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Dilbert

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Posts posted by Dilbert

    German Homeownership Rates At 43%

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    Its the degree of punitive-ness if that's a word.

    Home ownership is a good and desirable thing but when easy and unsustainable credit has pumped that up so that it costs 2 people half of their income for 25 years to buy some sub standard dump, you have to look at the alternatives.

    Out of interest, who owns all the housing stock and how well concentrated is it in Germany?

    The state? Private companies? Or the individual equivalents of our amateur BTL slumlords?

    I saw a television programme a few years ago about housing in Germany. Firstly it hi-lighted the percentage of rental to ownership, but also advised the rental properties are owned by pensions companies. They will buy whole apartment complexes or housing areas and rent them out, in the same way our pension companies buy and rent out commercial property.

    I suspect the German method would generate a steady stream on income, as opposed to our method.

    Vis Using This Websites Name....

    in About housepricecrash.co.uk

    Posted · Edited by Dilbert

    Just joined the party after a beer (OK, more than one) so apologies to anyone who may have posted this already.

    If searched as three seperate words, the sponsored link is for our friends at MoneyWeek. Just tried as all one word though and ...... oh yeah, see what you mean.

    (You won't belive how long this took to type with no speeling mistooks in it!!

    Edit: Next time I must remember to read the first post, the poster already pointed out it was all one word. Where's my coat.... ?

    Hps Permanent High Plateau

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    FP

    Just Googled your enquiry and one of the links was a letter in The Economist, which sounds like what you're after.

    " SIR – October 1929. Professor Irving Fisher of Yale University: “stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” June 2005. Harvard University's Joint Centre for Housing Studies: “in several metropolitan areas...natural or regulatory-driven supply constraints may have resulted in permanently higher prices.” Enough said. "

    Hope it helps ;)

    Property Windfall Tax?

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    I'm not a frequent poster but wanted to jot down my thoughts on the implications of this, which should it happen, could be the pin to pop the bubble.

    As the article mentions, we've had the Council Tax revaluations mysteriously postponed until next year or so.

    Afterall, basing the new bandings on current prices which are way over the top would likely lead to a revolt.

    So Gordons wondering how he can raise taxes whilst making the majority of the population happier by not revaluing at todays prices.

    "I got it" says Gordon, "we tax those people who sell their houses on the difference between their buying and selling price."

    So the following could potentially happen;

    1) Prices fall pretty quickly as sellers try to minimise their tax exposure (Reduced sale price = Reduced tax bill).

    2) Gordon knows all those FTB's who are priced out will at last be able to buy somewhere to live (with an added bonus that they may vote for him as PM in 3-4 years).

    3) Gordon raises a nice wedge of tax.

    .... maybe someone should post a link to the article on the expats site ... <_<

    D

    Are There Any Ftb's On This Website?

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    I'm one too!!!

    Rarely post but read the forum everyday and have learnt so much, so thanks to all!!

    Could just about buy now, but instead have decided to watch those prices and bide my time until they reach trend, then I'll be able to afford something much better than a one bed chicken shed.

    Round my way, there's some new build 2 bed apartments which started at £240, but now down to £201 in 6 months.... and they're not even completed yet! :o)

    Deep joy :o)

    E.a Advises 'if You Can't Afford It- Don't Buy It'

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    right_freds_dead

    Thank you! IMO it's an easy solution - prices must fall... a lot.

    I posted it as it appears to me to be a turn around from what we're constanly seeing in the media, as the guy is from the NAEA I think they've realised they now have to soften up Joe Public for what will happen next. I just loved that line about not seeing property as an investment!

    Shakerbaby

    Just spotted the option for adding an attachment ... thanks, it helped :D

    t_afford_it.jpg

    post-1230-1118342035_thumb.jpg

    E.a Advises 'if You Can't Afford It- Don't Buy It'

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    Hi all

    Just read this in my local paper which arrived today and I just had to share it with you. Sounds like a major back peddle and softening up exercise :) I've snapped it with digi camera but can't attach here, any suggestions?

    Dilbert

    In this first in a new series of articles about all aspects of buying property, Dean Sanderson, chair of the National Association of Estate Agents in Lancashire and Cheshire, takes a philosophical view on what is one of the most crucial investment decisions most people will ever make.

    The constant talk in the media about house prices rising - lowering - stagnating - has left anyone considering buying a property for the first time or those looking to move house - very confused.

    Buyers look to estate agents for advice and the advice of any reputable estate agent should be 'if you can't afford it - don't buy it'.

    Ultimately, you must base your decision on the mortgage repayments and also take into account that interest rates rise - which means so will your mortgage. As a general rule of thumb, your mortgage should account for between 25 and 30 per cent of your disposable income. Don't forget you also have to pay utility bills (and they are rising all the time), council tax, insurance and probably run one car or two!

    Most of us also want to go on holiday, dine out occasionally and have a little money put by for a rainy day. if your mortgage accounts for 50 per cent-plus of your disposable income - you could find yourself struggling.

    Be realistic about your own abilities. Buying a run-down house on the cheap can cause major headaches. Can you live with the builders for months on end? Do you really want to do major DIY projects after a hard day's work? Have you budgeted for all the work that needs to be done?

    When you think you've found a property you like at a price you can afford, take into account the close proximity of local amenities, commuting networks and if you have children, schools.

    The internet is a great way to research a local area but if in doubt, knock on a few doors. Most people won't mind giving their opinions about a particular street or area.

    Finally, try to stop looking at your bricks and mortar as an 'investment opportunity'.

    For the vast majority of people, our property is our home. If you can make thousands after a few years - great - but if not, surely the best thing about being a home owner is being able to enjoy a happy and peaceful life.

    C4 The Storm And The Crash

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    About 15 minutes before the end, one of the chaps comments to camera stood out to me.

    Obviously discussing the stock exchange, however it was when he said ".. by '87 a huge bubble had developed and it was inevitable that there were no buyers left..... and everyone rushed for the door at the same time and panic set in"

    Perhaps one of the most simplest lessons in economic markets, yet one which a lot of people may re-learn once again.

    C4 The Storm And The Crash

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    About 15 minutes before the end, one of the chaps comments to camera stood out to me.

    Obviously discussing the stock exchange, however it was when he said ".. by '87 a huge bubble had developed and it was inevitable that there were no buyers left and everyone rushed for the door at the same time and panic set in"

    Surely a quotation which could possibly be uttered yet again on another episode in perhaps a couple of years or so. Do we ever learn ??

    'tonight With Trevor Mcdonald' Friday 13th May

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    Noticed there's a must see edition of the Trevor McDonald programme at 8pm this coming Friday 13th May, all about our friend Rosie Millard. Aparently experts will advise her on how to rein in her spending..... could be interesting as I don't envy their task!!

    The programme also investigates the wider issues of debt amongst the middle classes.... so once they've mentioned 'BTL' and 'MEW', I wonder what they'll do with the remaining 10 minutes of the programme??! :lol:

    Back To The Old Paradigm?

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    Just spotted someting towards the end of zzg's quote which I had to re-read. It was a comment made by Richard Donnell of Savills Estate Agents, which appears to me to be a veiled dig at amateur BTL landlords.

    This brought to mind the Glasgow Harbour development (by Cala Homes I think) where I recall that only around only 30% were OO.

    Donnell said: “There are always risks if you buy in an urban regeneration area where there is a lot of new building. Professional investors tend to avoid these areas because the supply of property keeps a lid on prices and rents.â€

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