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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by wren

  1. No. You need to value gold against real things like houses, a month's average wage or a share of the DOW index of companies. The nominal price in paper currencies is useless for valuation. Gold/DOW is still over 9 and will drop below 2. An average UK house still costs over 230 ounces and will drop to 100 or less.
  2. In Finland it is illegal to buy more than 3 sofas in one month. By the third sofa shop assistants are giving them leery looks and if they ask for a fourth it's a case of "sorry, mate, you've had enough already". The government is always talking about increasing sofa taxes for the public good and maybe decreasing the monthly quota to two (which they never actually do as the tax revenues are so good).
  3. Yeah, what's happened to the "Gold back below 800 Dollars" threads? It's now USD 1117. That's still less than one third of a month's average salary though. When it gets to two thirds it could be time to talk of bubble territory. Nowhere near yet.
  4. If Labour wins the election... well, it's sometimes said that people get the government that they deserve. Not that I expect the Tories to be much better. Don't the general population realise how bad the UK economy and finances are? Lack of energy policy means there could be rolling blackouts in a few years time.
  5. One way is to leave it to the bond markets. Greece would be forced cut spending as it might get no more loans. Even the USA has difficulty getting foreign loans now. It looks like a lot of US Treasuries are being monetized on the quiet (= printy, printy).
  6. Sterling has just hit a new record low against gold. It now costs 731.89 to buy one ounce of gold.
  7. But older people consume less and do less thereby reducing demand for labour (overall, demand for different types of labour vary, of course). How do you reconcile that?
  8. And Holmes was a cocaine addict and what's worse... played the violin.
  9. Apparently taxi drivers can be excellent bellwethers of the economy and changes in society. Anybody got any good, recent taxi driver anecdotes?
  10. A piece of good news for a change. Is there somebody hiding in the government who is actually reasonably smart and competent? This should boost research.
  11. This is a good point which is not often mentioned. Massive government borrowing can outcompete private sector, e.g. business borrowing. Presumably competition should push up interest rates though? Maybe the private sector is so in the gutter that they don't want to borrow, though.
  12. Geneva is not a very large city. 200 000 or so? An article about this a few weeks ago pointed out serious problems such as limited suitable housing and the international school is massively overbooked. It said few would be able to move there with families. I'm sure Dubai has plenty of space for them though.
  13. Low interest rates allowed the asset bubbles to inflate in the first place. There was high inflation but only in certain asset classes, e.g. property. It's akin to saying "if we hadn't devalued the currency so much, we'd be able to devalue it more now". They want to have their cake and to eat it. Many economists are either charlatans or plain lacking in intelligence.
  14. There's also GoldMoney which provides a similar service where you buy real physical gold, silver or platinum. You can take delivery if you want but the main idea, like with BV, is that it sits in a vault and at some later date you sell it for cash. I believe that British Britannias are also exempt from CGT in the UK.
  15. About 3 or 4 years ago on a Finnish expat board somebody was talking about going into the airline business. I told them that it would be a sunset business due to peak oil. I don't like to be the bringer of bad news but I try to warn people. I also suggested buying gold and silver for secure savings, but that is getting off topic
  16. In Finland when employees take a summer holiday they get more pay than other months. This is part of the whole year's salary. Quite sensible really.
  17. Peak oil will. There is no way the whole populations of China and India can reach West European, let alone American, standards of consumption. There simply are not sufficient resources in the world to do it.
  18. Go to my local supermarket and try to pay in pounds sterling.
  19. The East London housing problem was made more severe by the large number of immigrants, many from Eastern Europe, especially the Baltic States. A great book: The People of the Abyss
  20. Consider the world wars. It's mostly younger men who did the fighting and dying. It could be said that they were betrayed by their elders, especially in the First World War. So be realistic. But it is true that in many ways many of the boomers have had an easier time and the house price bubble is turning the screws on young adults. But fear not: the bubble has begun to burst as it must. Unfortunately it takes 5 or 6 years to burst, it doesn't all happen in only 2 or 3 years.
  21. The cost of an ounce of gold has been steadily rising for the last 8 or 9 years. It was 200 pounds an ounce now is over 700 pounds. A similar trend in all paper currencies. The fundamentals for gold have not changed, if anything they are stronger than ever in the last 10 years of this gold bull market. The gold price in the short term is very volatile so if you know you will need cash within 12 months I wouldn't put it all into gold. Longer than 12 months though the chances are that it will continue to go up in pounds sterling, but there is no need to put all your savings into one asset. You can split savings with some percentage in gold which you feel comfortable with. The only way this bull market can end is if paper currencies become seriously more attractive. This would need positive real (as opposed to nominal) interest rates of at least 2 to 3 % for 6 months or more. There is no sign of interest rates going up anywhere near enough in the short to medium term (they daren't increase them sufficiently drastically). As inflation increases real interest rates go more negative making cash less attractive.
  22. And the Moors from the Barbary coast. Tens of thousands at least were nabbed on English coastlines and taken as slaves.
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