THE BAILIFF

Current prices: HBOS 200p Lloyds 277p Buy 1000 HBOS = £2000 Sell 830 Lloyds = £2299 15% profit! OR IS IT? Is it just possible this deal won’t go through?

NOW 258p

RNS Number : 4993W HBOS PLC 11 June 2008  HBOS plc Further to its statement dated 1 June 2008, HBOS confirms that its fully underwritten rights issue is proceeding according to plan and that it will issue a Prospectus and detailed Trading Update week beginning 16th June 2008. Current trading and specifically mortgage arrears performance, is in line with the Group's expectations. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange END MSCFBMITMMTBBFP

http://www.reutersrealestate.com/monitor/story/85685 UK lenders tighten valuation criteria on new homes Wed 11 Jun, 2008 Reuters By William Kemble-Diaz LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s mortgage banks and surveyors are set to close a loophole that has helped some property developers to sell more homes and bump up profits by giving discounts and withholding that information from lenders. The move could pile pressure on the country’s beleaguered housebuilders in the wake of a downturn that has exposed these sharp practices on newly built homes, and could make a mockery of government housebuilding targets. “Some lenders have been concerned that the valuation and conveyancing processes do not always capture discounts and other incentives that buyers may be able to negotiate with developers when purchasing newly built property,” the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said in a statement. “This may mean that, in some instances, lenders might unintentionally offer a mortgage based on a valuation of a property that is higher than the true price paid for it, said the CML, whose members account for 98 percent of British mortgage loans. The industry body did not say how many existing mortgage agreements were distorted by undisclosed developer discounts, which had left buyers of the newly built properties at a greater risk of negative equity as house prices tumbled. The average cost of a UK home has fallen by 8 percent since prices peaked in August, according to the country’s biggest mortgage lender HBOS (HBOS.L: Quote, Profile, Research). Anecdotal evidence and economist forecasts suggest the downturn is still in its early stages. The CML said lenders from Sept. 1 will require builders of new, converted or renovated properties to disclose any buyer incentives so that mortgage offers are based on a reliable valuation of the property. The move could further reduce the availability of mortgage finance and exacerbate the country’s housing downturn, with the CML last month forecasting a 21 percent drop in gross mortgage lending in 2008 compared with 2007. TARGETS It could also hit the country’s leading homebuilders, whose shares registered double-digit percentage falls on Wednesday, and undermine government efforts to address housing shortages. Double click [iD:nBNG242793] for separate story on share falls. “We believe that new dwelling completions in England could fall from 175,000 last year to 135,000 by end-2009,” said property economist Seema Shah of Capital Economics, drawing a sharp contrast with the government’s target of 212,000 new homes per year. “If anything, however, there is a chance that the fall in new housing supply may be even greater than this,” she said. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, a key trade body that represents many of the conveyancers and valuers who act on behalf of banks in property transactions, said it would help reinforce the CML’s changes by amending its rule book. “Buyer, lenders and valuers have all been victims of the non-disclosure of incentives by developers with many buyers left with a mortgage worth more than the property’s real value,” RICS spokesman Barry Hall said in a separate statement. (Reporting by William Kemble-Diaz; Editing by Sue Thomas/Richard Hubbard)

Hope someone can help here. I been thinking that we should be looking at "Land Prices" in conjunction with "House Prices" Now unless I am missing something here the price of any house must equal Cost of Land + Cost to Build said House + Profit for Builder. For example if a builder buys a plot of land for say £100k and then spends £100k on building and sells the house for £250k that would make him £50k……… But what if that house is not worth £250k anymore (Due to falls we all know are taking place) but only £150k …. For him to make the same £50k then he would have to get the Land for free! My thinking is that a house is worth what it cost to build and the premium that they have been changing hands at is the theoretical “Price of Land” and therefore why are we not looking at the “Land Price” Has anyone got any data on Land Prices?

If 50% drop is only "Market correction" what the f##k happens if we get a crash?

Oanda is I think the only company to trade 24/7 forex - pound/usd now is 1.9607/17 https://fxtrade.oanda.com/

It's going down - Just missing BTLers / EAs trying to run up while it going down!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7202121.stm Five million people, or one in 10 adults, spend more than they earn on a monthly basis, according to financial comparison website Uswitch. The website said a further fifth of adults have no spare money left at the end of the month. Half of those living beyond their means rely on overdrafts and credit cards to plug the gap, it said. The findings come amidst widespread concerns that higher debts may push more people into insolvency this year. 'Spendemic' Researchers spoke to 4,200 adults across the UK, and analysed Office for National Statistics (ONS) data on income and expenditure. AVERAGE MONTHLY SPEND Income: £2,607 Essential items: £1,229 Non-essential items: £865 Debt repayments: £356 Surplus: £157 Source: Uswitch/ONS Uswitch concludes the UK is in the grip of a "spendemic" which risks spiralling out of control. It found that the average consumer has £157 left at the end of the month after their normal expenditure. The analysis revealed that spending on non-essential items has risen 65% over the past decade, outpacing growth in both average net earnings, and essential living costs, which rose by 48% and 43% respectively over the same period. According to the Uswitch findings, the area of non-essential spending showing the biggest growth is tourism. Consumers need to start paying serious attention to their spending habits Ann Robinson, Uswitch Q&A: How to manage debt The amount spent on holidays has more than doubled between 1997 and 2007 to reach £1,068 a year. Spending on other forms of recreation and culture rose by 76% over the same period to just over £250 a month. Squeeze Uswitch said average debt repayments jumped from £174 in 1997 to £356 in 2007, an increase of 104%. At the same time, the number of credit cards issued has almost doubled from 36 million to 71 million. "Britain is suffering from a bad case of affluenza," said Uswitch director of consumer policy Ann Robinson. "It's clear that our salaries can't keep up with our 'Hello' lifestyles. "With the credit crunch beginning to bite, consumers need to start paying serious attention to their spending habits," she added. Higher mortgage costs and energy bills are continuing to squeeze household income. The accountancy firm Grant Thornton has already warned that excessive spending this past Christmas would be the final straw for many people. It predicted that 28,000 people would declare themselves insolvent in the first three months of this year, with the total eventually reaching 120,000 for the whole of 2008.

I have been out today on my work as Debt Collector and Bailiff - nothing new there (and yes my work load is going up with more and more people running into financial difficulties but that’s another story) Anyway I thought I would count the number of “For Sale” boards within my local area while also seeing how many of those have now got “Sold” over the board. Well of the 96 “For Sale” boards only 3 had “Sold” on them. I’m sure it wasn’t that kind of ratio a couple of months back – Is this yet another indication that the HPC is not only on but could even be far worse than the 15% - 20% that most on here seem to believe.

I have re-looked at the "arb" and I must say there is a problem... as best I can see IG price is on the month fig while Spreadfair is 3 month ave ie JUNE with Spreadfair is ave of apr, may and june while the JUNE price with IG is that of just JUNE Having said all that prices are only going one way.......... DOWN

Thanks Guys... Interesting that there is an arbitrage between IG and Spreadfair - will look to take advantage of that and will open an account at Spreadfair and sell the JUNE 08 @ 188.0 and then buy them with IG @ 186.2 The 2009 and 2010 quotes are much lower than current levels!

House Price Futures Trading I have an account with IG Index and they do trade in the future Halifax ave price: Right now they quote March 08 @ £189.9k - £192.9k bid/ask and JUNE 08 @ £182.6k - £186.2k The ave house price from Halifax in DEC 07 was £197k so based on the middle of the quotes then prices are trading down £5.6k ( 2.8% ) for MARCH and £12.6k ( 6.4% ) for JUNE Does anyone have any access to any other house price future quotes? Would be nice to see quotes for one or two years forward. THE BAILIFF