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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by wren

  1. Well, let's see what happens. Over the last couple of years I've been increasingly getting the impresson that there is a bubble mentality associated with Chindia. Remember raw numbers of people don't guarantee prosperity. China will experience regional famine affecting tens of millions before North America and Europe. This could happen within ten years.
  2. I don't particularly disagree with what you've said. However, what I said is that there will not be enough new demand in Asia to fully replace the lost demand in the West. So companies (some, not all, of course) will experience a net loss of demand.
  3. What about old people retiring? Is the number of working-age people still static or is it dropping? In Finland now, more people retire each year than reach working age. This will continue for 20 years.
  4. It struck me that it sounds like cars eating themselves. Noodle said my comment was untrue but nobody has come along to argue further against it. Anybody? I'm willing to be dissuaded if the arguments are good enough.
  5. The BullionVault chart says GBP 749.23 per ounce of gold now. Would anyone like marmalade with their sterling?
  6. That would help the Germans and others who export. The euro was as low as USD 0.86 when it was fairly new.
  7. Who is this bloke, Riley, anyway? (And I remember power cuts in the Winter of Discontent. Being a little boy, I thought it was quite fun.)
  8. Companies which offshore jobs are destroying their customer base. There won't be enough middle-class Asians to fully replace them. It is a sort of autocannibalism.
  9. Just look at one annual number. Here in Finland prices dipped a bit but are now bouncing. As prices started to drop the media were spinning like a gyroscope - new builds prices down, but old build prices up slightly, blah blah. I just looked at the national statistics office annual number: down one year, down a second year (not massive drops though). That's the trend even though prices are possibly increasing right now and there is big regional variation here in Finland too. Ignore the noise and look at annual figures for the trend. Then sit back and be patient - it takes several years.
  10. So some are classed as disabled and are crooks? And those on unemployments benefits who can afford to go to the pub often get their drinking money from crime? Sounds plausible. If the police really cracked down on crime in your area it could, though, end up being bad for your pub business.
  11. Ah yes, work ethic. Due to physical resource limitations people will have to consume less, so in practice will have to work less. Maybe those who work less and consume less are to be commended. But bashing benefits scroungers is more fun and deflects attention from more fundamental issues.
  12. They don't mind a dip, it's a crash they're scared of. Maybe it'll be a long, drawn out, Japanese-style crash.
  13. That's cruel. Economics departments need to be excepted. Most economists are out of touch with the real physical world.
  14. Maybe the ones who are not criminals cannot afford to drink in pubs so often, or don't drink much anyway. Just that you may see a somewhat unrepresentative sample.
  15. So what line of business are you in? Do you think that most of the unemployed are criminals?
  16. Not totally illegal now - regarded as more of a soft piece of furniture these days. It's said still to be one of the major social problems but I reckon it's mostly the tax revenues that they are really interested in. Armchair sociologists for you. Now hatstands are a different matter entirely.
  17. In the '20s they were completely prohibited: sofabition (sohvakielto in Finnish). People started learning how to make them themselves and hid them from the authorities in barns and saunas. Sociologists estimate that sofa production and use actually increased threefold during the prohibition era. Some people still make their own as a hangover from the old sofabition days, learnt from grandparents. It's still illegal to make them without a licence but it doesn't stop some people. I once knew a student of analytical chemistry who made his own at home in his very small student flat.
  18. It would give latecomers a better chance to take cover. I see this more as protection now than anything else.
  19. Nice to hear a bit of good news. Good luck!
  20. Down is up. Better than expected. Doubleplus good.
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