPC. Power. Things change. Power on 'power'. Although S24 and somewhat of a drop in BTL purchasing activity in recent times. Still £Billions though.
  4. There's a good article in The Times (of a few days ago). Just a few of the snippets. We already all know that those with mortgages into the 'credit-crunch crisis' saw rates floored, and good years ahead, -vs- the pain of house prices falls, that otherwise would have occurred. Homeowners matter/mattered far more. (Although then prices zoomed upward again in many areas in the new-normal - from buyers paying more).
  5. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/house-prices/10840343/Sorry-baby-boomers-really-did-have-it-all.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/house-prices/10804031/Baby-boomers-were-handed-free-housing-says-top-insurance-boss.html
  6. In that case (if there's HPC and they lose some of their mad-gainz) we're all very good. That's all that matters. There are a lot of points I agree with you on, but just very wary of casting all such owners that way. It's true for some, but not all. And where it is true for some, their own choice to live in splendid isolation. If HPC happens, then tough for them. You even set out that some 'know' because they see the struggles of their own children. Although for me, often-time -but not always- they care more about their mad-gainz than prospect house prices fall. Yes; lets' have a HPC first. I've also had 9+ years of people tipping up on HPC claiming that buyers we're innocent/didn't know what they were doing/victims/the purest innocence (they make their own choices and been good choices for many)... first from wobble of 2008 (and hardly any sellers in my own area), then during 9+ years of HPI+++++ to 40% above 2007 prices, and during a BTLer double down, where time after time seen family houses on RM fall to BTLers, at painfully high prices (£300K-£400K in non-London non-South East), and then put back into rental market. So for sellers... have to wait and see. At the moment the mad-gainz are LOCKED IN. It's a market of individuals. There is a lot in what you say. However it's not the main truth of matters. It's true from some, but not all. Some outright owners also want HPC, but don't want to move - that's fair enough. They want better value for their adult children. Fair enough. On other side of matters, there are many older owners who are proud of mad-gainz. They can see things around them, but mad-gainz and their position come first. If they don't want to sell, that's fine. All too often they have pushed mortgages (throughout Bubble 1.0 and Bubble 2.0) for they want the young to overpay, for they already have a higher end position in the market (larger home) so big prices paid confirms/pushes up value of their own home (imo) And I see it in so many other ways... including "Young today can't buy homes because buy too much coffees, go out, too many holidays, buy too many iPhones, eat too much Avocado Toast - want the freedom of renting." And; "We had 15% interest rates in our day." - "We had to do without furniture when we bought family home at 25 years old." Comment after comment in newspapers. And many owners who like BTLers because taking homes out of the market, making it likely their own home will be worth more in future, for less supply for buyers to fight over. There is a lot of positioning that casts off the very superb win-mad-gainz of their own homeowning position, and onto the young, imo. Not all owners do it (whatsoever), but there's a lot of it. And Bear Hugs point about a lump £10K pays down 10% of a £100K mortgage vs 2 percent of £300,000 mortgage. Also £100K is really stretching matters for many. Going back, still lots of owners around who bought for <£20K and see value of their homes today at £400K+. We helped one cut back a hedge a few summers ago - a house backing onto our then rental - and told them I was renting awaiting house prices to fall down, and was told "I can't see that happening" (almost with disdain to our view). I disagree. It's true for some, but very few people can ignore the value of their own homes. KiloCharlie, Sam... day after day in newspaper comment boxes you see posts about 'what it is worth'. Entire MSM (which is reflective of dominant control forces in society, imo) is very much tilted to HPI+++ as 'good'.... HPI+++ = good news. And if they live a life of splendid isolation, that's all on them. Gambling... STR or downsizing...../ gambling..? It's their choice but they can't have it both ways (mad-gainz protected) if market ever falls hard. Too low... they see the market as they want to see it, and it has gone their way so far. SS was talking Russian buyers of recent years... They see what they want to see, and the market has proven them right so far. Even had QE rescues/zirp. Can it hold though? Hopefully banks are in a better position to allow HPC, and allow the young better opportunity. Many can see, if they choose to see. (Yes not all in got it so good - talking generally of older owners and family homes worth fortunes). _____ Although he later was minded to see a future where house prices can't fall. It was depressing the hell out of me at the time in 2014..."prepare yourself for life of renting vs older owners mad-gainz / HPI protection", and I pushed back hard for morale, arguing complacency and there could be a trap in BTL double-down. That other people exist and there are other vested-interests (beyond core-voters) with lot to gain from lower house prices. Yet to be fair to SS, in 2015-2016 he did come back to reverse this position, with a view that S24 is a real changer. That Gov/Treasury has really made a move. (Just a matter of waiting / there is hope for Gen Rent with S24 and other measures ratcheting down). ... ..... there can be HPC without more houses. House prices run on money. I rent and hope for change, but can't do anything for those who chose to buy (with large mortgage debt)... and each buyer different, including those with BOMADS getting £250,000 cash towards purchases.... "I don't think prices will fall in expensive areas." (Heard it... their market view).
  7. If those homes they downsize from (don't sell but rent out, because they expect more mad-gainz) fall in value, it's all on them. They are in the market. They just think differently. They have it all and want more. Fine. However if market turns, they will have to stomach losses to their mad-gainz. You're casting older owners as innocents/stupid/thick... and I'm sensing Pity The Homeowner, if we ever had HPC - which many don't think possible. It's like below, but with selling. Casting majority of owner owners in way you do (even if some truth to parts of it) is superficially attractive because it casts you as being able to see what 'mad-gainz wealthy housing rich can't see.' If they don't know Gen Rent exists, if they think forever HPI... it's their market choice. And if it's HPC on them, then too bad. Outright mad-gainz owners as too thick to know anything in life - doing my head in. Of course no-one knows everything, but we have to practice caution, look at market, and make decisions. If decisions your side are foreverHPI on foreverHPI beyond these extremes, and it turns to HPC, then tooooo bad.
  8. The only issue I'm having with you is I'm sensing a lot of 'Pity The Mad-Gainz Wealthy Older Homeowner' if prices fall. They can think whatever they like for keeping their homes off the market (for the moment). If HPC comes along, tough luck to their mad-gainz - with no pity. Brunt of the market, just as it is brunt of the market now for priced out renter savers. All this seeing older homeowners at the higher end of the market (outright owners of houses worth fortunes) like innocent 'thick' children who only know HPI+++ and never look at position of Gen Rent, or wider economic divisions from the splendid isolation of their mad-gainz top-end homes worth fortunes they rattle around in.... and which you say they think of renting out (to keep for more mad-gainz), and downsizing. You're really going out of your way to paint older owners as too stupid to do anything but sit and count mad-gainz, and I sense that if prices fall, it will be about their innocence too. Renting out mad-gainz home (keeping it), to downsize to a easier to manage rental. That is intent. Deliberate intent. They take a market position, and it's one of expecting more HPI. There have been economic shocks in the past, including in their own life times. If they have the view they are above market changes impacting them (Greg's post) because it's always ended up as long-wave HPI, mad-gainz to extremes. If it tilts away from the mad-gainz 'couldn't be bothered to look and see Gen Rent Priced Outs' in my view that it was always easy mad-gainz for me in isolated superiority, then that's life. Not 'Pity The Homeowner' if their £1m owned outright home should crash to £500,000 value. You posted this, and I agree. Many levels of intelligence. Not thick enough to not be able to practice caution though. They are not that thick in their £800,000 outright homes (kilo charlie). They tell you what it is worth. It's the view of the superior to cast them that way. If they're rattling around in £1.2 million house, it's all on them if they never look to Gen Rent, and think Gov will protect their mad-gainz forever... or indeed expect more mad-gainz. We can all practice caution (including selling for mad-gainz and not expecting foreverHPI all-about-me worldview). If there is HPC, they will have to stomach it, is all I'm saying. Your outright large house long-wave HPIers, are not the only people who matter. Their lack of intelligence, thickness... 'being told it's always more HPI+++' and believing it.... is all on them.
  9. It doesn't matter if it's a big mix of greed, intent, and ignorance. If there is any HPC they will have to take the brunt of the market, just as younger people have had to take the brunt of the priced-out rental market. There seems to be clear positioning involved in the example you gave, with someone looking to rent out their expensive home (keeping it), and rent a downsize home. Why are they not tempted to sell and cash in mad-gainz where houses trebled in value, trebled again, and trebled again? Because they expect it to hold value or rise in value. If they are willing to live in splendid isolation, counting the mad-gainz (Kilo Charlie etc) to what burdens/unfairness even 'emergency' that Gen Rent is going through (indeed many owners buying BTLs as in example I gave of £490,000 for a 1 bed BTL to feast on Gen Rent), that's their own failing. Maybe they should have opened their eyes. Other sellers can change market values, by accepting lower prices. If your older owners of expensive homes don't squeal at that, that is fine. They can't have it both ways through with "not financially sophisticated - "turn those machines back on" *Trading Places* - bring back my mad-gainz". There are no special flowers here, well maybe there are, in the gardens of 'What it is worth, and rub hands for more HPI" older owners. We only need a tilt of more sellers on that side. Deserve as in they can't rely on having their mad-gainz forever. If it turns they will have to stomach falling prices. These not 'financially aware' owners of homes in splendid isolation to what Gen Rent are going through, thinking or renting it out (not selling), and downsize renting, are market participants. As are owners just sat waiting for more mad-gainz. Might have to see values of their homes fall after seeing them balloon over years...... wow the pain.
  10. I hope that Term Funding Scheme ends soon. Feb 2018? A little bit from The Times at the Weekend - which also looked at possible consequences for Gilts and Shares of lifting rate back to 0.5%. Although in a way I want the banks to have plenty of cash, but only so they can handle HPC. Although in the market I'm only seeing loads of banners and advertisements pitching to would-be FTBs, such as that one where the new owner answers his door to the post-man for the first time, and is 'joyed-out' at getting post at his new house. He chose to pay whatever seller wanted for it though. Full continuation, or pullback in tighter more expensive lending.
  11. Disagree. They know enough to make market decisions. They're not idiots. We all have to position (Gen Rent has to position time after time vs insane house prices and BTL greed of 5 million houses taken). And if they are so green and dumb, then they don't deserve to be rattling around in £500K-£1m homes in the first place. Make way for intelligence. Look at Kilo Charlie, and Sam in Daily Mail comments section. They're not unsophisticated - they know. They don't believe prices call fall hard. They know exactly 'what it is worth' and very happy about it. Even expecting more HPI. Natural law... HPI+++++++++ for meeeeee. And I see that in the way many offer up 'transaction costs' (in downsizing from higher end) vs mad-gainz. I see it in that plan you set out for one such owners, in thinking about renting out their large home, to downsize. (Expect more mad-gainz/value to hold - because it's an investment more than a home/house, in this horrific housing financialistation). And tbh all this 'financially illiterate innocence' nonsense for those who own homes at higher end of market outright, mad-gainz over the years, is no defence. One day they need to be re-exposed to the brunt of the market. It's what younger people experience (as a whole) every single day from the Generation Rent Forever side. They're not willing to see hardships on GenRent side vs HPI Forever Mad-Gainz easy life. Indeed quite a few have actively caused more of it, by buying BTLs. It's time for some older people on super 'what it is worth' extremes homeowners, -'who have not had to think for eons' - to learn about the world. So what if they believe it - their entitlement needs to be challenged as hard as possible. They are adults, not HPI forever deserving innocents. For those thinking of keeping mad-gainz larger family homes to rent out, then going to rent in smaller home - that's pure speculation and belief in mad-gainz forever HPI imo. Market needs to eventually find them out hard - and it will be deserved. Then they can cry over opportunity cost of not banking £360,000 - £700,000 on a downsize, when equity has 'poofed' into nothing, vs the 'hard transaction costs'. It certainly has, and plays into my view about 'learned helplessness' paying. Was all about those on the margin, blaming banks (from 2008-to-now) so as to protect their own mad-gainz. Play the innocent and Gov to rescue to protect Mad-Gainz.
  12. I know, but that's because they believe their mad-gainz are locked in on the £1m type home. It's their own fault if they are not willing to look at the wider gainz/costs position... well it will be if house prices fall at that end. They can't have it both ways. If they are complacent enough to think it's all 'locked in' then so be it, but they can't moan that they should have sold at a later point, with prices as they are (to bank £100Ks of mad-gainz vs £20K-£40K transaction costs of downsize), if prices fall. That sounds like a real speculators move to me - expecting the house to hold or even rise in value (and rents to hold as well), while one rents elsewhere. They think the gainz are all locked in !!!! Don't want to sell. Rent it out for rent + more obvious mad-gainz. And that's where we are, imo. Stagnant, not-true market - although can't want for a change. It's simple to explain. Many owners bought £50K/£75K some 20+ years ago. The values of their homes only rose, because other buyers of other houses in surrounding area, were prepared to pay ever higher prices each year, lifting up values of all surrounding properties. Kilo Charlie and Sam above may have added a few improvements to their home since buying, but the bulk of the mad-gainz only came due to other buyers, month after month, year after year, being willing/able to pay higher prices for houses that came onto the market. It lifted value of Kilo's and Sam's houses to extremes, even though they didn't do anything. The same dynamic is true when market falls. Markets move at the margin. If we go into changed economic circumstances, the £1m leafy homes in my area, or SE or wherever can fall in value if just a few sellers accept lower prices. Your home isn't worth £1m any more, when a scattering of other homes have seen other owners accept £700,000 or £600,000 in order to sell. Those new transaction prices lower the values of all the surrounding areas. Their own home fell sharply in value even though they didn't do anything. So even if your example, it doesn't protect the mad-gainz, if a situation arises where some sellers are actively eager to sell, and accept lower prices. For the moment we have holding/speculation, bed-blocking, but I position against it, to get to the stage above. We need a hard shakeout at the top.
  13. Not fully certain how I feel about any change to SDLT. My main view is sellers should pay it. Especially older owners, when you look at the charts, and see how much equity wealth they have as a whole (mad-gainz). Get the market moving. Even thought of that might bring more sellers to market, in a market that has been full of bed-blockers of larger family homes, not selling because they expect more HPI. Yet as with others, if it's not a cost for buyer, then I suspect prices rise. Buyers have more money to put down/deposit.
  14. And hidden away in this is the real reason - as I remember it I thought he was positioning that way because he himself was set to inherit. They're not downsizing (to bank fortunes in cash even after stamp duty costs/transaction costs) because they think it's going to raise in value, and that they gainz more on the £1m home, than the £600,000 home.
  15. Agreed (HPI madness we're trapped in - with prices so high vs younger earners affordability). True - and so many inheritors mad-gainz house inherited - above working incomse. Transaction costs? I think that's a nonsense when we look out at all the £500,000 - £750,000 - £1m+ homes older people rattle around in. Although it doesn't stop would-be inheritors of such homes trying to push the view that 'transactional costs' too high for downsizing. The estate would still be large for they would have banked huge sums. I hope for more sellers at higher end, so those holding out, see the value of their "won't downsize homes" fall. Values are set at the margin. A few sellers accepting lower prices brings their homes down in value too. Errrr have you seen the costs involved for would-be buyers of a starter home.. vs incomes. That's the real costs. They don't want to spill any of their mad-gainz. And £600K isn't much of a downsize... but let's stick with that. Bring on the HPC, and then see more of them regret not incurring such 'an expense'.
  16. Well your BTL pals are yet to begin properly getting squeezed by S24 - although it's so interesting you're all on the push to buy now. I've got you down as a BTLer btw - no need for faux hurt feelings - just the way it is. When you run numbers through a mortgage calculator it's possible to work out rent-buy risk balances. Also if rates go up or teaser rate deals not so available... there's already many owners on SVR. If I bought now, then experienced some HPC, and then my LTV not qualifying me for a low-rate - would be stuck on SVR. Every £10K less you have to pay for a house is one year you can retire earlier / spend on family. I'm not going to run numbers for someone so hard sided with the BTLers re S24/GAAP. How's the housing portfolio? I saw an inheritor cut house by £100K in 2012 in order to sell, in a cooler market (just before HTB announced in 2013) - and it sold to an FTB. That house alone didn't drag down wider indices but type of opportunity I wait for - and maybe from one of the BTLers. It's so much about the price you buy at.
  17. See so many of those homes, and the inheritors holding out of mad-price. Also seen many go onto rental market over they ears, for why sell vs ForeverHPI. Not claiming they should be morally obliged to downsize. Just pointing out there was a time there was more upsizing and downsizing in housing market, but that has seized up a lot, in all the housing financialisation. Even HTB is a tell to many owners that it's all about 'lack of supply' -seeing younger people pay so much for HTB small homes, and so why sell, because their own home will likely be worth for more in future. Extreme HPI and extreme differences in position between older owners and younger renters/owners, generally - and of course the 5 million homes the BTLers have laid cliam to.
  18. was bust 10 years ago but neither he, his accountant, HMRC or bank realised that. When you think of the sums involved, it will be possible for a minor Civil Servant to earn his whole annual salary with just a couple of interviews with these tax dodgers. I know this feeling, re the BTLers. It what I do. Although I personally doubt much will come from it. So much work to look back, and paperwork both on BTLers side and Lender/HMRC's side. Just as Pop321 says about enforce-ability.
  19. You mean as such...? In a thread called 'HPC The Message' I also argued older owners can see the housing price issues. Not blind to them. Not awaiting the young to 'splain it to them, and then have the owners go on a 'protest' about how their homes are worth way too much. They all just about know what 'it is worth' (for their own homes). In a market economy (with QE/stimulus/HTB) there should be more downsizers, sell-to-renters. It's not been just as a consequence of buying many years ago. Everything has been thrown into protecting HPI+ and continuing a "HPI+++ = good" system.
  20. Maybe, but I just so happened to read this today. (below - his QC opinion/view) If it is so, I get take the view they will impose old-rules as they read now, from a clean start point, than going back. However maybe HMRC would. On HMRC Press Office page on Twitter, so much of the enforcement seems to be against cig smugglers - although there was a story in the news, and covered on HPC about a landlord being jailed for evading CGT, just a few weeks ago.
  21. This is exactly what was in my head when thinking about their tax returns and Section 24. Is there anything particular such BTLers ('investment properties' / not businesses, in their own names) need to worry about, if this new focus on enforcing the rules (perhaps) as they were always intended... and overdrawn capital accounts. What are the consequences of having an overdrawn capital account? If they don't need to claim relief on such debt (as set out in this thread), or can't claim relief on it.... it doesn't get treated as income for tax-relief purposes.
  22. Solid work by a few HPCers. Good reading. Although I can't fully grasp the implications, if Neverwhere's position is correct, when it comes to tax-returns. Also wondering if it may make BTL lending more expensive eventually (hope so). And I find it hard to believe Hammond is behind this. HMRC/Treasury seem to have a life of their own to me - on Twitter this morning was seeing HMRC feed of young HMRC employees with tattoos, slouch-beanies, casual-gear.... maybe working at lower end of things... although seen quite a few LinkedIn profiles of quite a few highly-qualified late 20s-mid 30s HMRC/HM Treasury people as well, and I always think, "Renter? How can you afford to buy?"
  23. And given your view about GAAR and Section 24 a few months back (music to BTLers ears about their being wronged), and knowing what I know about how BTLers think... ...with so many BTLers thinking about selling up (reading the BTL forums).... wouldn't it be a nice time to come onto 'wrong' HPC and try and whip up interest in buying. No HPCer wanting better value I can think of would have ever positioned about GAAR/S24 as you did. So I have suspicions about your motives, together with you're superior view about the forum itself; you alone as the different slant to 'the religious'. Well our different slant sure saw the BTLers dance into trouble, as many of us held they were doing. That something would come along to shock them. Section 24. And the reaction, and the fear, of the BTLers - hahah.
  24. I suspect Consent To Let, and outright owned homes rented out, probably boosts the landlords grip on housing about 50% as well. Section 24.
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