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wren

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Everything posted by wren

  1. Maybe they suspect they may not be payed back at all. If the OO goes into negative equity it's possible it will never be payed back. Housing benefit in a different guise.
  2. Yes. I think the financial and economic crisis would have happened anyway due to all the financial bubbles. But oil production was flat for a few years while demand increased from Asia. So inevitably the price went up, for a few months in 2008 over $100. Then the crisis really began in autumn 2008. So I think the timing was due to the high all price which was caused by the inability to ramp up demand as the oil price rose. The low oil price after the price crash of 2008 to early 2009 caused many oil projects to be suspended or cancelled. So production cannot be ramped up quickly and the price has crept up again to over $80. And remember that production is always running just to keep up with depletion of existing wells. That graph may not be far off the mark. If so, we are where the blue line turns red and the "gap" becomes increasingly significant. I found the comment about a run from paper assets to real assets interesting.
  3. This is an important, new, general article from The Oil Drum. Some snippets about the financial side: That article is a summary of a whole 55-page pdf linked at the top of the article. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6309 The author posted this graph in the comments.
  4. At times last year he wasn't very bullish about gold short term (thinking of the USD price).
  5. He claimed not to use his knowledge of cycles to make money for himself. He felt that it would be wrong.
  6. Alfred Nobel made no provision for any Nobel Prize in economics. It's from the Central Bank of Sweden. Not a real Nobel Prize.
  7. Don't the little children watch telly at this time on a Saturday morning?
  8. Australia's main problem is water supplies. Apart from that economically its future looks pretty good compared to much of the world, what with masses of mineral and energy resources and a small population.
  9. It goes in cycles. Basically gold does well when most other things are doing badly. Gold is something of a last resort. This gold bull market could be ended quite simply: just increase interest rates on cash enough to make cash more attractive. At present there is no sign that the major central banks will do that. The cost of UK houses is plummeting when measured in ounces of gold. I think it will go to 120 ounces with 100 ounces quite possible.
  10. On a per gramme basis sovereigns are among the cheapest gold you can buy. Also the most widely known bullion coin, so easy to sell.
  11. in the UK sovereigns and Britannias are not subject to CGT as they are classed as legal tender coins.
  12. So often this idea that the grass is greener across the fence. Well, when it comes to Britain it is true, Britain is greener... thanks to the rain. I prefer the climate in Finland. Proper winter with snow. At other times of the year less rain than Britain.
  13. And how many are of working age? 40 million?
  14. Fusion is 40 years away. Fusion is always 40 years away.
  15. Canadian economist Jeff Rubin agrees ("You know, the world's not running out of oil") but disagrees about cheap oil. Here is a good talk he gave.
  16. That'll be the gold bulls then. The ones with real money (physical gold only, not paper gold).
  17. The yuan renminbi is not internationally generally accepted as payment. The Chinese are issuing bonds in South East Asia in order to try to create an international market for the yuan. The Chinese need US dollars to pay the Australians etc. for the raw materials and energy which they import (China a few years ago became a net importer of oil).
  18. I got to page 3 and thought this is a good thread, what with Pluto posting again. Then I saw that it is over 2 years old. Anyway house prices have dropped a lot in the meantime with plenty of room to drop further.
  19. Is that from the painter Lowry? I first read it as Low-rian and wondered whether such a district name really exists.
  20. House prices are dropping nicely in hard currency:
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