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House Price Crash Forum


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About onlybone1

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  1. Good post. I have now reached the same conclusion about buying and after 5 years on HPC have buckled and given in, my thoughts on how things will pan out may help you. I think house prices in general terms will fall steadily from here maybe 10% to 20%, 30% as an absolute outside chance. However, this may not apply to the 1 HOUSE you are after in the 1 AREA you want. The large falls will generally be in the shitty properties you wouldn't want anyway. With the good stuff a vendor who is not a forced seller can take what they think it is worth, there may be negotiation of 5% to 10% depending how bad things get, however as long as people are still buying there is a market however thin that may be. Unless you were trying to buy at the bottom last time (I was in Mar/Apr 2009) and read my posts regarding this experience, it is like catching a falling knife, loads of luck required. You will not catch you perfect house at the bottom, just like buying shares. Don't forget people have seen it once, and it wasn't that scary, the world did not end. Life goes on, the same will happen again this time round, with that added experience. The indices are becoming increasingly detached from reality, the more volatile they become the harder it becomes for buyers, sellers, lenders and EAs, but time marches on. If the market takes a serious downturn again, vendors will not sell at stupid prices, builders will stop building, we will be back to 2009 stock levels again. There are very few forced sellers. Interest rates will stay lowish at 2-3% max for at least the next 3 to 5 years. Once I have exchanged on this property I will relay my experience in detail to help others.
  2. Added my two penneth worth Housing Ponzi Scheme - Crime of the Century It is the crime of the century the current state of the housing bubble and the politicians, policymakers and bankers that are all responsible for this mess that we are now all supposedly in together! Careful, responsible savers were never part of this greedy deck of cards which is now about to fall around our ears. Cameron understands that we cannot expect to create wealth out of thin air (housing inflation)disguised as wealth and be a credible world economy. The only problem now is nonone wants to look at this very serious problem in the hope it will go away. Printing money will not work. The buffoon that was Brown played a large hand in this, where is he now to pick up the pieces. Interestingly, Blair is still building his property empire. Unbelievable!!!!!! Probable a bit too contentious for these media types but you never know!!!!!
  3. Agree with most of the comments made. We are in a static market, it is neither rising nor falling. The only way this will change will be a trigger event, it may be the budget but I am doubtful on that. The only way for prices to fall is more forced sellers. This could either be they can longer afford to service the interest on the loan, very little pressure in this direction currently or a huge turn in sentiment that prices will fall continuously for a prolonged period. The Nationwide and Halifax may well turn negative in the next few months. However, good weather and the world cup will certainly divert attention in the short term. If you are buying now, and I am trying. You need to eek out motivated sellers, they are few and far between. Many houses have been up for sale for many months and years in some cases. There will come a point where these people need to move there lives on, just as we all need to. Steer well clear of the kite flyers, just ask the estate agent searching questions and if you don't get the right answers about the vendor don't even view the property. I am mainly looking at no upward chain purchases or downsizers who cannot wait forever. I have not found the right house at the right price just as many vendors have not found the right buyer with the right funds, the stand off continues. The positive factors are there are loads more new builds flooding the market and there will be no more stimulus for house prices, interest rates may not rise but they certainly won't fall either and there will be no more stamp duty hand outs.
  4. I cannot believe what is happening with the economy. I have just sent this letter to the Bank of England. I know it won't do anything, but it makes me feel better. Bank of England Threadneedle St London EC2R 8AH Spectacular mismanagement Today I see that RPI has reached the heady heights of 5.3%, Sterling is getting hammered, base rates are 0.5%, 10 year gilts 3.75%, the best savings rates are 3%, UK debts stand at anything from £ 1trillion to £2 trillion depending upon who you talk to (amazingly no one knows) annuity rates are disgracefully low and stock market volatility has gone off the charts. Gold is reaching all time highs. Commercial property prices are wobbling again. What is going on? Oh and guess what residential property prices are supposedly rising, which is great news for future generations. WAKE UP!! This madness has to stop now. The gallows are too good for the policymakers responsible for this shambles, why is no one being held accountable for the horrific state of the economy. I see in Iceland they are pursuing rogue bankers and politicians are getting short shrift. An obscene pension, after dinner speaking and/or a non exec role is punishment enough in the UK. What a disgrace. Base rates have to rise to at least send the message that loose monetary policy is not going to continue ad infinitum. Never has there been such reward for irresponsible borrowing at the expense of the prudent. Just to add insult to injury why are markets calling the shots on monetary policy around the globe? Any monkey with a screen and keyboard can take advantage of the telegraphed decisions of current governments. The taxpayer is getting completely shafted. So what are you going to do Mervyn? Write another letter saying RPI is a temporary blip, perhaps print a bit more cash because the cupboard is bare, keep base rates low to maintain the illusion of property wealth, talk about a global problem that needs a global response and that we are only a ‘iddy widdy little cog’ in the hugely powerful global engine. I am only the governor of the Bank of England what can I do? Shall we try and be truthful just for a change, let’s at least admit we have spent far too much both privately and publicly. Get all the figures on the table for everyone to see. The root cause of the problem has been base rates too low for too long. The irresponsible borrowers and lenders have not been penalised they are laughing at the taxpayers expense. Get base rates up, people will save more and banks will have real savers cash to lend, this will take a long time. There will be many individuals exposed on the road back to equilibrium but these charlatans and speculators know who they are and should never have been lent all this money in the first place at the expense of the majority. Some people will always be a bad risk. Please get round to Downing street at your earliest convenience and provide some hard facts to Dave, Nick and George to at least give them a chance of saving what little we have left of this dysfunctional economy. You have many late nights ahead of you and remember being good at your job doesn’t necessarily mean you will be popular, a point sadly lost on those individuals in the positions of power that could have prevented this mess if they took their jobs and responsibilities seriously. Get it sorted, please.
  5. There will now be some very nervous people out there who are overly relient on government support, the rug will gradually be pulled from under them. This will moderate behaviour for sure and will impact house sales in the short term. How hard Cameron actually is will be interesting to see, I think he has built up some serious venom against labour and the mess they have left behind. I cannot see him having much sympathy for the wasters in our society. I just hope he has the balls to see thru what has to be done for the good of the country over the long term. I agree with other posters he has to open pandoras box on our debt within the first 4 to 6 weeks for all to see. No wonder Brown has left politics, he has left a huge steaming turd in both number 10 & 11 Downing St, that has to be a first for any politician.
  6. Newport Pagnell and Stony Stratford, maybe Sherington.
  7. I thought I would update you on my recent experience and events on trying to buy a property. I have been trying to seriously buy as soon as interest rates dropped to 0.5%, it was obvious this would support house prices in the short term and provide a boost. My first attempt at buying went to draft contracts and I was in a contract race to secure property, the vendor then gazumped me asking for an extra £10K this would have gone over the 250k threshold, very silly and I pulled out. This was first quarter 09! Be very wary of multi agent sales, they are a nightmare for competing offers, especially in this market. My 2nd attempt at purchase again went to draft contract stage and the vendor just changed there mind and decided not to sell for personal reasons and they could not find anything to buy. Total spend so far on aborted purchases, surveys, solicitors, valuations is £1600. What a ridiculous system!!!!! Currently there has been only a marginal increase in supply in my area and in the specific towns I want to buy there are literally only a dozen or so houses to choose from and only 1 or 2 I would consider offering on, lots of tat sitting around. There is definately seriously overvaluing by estate agents to secure the few instructions they get, anything half decent is going STC in 4 to 6 weeks, whether they complete or not is another matter. Activity has dropped off a cliff in the last 2 to 3 weeks. EAs must be really struggling as sales volumes must be dangerously low. I think the majority of vendors don't HAVE to sell, they are kite flyers. The low interest rate and government support is maintaining the status quo for the time being. The light on the horizon is once again the general deterioration in the worlds financial stability and there is no doubt our standard of living will take a big dive in the next 5 years, this must impact on house prices. I think interest rates will stay low for years to come and I don't buy the fact that markets will force them to rise, mortgage finance rates, bank base rates and gilt rates are not as closely correlated as they once were. Keeping people in their homes is priority number 1. There will have to be a catalyst for the next downleg, this could be a conservative government making the quick and severe cuts necessary but I am not holding my breath. I am peed off my savings are earning 3% at best, for most people it is too risky to speculate on gold & currencies etc, the risks are increasing each day and the corruption in financial markets is rife. For home owners they are paying sod all on mortgage payments which will last for at least 2 to 3 years. The current market for buyers is worse than March 09 as the delusion about the economy, home ownership, misplaced confidence in government has gone off the charts! Any comments?
  8. I keep a track of houses for sale in a certain area (Milton Keynes) and the % that have SSTC. This fell to an all time low of 22.4% in April 09, went up to 35.9% in November 09 and is now falling again back to 29.1% today. Seeing loads more houses come to market in last couple of weeks. I expect this figure to continue to fall. It is a very good leading indicator of prices firming/declining.
  9. Hard evidence of how crazy the whole game is. Shows it all in black and white for a particular postcode. Madness can't go on for ever.
  10. Have a look at this. Shows the marketing of a property over the last couple of years on rightmove with various agents and prices, seems to bring in 2007. Just shows how deluded sellers are and how many properties never sell. Enjoy.
  11. Mal Volio - agree war of attrition. As you say the drop in interest on savings has increased pressure, savings rates should be at least 5%, I would then be comfortable with current situation. However, I feel it is coming to an end, maybe a few more months of delusion but then the truth will out!
  12. Looking for a house in the Milton Keynes area just a few recent obseravtions. I believe if you want to buy a house you have to be out looking, the house market is very regional and if you want a real feel for your area you need to get out there and view some properties. I am not making offers unless I really want a property and only then after I have crunched all my figures. It actually makes me feel better looking at the prices these vendors are asking and the condition of the property, it brings it home how unsustainable it all really is. Had long discussion with agent today, actually very knowledgeable on wider economy and implications for house prices. He is branch manager and has loads of experience. Basically, vendors are overpricing again in the last month or so, but buyers and surveyors are having none of it, only houses in good condition at a reasonable price are selling. More deluded sellers trying to sell at top prices. These don't even get viewings. Their own stock of houses to sell at start of the year was 85 houses, now it is 35. Sold 50 houses in 10 months, I suppose 5 a month on average is reasonable. Quite a few of these yet to complete in recent months though. Surveyors are still downvaluing where a property is pants and obviously overpriced. He also believes we are heading for big problems after March in the run up to the election. Confused signals coming out from all the recent house price related surveys or commentators which is confusing vendors and buyers. He believed we are in a totally false market, likes of which he has never seen (he must be at least 45+). Keep hearing vendor needs to achieve a certain price, so they price 5 or 10k above this figure. There is pressure on agents to get a property on the books so are putting on the market at deluded price the vendor wants to hear, over pricing in a big way. Interesting times! Anyone else viewing houses at the moment and what is your opinion?
  13. At least the US has falling house prices, can't have increasing unemployment and rising house prices, shall we tell Gordon?
  14. Interesting stuff. Unfortunatley the risk for everyone who owns property or who wants to own has gone way beyond common sense. The risk of further price volatility is the highest it has ever been (property is now behaving like stock markets!), interest rate risk is huge and job insecurity for all has gone off the scale. It really is a very unpleasant set of circumstances for the majority. There will be a few winners, but way more losers and this should never be the case with what is in reality just shelter!! I agree with Dr Bubb I have now really had enough of being a pawn between politicians and bankers, with my savings getting screwed and trying to work out which currency is best, should I buy gold etc, it is completely nuts trying to position myself accordingly. The system is well and truly screwed and middle earners and savers are paying for this big time. I am debt free and instead of buying a nice house with a 50% deposit and mortgage of 3 times salary I woudl rather buy a 2 bed flat and canal boat. I would still be debt free and have no exposure to this continuing madness (the flat would be the lowest exposure possible). At least the canal boat gives you freedom!
  15. The recent rises in all the hpi indicators will obviously cause concern amongst those sitting out the UKs housing merry go round, however I actually believe this is ultimately good news. 1. I think it is likely the rises are slowing and the market is looking way more sticky now and the next 3 to 4 months will prove key. 2. The UK is starting to look like a basket case amongst developed nations, our debt levels are much higher than most, we have pumped in the most and yet still no growth, would you buy UK government bonds? Tiny Blair will not be EU president, thank god, I get a feeling we are not doing well in the overseas political popularity stakes. How can you have no growth and rising house prices, other countries must question what the hell is going on in basket Britain? US house prices are stabilising but they have taken the medicine, their house prices have plummeted and they are starting to see growth. That seems logical to me. 3. Yes some have houses have sold, but I know from personal experience and I have looked at loads of houses and put in semi-reasonable offers so have been seriously active in the market, however these sales were agreed 3 to 6 months ago, they have still not completed!! Sales volumes are low. 4. I know of at least 6 people who will be putting there house on the market in the spring, more supply can only push prices one way. 5. If we have 2-3 months of house price falls in the stats, vendors will start to worry big time that this is the second big leg down. Lets face there nerves will not be able to stand it. 6. I work in finance and have friends that work in high st banking and IT, I'm afraid conditions now are as bad as they have been in the last 2 years. We are all still treading water, like most people I suspect. 7. All those 300k households who have been saved from reposession, do you think there circumstances have improved, highly unlikley, time is running out. They have only accrued extra debt against there property during this bailout period which won't last. 8. Xmas will be ok, but not great. 9. Stock market very volatile and nervous, certainly run out of steam. 10. Unemployment still rising. 11. From my experience the houses 250k+ are trying to be shifted by boomers downsizing, unfortunately many of these are not selling, the fundamentals aren't there to support this exit strategy! 12. There are still some desperate sellers out there and if it is right for you a 2004 price would not be a disaster, but you have to stick to your guns, do your research and put in offers around these price levels. If they are rejected so be it, you will have a second chance in the next 6 to 12 months. 13. The recent rises is a trap for vendors and the economy at large. The US has stopped buying treasuries, they are prepared to see if the economy gains traction on it's own. We will have to play the same game. Unfortunately, there will be no traction, conditions are still terrible out there for the majority. Don't forget 50% tax is coming in next April. It really will be an interesting 6 months. Hope that helps to keep your chins up!
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