Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Venger

  1. They guy I mentioned on £55K in 2012 and now pulling out £200K on the board (with dividends.. something about that level + pension plan + car) He bought in 2005. Sold for £90K more in 2013, traded up in 2013 paying £400,000 - and those houses have been selling at £650K-£700K in recent times (2015-2017). He doesn't need 'the greatest innocence / coerced' for him. People choose to buy. In a market of plunging homeownership and BTLer-ism that has been on a double-down, and these prices, I refuse to buy. You could always trying picketing the Estate Agents and preventing people going to mortgage-appointments...... it's their choice, and has been their choice for years, all during Count's trime renting and seeing prices double on him. We've got an ACA accountant on forum who has just bought at around £500,000. He's intelligent. He has worked through his decision, laughs at us renter-savers, and took 'contrarian' view to buy now when there's some concern. I see he has a bit of a laugh at Count renting for 10+ years on forever-wrong side of things too. He's not giving it "the greatest innocence for renters." Many people buy with view prices will go higher. It's always the same thing. People thinking they know more than other people, and seeing them as lessor - that's my major issue. And even so when those people are in really top financial/stable (homes/wealth) positions for their choices. Article about 2 years ago said: It's time to stop worrying about the owners, and think of the renters. - Yet it's nearly always the same thing on HPC, for so many years. "Pity The Homeowner." (They know not what they do/done).
  2. People who've been buying houses every single day, of ever single week, for years and years. No one dragged them into it. They took the view it's better than paying rent. And it has been for many of them. Far better. HPI+++++++++ Millions of people enjoy/like high house prices. If they feared HPC to their overall wealth/financial positions, they would sell. We've had multi-decade lows of housing to market. Long wave HPI. All the lending wasn't just 'banker bonuses' - it pushed up the value of rachman's own house to extremes. And millions of older homeowners just like him. Then we had 2008 (the innocence) with QE/Global QE, zirp. Bomad a while ago; 'I can't see prices falling in expensive areas (but I would like them to) - but as they can't, I'm stumping up loads of cash to help son/daughter upsize'. INVOLVED. Market participants. Their choice. How they see the market. Not innocents. They just think different to you. And millions of HPI+++ minds been proven correct for years -vs Gen Rent Forever Ever More Priced Out.... especially as there was another BTLer doubled down... with 2 millions landlords having laid claim to 5 millions homes. Let's see if a HPC will even happen. It's been just around the corner for 10 years for many of the forum, as the 'buyers are coerced / brainwashed' argument pushed time and time and time again. Many people love high prices. Buying for high prices. They are 'worth' it.
  3. Yes but that's just - you know - your own superior view, that doesn't take into the view that many people think prices are perfectly okay - and others expect even more HPI. It's called a market. Not the HPCers should dominate and control people's lives league from their positions of superiority that is wrong on so many many levels, for all different individuals. Read the same 10 years ago for those buying ex-LHA houses in London. Many in better positions today (equity / mad-gainz) vs renters. Their choice. And their choice of buyers today. Do I need to remind you all that many expect more HPI+++. Millions of minds see market differently. We'll see. HPCers 'the plight of owners / the greatest of all innocence of the coerced owners' been saying that for so many years. You can't even see where the mad-gainz of speculation actually are - and who has gained with that - sat in comfy position all over the land (their wealth), in push to have a go at the banks. There's bankers renting, and priced out. Article a couple of years ago about 4 bankers house-sharing one rental, and the BTLer older landlord counting his mad-gainz, on the multiple property side of things. Hmmm. "Bankers". deadasadodo reckons 'older people don't really think about the value of their homes', and don't really see struggles of others - the greatest of all innocence. While also posting about one older person thinking of renting out expensive home, to go into rental downsize. Why would one do that apart from thinking more HPI++++. Those who buy make their choices. In some areas I see fair value. However in other areas, they buy at prices that I recoil from. Yet it's a market. I/you don't know each buyers financial position. - I could go on and on with those who expect more HPI++++. It's their market view. They choose not to sell mad-gainz homes (at top end). Others choose to buy, and upsize. Their market choice. Many getting £50K-£250K bomad money. Others who don't know anything about S24. Others who think Ghost of Rod Hull will protect HPI/Gov won't let prices fall/not enough supply/too few houses so prices can't fall. We have to make market choices. Not always owners as the innocence/coerced. Maybe he will be right. It's a market out there. However I refuse/can't pay these prices. Others who do, do not need to pass each HPCer's control-squad tests. It's their adult market choice.
  4. Never owned a house. It's BTL mostly. BOMAD into it as well. Many factors. However there is always choice between renting vs buying. And no one on the forum knows every single buyer's position and market view towards value . There's buyers who think prices are fine and steady. There's older owners who are looking to down-size to rented, and keep their big homes because they expect more HPI. We all make the market. Intelligence has got nothing to do with it, as seem by BTL being allowed, and boomers who've owned outright for years, rattle around in house worth £750,000 in this market who 'have only known HPI' and 'have been told it's forever HPI' (your post the other day deadasadodo) are market participants. No one is so stupid as to not be able to practice caution. And value of everyone's home (including outright homeowners) comes into it. Also I don't buy your view that people don't often think about other people... (all your rich outright older owners) and if it's so, then **** them into a HPC. It's the superior view. "I know best, and think what I think, so if people don't think what I think, they are being misled." - it's a nonsense. Market out there.
  5. You're a homeowner as well are you not iamnumerate. See things that way...... There are HPCers who've come from nothing, back-of-beyonds, first to go to University and gone on to get good technical jobs that are productive to the economy. High skilled well-paying jobs (not well-paying vs HPI++++). Are they supposed to commute from their parents council house in Wales where there may still be a small box-room, at 35 years old, and with their own 2 children? They're supposed to live in vans, when they're now mid 30s with 2 kids? Renting has been imposed on them - but it's an active choice whether to buy at these prices. And those that do All too often the problem seems to be those who think people should see the market their way, and if they buy a house, they are victims/coerced - when they just lack any knowledge to how the other person sees things, and their financial position. Not everyone is grubbing around with no money - there's huge money flowing, and many choose to buy. It's their adult choice, and we can all see the asking prices. If they didn't pay these prices, prices would fall. And vans - don't forget the vans. The guilty renters, who refuse or can't pay these prices for houses -vs-the 'innocence/coerced' who do (that HPCers have zero idea about financial circumstances/market view of each buyer). Blame the tenant for 'being complicit' eh. Renters 'complicit' and buyers at £400K+ (or whatever) no-mind of their own. I don't like renting, but my choice not to pay these prices. No buyers and prices fall. We've got BOMADs claiming prices can't fall in expensive areas, and they are intelligent people. Their market view. I suffer renting over risks of overpaying (and getting into a financially struggle later), and hope for HPC (of the BTLers especially)
  6. But hey not all is lost, liberate the City from those pesky EU bureaucrats and Britain might be saved: Eh second-part. 'liberating / competitiveness'. US authorities put DBAG through it for their operations in the US. I just can't imagine many foreign powers would want us being 'light touch' than even now. PRA is only just in. We're all set up for BASEL III, unless 'liberating/competitiveness' attempts to prevent that. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-g20-germany-carney/fsbs-carney-warns-g20-growth-at-risk-from-reform-fatigue-idUKKBN19O1B8
  7. Hike... if Base Rate is tipped up 0.25% to 0.5%. £1,162.50 more a year on £465,000 on outstanding BTL debt. Ok; I had to go and look at a few things, including Paragon BTL website. So 'Non-portfolio products' are up-to 3 mortgaged properties with Paragon. (BTL 'portfolio' rolleyes) And 'Portfolio' are 4 or more, and limited company and limited liability partnerships. Ah; it's explained on their website, and I had forgotten (if I ever knew.. 'regardless of lender')... 2012 (cache - should load eventually, for now) https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:t7FApGrrxYIJ:https://www.propertytribes.com/deleted-t-6596-2.html Many of us want a break, from you BTLers. Followed a few of the BTLers to see how they were seeking to adjust with S24. (Adam seeking to buy more properties to have more than 15 with a view would make him be able to have an SDLT future advantage for buying more properties still.) 2016 - no need to read beyond page 1. Although some of it shows how they have bedroom offices for all their paperwork of portfolios of multiple houses rented out.... day after day actively involved in it, for the HPI/yield/multiple homes for them) - wondering if that exclusivity thing really a rule? https://www.propertytribes.com/paragon-mortgages-lending-to-limited-company-t-127623327.html The 'exclusivity' thing. And about their T&Cs. Don't really need to know, but there's a lot of positioning, and hopefully some BTLers can now be squeezed, or, find themselves struggling to get good finance deals/move. Unregulated so BTL lenders have more powers to decide what they want from customers/to prove, one would imagine. I've got a bit more hope of them running into difficulties that way, than base-rates (although S24 is all good). If Term Funding Scheme causes a rise too, that would be welcome. (All this is my weakest area - never wanted to learn about BTL, although grateful to HPC for minds that have explained it very well).
  8. Two very different choices. And what other choices has there ever really been in the housing market? Apart from leave UK etc. You have to make a choice between rent or buy. Two very very different choices, and I can't do anything for those who oubid my family for homes by £100K+. I know many owners and they're not unhappy. Sat happy having paid down debt, big equity gains, vs renters. Read it time over, and seen some couples upsize and then upsize again. Inherited wealth, family businesses, and others on good money. Latest one buying at over £700,000. Top end cars, and wealthy parents if worse came to worse. Not brainwashed or coerced into anything - and certainly in no need of getting approval of each superior-hpcer when they've wanted to buy. Their own market choice.
  9. When they buy they buy, and they'd don't need to approval or blessing of anyone on HPC. They are happier with buying than they are with renting. You don't know everyone's financial position, income, inheritance, future inheritance, bomad help. They are adults in the market. BOMADS paying up £250,000 claiming prices can't fall in expensive areas. 40+ years olds on £200,000 a year and more. They buy houses (including 1 guy I know who was on £55K in 2008 but now hit the big money). So people who buy houses are unhappy - forced into it? There's a huge difference between renting and buying. Buyers DO have a choice. And many people have no choice, for totally priced out and thus renting is their only choice. If people weren't paying these prices, values would drop. Just as owners could bring more properties to market if they wanted to, and seek to cash in on these values, in a market where inventory has been scraping multi-decade lows. Read 10 years of it, and house prices in many areas doubled vs renter-saver position. Even Count admits areas he wants to buy in have surged in value, and now asking twice 2007 and 'flying of the shelves'. I'd rather keep the view that people are individuals, adults, with millions of different views about the market -and will always push back against the view of some HPCers claiming buyers/owners have no minds of their own/brainwashed/coerced and 'have no choice' (rent-vs-buy = no choice?). You're not the spokespeople for all buyers / owners. If it is (if prices fall back), then that's on them. NE, if it happens for more owners, is not death. Is anyone coming along to make whole (just a little) so many years of rent paid (£10,800 a year) out to a landlord, with no equity to show for it, as prices up 40% on 2007, during a BTLer double down. Any loss in value (if any drops) is just the flip side of what renters had to pay up, while others on low rates, built up equity, and seen values surge. Also it might not be (post 2014). Prices up here another 20% in recent surge - and asking prices somewhere between 25% and 40% up on 2014. Many £10Ks spent on rent my side since 2014. We have to take a view of the market. You can have it both ways.
  10. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/RM9/Ellerton-Road.html
  11. BTW there's also this. I searched each page of this thread for bim31005 before posting. Lifted it over from another thread, which itself was just a record of a difference of opinion you were having in the comment section of a newspaper, with one of the many BTLers who had some right grudge, and again was claiming GAAP ! "You wrong." Featured landlord was a 38 year old BTLer, with 21 properties around Upminster, East London. Hence it appears that within the first 100 words of your source there is an explicit reference to the idea that tax rules will sometimes differ from GAAP, as any accountant would tell you. How is my integrity and credibility looking now to the passing reader? After all, it was your link. Sooner or later you need to wake up and realise that in any investment craze there are the people selling shovels and the idiots chasing a mirage of riches (and thus ensuring their eventual penury). The mortgage broker and the estate agents who got you into this mess were selling shovels. You now have an over-leveraged portfolio which will bankrupt you if you don't wise up. The truth is that I am giving you, for free, the best advice you'll ever get. Sell up now. Personally I'd rather you didn't sell up. If you do, you may get to keep some of your winnings; I rather all you BTL muppets ate losses, but if wishes were horses, beggars would ride. So there you have it people, next time some BTL moron gives it laldy with nonsense about GAAP send them a link to BIM31005. Job f**king done.
  12. Exactly so. Some of us not got the financial position you have (I presume) - and couldn't take risks of too much speculation hard in financial markets, with our savings. Many on renter side (not buyers) have been at slow slog trying to get something into savings... 30 years old, hoping for HPC. Inflation in what? Bread? Fuel? None of that matters vs house price costs / House Price Mad Inflation++++++ They've rocketed up in value no matter how you paint it. Prices people been paying have been close to double 2007-08. The only re-education necessary is that of your own, as seeing yourself as so superior to those who have bought houses any time in last 10-20 years. It's still not an 'after 2007 punch up' in the market, TEN years later on from 2007... and even then sale prices in your area are way up. You know very little about the 'crashed' areas you point to. Still high for local incomes, and still the BTLers. I just want you to be the first up to 'bail out the victims' (if prices ever fall) who 'were forced to buy' - by volunteering all your own savings to be taken. I've worked too hard for mine, kicked up huge money to old rentiers landlords with multiple homes worth £350K+ each, and still need a mortgage after a crash. Yet here you area claiming buyers are coerced, vs your superior understanding. It's B*******. We can all see the prices. Painfully high prices even for a couple with solid earnings for me. Others pay x2 what we'd pay. They have only been 'forced on us' (on the renter side) by those WILLING, ABLE, ACTIVE to be paying ever higher prices during past 10 years, as some of us paid up 10 more years of rent at £90,000+. I'm fine with my own choices - but I'm less fine with you claiming all buyers coerced etc. They have choice. Rent or buy. And they buy. Many buyers happy with what they pay. Otherwise would pay the price. And we'd have more sellers if there was any panic of any real HPC. You're claiming me strong-willed - no... just ******* priced out, with you and others continually casting the owner side as brainwashed/coerced. Super-planetary sized ego. What about all the Bomads saying (even on forum): "Best you can expect is dribs and drabs (of falls) but not even that in expensive areas" as they pump in the huge gifted money to help their adult kids upsize at very high prices. All the owners who scoff at likelihood of HPC. The BTLers. On and on it goes. When people buy houses they aren't all victims of advertising, with you sat as superior. We're up against it, and you're all casting them as brain-dead. 10 years later after seeing prices double again.
  13. So 10 more years renting for you, prices doubling in your area, is just 'after party punch up' since 2007. And now buyers during the past 10 years were 'forced' to pay what they paid??! Denial.
  14. No one is forcing people to pay these prices. No buyers, prices fall. You're not boss of their lives. They have free-will, and must have something intelligent about them, to have the deposit, pass MMR, and be outbidding you for houses by fortunes. Those who would boss other people's lives - they do my head in. They have their own market view. They make a choice to buy, or to rent. Owners have their own market views - and not many rushing to sell, cutting asking prices by anything significant, into this painfully expensive market, with such low-inventory of houses up for sale at the moment. Buyers; at the moment the prices they pay keep prices high for everyone else, that's true enough. Pay higher = house prices go up for all other owners. Makes position of renter-savers worse. Maybe the BTLers/HPIers do have a point about your savings.... Spiritual Destiny Count. 10 years of rent for you vs house prices doubling. They'd love to get hands on remainder of your savings to bail out the 'innocent debtors', keep their own homes, and you can work for 2D a day to pay for life in new-rental world, and they keep all the homes. You're in denial claiming last 10 years has just been more HPC since 2007, and just the after crash 'punch-up'. The one ones been taking the hits are those who have refused to be complicit buying in a QE/FLS/ BTLer double down market. Prices doubling in your areas is just more crash? Denial.
  15. So plenty of room for more HPI++++ just like the last time the 'victim squad' came out. £160K a week. Although there was a footballer living near us, who really did well to rent. Top end did fall a bit (Leafy Cheshire), and at City he was right to rent - also must have saved him lots of headaches for he was able to move after a raid on his rental home when he was away. And when he moved clubs he could just give notice. (Has that Liverpool to Man City player sold his bling house yet). I've not got PB installed - the cuts should still be on shown there with PB. Was asking around £3m to begin with iirc. Zoopla had a £3.25M 'Tempt Me' for it. https://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/32-heybridge-lane/prestbury/macclesfield/sk10-4es/21569179 If he'd bought it, at that asking price, he'd be stuck with it, and taken massive loss imo. Best comment was in Daily Mail at the time it was told he was renting rather than buying. Property-mad long-time owners who've only known HPI - doesn't matter that the price is.. value for money don't matter... buying better than renting. Pick of the comments from the newspaper story about him renting. Although I've just checked. Couldn't find any record of a recent sale price...Ran a search on rentals... and it's there asking £9,000 a month. Yah for 0.25%, QE, FLS, Term Funding Scheme, Global QE \o/
  16. Many HPIers and BTLers think the banks should relieve you of your savings with a bail-in debt-jubilee. Never mind you've been on HPC for 10 years and seen prices just about double in Northampton during that time. To rebalance the market. You can have a spiritual destiny, beginning again. I have pushed back against their superior view - and I will do the same for those who cast those buyers of recent years as having 'been forced to pay £700,000'.
  17. Exactly. "Build Them More Council Houses - but stay away from my posh area." - was the call of one of the biggest HPIers I know of. Renting would only be better if the rent over a life time was substantially lower than mortgage over a lifetime (and all maintenance covered) + highly secure tenancy + choice of nice rental homes. Not some grey box. We need a sell off and millions of homes to be forced from the BTLers to the OO side again. I think you're very very wrong there. It's just what you think, and you think other people should think, and if they don't think what you think, then they must be 'brainwashed / victims' for lacking your superior understanding. Plenty of people do want that as proven by the market. Their debt though, not mine. I'm not paying to bail out 29 year olds looking down on their rental pals, who have a 28 year mortgage and just paid near £300,000 - saying it's "all about doing without treats." And then all the way up to £500K+ mortgages.
  18. Let's get this done already. BTLers whinging is one thing (about S24), but they need to feel the financial pain for all their home-grabbing. SELL. Get the BTLs back onto the market for FTBs/younger people to become homeowners at lower prices. Life of bliss ending for the BTLers, back to real world, sanity restored, and rebalance for the young. Pre announcement of Section 24 ^ Source: BOE's Cunliffe Warns Buy-to-Let Could Amplify Housing Shocks, Bloomberg, 10 November 2015 From the speech itself The key development in the housing market however has been the rise of mortgage lending to ‘buy to let’ purchasers – ie landlords – rather than to owner occupiers. The private rental sector in the UK has been growing rapidly over the past 15 years partly due to structural reasons. The stock of mortgage lending for buy to let has increased from £65bn to £200bn over the last decade. And it is growing quickly now, by around 9% a year. Buy to let now represents 16% of the overall mortgage stock and accounted for 80% of net lending over the past year. Buy to let mortgages pose different risks to owner-occupied mortgages. Buy to let mortgages are typically interest-only, so loan to value reduces more slowly than for owner occupiers. New owner-occupied mortgages are now almost entirely amortising. There is normally a larger initial equity cushion as buy to let mortgages in the UK are typically at lower loan to value ratios at origination than loans to owner occupiers. It is not clear how buy to let investors will behave when interest rates go up or if house price growth moderates. The greater initial equity in buy to let may mean that investors are more resilient to small falls in house prices and higher servicing costs than owner occupiers. But they may prove more vulnerable to larger falls in house prices and increases in rates that stretch their rental cover. The majority of buy to let investors in the UK are small landlords; 78% of landlords have only one rental property and the majority of buy-to-let landlords are lower rate taxpayers. It is not in my view at all impossible that sharp movements in prices and a loss of confidence in future capital appreciation, in combination with interest rate increases, could cause a substantial number of buy to let landlords to seek to exit the market. This could put material downward pressure on house prices. Though buy to let investors are very different to owner occupiers, there is in the end only one housing stock and housing market in the UK. So the risk is that they could amplify an adverse shock to the housing market. Source There was also something else very telling from Cunliffe... may have been in same speech. Something like "If BTLers stop buying/sell, and young begin buying homes.." very similar. Sounded strategic to me. Rout them out. Then make BTL prohibitively expensive on taxation.
  19. There's a blindness to the monster. HPI Housing Financialisation. BTL-ism. "Multiple homes for me - Renting For You." "Multiple homes for her - HPI+ For Rest of Us Homeowners HPI HPI - Gen Rent HAHAH haha ha ha ha ha." It's like some demented Python forever sketch world. Before and after 2008. Brown and Osborne (allowing BTL to continue) RTB a failure by itself. Everything has been consumed by BTL/2nd homes/Rentiers/Cheap Money parasitical rentiersism HPI worship/ex LHA yield hunting 'specialists' with 50 homes in dressing gowns till noon.
  20. Good points - but even when there is so, the fact we have housing financialisation in so many different forms; - chasing HPI+ - 2nd homes/celebrating HPI+++++ news stories as economic win -That BTL products even exist (get that house rentier in a 20 year growing housing supply and affordability crisis!!!) - That 2nd homes+ (with some 'ex-LHA' specialists owning 50+ homes each as individuals) - That so many previously RTB homes that have fallen to the investors/BTLers (even those after death/divorce etc). We need to get houses back from the rentiers. HPC. It's the prices. And then it's the prices of the rentiers/HPIers own homes. It's all tolerated because of wider outlook (including of homeowners) to HPI++++++ = good for me, imo. Only reason I can think of. I just don't see how one can blame RTB itself as 'hasn't worked', when now the BTLers have so many of those former RTB homes. Building more LHA when the BTLers/investors already laid claim to so many? Gov would just overpay for the land. Developers will charge grifting prices to Gov. The quality will likely suck. The designs rubbish. Just more housing financialisation, for no stomach for HPC. RTB without housing financialisation (runaway HPI that happened after 1997) (the BTLers now having so many homes) would have been a different UK in my view. Sure I don't much care for some having opportunity to buy previous council houses at a discount, but am all for homeownership. It wouldn't have mattered so much if more homes then build at affordable prices (without runaway HPI/2nd homes/BTLers in the mix). And according to The Times, vast majority of private newbuilds built since 2000 are ALSO now in the hands of the BTLers.
  21. There's also a few good tales on this thread. Some people always going to see it differently. For all of GS claiming "HPCers wish misery - and that HPC can't happen anyway", he bought his house dirt cheap, and then traded up into the 1990s HPC. He wasn't handing out his savings to those struggling. He got to upsize. Some owners who rode it out... then saw HPI+++ ... can easily imagine they saw things very differently (my house didn't drop in value) - and in my area, everything I'm told is prices just stayed stable (South Manchester / Cheshire), and that's backed up by stats I looked at. For view of 90s HPC, imo area matters. Perspective of whether had to / had not to sell. Whether wanted upsize. And into 2000s of course, Labour made Conservatives out as the baddies for even allowing a HPC to happen, with all those political billboards. ....more..... And of course I've read a few HPCer tales blaming Gov/Nigel for announcement of MIRAS ending, because they chose to join in fury of buyers piling in to pay mad-prices and outbid the renters... only to then see prices later crash, and others get opportunity to buy at better value/upsize. Then there's J.Ferguson re 90s HPC.... (Pains me for it's more investorsz - even then) Even Serpico's tale is good, but his own choice to live like an Emperor (something many readers overlook as he paints himself 'the businessman victim' / too many franchises.... purest entitlement bubble-boy to me / spending as hard as it was possible to spend) - he's angry he had to sell his house/properties cheap... but then he wasn't thinking of the previous buyer when he bought mansion dirt cheap in previous recession to the 90s.... got the EA to drop it as low as possible (sold on behalf of Customs & Excise it seems). Seems he sold in 1993 under big pressure from his lender, and the main house sold to a neurosurgeon. (Brilliant). Then all the other stuff that came to market, in the shakeout. 1992. Last time I checked the above in 2016 (some holder who was happy to let it ride into HPI++++ sold off in 1992s lows), it was £1.5M - £2m+ for a single flat/property. (Campden Hill, Kensington) Although it's madness for me. BTLers. BTLers to extremes. BOMADS. MAD-Gainz extremes older owners. Locked in/HPI+++ locked in. Gen Rent Foreverz. Like SilverSurfer said in 2014... arrange your affairs to be a rent-forever priced out. (despite all his mad-gainz easy life... £22,000 flat in Fulham, buying Porsche... rock solid final salary pension at 55 years old).
  22. Phil Spencer laid into this on a TV show in 2007, when most of the panel / interviews were bullish re HPI+++ for the coming year (ITV Tonight) - apart from Merryn who was really cool on house prices, as were one or two of the people she went and spoke with on the show (OB VT - not in studio): Spencer - direct quote: I've even found the HPC thread of the time - but sadly no video source. Panel was Rosie Millard, Phil Spencer.... maybe one other - yes Merryn - but she also was part of the side that went out asking questions of others, including a stock-broker. There were two identical twins, "There's so many people wanting property, that if prices fall back, then it's just a buying opportunity and people buy and that prevents prices falling that much." Anyway Spencer was bullish about HPI outlook (in 2007 on that show), but he did pushback to one point about the crash happening over 5-6 years (as the identical twins had just claimed). "It took five to six years, isn't that right Phil." He stopped them dead and said, "It happened overnight. Interest rates went up to 15% overnight and so the crash happened overnight." (I have a good memory for somethings and I clearly remember this on the video rewatch I did - it's fallen off the net now.). Probably for London. Opportunities arose from that moment for buyers/upsizers (IMO - I wasn't there - but from reading...). Indices may tell a different 'smoothed' slow story but how to see it as the Wilsons tell it... ......about living in auction rooms..... http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-431224/How-maths-teachers-clocked-707-houses-240m-fortune.html and their 'haha' (grrrrrrrrrrrr) tricks on Christmas Eve to people in desperate situations... I want to get a BTLer to accept a low offer, or ideally on the BTLer's own home... or so many of the older owners who live in splendid isolation (HPI) and can't see HPC ever happening, counting their mad-mad-gainz to extremes, and those old owners downsizing to a rental while keeping their main house so it can get more HPI++++. Of course South Manchester/Cheshire area (as told to me/RK and others.... didn't really get much HPC early 90s... just sort of cool normal market, and was soon back into swing of trickle HPI++. There was some HPC in Salford for flats in early 90s.. grimmer places.) I remember that part too..... and in fact I have a direct quote from that part of the show. (see below) (One poster also doubting it was 'overnight /few weeks' - but that is what Phil Spencer firmly claimed re 90s HPC.... maybe for London/SE- and one of our family friends - older - was able to pretty much upsize in 1992 at a real HPC price in London for her family - some old selling off for way below 'what it was worth peak price'.) There was a cool spell in my area in 2012, a year before HTB, where a house came up for sale by an inheritor. He cut and cut, and found FTB buyer... very fair 2003-04 value. Wasn't enough to pull down wider indicies, but was opportunity. (1 sale in an high value market, with QE/zirp/few sellers.... but 1 sale in 2012 where few buyers... pre the change of HTB.... which for me led to a BTLer double down frenzy from 2013 onward). I don't see it (HPC) as 'having to wait a further seven years' from when/if HPC begins. There will be opportunities to buy at HPC 'fair value' price. Although I can understand why HPI Protectors push it (6-7 yearssssssss), on top of 'S24 against GAAR'. Although the HPC cuddle squad has always been here for them for past 10+ years into credit-crunch then into HPI reflation.
  23. Can't find it - but latest article I read was more hard-hitting than this, which is awful enough. And I sure know how 'The MK Don' thinks about tenants/people - rent rent rent batteries... counting the spare keys in his box of 50+ homes, in his dressing-down getting up at noon. Human Shields against S24. 'Threaten mass S21s' and get TV cameras focusing on crying tenants, to get Gov to repeal S24. Housing Financialisation / Temptation to RTB owners... vs mad-gainz / eager BTLers. HPI HPI HPI / Rent Roll / 'experts in LHA'. More HPI....
  24. There was an article a few weeks ago setting out just how many RTB homes had fallen into the hands of the BTLers. To me RTB was never the problem.... woooo people with homes and very little debt / manageable debt / soon no mortgage. A stake in society. They were tempted out of them by housing financialisation to sell to the BTLers, for mad-gainz, along the way, which then went to mad-gainz mad-gainz mad-gainz more for the 'investors'. Can anyone remind me of just which political party it was who switched financial regulation all around (FSA/Treasury/BoE) and oversaw ever more BTLism? Cmon; what's HPI+++++++++ been like since Thatcher. Major saw through a big HPC. There's something more hard hitting about RTB homes now with Private Landlords, from a recent article..... Not this one either from 2016 either. Got to be tempting for some owners to cash out... (vs Thatcher's day... where may sell for £10K/£20K), when £100K+ there to be made, oh and who is there to buy. Why the BTL investorz.
  25. 2008 "They didn't know what they were doing." (Anyone who owned a house - but pointing more toward those who had bought 2004-2007) It's also been just about 10 more years of (each year)... "They don't know what they're doing" - (Buyers of 2008-2017.) Just about 10 more years of (each year) "Pity The Homeowner" (for when prices imminently fall). Just about 10 more years of (each year) "You HPCers are wishing misery, pain and recession on owners, all so you can get a cheap house."
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.